Friday 16th sept

gazza1

FUMBO JUMBO 10/1 3.05
Is a very progressive sort and was very unlucky lto when going down by a neck in a class 3. Is 3lbs higher here but drops down to class 4 and trainer is 3 from 4 at the track with 3yr olds.

The other one i like is THEOS WELL 7/1 3.10 listowel
With the rest of the field either unproven over the distance or ground i think the selection could spring a bit of a suprise. Winters is also back among the winners and is 2-3 at the track.
GL2A

Francie Barrett

Bubbly Bellini in the 2:35, well in on ratings I think. Big bet for me. 17/2.

mick malones mauser

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Bubbly Bellini in the 2:35, well in on ratings I think. Big bet for me. 17/2.

Been following him myself
Backed him last twice,ran well and faded

Not backing him today so he is a sure fire winner:)

Copper_pipe

Bit of a gamble in the 1st at Listowel.

Elusive john was 80/1 and into 8/1 in places

BorneTobyWilde

Volunteer Point 18-1 4.25

Has been unlucky in running last three races. It will run better than this price.
I like it for a win here

2pts win 18-1 LB

Peintre Celebre

Madness backing at that price Francie when it was 12s last night

BorneTobyWilde

Chillie BIllie 28-1 2.35

Ran 5 lengths off a place here 3 days ago on the c&d . On bottom weight today and 3rd in this last year.

I like it for a place at 28-1 PP

1PT EW

Imhof Tank

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Madness backing at that price Francie when it was 12s last night

Final Furlong betting special podcast touched on this whole issue of what appear to be "bad value prices" on the day of the race when compared with overnight prices. Kevin Blake was basically saying the overnight prices give a false value picture because generally you cant get on.

So if that 12/1 last night was never really available to any kind of decent money but they will lay you a good cash bet in an office at 17/2 today, then who is to say the 17/2 isn't value.

Peintre Celebre

Imhof Tank wrote: »

Final Furlong betting special podcast touched on this whole issue of what appear to be "bad value prices" on the day of the race when compared with overnight prices. Kevin Blake was basically saying the overnight prices give a false value picture because generally you cant get on.

So if that 12/1 last night was never really available to any kind of decent money but they will lay you a good cash bet in an office at 17/2 today, then who is to say the 17/2 isn't value.

It all depends, I know what price I'll back a horse at and if I can't get it I won't back it.

Also that 12/1 was widely available. I'd only take that point if it was the likes of BF sportsbook who won't lay more than about 25 to even an unrestricted account. There's ways around restricted accounts, if several go a certain price you should be able to get on

Peintre Celebre

It's fine for him too being layed 1k a bet with Lads. Can't get a quid myself

Imhof Tank

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

It all depends, I know what price I'll back a horse at and if I can't get it I won't back it.

That's fair enough, but then a bigger price the night before should really be irrelevant no?

You/ Francie could have priced that one today up at 5s, the 17/2 would still be value regardless of the 12s overnight

Imhof Tank

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

It's fine for him too being layed 1k a bet with Lads. Can't get a quid myself

Not sure where you're located but anyone can have a grand on in Dublin - cash bets spread around 4 or 5 shops.

Yes, you may not get the whole wedge on at the top advertised price but that's the tax you pay for being a higher roller.

Peintre Celebre

Imhof Tank wrote: »

That's fair enough, but then a bigger price the night before should really be irrelevant no?

You/ Francie could have priced that one today up at 5s, the 17/2 would still be value regardless of the 12s overnight

That's a fair point price is subjective. That said it's very rare that there's a huge difference between what I want and what's available I usually have it close enough. Every so often someone might go 16s on a 10s etc

Peintre Celebre

Imhof Tank wrote: »

Not sure where you're located but anyone can have a grand on in Dublin - cash bets spread around 4 or 5 shops.

Yes, you may not get the whole wedge on at the top advertised price but that's the tax you pay for being a higher roller.

Max would usually be about 200. About 5% of my bets would be in shop powers or boyles usually well behind pricing up and often far lower not a point or two