Hague ruling 12th of July China South seas.

Cheerful Spring

Overlooked in the west, but this could trigger a war.

Unnoticed by most of the western Media. Obama has send two aircraft carriers to Asia area during the middle of June. Its America way of bullying China.


China should prepare itself for military confrontation in the South China Sea, an influential Chinese paper has reported, a week ahead of a decision by an international court on a dispute between China and the Philippines.

in joint editorials in its Chinese and English editions, the state-run Global Times said the dispute, having already been complicated by US intervention, now faces further escalation due to the threat posed by the tribunal to China's sovereignty.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-05/china-should-prepare-for-confrontation-in-south-china-sea/7571128

China had also upping its military drills in the area.

What you guys think will we see a war?

DontThankMe

I think there will be no war.

Iwasfrozen

There won't be a war but China should respect the courts decision and respect Filipino sovereignty.

NIMAN

It doesn't matter cos there is a meteorite due to hit Earth the day before.

Junkyard Tom

William Hague is marching in the South China Sea Orange Order flute band on the 12th of July?

Grayson

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

Overlooked in the west, but this could trigger a war.

Unnoticed by most of the western Media. Obama has send two aircraft carriers to Asia area during the middle of June. Its America way of bullying China.


China should prepare itself for military confrontation in the South China Sea, an influential Chinese paper has reported, a week ahead of a decision by an international court on a dispute between China and the Philippines.

in joint editorials in its Chinese and English editions, the state-run Global Times said the dispute, having already been complicated by US intervention, now faces further escalation due to the threat posed by the tribunal to China's sovereignty.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-05/china-should-prepare-for-confrontation-in-south-china-sea/7571128

China had also upping its military drills in the area.

What you guys think will we see a war?

You might say it's bullying but the presence of a carrier battle group is all that's stopped the Chinese from invading Taiwan.

Iwasfrozen

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

There won't be a war but China should respect the courts decision and respect Filipino sovereignty.

Think the Vietnam situation is a bigger problem that the Filipino one. The Chinese are building islands of the coast and there have been some problems with fishing vessels.

Obama agreed to let Vietnam buy more advanced weaponry a couple of weeks ago during his visit.

Cheerful Spring

The UN tribunal and the Hague have rejected Chinese claims to the South Seas.

Chinese Reaction is Hostile.

Xu Liping, a pro-Beijing scholar from China’s National Institute of International Strategy, told the Guardian he believed the ruling was “biased and unfair”, “absolutely terrible” and “a joke”.

The nationalistic Global Times tabloid attacked the ruling in an English language editorial on Tuesday night as “more radical and shameless than many people had ever expected”, saying it had “brazenly violated China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights.”
The newspaper, which is controlled by the Communist party and sometimes reflects its thinking, also warned of a military escalation. “If the US and Japan use [the ruling] to pile military and political pressure on Beijing, Chinese people will firmly support our government to launch a tit-for-tat counterpunch,” it said. “We trust Chinese law enforcement and military forces have been well-prepared.”

Next few days and weeks are going to be stormy.

Gatling

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

Unnoticed by most of the western Media. Obama has send two aircraft carriers to Asia area during the middle of June. Its America way of bullying China.

America sent two carriers in response to the Chinese military base been constructed on reclaimed land in low laying reefs which includes a run way for military jets so yes bullying going on but not from the west

Infini

Chinese have only themselves to blame. They didnt even send a delegation to argue their point because they know they realistically have none. They cant claim such a massive amount of territory thats hundreds of miles away from their own coastline and basically theyre being called on their shenanigans. Its well known that the real reason they want the region is cos of the resources there. They can throw all the tantrums they want but the more they act the bollocks about it the more they dig themselves into it and turn more and countries against them.

Beta Ray Bill

There won't be a war

Two aircraft carrier groups are no match for the Chinese Airforce/Navy

The put things in perpective
US Nimitz class aircraft carrier design is over 40 years old.
The main strike fighter these carriers have (F-18) is over 30 years old, each ship can only carrier about 24 of these.

They are no match at all for 500+ modern Chinese warplanes or the 480+ ships of the chinese navy.

