FIDE Candidates Tournament 2016

L1m1tless

Candidates Chess 2016 participants
1. Vishwanathan Anand (India) – The player who lost the 2014 World Championship Match
2. Sergey Karjakin (Russia) – as winner of the FIDE World Cup in Baku
3. Peter Svidler (Russia) – as the silver medalist of the FIDE World Cup in Baku
4. Fabiano Caruana (USA/Italy) – from FIDE Grand Prix 2014–15
5. Hikaru Nakamura (USA) – from FIDE Grand Prix 2014–15
6. Veselin Topalov (Bulgaria) – By rating
7. Anish Giri (Netherlands) – By rating
8. Levon Aronian (Armenia) – organizers nominee of rating higher than 2725 ELO

Caruana is my pick.

I think Giri would be great in a match vs Carlsen but can't see him winning enough games to make it there.

reunion

Also to note that games will be live at worldchess.com

Anand had a poor performance in Gibraltar but he could have been keeping some secrets.

Nakamura is my pick. Played well in Gibraltar.

Tim Harding

reunion wrote: »

Also to note that games will be live at worldchess.com

Anand had a poor performance in Gibraltar but he could have been keeping some secrets.

Nakamura is my pick. Played well in Gibraltar.

Gibraltar was a totally different type of tournament with a high premium on playing for a win. The Candidates, at least in the first cycle, will primarily be about not losing games, I think. One or two players (Topalov I hope) will get beaten two or three times perhaps but there are likely to be four or five stll in contention at half-way,
Nakamura was indeed impressive especially as he was ill at one stage, almost lost his voice.

Anand showed his inexperience (in recent times) in such events. For example, in one game he played with Black against a much lower-rated opponent a Semi-Slav line he uses to draw with top GMs, but when he tried to create some winning chances in the resulting ending he lost it instead.

Anand was unbeaten in the last Candidates but I think a few will take him on. I think Caruana has good prospects.

brilliantboy

reunion wrote: »

Also to note that games will be live at worldchess.com

And only on worldchess.com, if they're to get their wish.
https://www.chess.com/news/candidates-to-start-friday-agon-blocks-games-transmission-by-chess-sites-5161

Tim Harding

Round 1 pairings pit the two Russians and two Americans against each other:

Karjakin-Svidler
Nakamura-Caruana
Giri-Aronian
Anand-Topalov

Tim Harding

Round 2 at noon GMT Saturday:
Svidler v Topalov
Aronian v Anand
Caruana v Giri
Karjakin v Nakamura

In case anyone missed it, Vishy beat Topalov today and the others drew.

Tim Harding

Round 3 at noon GMT Sunday:

Nakamura (0.5) v Svidler (1)
Giri (1) v Karjakin (1.5)
Anand (1.5) v Caruana (1)
Topalov (0.5) v Aronian (1)


Caruana-Giri was interesting today but Nakamura made a horrible miscalculation against Karjakin.

In Lviv, Hou Yifan held the draw with Black against Mariya Muzychuk so the score is 5-3. She only needs a draw from two games to regain the Women's World Championship. Game 9 is on Monday.

Tim Harding

Aronian beat Topalov today, apparently the first time he's done it with Black. Topalov sac'd one pawn and then blundered another.

Nakamura ran into deep Svidler preparation. The fact that White's apparently fearsome attack had all been anticipated was clear because after about 23 moves Svidler had 5 minutes more on the clock than he started with.
The American ended up in a rook ending a pawn down, but held it.

Giri's draw was quite exciting but nothing much happened in Anand-Caruana.
Games are available from all the usual suspects.

Rest day tomorrow.

Pairings for round 4 on Tuesday:
Svidler (1.5) v Aronian (2)
Caruana (1.5) v Topalov (0.5)
Karjakin (2) v Anand (2)
Nakamura (1) v Giri (1.5)

Tim Harding

I saw very little of today's play as I was out most of the afternoon.

Nakamura-Giri was a 32-move draw with little time used by either side.
Karjakin beat Anand so he is now leading on +2 while Vishy is back to 50 percent.

Caruana missed a win against Topalov because of a very bad 41st move hallucination (he said in the press conference) and the game soon afterwards ended in a draw.
Aronian held the draw with Svidler and remains on +1. Nakamura stays on -1 and Topalov on -2.

Tomorrow's pairings:
Giri-Svidler
Anand-Nakamura
Topalov-Karjakin
Aronian-Caruana

Tim Harding

All four games were drawn today. Topalov might have played 16 Nxd5 though it looked very complicated and he perhaps feared another miscalculation.

