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Tropical Storm Gaston

  • 24-08-2016 11:34am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    Soon to be a hurricane...is expected to approach major hurricane strength this weekend.

    This looks like it will spend its tropical life as a fish - however there is continued model support for the storm to approach Ireland next weekend as a vigorous extra-tropical low.

    I thought I would open this thread as i expect the media might grab hold of this soon. Expect dooms day predictions from the Express!

    Here is the latest NHC track:

    083603W5_NL_sm.gif

    EC predicted for midnight Friday

    Recm2401.gif

    Certainly one to watch and keep us interested over the next 7-10 days :)


Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,557 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Soon to be a hurricane...is expected to approach major hurricane strength this weekend.

    This looks like it will spend its tropical life as a fish - however there is continued model support for the storm to approach Ireland next weekend as a vigorous extra-tropical low.

    I thought I would open this thread as i expect the media might grab hold of this soon. Expect dooms day predictions from the Express!

    Here is the latest NHC track:

    083603W5_NL_sm.gif

    EC predicted for midnight Friday

    Recm2401.gif

    Certainly one to watch and keep us interested over the next 7-10 days :)

    My guess is that it will fail to reach Ireland's shores much like ex-hurricane Joaquin last October.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Will be keeping an eye on this to see how the models perform, long way off for sure.



    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 24/1500Z 16.1N 39.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
    12H 25/0000Z 17.5N 41.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
    24H 25/1200Z 19.6N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
    36H 26/0000Z 21.9N 45.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
    48H 26/1200Z 24.3N 47.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
    72H 27/1200Z 27.8N 53.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
    96H 28/1200Z 30.5N 55.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
    120H 29/1200Z 32.2N 56.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

    kf8uGIn.png?1

    lVPdyFa.png?1

    G9om9CB.png?1

    J5zn0zE.png?1
    d5LFcV9.png?1


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    A lot of twists and turns could happen during the next 10 days. The present runs show it very quick moving up along the coast.

    16gn3Fw.png?1


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭ Iancar29


    395280.png

    Way off though , so probably wont be anything like this come next week.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The models seem to be all over the place this evening as regard the strength if any Gaston would have on these shores. Gaston is decreasing speed at the moment but set to increase again on Sat to possible Hurricane force, that may influence the models differently again. At this stage looking like any other Low crossing across the Atlantic. Time will tell.

    EhJUHPU.png?1

    L9pHenp.gif?1

    J1s5GfW.png?1

    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

    At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was
    located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 44.4 West. Gaston is
    moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
    motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the
    west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected on
    Saturday.

    Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
    with higher gusts, and some additional weakening is possible today.
    However, some re-strengthening is expected to begin Friday night,
    and Gaston could become a hurricane again on Saturday.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
    from the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    NOAA ESRL Demo -- Tropical Cyclone Tracks from Experimental Forecast & Ensemble Models

    sEpPROc.png?1


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,862 ✭✭✭✭ leahyl


    Yaaay Weathercheck and Iancar return :D Feel like I haven't seen either of you around here for a while! Bring on Gaston!


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,557 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    leahyl wrote: »
    Yaaay Weathercheck and Iancar return :D Feel like I haven't seen either of you around here for a while! Bring on Gaston!

    All we need now is Maquiladora.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭ Storm 10


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    All we need now is Maquiladora.

    Hope he comes back great poster but great to see the lads back


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    According to The National Hurricane Centre looks like strengthening for a few days as shear eases off and passes over warm waters and thereafter strong upper Westerlies with strong sheer and cooler SST's cause a gradual weakening. Models are varied but in general looks like dissipating or heading up towards Iceland IMO at this stage.

    lny8yBz.gif?1

    QKChUZZ.png?1


    This run would have the remnants of Gaston heading up towards Iceland ( High pressure over Ireland keeping it well away ! :) )

    gwCiurD.png?1


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,557 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    According to The National Hurricane Centre looks like strengthening for a few days as shear eases off and passes over warm waters and thereafter strong upper Westerlies with strong sheer and cooler SST's cause a gradual weakening. Models are varied but in general looks like dissipating or heading up towards Iceland IMO at this stage.

    lny8yBz.gif?1

    QKChUZZ.png?1


    This run would have the remnants of Gaston heading up towards Iceland ( High pressure over Ireland keeping it well away ! :) )

    gwCiurD.png?1

    I knew it wouldn't come for Ireland.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭ Iancar29


    Wasn't around back then so nice to read this. http://www.met.ie/news/display.asp?ID=398


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,557 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Wasn't around back then so nice to read this. http://www.met.ie/news/display.asp?ID=398

    I already posted that in the Summer weather thread yesterday Ian :cool:.

