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In-running trades

  • 26-02-2016 1:11pm
    #1
    Whosthis
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,342 ✭✭✭


    Thought I'd post this here for something a little different. The plan is to take BSP and lay off for a green book with around a 20% profit in-running. I'm using Gruss so everything is automated. I don't have access to fast pictures or anything like that so the selections are made by trying to identify the pace and hope that the market reacts accordingly. The races are all handicaps apart from the 15.10 Warwick which is a novice handicap. I usually enjoy a punt on the low grade AW stuff but for the purposes of this thread I've left the grade 6 kind of nonsense alone. You'll also notice that there's nothing from Dundalk, I find the volume of trading on Irish in-play racing to be very low and is best left alone. I'm open to thoughts/criticism/encouragement.

    14:50 Exeter
    Pemba

    15:10 Warwick
    Cheat The Cheater

    15:35 Lingfield Park
    Arnold Lane

    15:45 Warwick
    Renard

    15:55 Exeter
    Saroque

    16:15 Warwick
    As De Fer

    16:40 Lingfield Park
    Gabster

    17:00 Exeter
    Precious Ground

    17:30 Exeter
    Old Magic

    19:45 Wolverhampton
    Yul Finegold


Comments

  • #2
    matthew8
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,599 ✭✭✭matthew8


    Cheat The Cheater is possibly the last horse I'd want for this sort of thing. He's the laziest horse in training and really the way to play him would be the other way round, lay at BSP and back him at bigger prices in running. He's won having traded 980 (from 9.78 BSP) and 29 (from 8.4 BSP). Pemba also mightn't be ideal for this, not sure she'll make the running and she looked a little bit outpaced for a few strides at Catterick (hit 3.95 in running from a BSP of 1.57 before winning readily), though the step up in trip should enable her to travel better. Good luck.


  • #3
    Whosthis
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,342 ✭✭✭Whosthis


    matthew8 wrote: »
    Cheat The Cheater is possibly the last horse I'd want for this sort of thing. He's the laziest horse in training and really the way to play him would be the other way round, lay at BSP and back him at bigger prices in running. He's won having traded 980 (from 9.78 BSP) and 29 (from 8.4 BSP). Pemba also mightn't be ideal for this, not sure she'll make the running and she looked a little bit outpaced for a few strides at Catterick (hit 3.95 in running from a BSP of 1.57 before winning readily), though the step up in trip should enable her to travel better. Good luck.

    Cheat The Cheater is the one I had questions about myself. This is probably 90% pace based but I've also gone fairly deep into their IR performance, particularly in similar contests to today's (Class,Distance,Ground,Field Size,Opposition). The selection still made the cut but the biggest thing that would put me off is that its a Novice Chase, too many unknowns in the field and i should probably leave it alone.

    As for Pemba, I don't really see anything in the field that's going to press on, I think it could be quite close quarters for a good distance between 3 or 4 with Pemba stretching on in the latter stages.


  • #4
    Whosthis
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,342 ✭✭✭Whosthis


    In an out on Pemba anyway, BSP 2.82 out at 2.44. Going to leave Cheat The Cheater.


  • #5
    Whosthis
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,342 ✭✭✭Whosthis


    Whosthis wrote: »
    Going to leave Cheat The Cheater.

    Richard Johnson, take a bow.


  • #6
    matthew8
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,599 ✭✭✭matthew8


    Wins having traded 60 in running from a BSP of 5.46. I was on the horse who pulled himself up when well clear turning in, threw it away. