book early and you will get the cheapest flights

nailer54321

Why do airlines say the earlier you book your flight the better deal you will get when this is clearly no the case. I have noticed on a number of occasions that flights have come down in price much closer to the departure date. I know it all depends on demand. I remember the head of Ryanair on the late late show some years ago making a statement that if you book well in advance you can be guarenteed the best price, 'clearly not the case'. So do people book flights early or do they wait and see closer to the dates they want to travel and also what would you say the best times are for booking flights. I think around 4-6 weeks out from your travel dates is best. anyone with experience of this.

coylemj

The airlines make it their business that the consumer cannot follow any magic formula to get the lowest fare. That's basically the bottom line and as the demand curve (early/mid/late bookings) for each route is different and varies based on the time of year, anyone who attempts to answer your question is engaged in wild speculation.

nailer54321

All I can say is that from my experience is that 4-6 weeks out is best to book, you need to keep checking but you will find that regardless of demand or season that on at least one day the prices will bottom out . so in my experience you should never book too early regardless of what the airlines say.

Mr rebel

Not in my experience.
I booked a return flight to Stockholm with SAS for May back in February, and even though it was very expensive then, I thought it was only going to increase in price if I didn't book it right away.
Fast forward to a month before my flight and the flights I booked back in February were now a whole €100 cheaper if I had booked "last minute".....I was raging but it's a complete gamble:(

coylemj

nailer54321 wrote: »

All I can say is that from my experience is that 4-6 weeks out is best to book, you need to keep checking but you will find that regardless of demand or season that on at least one day the prices will bottom out . so in my experience you should never book too early regardless of what the airlines say.

+1 booking months in advance will seldom get you the lowest fare. People who book that far in advance are usually in a situation where they have to travel on a specific date because of a family wedding or because they're getting an apartment or hotel at a bargain price but in most of those cases, the airlines screw them for the luxury of pinning down the flights so far in advance.

nailer54321

exactly what I mean Mr rebel, February is too far out for flights in in May, you need to keep an eye on the flights every day but you will see a trend,

hawkwind23

Flights , as with all things , its best to know their value then act accordingly.
Prices operate on supply and demand.
I used to get stressed over prices going up and down , now i understand "value" its not a problem

thejaguar

Book your flights - then don't look at the prices again. Hey Presto, they're the cheapest you've seen.

Now go enjoy your holiday.

nailer54321

As a frequent flyer I am use to checking websites for prices, it is clearly down to what you preceave to be a good price for the product you are buying. I am currently looking for flight in October at the moment, I know what I should be paying as I have travelled to this place many times before, At the moment the prices vary hugely on a daily bases so am still waiting for the bottoming out but don't expect it to be for a while, I know people will have preferred airlines and don't mind paying a little extra for flying with there favourite airline but it helps to keep checking prices so that you get a feeling for what the real price should be and what the airlines are willing to drop to, I know from experience the price range for the flights I am looking for so will only book them when they reach that, at the moment they are nearly 3times the price they should be on some days and double on others so will wait a while longer until I decide the price is rite.

nailer54321

That's one way of doing it @thejaguar but if you fly regular it could save you a lot of money if you know what the bottom price is for a certain flight to a certain destination, after all the cheaper the price you pay for a flight the more money in your pocket to spend..

ncmc

Funny, I was just thinking about this today, I booked flights for August about two months ago. I had been tracking them since January when they were quite low and then increases and stayed high for about three months. Once they dropped again, I booked straight away. I’ve been checking semi-regularly since and they haven’t dropped to the level I paid. Even now, less than 7 weeks out, they are about €200 dearer than I paid (for two adults one child) Now maybe they will drop again closer to the time, but that hasn’t been my experience in the past. I think it depends where you’re going too, the airport I am flying to is only served by Aer Lingus and there is only one flight daily. I suppose if you had a choice of multiple flights and airlines, you might be more minded to take a punt and wait.

spurious

It also depends when you are going. If you get a price that is acceptable to you in school mid term time, take it, as they will just go up as demand rises.

Antar Bolaeisk

Tickets are always at their cheapest the day after you've booked them.

coylemj

Antar Bolaeisk wrote: »

Tickets are always at their cheapest the day after you've booked them.

+1 and you should never discuss the fare you paid with the person sitting beside you on the plane because s/he will always have paid less than you

Gatica

nailer54321 wrote: »

All I can say is that from my experience is that 4-6 weeks out is best to book, you need to keep checking but you will find that regardless of demand or season that on at least one day the prices will bottom out . so in my experience you should never book too early regardless of what the airlines say.

Not in my experience. Usually many months in advance for most of EU destinations I'd gone to and would get them for really cheap. Only one time got lucky to see a price that was cheaper 2 months out than 5 months before, but we waited because of visas.

duffman13

Way too many variables to say 4-6 weeks is the best time. Generally I find for flights 1-2 hours in duration it usually about booking during a sale on Ryanair or Aer Lingus. I regularly travelled to the UK for work and I fond very little difference in price from 3 months out up until maybe a week out, then they usually rise.

Long haul flights to Middle East/Asia/Australia I've always got the best price around 4-6 months before travelling but depends on time of year aswell. Within 2-3 months I've not seen the price drop on a long haul flight, but maybe I've just been lucky.

Bottom line is there is no rule or formula for cheap flights.

yqtwqxqm

I fly a lot in Europe and I am a bit nerdish about the pricing algorithms having worked for a huge irish airline many a year ago.

I wrote myself a program to collect skyscanner price changes and it has been running for about 3 years now, and ive used it to time the best prices with great results. The beauty is that I can track the price I paid easily against the current price and i think ive cracked it. Of course the airlines could modify their algorithms, but i think now that they have them optimised that they will change little in the future.

I am 100% sure that the most expensive time to book a flight in Europe is 9 - 4.5 weeks from departure.
Even before that there are wild swings above and slightly below the most expensive price.
The absolute cheapest time to book your flight will be 3.5 - 4.5 weeks from departure.
Never wait until 1 week before departure unless you want to be fleeced.

Of course there are exceptions, but not many. Certain routes have their own special pattern.

Ryanair and Aer Lingus are similar in their optimal booking times.
EasyJet are cheapest 7 weeks from departure.

Flying from the UK to Europe is almost always considerably cheaper than flying from Dublin to Europe. Sometimes its even worth flying to the UK and then on to Europe, but remember you have to pay for extra journeys for your bags too if you do this so it might not work out.

So to sum up.
Flying from Dublin to Europe (not UK, that has its own algorithm) the cheapest time to book is 3.5 - 4.5 weeks to departure.
Never ever fly to sun destinations in July, August, Easter, Christmas if it can be avoided. You will be fleeced regardless.
If you can get your flights, or at least one leg of them at end of June or start of september rather than July, August you will be better off by hundreds of euro.

On a side not, skyscanner could easily let you see a graph of the historic prices so you can get this data yourself. ie you put in a route and see a graph of the fluctuations in the price by date going back to the beginning of skyscanner. I dont know why they dont.

Happy flying.

nailer54321

As was said before if your happy with a price then book it but as a rule you should always check prices on a daily bases if your planning a trip, this just gives you a feeling for highs/lows in pricing, I still think 4-6 weeks out is best from my experience, just book a flight to Europe for August was been advertised for 545 by aerlingus and 524 by transient for a long time and this suddenly dropped by nearly 250 by both airlines ! that's for two flights'. So again only 4-5 weeks away and prices drop, but I do find this is best time. Hope it is some help to others.