Flying is the safest form of transport- really?

Wanderer2010

We are always told that, despite the odd tragic and horrible crash/event, you are extremely safe to fly as a means of transport and there are all these statistics bandied about like your chances of dying in a plane crash being 1 in 11 million and that 97% of passengers survive crashes but are these statistics really still relevant given recent events?

I know strictly speaking terrorism cant be blamed on a plane but with things like CityJet and EasyJet doing emergency landings, FLY VLM landing gear not working, is flying getting riskier by the day??. I have a long flight from Shannon to NY next week and I cant help thinking I'm really pushing my luck by showing up and its really only a matter of time before crashes etc become more regular and flying WONT be a safe form of transport. Thoughts?

lfc200

Wanderer2010 wrote: »

We are always told that, despite the odd tragic and horrible crash/event, you are extremely safe to fly as a means of transport and there are all these statistics bandied about like your chances of dying in a plane crash being 1 in 11 million and that 97% of passengers survive crashes but are these statistics really still relevant given recent events?

I know strictly speaking terrorism cant be blamed on a plane but with things like CityJet and EasyJet doing emergency landings, FLY VLM landing gear not working, is flying getting riskier by the day??. I have a long flight from Shannon to NY next week and I cant help thinking I'm really pushing my luck by showing up and its really only a matter of time before crashes etc become more regular and flying WONT be a safe form of transport. Thoughts?

Is this serious?

arubex

According to the ICAO, in 2013 there were 3.1 billion passengers carried on commercial aircraft. Or equivalent to just under half the World's population.

210 passengers died in accidents.

I'll take those odds.

But the global 24/7 rolling-news media machines keeps hammering us with news of every incident. EasyJet emergency landing? In 1963 that wouldn't even have made a sidebar in the national papers, probably not even if the journalist himself was onboard.

Oscar Bravo

2015 - Road traffic figures Ireland- Of the 166 fatalities, there were 76 Drivers killed, 27 Passengers, 32 Pedestrians, 22 Motorcyclists and 9 Pedal Cyclists. flying is extremely safe.

crosstownk

Wanderer2010 wrote: »

We are always told that, despite the odd tragic and horrible crash/event, you are extremely safe to fly as a means of transport and there are all these statistics bandied about like your chances of dying in a plane crash being 1 in 11 million and that 97% of passengers survive crashes but are these statistics really still relevant given recent events?

I know strictly speaking terrorism cant be blamed on a plane but with things like CityJet and EasyJet doing emergency landings, FLY VLM landing gear not working, is flying getting riskier by the day??. I have a long flight from Shannon to NY next week and I cant help thinking I'm really pushing my luck by showing up and its really only a matter of time before crashes etc become more regular and flying WONT be a safe form of transport. Thoughts?

I think you're being somewhat irrational. Flying is safe - safer than your drive to the airport (to repeat a time honoured quote).

I think you're coming from the point of view that if something goes wrong, mid air, then your chances of being killed go up dramatically. But what you're probably not factoring in is that the chances of something going wrong in the first place are quite slim - that's what makes flying safe.

The stats above demonstrate that perfectly.

Wanderer2010

lfc200 wrote: »

Is this serious?

It is! I know you guys on this forum are a lot more knowledgable etc about stats, but every time there is an aviation crash or incident, it seems the media spend the whole of the next 2 weeks reporting on incidents like emergency landings, landing gears, dumping fuel etc it makes me think what stuff is NOT making the newspapers about flying.

crosstownk

Wanderer2010 wrote: »

it makes me think what stuff is NOT making the newspapers about flying.

What is making the newspapers/media is pure speculation and the drive to fill airtime/columns. With 24hr news feed any half witted theory will get time. One theory leads to 2 more and those 2 to 2 more each....... ad infinitum and the real facts get left behind because they are usually few and won't fill the inches.

Best to not listen to it because it's all drivel that, wrongly, makes people afraid.