Tomorrow:
Anand (2.5) v Svidler (2.5)
Topalov (1.5) v Giri (2.5)
Aronian (3) v Nakamura (2)
Caruana (2.5) v Karjakin (3.5)

That last one looks very important.

Tim Harding

It's a rest day today. Here's a wrap-up of round 6 yesterday.
Anand crushed Svidler in a miniature.
Nakamura got into trouble against Aronian, nearly saved it but went wrong in the endgame with clocks low.
After 1 d4 Nf6 2 c4 g6 Topalov tried 3 h4 (a move first played by Basman) but Giri converted it into a sort of Benko Gambit by 3...c5 4 d5 b5 and then varied from a recent game in the Moscow Aeroflot on which Topalov may have prepared an improvement. A typical Benko ending arose in which Black won his pawn back and then another but reduced material saved Topalov.
Caruana was close to beating Karjakin but he was afraid of a fortress arising with QvR+B. He overlooked a clever defensive resource which saved the Russian.

Tomorrow's round 7 will conclude the first half with the leaders meeting and also the back markers.

Svidler (2.5) v Caruana (3)
Karjakin (4) v Aronian (4)
Nakamura (2) v Topalov (2)
Giri (3) v Anand (3.5)

I think Svidler, Caruana, Aronian and Topalov are the players with four Whites in the second half so it's looking quite good for Aronian if he doesn't lose to Karjakin tomorrow.
Vishy is back on +1 so remains a serious contender.
Caruana is still in contention but his streak of failing to convert advantages needs to end.
Nakamura might beat Topalov but it's hard to see him winning the tournament now.

Can somebody else please post the round-up tomorrow night as I shall be away?

EnPassant

Just 1 win today, Nakamura beat Topalov.

Quick draw between Anand and Giri.
The 2 leaders Karjakin and Aronian drew also.
Svidler was a better against Caruana for a long time but drew in the end.

Giri and Caruana have drawn all 7 games of the first half of the tournament.
Karjakin and Aronian joint leaders on 4.5/7, half a point ahead of Anand.

Tomorrow at 12:00 Irish time:-

Svidler Peter v Karjakin Sergey
Caruana Fabiano v Nakamura Hikaru
Aronian Levon v Giri Anish
Topalov Veselin v Anand Viswanathan

Live commentary at http://worldchess.com/

Tim Harding

Thanks for that En Passant... I'm just back from the Cork congress which was won by Stephen Jessel (5.5/6, beating Sam Collins in round 5).

I only caught the end of today's play and am looking forward to watching round 9 in full tomorrow.
Here are today's results:

Again just one win today, Caruana beat Nakamura.

Svidler-Karjakin, Aronian-Giri and Topalov-Anand were drawn.

Karjakin and Aronian remain joint leaders on 5/8, half a point ahead of Anand and Caruan.
Svidler (3.5), Nakamura (3) and Topalov (2.5) can now forget about playing Magnus, I think.

Tomorrow at 12:00 Irish time:-

Topalov v Svidler
Anand v Aronian
Giri v Caruana
Nakamura v Karjakin

Nakamura is capable of downing Karjakin if he can get a plus from the opening and I'm hoping he can do it; it's his openings with Black that mostly seem to have gone wrong.

Giri has now drawn all eight games.
Svidler and Topalov are the others who have not won a game in the tournament yet. Maybe one of them will change that. It's hard to predict a decisive result in Giri-Caruana but Anand-Aronian could either be a dull draw or a great fight. Levon will want to efface the memory of his drubbing by Vishy in the rapid at Zurich a few weeks ago.

Live commentary at http://worldchess.com/

Tim Harding

I've just seen that GM Jan Gustafsson discusses today's decisive game at chess24:

Caruana-Nakamura-round-8-game-of-the-day

Tim Harding

Round nine again saw just one decisive game, though for a long time it looked as if there could be two or three.

Nakamura pushed for a while with a tiny edge against Karjakin but precise defence held the game to a draw just after the time control.

Anand played a fine positional win against Aronian, with a delicate (though perhaps imprecisely played) rook ending, which radically affects the leader board. I expect Jan Gustafsson will analyse this game on chess24 later tonight or tomorrow.

Vishy thus joins Karjakin on top while the Armenian GM slips back.

Svidler, Black against Topalov, allowed a nice early Nxf7! tactic, which broke up the position but Topalov continued his run of bad form when at move 32 he missed a line which the commentators showed would have forced the win of a piece in a few moves. After that Svidler was more or less OK and eventually held.

Giri drew again though this was the closest he has come to winning in the tournament.
Caruana played a risky novelty as Black in the 3 f3 Gruenfeld, but Giri refuted it at the board and Caruana's 18th move (played rapidly) was shown to be a horribly unsound pawn sac.

White was four pawns up at one stage although the position was immensely complicated. Somehow Caruana kept it alive despite getting into time trouble and he began reducing the deficit. At move 40 he was only one pawn down with Q and two bishops against Q and two knights.
Eventually one pair of minor pieces was exchanged and they fought on with increasing time shortage until they were both down to 30-second increments.
Finally after more than 7 hours play Giri played one repetition too many and Caruana claimed the draw (96 moves).

Tomorrow is another rest day and then the line-up on Wednesday (noon Irish time) will be as follows:

Svidler (4) v Nakamura (3.5)
Karjakin (5.5) v Giri (4.5)
Caruana (5) v Anand (5.5)
Aronian (5) v Topalov (3).

So this probably represents Aronian's best hope of getting back into the joint lead, especially as Giri will most likely draw again (!) and Caruana-Anand is likely to depend on deep opening preparation. If neither gets a big plus then a draw is likely there also. However Caruana did beat Anand twice in 2013 (with Black!). Their few other decisive games have come in rapid or blitz.

Tim Harding

A fun round today which again affects the leadership although in the end there was only one decisive game.

Karjakin-Giri began as a Semi-Slav anti-Meran but as often happens the early sharp play led to a dead level endgame, Giri's tenth draw out of ten.

The other three games all stemmed from the English variation 1 c4 e5 2 Nc3 Nf6 3 Nf3 Nc6 4 g3 Bb4 5 Bg2 0-0 6 0-0. Nakamura chose 6...d6; he equalised and drew against Svidler with no problems. Topalov played the same line slightly differently, then defended less precisely against Aronian. White obtained definite winning chances after some exchanges brought it to Q,R,B each with White's R on 7th and Black's passive, but then Aronian messed it up and allowed a rook exchange, after which he had to play carefully to secure a draw at the end. So he missed the chance to rejoin the leaders.

Instead of 6...d6, Vishy played the sharper 6...e4 which he has done before, but Caruana improved with 12 Qc2 and played a lovely game involving a bishop sac and Anand eventually had to give up the exchange. After some precise moves by Fabiano, the ex-champion had to resign on move 33.

Standings now:
Caruana & Karjakin 6pts (and Karjakin will have White in their last round game).
Anand and Aronian 5.5
Giri 5
Svidler 4.5
Nakamura 4
Topalov 3.5

Tomorrow's pairings:
Aronian-Svidler
Topalov-Caruana
Anand-Karjakin
Giri-Nakamura

Middle Man

Anand should probably have played for a draw as Black - hopefully he'll come back - he's still in contention. Must look at the game later tonight...

EnPassant

Middle Man wrote: »

Anand should probably have played for a draw as Black - hopefully he'll come back - he's still in contention. Must look at the game later tonight...

Because of the tie-break system, he needs to win 2 games more than Caruana out of the last 4 games ... I think he really needs to win tomorrow otherwise the same will apply with Karjakin.

Caruana and Karjakin have had identical results so far - it might need a play-off match to separate them if it carries on like this.

Tiebreak regulations are here https://www.fide.com/FIDE/handbook/regscandidates2016.pdf

Tim Harding

Middle Man wrote: »

Anand should probably have played for a draw as Black - hopefully he'll come back - he's still in contention. Must look at the game later tonight...

EnPassant wrote: »

Because of the tie-break system, he needs to win 2 games more than Caruana out of the last 4 games ... I think he really needs to win tomorrow otherwise the same will apply with Karjakin.

Caruana and Karjakin have had identical results so far - it might need a play-off match to separate them if it carries on like this.

Tiebreak regulations are here https://www.fide.com/FIDE/handbook/regscandidates2016.pdf

Personally, though I like and admire Vishy I don't really want to watch a third Anand-Carlsen match and would prefer Caruana to win through. Yes it could come down to a tiebreak with Karjakin (though only if their last round game is a draw).

ChessBase had some interesting stats before today's round and near the end you can see that Caruana now has a 42.5% chance of winning the tournament, Karjakin 27.6% and Vishy only 6.3% because he lost to Karjakin also, so now needs to be half point clear - unless strange results occur, as in a straight tie-break with Aronian it's Anand who comes first.

http://en.chessbase.com/post/computer-predictions-simulations-and-scenarios

As for Vishy playing for a draw today, I don't think that arose. Caruana did superb prep for his opening, starting with his new 12 Qc2 which improved on 12 Bg5 on Anand from last year's Sinquefield Cup.
From his post-mortem comments it was obvious he had had the position after his 17th move on the board at home, and already knew that Bxh6 was a key idea in the line.
In this game (as in his recovery yesterday against Giri) we see the almost unstoppable Caruana of the 2014 Sinquefield Cup.
Tomorrow's pairings favour him (he does have Black but Topalov is evidently off form), so at the end of round 11 Caruana could be in the sole lead, maybe even by a whole point, which would be pretty amazing considering the let-offs he donated last week to Topalov and Karjakin.

LATER: Jan Gustaffsson analyses the game on chess24:
https://chess24.com/en/live/video/caruana-1-0-anand--candidates-game-of-the-day

Tim Harding

Very strange day in Moscow today: two wins for the first time but not the ones that might have been expected around move 30. All games reached the first time control.

The most significant result was that Vishy Anand got back into the joint lead with a win against Karjakin (who suffered his first loss), in an instructive rook and opposite colour bishops endgame.

Caruana might have beaten Topalov with Black because he escaped from early difficulties (Topalov played an unusual exchange sacrifice) and was at one point clearly winning but very short of time. Topalov was allowed to improve the position of his pieces and could even have been better perhaps. Having made the time control, Caruana thought half an hour on his 41st move, made the correct move offering a draw and it was accepted.

Meanwhile Aronian, who had Svidler under strong pressure and even won a pawn, ran short of time in a position with queens and all four rooks. He made a terrible 35th move and then missed at least one clear opportunity to bail out for a draw. Soon after move 40 it became clear that Svidler (although still a pawn down) was the one trying to win and in fact Aronian's position soon collapsed. So 0-1 and the first win for Svidler.

Giri (White) had Nakamura under pressure throughout and then on move 50 played an incorrect combination after which he had to be satisfied with his 11th draw in succession.

Tomorrow's line-up is:
Svidler (5.5) v Giri (5.5)
Nakamura (4.5) v Anand (6.5)
Karjakin (6) v Topalov (4)
Caruana (6.5) v Aronian (5.5)

The only unbeaten players now are Caruana and Giri while the only players not to win a game in the tournament as yet are Topalov and Giri.

Tim Harding

The tension was raised another notch today and the players will doubtless be glad of their Saturday rest day.

Until now in the Candidates 1 e4 had always been met by 1...e5 but Topalov chose the Sicilian against Karjakin which to me looked like a suicide mission designed to revive the Russian's challenge and so it turned out. I am not actually accusing Topalov of throwing the game but given the relative current form of the players choosing the Najdorf guaranteed White excellent winning chances, the result was predictable and after 17...Rc8? Black was dead.

Actually this was not the first game to be decided because Vishy Anand was playing Black against Hikaru Nakamura, not his favourite opponent, and for the first time in the event the American's preparation came off. White's brilliant 10 e3 might look like a blunder, and Vishy couldn't resist 10...g5?! which attacked a knight on h4 that had no retreat. However Hikaru had it all worked out and the Indian GM went down in flames.
Vishy has been playing well with White in this event but this was his third loss with Black. This surely spells the end of any hopes (fears) of a third Anand-Carlsen match.

Anish Giri obtained an edge with Black against Peter Svidler and tried for over six hours in a rook and pawn ending but in the end it was draw number 12.
Vishy still has an outside chance but would need to break Giri's drawing streak in the next round.

Caruana-Aronian very nearly did Karjakin a big favour because somewhere in the early middle game Caruana spoiled a small edge and ended up in a passive situation with Qs and Rs on the board and Black having chances of a breakthrough to set up a decisive passed pawn. Final conclusions must await the players' notes but, judging from the commentary and postmortem interview at worldchess.com, Aronian missed at least two chances to force a win coming up to move 40. After move 40 it was =+ and the Armenian GM tried various things but there seemed to be no forced win and eventually Caruana maintained his unbeaten record and share of the lead.

Aronian's challenge is not quite over but he will need to win both the last two games and hope other results work out for him.

Everything is now shaping up to be decided by the last round clash on Monday where Karjakin will have White against Caruana, but before that comes round 13, which is on Sunday.

The line-up for that round is:
Caruana (7) v Svidler (6)
Aronian (6) v Karjakin (7)
Topalov (4) v Nakamura (5.5)
Anand (6.5) v Giri (6)

Then the last round will be:
Karjakin v Caruana
Svidler v Anand
Giri v Topalov
Nakamura v Aronian

Karjakin is now in pole position. He would, as it stands, win a head-to-head tiebreak with Caruana on the basis of more wins, so the American badly needs to outscore Karjakin in round 13, preferably with a win.

