Irish Medal Tally Prediction

stereomatic

60 days to go for the Rio Olympics

For a link to the Irish Qualifying for a place at Rio here a link to a bigger sister thread
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056783559

I'll leave the poll open for 62 days (2 days into the Olympics) to get as many predictions as possible

The_Kew_Tour

3 Bronzr

1 Gold 3 Silver 2 Bronze.

Maybe tad optimistic, but reckon we will get least 5 medals

Oldira

2 Silver

I'd go for 1 Gold, I silver and 2 bronze. If you look at bookies odds they are all saying 3 medals or less. Also some of those we are saying are medal contenders are available at 100/1 plus to win gold. Eg Annalise Murphy, Seaton/McGovern

LuckyLloyd

Zero

Oldira

2 Silver

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Zero

Pessimistic?

stereomatic

2 Bronze

Might as well make my prediction

For some reason I think Ireland could have its best medal haul

2 Gold
2 Silver
8 Bronze

I hope this is not optimism, but I'm not a clairvoyant

Chivito550

2 Gold

stereomatic wrote: »

Might as well make my prediction

For some reason I think Ireland could have its best medal haul

2 Gold
2 Silver
8 Bronze

I hope this is not optimism, but I'm not a clairvoyant

As Roy Keane would say, have you been drinking?

stereomatic

2 Bronze

Chivito550 wrote: »

As Roy Keane would say, have you been drinking?

I might be tonight

walshb

Of the 73 taking part only the boxers provide a realistic medal chance IMO.

walshb

Oh, and Shane Lowry!

Pudsy33

3 Gold

Dan Martin a solid chance in the cycling. I'll predict 3 being medals, one of each colour, and a bronze in the cycling.

walshb

Are there any medals going for the best fans at the games?

Chivito550

2 Gold

walshb wrote: »

Of the 73 taking part only the boxers provide a realistic medal chance IMO.

Good shout at a medal in Modern Pentathlon too.

walshb

Chivito550 wrote: »

Good shout at a medal in Modern Pentathlon too.

I was thinking the same thing. Natalya Coyle is class, and O'Keeffe is medal potential. One of the best disciplines at the Games.

stereomatic

2 Bronze

The walker Heffernan could get a medal

The O'Donovan Brothers and Pušpure could also get a medal each

mansize

4 Gold

1 Gold, if things fall right for Conlan

Zaph

3 Gold

Sports Illustrated has a full list of medal predictions for every single event. Here's what they're predicting Ireland will win:

BOXING
Gold - Michael Conlan
Gold - Katie Taylor
Silver - Michael O'Reilly
Silver - Joe Ward
Bronze - Paddy Barnes

GOLF
Bronze - Padraig Harrington

walshb

Very demanding predictions. Possible? Yes!

Dick phelan

2 Silver

Boxing
Paddy Barnes Gold
Michael Conlan hopefully Gold but i'd say Silver
Katy Taylor Gold
Joe Ward Silver
Michael O'Reiley Bronze
from other sports might pick up one in golf, modern pentathlon Sailing and cycling, 6 medals a realistic guess i think

Oldira

2 Silver

Leaving boxing aside for the minute, we have chances in other sports but if one is to look at bookies odds they are few and far between. If we look at those in the top six of the bookies odds as realistic contenders for a medal we have:
Cycling Road Race....Dan Martin 14/1
Rowing Lightweight double sculls 22/1
50KM Walk Rob Heffernan 14/1
Modern Pentathlon.A Lanigan-O'Keefe 14/1

All of our saliling crews are at least 100/1
Greg Broderick Showjumping 175/1
Padraig Harrington Golf 40/1
Leona Maguire Golf 100/1

Bookies are saying we will 3 medals in total which may be a tad pessimistic. But if we have a bad boxing tournament with bad draws, bad judging then its possible we could end up with just1-2. We all get too optimistic on oyur medal chances. Even Sports Illustrated has gone way ott on our chances. Three Golds? Possible but we would need tonnes of luck.

Pherekydes

6 Gold

Remember that the odds in a bookies reflect the market, not the actual odds or probabilities of events being won.

Chivito550

2 Gold

Pherekydes wrote: »

Remember that the odds in a bookies reflect the market, not the actual odds or probabilities of events being won.

+1. And most bookies know shag all about Olympic sports. They tend to go on seasons bests which for anybody who understands a sport like athletics knows that means little come a championship.

Avatar MIA

2 Silver

Oldira wrote: »

Rowing Lightweight double sculls 22/1

This is the one I'll be keeping a close eye on.

Apart from boxing, I think we have a good shout in rowing, walking and golf.

DJIMI TRARORE

Is annalise murphy included in that 100/1

Dodge

3 Gold

Realistic medal hopes:

All the boxers. Obviously not all will win but they all have a shout

Dan Martin and Nico Roche. Dan will be disappointed if he doesn't medal

Heffernan

The O'Donovan brothers

Seaton/McGovern in sailing

ALOK in modern pentathlon because it's so random when horses are involved

Greg Broderick

The 3 day eventing team

Harrington

None of those winning a medal would be seen as a complete shock. Anyone else probably would even if others can reach finals or finish top 6-10

I'm going for 5 medals.

mansize

4 Gold

3 medals.

Oldira

2 Silver

DJIMI TRARORE wrote: »

Is annalise murphy included in that 100/1

Yes. Sadly the course does not suit her as she is best with strong winds and her form has dipped this past 18 months. She may have missed her best chance in 2012.