Oh, and don't ever read the Daily Mail for aviation related 'stories'.

lintdrummer

Wanderer2010 wrote: »

it makes me think what stuff is NOT making the newspapers about flying.

Do you ever wonder what road traffic incidents don't make the news? Because that's the same logic you're using. Would you feel more comfortable about driving if every malfunctioning airbag light, puncture, minor fender bender etc. made it into the papers?
The truth is that the types of incidents you've mentioned invariably end safely because of the redundancy and safety margins built into modern transport aircraft. Your fear is irrational and you should look forward to your trip and enjoy your flight!

Benevolent Misanthrope

This is a great example of how human beings are just rubbish at assessing risk.

Sterling Archer

Easy way to think about it is imagine it news outlets treated car accidents the same way, You could create a dedicated channel about it,

Tragedies involving mass public transport typically get a lot of airtime because sadly it "sells", also with so much social media it easier to cover such stories.

Tenger

Wanderer2010 wrote: »

It is! I know you guys on this forum are a lot more knowledgable etc about stats, but every time there is an aviation crash or incident, it seems the media spend the whole of the next 2 weeks reporting on incidents like emergency landings, landing gears, dumping fuel etc it makes me think what stuff is NOT making the newspapers about flying.

But that's the point being made, the media is reporting all the 'normal' stuff that happens in aviation. Flight crew train constantly to deal with these emergency landings, gears problems, dumping fuel, diversions, go-arounds etc.
What the media call "an emergency" is often just "a non-routine situation" in aviation. They have checklists to follow and deal with pretty much any situation that has previously happened.

Think about your circle of friends, have you heard any of them moan about getting the NCT on their car. Well consider that an aircraft gets an NCT done every night. And it gets a check-up by an engineer after every flight. Imagine getting a mechanic out to your house every weekend to listen to your reccent experiences or look over your engine,sounds a bit mad? Thats what happens to every commercial airliner in the world.

CiboC

Wanderer2010 wrote: »

it makes me think what stuff is NOT making the newspapers about flying.

You have to remember what is NOT making the news about flying is the thousands of flights that take off and land every day with NO incident whatsoever...!

Would you pay attention to a headline that reads 'Breaking news, a flight landed this afternoon in Dublin airport, everything was perfectly normal - no incidents whatsoever, although the passenger in 11b spilt some juice on the trousers being careless..!!!'

Normal doesn't make the headlines. Normal is happening every minute of every day all around the world, you just don't hear about it. Put this out of your mind and enjoy your flight.

coylemj

Wanderer2010 wrote: »

It is! I know you guys on this forum are a lot more knowledgable etc about stats, but every time there is an aviation crash or incident, it seems the media spend the whole of the next 2 weeks reporting on incidents like emergency landings, landing gears, dumping fuel etc it makes me think what stuff is NOT making the newspapers about flying.

I'll tell what doesn't make the newspapers - the fact that millions of passengers fly every day and safely get to their destinations with no incident.

Stop reading the Daily Mail, problem solved.

Bazzy

Gerry Humphries is an aerobatic pilot from limerick whos spent more time in the air than on land

The recent documentary on shannon airport he was talking about his son who is following in his footsteps.

He said he understands his son is in more danger driving to the airport than flying upside down in a russian made plane with very little protection.

Enjoy your flight sit back relax have a tasty beverage and enjoy it.

cowboyBuilder

Wanderer2010 wrote: »

It is! I know you guys on this forum are a lot more knowledgable etc about stats, but every time there is an aviation crash or incident, it seems the media spend the whole of the next 2 weeks reporting on incidents like emergency landings, landing gears, dumping fuel etc it makes me think what stuff is NOT making the newspapers about flying.

Nothing!
It's the opposite, every incident - even when it's not dangerous at all is making the media - and they will yammer on about it.

Think about all the car crash deaths that NEVER make it to the media.