Those aircraft carriers are going in there to attempt to enforce the Hagues ruling, which China will just ignore.
They could squash them like a bug if they wanted to, but they'll probably just continue operations around them. The Americans wouldn't dare fire first.

fly_agaric

Have struggled to understand the way that China has approached these issues; with loud historical claims to the entire sea right up to the shorelines of other countries & dredger-boat diplomacy...
Would seem to make more sense (to me) and be easier for them to use their massive wealth & "soft" power to cajole their way to agreements to use these waters and islands for their purposes instead of antagonising a whole group of countries + driving them towards making deeper alliances with the US.
Its a discouraging sign for the future but predictable given the nature of our world I suppose. If they believe they have the power advantage in a situation (e.g. with the Philippines and Vietnam which are much poorer and weaker), the automatic choice is to bully their way to what they want.

edit: what's new I suppose - the way the world's big powers and hegemons have always behaved i.e. "strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must"

Beta Ray Bill

fly_agaric wrote: »

Have struggled to understand the way that China has approached these issues; with loud historical claims to the entire sea right up to the shorelines of other countries & dredger-boat diplomacy...
Would seem to make more sense (to me) and be easier for them to use their massive wealth & "soft" power to cajole their way to agreements to use these waters and islands for their purposes instead of antagonising a whole group of countries + driving them towards making deeper alliances with the US.
Its a discouraging sign for the future but predictable given the nature of our world I suppose. If they believe they have the power advantage in a situation (e.g. with the Philippines and Vietnam which are much poorer and weaker), the automatic choice is to bully their way to what they want.

edit: what's new I suppose - the way the world's big powers and hegemons have always behaved i.e. "strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must"

What China, Vietnam and the Phillipenes are claiming crazy!

Looks at the map here:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_South_China_Sea

The only Country with a reasonable claim is Malaysia

feargale

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

Its America way of bullying China.

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

[

The UN tribunal and the Hague have rejected Chinese claims to the South Seas.

Chinese Reaction is Hostile.

Next few days and weeks are going to be stormy.

So the court has ruled. Now then, who is the bully?

Do tell us, Cheerful Spring.

Fiery mutant

grahambo wrote: »

There won't be a war

Two aircraft carrier groups are no match for the Chinese Airforce/Navy

The put things in perpective
US Nimitz class aircraft carrier design is over 40 years old.
The main strike fighter these carriers have (F-18) is over 30 years old, each ship can only carrier about 24 of these.

They are no match at all for 500+ modern Chinese warplanes or the 480+ ships of the chinese navy.

Those aircraft carriers are going in there to attempt to enforce the Hagues ruling, which China will just ignore.
They could squash them like a bug if they wanted to, but they'll probably just continue operations around them. The Americans wouldn't dare fire first.

They don't need anymore than the two carrier battle groups. And even if a shooting match was to start, US forces have much more combat experience and are much more battle ready. Much of the new Chinese planes are based on stolen plans, they have not evolved their forces through learning and tactical awareness, they have just taken what someone else has learned and tried to replicate.

Where the Chinese have the advantage is anti ship missiles and A2/D2, through sheer weight of number and swarm attacks. But as I said, any Chinese attack on them groups, just risks them having to face the full force of the USAF and US Navy, which suffice to say, if far too powerful for them to handle.

fly_agaric

grahambo wrote: »

What China, Vietnam and the Phillipenes are claiming crazy!

Looks at the map here:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_South_China_Sea

The only Country with a reasonable claim is Malaysia

Well I suppose China is the country with the "craziest" claim if one wants to look at the map (rather than use the metric of China's (ancient) history as an imperial power and a philosophy that the sea is a "Chinese lake" etc).

China is the only one with the resources to back up such an expansive claim and that's probably all that matters really.

Beta Ray Bill

Fiery mutant wrote: »

They don't need anymore than the two carrier battle groups. And even if a shooting match was to start, US forces have much more combat experience and are much more battle ready. Much of the new Chinese planes are based on stolen plans, they have not evolved their forces through learning and tactical awareness, they have just taken what someone else has learned and tried to replicate.