Tim Harding

Today there were two long games which eventually ended in draws: Caruana-Svidler came down to R and B v R and ended in a draw in 116 moves. Aronian had won a piece against Karjakin but the latter had a passed pawn on the 7th which tied White down and that went to 101 moves.
This means that Karkjakin and Caruana go into their last round clash level on points and half a point ahead of Anand who failed to overcome the Giri draw machine.
Today's only winner was Nakamura who beat the dreadfully out of form Topalov to reach 50 per cent.

Caruana's failure to win his won position against Topalov a couple of rounds ago could now come back to haunt him.

I haven't checked the tiebreak rules myself but from what I read on reputable websites only Karjakin or Caruana can now become Magnus Carlsen's challenger.

Moscow did not put clocks forward so round 14 starts at 1pm Irish summer time.

Pairings for the last round are:
Karjakin (7.5) v Caruana (7.5)
Svidler (6.5) v Anand (7)
Giri (6.5) v Topalov (4)
Nakamura (6.5) v Aronian (6.5)

Only the first two games have any bearing on first place, I believe.

The official website worldchess.com has just posted the following:
"The full report on scenarios concerning potential 3 way tie tomorrow will be up on <url>https://t.co/OfUCuEVxVi</url> before play starts tomorrow!"

Tiebreak 1 is results between the players in the tie.
Tiebreak 2 is most wins. Tiebreak 3 (Sonnerborn-Berger) won't be needed.

I am open to correction but I believe there are basically these possibilities:
a) Karjakin beats Caruana and wins the event outright.
b) Caruana beats Karjakin and wins the event outright.
c) They draw and Vishy does not win, in which case Karjakin becomes challenger thanks to tiebreak 2.
d) Caruana & Karjakin draw and Vishy beats Svidler to join them on 8 points. (This is the least likely case as Vishy has been doing badly with Black but it's never safe to write him off).

In that case tiebreak 1 would apply with Caruana on +1 (beat Vishy); Vishy beat Karjakin but lost to Caruana.

So two of the four scenarios favour Caruana but the scenarios which (given the colours for round 14) have the greater likelihood of occurring would favour Karjakin. I gather that there is no scenario which would see Vishy become challenger.

Still we have to recall that in the last Candidates there were unexpected last round results (both leaders lost) so I shall be rooting for Caruana and Vishy.

L1m1tless

Its seams wrong that, if Caruana and Karjakin draw and finish level on points, it then depends on if Anand wins or not.

A play-off would be a much better way of deciding it.

prey

@TimHarding
as reported Caruana missed a simple win with 111 Rb2, just in time per 50 move rule
@NeoNinja
agree, most likely result draw when another players result determines the challenger
at least the tiebreak was clearly set out in advance -a requirement often overlooked even in Irish Ch. and Armstrong Cup events here with very unsatisfactory outcomes

either candidate a very serious challenger for Carlsen

Tim Harding

prey wrote: »

@TimHarding
as reported Caruana missed a simple win with 111 Rb2, just in time per 50 move rule
@NeoNinja
agree, most likely result draw when another players result determines the challenger
at least the tiebreak was clearly set out in advance -a requirement often overlooked even in Irish Ch. and Armstrong Cup events here with very unsatisfactory outcomes

either candidate a very serious challenger for Carlsen

Actually it was 102...Ka4?? which should have lost the game but matters in this R+B v R are very rarely simple.
After that Caruana played the only winning moves at 103 and 104 but a suboptimal move at 105. As indicated, Rb2 was best and would (if followed up with perfect tablebase-confirmed play) have forced Black to resign at move 113 as the only way to avert mate next move would have been to give up the rook. If there was no capture, Caruana had to deliver mate by move 116.

So when the same chance to play Rb2 (with identical position) arose at move 111, it would have been fairly easy for Svidler to hold out to move 166.

I agree the terms were known to all in advance and no tie-break or play-off is entirely fair. At least this way the decision will come entirely by play at the classical time-limit.

I also think that if it was only Karjakin-Caruana today the Russian would fairly comfortably get a draw. The fact that Anand might win makes it much more interesting; Karjakin cannot count on a draw being sufficient and so probably needs to play a sharper opening where three results may be possible.

Remember that play starts at 1pm Irish time.

Tim Harding

Karjakin will be Carlsen's challenger.
Caruana played a Sicilian (Richter-Rauzer) and found some enterprising moves to keep chances but after Anand's game was drawn, Caruana had to win.
Karjakin's move 30 was very sharp and not best giving Black some slight winning chances, but Caruana blundered at move 35 and it was quickly over.
Caruana is left to rue the several winning positions that he failed to convert during the tournament.

Giri had his 14th draw and Nakamura-Aronian, though more lively, was also drawn.