Just go on to flghtradar24.com and look at the sheer number of planes in the sky every minute .. every day and nothing happens.

I read a stat somewhere that to guarantee you would die in a crash you would need to fly everyday for 26,000 years ..

I'll take those odds.

knucklehead6

There are, on average, 100000 flights per day.

Yesterday AVHERALD.com reported incidents on 7.
On Wednesday that number was 7. With one of those relating to a final report on an incident in Dublin on Sept 2015.
Tuesday's count was 10. with one relating to the disappearance on MH370, one relating to a hard landing in Feb 2014 and one related to the Egyptair crash.

If you want to feel safe, use sources like avherald, it's a great site and shows that 99.9% of aviation related issues are reported. No matter how minor or how serious. And on a snapshot of 3 days (where there were 300000 flights) there were 24 reports.

cowboyBuilder

another thing, apparently if shipping were subject to the same level of safety as aviation is - most cruise companies (all probably) would be shut down.

ShiddyArze

I know flying is the safest mode of transport, that I'm millions of times more likely to die of cancer or cardiovascular disease, I brainwash myself with all the statistics as much as I can, I take lots of xanx and I still cannot control my anxiety. I truly am the worst flyer ever, uncontrollably shaking, sweat literally dripping off me, head moving up and down like a mad man. How can I overcome this fear? It really ruined every holiday ive ever had as my only memories are the fear I had on the plane

cowboyBuilder

ShiddyArze wrote: »

I know flying is the safest mode of transport, that I'm millions of times more likely to die of cancer or cardiovascular disease, I brainwash myself with all the statistics as much as I can, I take lots of xanx and I still cannot control my anxiety. I truly am the worst flyer ever, uncontrollably shaking, sweat literally dripping off me, head moving up and down like a mad man. How can I overcome this fear? It really ruined every holiday ive ever had as my only memories are the fear I had on the plane

I wouldn't be this bad, but despite all my posts on here, I'm not the best flyer either - it used to be a lot worse, but getting an interest on Aviation and reading about air safety and accidents (be careful though - stay away from sensationalist nonsense documentaries on the Discovery or History channel) has calmed me a lot.


Cockpit confidential is an excellent book.

Black Box is decent too - all about accidents and investigations.

StupidLikeAFox

Taxi driver turns to a pilot and says "How often do airplanes crash?"

Pilot replies: "Just the once, after that they're pretty much ****ed"

CelticRambler

[QUOTE=Wanderer2010;99838109with things like CityJet and EasyJet doing emergency landings, FLY VLM landing gear not working, is flying getting riskier by the day??. I have a long flight from Shannon to NY next week and I cant help thinking I'm really pushing my luck by showing up and its really only a matter of time before crashes etc become more regular and flying WONT be a safe form of transport. Thoughts?[/QUOTE]

Try listening to AA Roadwatch some time. See if you can keep track of the number of times they report "due to a crash" or "vehicle broken down" or similar. Then compare one day's traffic reports from Ireland with all the stories you can find of the (developed) worlds' airlines mishaps.

Now do you really want to push your luck by getting in a car next week?

ShiddyArze

cowboyBuilder wrote:

I wouldn't be this bad, but despite all my posts on here, I'm not the best flyer either - it used to be a lot worse, but getting an interest on Aviation and reading about air safety and accidents (be careful though - stay away from sensationalist nonsense documentaries on the Discovery or History channel) has calmed me a lot.

cowboyBuilder wrote:

Cockpit confidential is an excellent book.

cowboyBuilder wrote:

Black Box is decent too - all about accidents and investigations.

Thank you. I will check those out! I have been watching hours of successful emergency landings ect on you tube, My biggest fear was landing gear getting stuck, even though I know a plane lands on its belly almost everyday with no injuries. Logical thinking just disappears as I step on the plane. Despite all my efforts, it gets worse every time. Hopefully those books can help me

12Phase

There are people being killed in road accidents every second around the world. Ireland is thankfully one of the safest places in the world to drive but even so there are road deaths fairly regular occurrences.