Where the Chinese have the advantage is anti ship missiles and A2/D2, through sheer weight of number and swarm attacks. But as I said, any Chinese attack on them groups, just risks them having to face the full force of the USAF and US Navy, which suffice to say, if far too powerful for them to handle.

I think you're wrong. China has invested heavily in their military over the last number of years and yes a lot of their kit looks remarkably similar to Western gear it particular their aircraft.
J16 - Mig 29
J31 - F35
J11 - Su 27
J10 - Euro Fighter Typhoon
Thing is though, these designs work, China has the best of everything

Make no mistake though, American Carrier battle groups have never come under attack in the last 20 years, they have been the one's doing the attacking.
In relation to Air to air combat, Niether nation has had experience in this in the last 20 years either. It's been all bombing campaigns.
So niether side is more experinced than the other.

If those carriers were to be sunk, then that only leave 8, of which some must be in middle east, Indian Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, Protecting the home land etc

Without the carrier's American has no way to launch an attack in the region. No one is going to let them use there bases like we do in europe for fear of china's wrath.

China's claim is ridiculous though! LOL

Gatling

grahambo wrote: »

No one is going to let them use there bases like we do in europe for fear of china's wrath.

China's claim is ridiculous though! LOL

Except the Philippines and Vietnam apparently

Beta Ray Bill

Gatling wrote: »

Except the Philippines and Vietnam apparently

Their claim is almost as bad!
Nearly 1000km's off their coast line!

The only country in the Region that potentially stand up to them is Indonisia, but their not even involved

FortySeven

You're all missing the elephant in the room. China could dump 16tn dollars into the bond market. This would ruin the dollar. America has been asleep at the wheel for a generation or two. They rely on weapons systems that are over complicated, too expensive and take too long to manufacture. Against a determined, capable enemy in an attritional exchange the US has only the nuclear option.

China is a manufacturing powerhouse, it holds the dollar by the balls. America is a spent force once you remove the reserve currency of the dollar.

AMKC

grahambo wrote: »

There won't be a war

Two aircraft carrier groups are no match for the Chinese Airforce/Navy

The put things in perpective
US Nimitz class aircraft carrier design is over 40 years old.
The main strike fighter these carriers have (F-18) is over 30 years old, each ship can only carrier about 24 of these.

They are no match at all for 500+ modern Chinese warplanes or the 480+ ships of the chinese navy.

Those aircraft carriers are going in there to attempt to enforce the Hagues ruling, which China will just ignore.
They could squash them like a bug if they wanted to, but they'll probably just continue operations around them. The Americans wouldn't dare fire first.

America have way more than that out there. They are always doing military drills wit the south Koreans and have bases in Japan, South Korea and other islands. America also have there nuclear submarines and there new state of the art stealth ship as well so if war did break out I think it would be America that would be the better armed and prepared force not China. America would not get into a fight unless it knew it has a good chance of winning.

ArtSmart

The Chinese rulers are more afraid of internal strife, than external opinion. So they'll do the hysterics, probably to get a better deal on the TPP.

When it comes to the crunch, the average Chinese general will only fight if they are winning, similar to the Third Reich days.

On the positive side, the Chinese are isolating themselves from their neighbours, who may now look to the West as their allies.

Fun times ahead.

gctest50

and the USA realises all their routers, phones and telco gear made in China is backdoored at the hardware level

Gatling

gctest50 wrote: »

and the USA realises all their routers, phones and telco gear made in China is backdoored at the hardware level

Lenovo comes to mind

FortySeven

FortySeven wrote: »

You're all missing the elephant in the room. China could dump 16tn dollars into the bond market. This would ruin the dollar. America has been asleep at the wheel for a generation or two. They rely on weapons systems that are over complicated, too expensive and take too long to manufacture. Against a determined, capable enemy in an attritional exchange the US has only the nuclear option.

China is a manufacturing powerhouse, it holds the dollar by the balls. America is a spent force once you remove the reserve currency of the dollar.

And when they do that, who will be left to buy what the Chinese are producing?

Seriously....

FortySeven

Sergio Georgini wrote: »

And when they do that, who will be left to buy what the Chinese are producing?