    See here:

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=100802763&postcount=2530

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,563 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    leahyl wrote: »
    Yaaay Weathercheck and Iancar return :D Feel like I haven't seen either of you around here for a while! Bring on Gaston!

    winteriscoming.jpg


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 pedigree 6


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Wasn't around back then so nice to read this. http://www.met.ie/news/display.asp?ID=398

    I was in primary school then.
    A big stone humpback bridge got washed away near the school.
    We had to do an extra 4 miles on the bus to get to school.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    The only people that know where Gaston is going to go are Ben and Holly and maybe Nanny Plum!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Present GFS models suggests that Gatson is to die out off the coast of Portugal in a weeks time. The moisture from the storm could come our direction brought by the jet stream. It looks like the first weekend of September could be rather wet but staying warm.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Hurricane Gaston Reforms in Atlantic Ocean. Just keeping an eye on this purely as a learning exercise to observe its lifespan and how well the models perform. So a hurricane with maximum sustained wind speeds of 105 mph atm and possibly strengthening further in the next few days before weakening on its NE'ly track.


    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 281436
    TCDAT2

    HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016
    1100 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2016

    The eye was fairly distinct a few hours ago, but recently it has
    become slightly cloud-filled and the inner-core convection has
    become less symmetrical. The current intensity is set at 90 kt,
    in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB and objective ADT
    values from UW-CIMSS. Assuming the slight degradation of the inner
    core structure to be temporary, a little more strengthening is
    expected within the next 12 to 24 hours. Gaston should remain in a
    low to moderate vertical wind shear environment for the next
    couple of days, which would allow the hurricane to more or less
    maintain its intensity through 36-48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond,
    increasing westerly shear should induce weakening. The official
    intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus IVCN.

    Steering currents are weak, and the initial motion is a
    northwestward drift or 320/4 kt. Gaston's motion is being
    partially blocked by a narrow subtropical ridge, and this scenario
    should continue for the next day or so. The hurricane is expected
    to gradually work its way through the ridge and, in 24 to 48 hours,
    begin to move northeastward and east-northeastward as it enters the
    mid-latitude westerlies. The official forecast is close to a
    consensus of the ECMWF and GFS solutions.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 28/1500Z 30.5N 54.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
    12H 29/0000Z 30.8N 55.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
    24H 29/1200Z 31.2N 55.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
    36H 30/0000Z 31.6N 55.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
    48H 30/1200Z 32.4N 53.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
    72H 31/1200Z 34.3N 49.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
    96H 01/1200Z 36.5N 44.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
    120H 02/1200Z 38.5N 36.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

    $$


    The Gfs would have the remnants of Gaston strengthen around the Bay of Biscay sometime around the 6th , other models predicting it to fizzle out before then.

    f3eQ6MO.png

    GEFS Track predictions

    JZnIJ4O.png?1


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    I see some of quasi-news media have just grabbed hold of this! Using 5 day old information


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,862 ✭✭✭✭ leahyl


    I see some of quasi-news media have just grabbed hold of this! Using 5 day old information

    Yup it's being going around for the last few days on FB - Hurricane on the way to Ireland, batten down the hatches :rolleyes:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,128 ✭✭✭ yellowlabrador


    leahyl wrote: »
    Yup it's being going around for the last few days on FB - Hurricane on the way to Ireland, batten down the hatches :rolleyes:

    my neighbour says

    'batter down the hatchets'


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    National Hurricane Centre saying Gaston currently has maximum sustained winds of 95 kts ( 110 mph / 175 km/h ) drifting N and should accelerate its momentum ENE and maintain wind speeds for a few days before weakening significantly as it reaches near the Azores in about 5 days. From what I can see on the models atm and going by the NHC data is for the system to dissipate around the Azores over the weekend.

    WWOCdFn.gif

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 29/1500Z 31.0N 55.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
    12H 30/0000Z 31.3N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
    24H 30/1200Z 31.9N 53.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
    36H 31/0000Z 32.6N 51.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
    48H 31/1200Z 33.7N 49.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
    72H 01/1200Z 36.7N 42.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
    96H 02/1200Z 38.0N 35.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
    120H 03/1200Z 39.0N 30.5W 50 KT 60 MPH


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Today

    29jh9wD.jpg?1


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,714 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Go to 7:35 for images of Gaston.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Well Gaston nearing the end of it's life, initially to loose Hurricane strength later tonight and gradually loose Tropical status by 48hrs and dissipate by 72 hrs just North of the Azores.

    The Azores Met Service has issued a Tropical Storm warning for some Islands.

    CULRETt.jpg?1


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