They're so ubiquitous we don't notice unless it's something particularly ugly like a bus crash.

Plane crashes are rare, but for psychological reasons, they are more impactful because they're fundamentally more frightening due to the whole being up thousands of metres in the air in a pressurised, winged tube going at several hundred km/h.

The same goes for rail crashes which are extremely rare but when they do happen there's always a massive panic.

I had someone ask me if the TGV was safe!!
It has carried at least 1.2 billion passengers since it was introduced in the early 80s and the only fatalities were test staff during a recent ultra high speed test with a new design currently unused.

So basically you've a 11/1.2 billion risk.

You'd be far more likely to be killed or injured by falling down the gap between the train and the platform or slipping in the station.

You'd actually be far far more likely to be killed slipping in your own bathroom while showering and getting ready for the train or plane.

Being struck by lightening while playing golf the day before is also high up the list.

ShiddyArze

I know all that, but as I said, logical thinking disappears when I sit in that seat and the doors are closed. I guess it's because my fate is completely out of my control.

cowboyBuilder

ShiddyArze wrote: »

Thank you. I will check those out! I have been watching hours of successful emergency landings ect on you tube, My biggest fear was landing gear getting stuck, even though I know a plane lands on its belly almost everyday with no injuries. Logical thinking just disappears as I step on the plane. Despite all my efforts, it gets worse every time. Hopefully those books can help me

Again, I'd be skeptical of youtube, anything can be put up there and any context applied.

Landing gear can't get stuck, there is safety measure where just gravity will take a the wheels down - just lets them drop.

There have been some recent cases where they couldn't raise landing gear, but this isn't a major issue,they just turn back..

ShiddyArze

cowboyBuilder wrote:

Landing gear can't get stuck, there is safety measure where just gravity will take a the wheels down - just lets them drop.

I've read that on average, 1 plane everyday lands without the nose gear down. Either its stuck or the pilot forgot to put it down?

Dial Hard

ShiddyArze wrote:

I've read that on average, 1 plane everyday lands without the nose gear down. Either its stuck or the pilot forgot to put it down?

I think you need to remember what Abraham Lincoln said about things you read on the internet.

The King of Dalriada

cowboyBuilder wrote: »

Again, I'd be skeptical of youtube, anything can be put up there and any context applied.

Landing gear can't get stuck, there is safety measure where just gravity will take a the wheels down - just lets them drop.

There have been some recent cases where they couldn't raise landing gear, but this isn't a major issue,they just turn back..

Gear can get stuck up. Usually because of a misrigging in the doors, causing incorrect sequencing of door opening. Gravity free fall won't work if the door doesn't open!

The King of Dalriada

ShiddyArze wrote: »

I've read that on average, 1 plane everyday lands without the nose gear down. Either its stuck or the pilot forgot to put it down?

I would seriously doubt that statistic.
It happens, but not very often in commercial transport operations.

KrakityJones

I used to be quite nervous about flying too, maybe still am a little so I like to look at this video before I fly anywhere : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yx7_yzypm5w

It shows all the flights in the world in one day- just 1 day, gives you an idea of just how many there are, then imagine how many over a month, a year - and think of how many crashes there's been - you'd count them on one hand.

Sterling Archer

ShiddyArze wrote: »

I know flying is the safest mode of transport, that I'm millions of times more likely to die of cancer or cardiovascular disease, I brainwash myself with all the statistics as much as I can, I take lots of xanx and I still cannot control my anxiety. I truly am the worst flyer ever, uncontrollably shaking, sweat literally dripping off me, head moving up and down like a mad man. How can I overcome this fear? It really ruined every holiday ive ever had as my only memories are the fear I had on the plane

Perhaps take a flying lesson, may sound crazy but it could work

Bazzy

Shane_ef wrote: »

Perhaps take a flying lesson, may sound crazy but it could work

This worked very very well for me

737 sim as well helped.

All the switches look daunting but they all have a sensible reason ( most of them anyway)

Poulgorm

If you spend, say, 1,000 hours in a car and a thousand hours flying, which has the higher possibility of getting killed?

I don't know the answer, but I suspect it would narrow down the odds in favour of the car.

This passenger-miles thing can be misleading, I suspect: spend 6 hours travelling to the USA from Ireland, in the company of 300 passengers: that's 900,000 passenger miles. Very impressive stat, but it is, after all, only 6 hours travelling. Drive from Cork to Belfast (on your own) and that is just 260 passenger miles. About 5 hours travelling.

As I said, this passenger miles stat can be misleading. Lies...etc.

I hope I have not worried anyone now!

lintdrummer

Poulgorm wrote: »

If you spend, say, 1,000 hours in a car and a thousand hours flying, which has the higher possibility of getting killed?

I don't know the answer, but I suspect it would narrow down the odds in favour of the car.

This passenger-miles thing can be misleading, I suspect: spend 6 hours travelling to the USA from Ireland, in the company of 300 passengers: that's 900,000 passenger miles. Very impressive stat, but it is, after all, only 6 hours travelling. Drive from Cork to Belfast (on your own) and that is just 260 passenger miles. About 5 hours travelling.

As I said, this passenger miles stat can be misleading. Lies...etc.

I hope I have not worried anyone now!

While I agree that the passenger mile figures can be misleading in a way, I don't agree that you'd be more likely to be killed spending more time in an aircraft. Think about all of the pilots in this country alone (circa 1200 IALPA members and then some) and the thousands of hours they fly in their lifetimes. Very, very rarely are any of them killed in aircraft accidents.

ShiddyArze

How many hours have Are Lingus and RyanAir flew in total since they started, and how many of there planes have crashed with fatalities? Lots and none I assume?

Dial Hard

ShiddyArze wrote:

How many hours have Are Lingus and RyanAir flew in total since they started, and how many of there planes have crashed with fatalities? Lots and none I assume?

Aer Lingus have only had one crash involving fatalities, afaik; Tuskar Rock in the 60s. Ryanair haven't had any.

Pat Dunne

ShiddyArze wrote: »

How many hours have Are Lingus and RyanAir flew in total since they started, and how many of there planes have crashed with fatalities? Lots and none I assume?

Both airline have excellent safety records.

EI had their last notable incident back in 1986 with no serious injuries or fatalities.
FR have had only one notable incident back in 2008, again with no serious injuries or fatalities.

Hours both airline have flown, well that is extreamly hard to quantify, but it in the millions, easily the 10's of millions. Look at it this way EI are celebrating 80 years in the business and FR are 32 years in business.

I'll take flying anyday of the week as the safest form of transport.

Poulgorm

lintdrummer wrote: »

While I agree that the passenger mile figures can be misleading in a way, I don't agree that you'd be more likely to be killed spending more time in an aircraft. Think about all of the pilots in this country alone (circa 1200 IALPA members and then some) and the thousands of hours they fly in their lifetimes. Very, very rarely are any of them killed in aircraft accidents.

Good Heavens, I specifically said I did not know. I was just asking the question.

I was only drawing attention to the passenger-miles statistic, which I tried to point out was a bit meaningless.

arubex

ShiddyArze wrote: »

How can I overcome this fear? It really ruined every holiday ive ever had as my only memories are the fear I had on the plane

Unfortunately the only techniques that I know involve spending money.

Here's one solution:

https://www.redletterdays.co.uk/experience/ref/xsfia/an-aerobatic-flight

Once you've done a few loops and stall-turns and perhaps boked-up your breakfast, you'll find airline flying as boring and undaunting as taking the bus.


I remember one of my first air-experience flights, in a Chipmunk, when the instructor asked 'Do you want sight-seeing or aeros?' Being a bit nervous I chose 'sight-seeing' and he replied 'Can't believe you said that, aeros it is then'. I never worried about flying after that...