Chivito550

2 Gold

What kind of expectations are realistic for our 3 rowing boats?

Dodge

3 Gold

Chivito550 wrote: »

What kind of expectations are realistic for our 3 rowing boats?

O'Donovans can medal.

Semis for Sanita would be good. Don't think she'll get to final

Similar for Lambe/Jennings

godtabh

Zaph wrote: »

Sports Illustrated has a full list of medal predictions for every single event. Here's what they're predicting Ireland will win:

BOXING
Gold - Michael Conlan
Gold - Katie Taylor
Silver - Michael O'Reilly
Silver - Joe Ward
Bronze - Paddy Barnes

GOLF
Bronze - Padraig Harrington

No cycling? Dan Martin has a good chance of a medal.

stereomatic

2 Bronze

Zaph wrote: »

Sports Illustrated has a full list of medal predictions for every single event. Here's what they're predicting Ireland will win:

BOXING
Gold - Michael Conlan
Gold - Katie Taylor
Silver - Michael O'Reilly
Silver - Joe Ward
Bronze - Paddy Barnes

GOLF
Bronze - Padraig Harrington

Unfortunately one silver medal from this prediction will not happen now

mansize

4 Gold

stereomatic wrote: »

Unfortunately one silver medal from this prediction will not happen now

Well they could get the B sample tested

Avatar MIA

2 Silver

mansize wrote: »

Well they could get the B sample tested

Wouldn't have the results back in time.

Besides, in the history of testing has a B sample ever recorded differently?

Dodge

3 Gold

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Wouldn't have the results back in time.

Besides, in the history of testing has a B sample ever recorded differently?

Loads of times. The A sample result isn't always announced

Here's what O'Reilly has to say on it

https://twitter.com/michaeloreillyb/status/761265792067461121

Avatar MIA

2 Silver

Dodge wrote: »

Loads of times. The A sample result isn't always announced

Here's what O'Reilly has to say on it

https://twitter.com/michaeloreillyb/status/761265792067461121

Surprised there are differences between a and b samples. Independent describing it as a bizarre tweet.

Andalucia

3 Gold

4 boxing medals, split between a gold (Taylor), silver and 2 bronzes between Conlan, Ward and Barnes - all depends on the draw

what do you do with an athlete caught up in a doping story? make sure they stay away from social media

mansize

4 Gold

Taylor won't get gold

Avatar MIA

2 Silver

mansize wrote: »

Taylor won't get gold

It is by no means certain, which 2012 seemed to be. I'd tend to agree with you.

Chivito550

2 Gold

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Wouldn't have the results back in time.

Besides, in the history of testing has a B sample ever recorded differently?

Marion Jones, ironically.

Oldira

2 Silver

We have a decent number of contenders but the pessimist in me reckons we will fall short in most cases. I would really love us to win a medal in a sport outside Boxing..Rowing or Cycling. Of our main contenders this is what I expect...

Boxing

Michael Conlan Gold
Paddy Barnes Silver
Joe Ward Bronze
Katie Taylor Gold

Rowing
O'Riordan Bros 5th in final
Puspure 7th (wins B Final)
Jennings Lamb 9th

Cycling
Martin 15th
Roche Pack

Modern Pentathlon

Lanigan-O'Keefe 9th
Coyle 18th

Equestrian

Team Eventing 6th
Individ Eventing 1 top ten finish
Showjumping (Broderick) 12th

Sailing
McGovern/Seaton 9th
Murphy 25th

Athletics
Heffernan 50k Walk 6th
Mageehan 1500m w Final

Golf

Harrington 30th

The rest will be hoping for PBs or a semi-final or an outside chance of a final.

Mr.Nice Guy

3 Gold

0 Gold
2 Silver
2 Bronze

Zaph

3 Gold

godtabh wrote: »

No cycling? Dan Martin has a good chance of a medal.

I agree, I think Dan Martin has a very good chance of a medal. He had a good TdF and the course in Rio suits him as there are a lot of stiff climbs. There's a flat 20km run in from the last descent to the finish, but hopefully the climbs will have eliminated all the sprinters by then and it doesn't go to a bunch finish.

Strazdas

mansize wrote: »

Taylor won't get gold

I think she will. I can't see her losing twice to either Alekseevna or Mossely twice in the same year (if she does, she's a long way short of her former self)

breffni bogballer

i think we will get 4, all in boxing, no other top 6 in any sport

Anyone else think this could be Katies swansong, especially if she gets gold

SantryRed

Paddy Power offering 3.5 on the over/under medals for Ireland. It seems a really good bet to me with our boxers.

Masala

How did Dan Martin do in the cycling today??? Didn't hear his name on tge small bit of coverage I saw today

Avatar MIA

2 Silver

Masala wrote: »

How did Dan Martin do in the cycling today??? Didn't hear his name on tge small bit of coverage I saw today

13th

stereomatic

2 Bronze

Perhaps I should have opened the poll earlier and closed it later

I think my predictions were a tad too optimistic

kabakuyu

[QUOTE=Oldira;

. But if we have a bad boxing tournament with bad draws, bad judging then its possible we could end up with just1-2. We all get too optimistic on oyur medal chances. Even Sports Illustrated has gone way ott on our chances. .[/QUOTE]

Do the lotto,;)

stereomatic

2 Bronze

I think we can get another medal from this Olympics

I hope

Oldira

2 Silver

stereomatic wrote: »

I think we can get another medal from this Olympics

I hope

We have 3 possibilities but no more than a possibilitie.
Heffernan,Barr and Lanigan-O'Keefe in that order.