Seriously....

I'm operating on the premise that one superpower rarely goes down at the behest of the replacement superpower without a fight. China has taken America's manufacturing prowess, then sold tat to it in return for dollar bonds. China has been building gold reserves to back the yuan and ing with Russia has been chipping away at the petrodollar by opening yuan/ruble oil bourses.It has now started military expansion into the south china sea.

They are preparing to do.inmate the region and also to defend from attack.

There will be a fight. It will be epic, we won't need most of what they are selling.

gctest50

FortySeven wrote: »

........ America is a spent force once you remove the reserve currency of the dollar.

and they are ever so jittery about it :

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36768140

US officials refused to prosecute HSBC for money laundering in 2012 because of concerns within the Department of Justice that it would cause a "global financial disaster", a report says.

Cheerful Spring

According to Officials in the know and who are close to the Obama. China was warned if they tried to reclaim land near the Scarborough Shoal (China South Seas) a war between the two countries was highly likely. This was widely reported in March. The chances of war are very high.

China is not going to back down. President Xi Jingping responded by saying that China would “refuse to accept” the decision.

On Wednesday, Liu Zhenmin, the vice foreign minister, said: "If our security is being threatened, of course we have the right to demarcate a [air defence identification] zone.”

If such an ADIZ were to be imposed, China would require all aircraft entering the designated airspace to identify themselves. China declared an ADIZ over disputed islands in the East China Sea in 2013, escalating tensions with the United States and Japan.

If ADIZ is declared in the China South Seas confrontation is unavoidable.

At this time i can't see whos going to back away from trouble?

Gatling

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

According to Officials in the know and who are close to the Obama. China was warned if they tried to reclaim land near the Scarborough Shoal (China South Seas) a war between the two countries was highly likely. This was widely reported in March. The chances of war are very high.

The Scarborough shoal which happens to be 530+ miles away from the Chinese coast ,
Will be interesting to see how China is planning to control the whole south China Sea military might alone won't get them far

Infini

FortySeven wrote: »

You're all missing the elephant in the room. China could dump 16tn dollars into the bond market. This would ruin the dollar. America has been asleep at the wheel for a generation or two. They rely on weapons systems that are over complicated, too expensive and take too long to manufacture. Against a determined, capable enemy in an attritional exchange the US has only the nuclear option.

China is a manufacturing powerhouse, it holds the dollar by the balls. America is a spent force once you remove the reserve currency of the dollar.

It also shouldnt be stupid enough to go overboard either. The problem is they do it once and their prestiege would tank quickly. China would also be wary of doing that because that tactic is a double edged sword and they would suffer a massive economic blowback as well, we had ghost estates they got ghost cities and alot of dodgy economic data. Their own economy would tank big time and their domestic stability would be at threat as well if that happened. They're in a strong position as they are because of cheap manufacturing and trade which would be lost because it would trigger the likes of the US to restore their own domestic manufacturing capabilities as a result. They're throwing a tantrum but theyre not stupid enough to shoot themselves in the foot.

They could launch cyber attacks as well but those would only work once because most likely the result of something like that would be the severing of connections from china from something like that aka china was permabanned from the internets. It could also be considered a direct attack on another countries infrastructure and leave them open to physical retaliation as well.

Its extremely remote things would get that bad but if push came to shove the chinese would have a great deal to lose as well if they push too hard over the issue.

Ronald Wilson Reagan

Using Chinese logic we should claim a Caribbean island.

Gatling

Ronald Wilson Reagan wrote: »

Using Chinese logic we should claim a Caribbean island.

An island the Atlantic is ours by the Chinese logic

skywanderer

The Philippines recently elected Rodrigo Duterte, he is a no nonsense tough talker who won't back down; his recent policy is rounding up and shooting drug addicts; he could possibly trigger a confrontation with the Chinese. The United States will (hopefully) elect Donald Trump this winter, Trump will put the Chinese back in their box very quickly. For people claiming maps, take a look at the island of Palawan a large island in the Philippines archipelago; these reefs and shores are just off shore; the land rightfully belongs to the Philippines.