12Phase

Even the difference in technology between modern aircraft and the Aer Lingus Vickers Vicount they crashed back in 1968 is massive.

You're talking about an aircraft built in 1957 vs modern Airbus and Boeing aircraft.

Consider for a moment how much safer a 21st century car is vs a 1957 Morris Minor and then factor in that aviation technology is even more aggressively pushed towards safety and you'll get a sense of how big a difference it it.

Also a lot of incidents in the past were human error. Modern fly by wire, much better instrumentation, easier to spot warnings and other onboard systems reduce the likelihood of those slip ups on mainstream commercial aircraft.

Consonata

crosstownk wrote: »

What is making the newspapers/media is pure speculation and the drive to fill airtime/columns. With 24hr news feed any half witted theory will get time. One theory leads to 2 more and those 2 to 2 more each....... ad infinitum and the real facts get left behind because they are usually few and won't fill the inches.

Best to not listen to it because it's all drivel that, wrongly, makes people afraid.

Oh, and don't ever read the Daily Mail for aviation related 'stories'.

This Springs to mind....

Wanderer2010

Update! Well believe it or not I survived both flights over and back. I have to say that reading up at length on the safety of commercial aircraft helped me hugely and thanks very much to those who sent on links about aircraft safety and turbulence facts etc. The flight over was fine not even a hint of turbulence and I was able to talk my way through take off and landing etc I even managed to bop to a few songs during the flight which got me a few odd looks!
However not everything was perfect. Something unsettling happened on my return overnight flight from America into Shannon. I was sitting in exit row both flights but on the return flight about a minute into take off I noticed drips of water coming down from some sealed area at the top of the exit row door and it got worse the higher we climbed I was getting very anxious but I noticed there was a kind of run off drain and no carpet at the end so the water was flowing into that plus the door was making a kind of crackle sound like popcorn for a good twenty mins after we hit cruising altitude. I've never seen or heard anything like that before and I probably should have mentioned it to an attendant but I didn't bother.
On top of this There was about ten mins of turbulence halfway through the flight but I kept calm as I knew the plane was able for that, I'm still a bit uneasy but a lot better than I was. Thanks again for the links.

Tenger

Were you on an Airbus by the way...that door condensation sounds very airbus to me. While I can see how you would find that disconcerting, I would bet the crew would barely have batted an eyelid. They would be used to it. Similar to the noises.

However no harm ever mentioning your nerves to the crew and asking about noises and our anything you see.

Nonoperational

You'll be a frequent flyer elite before long!

Locker10a

Wanderer2010 wrote: »

Update! Well believe it or not I survived both flights over and back. I have to say that reading up at length on the safety of commercial aircraft helped me hugely and thanks very much to those who sent on links about aircraft safety and turbulence facts etc. The flight over was fine not even a hint of turbulence and I was able to talk my way through take off and landing etc I even managed to bop to a few songs during the flight which got me a few odd looks!
However not everything was perfect. Something unsettling happened on my return overnight flight from America into Shannon. I was sitting in exit row both flights but on the return flight about a minute into take off I noticed drips of water coming down from some sealed area at the top of the exit row door and it got worse the higher we climbed I was getting very anxious but I noticed there was a kind of run off drain and no carpet at the end so the water was flowing into that plus the door was making a kind of crackle sound like popcorn for a good twenty mins after we hit cruising altitude. I've never seen or heard anything like that before and I probably should have mentioned it to an attendant but I didn't bother.
On top of this There was about ten mins of turbulence halfway through the flight but I kept calm as I knew the plane was able for that, I'm still a bit uneasy but a lot better than I was. Thanks again for the links.

Water dripping from seals on doors is completely normal and happens every day of the week! Also as the cabin pressurises you may hear clicks from the doors, again 100% normal and happens on every take off.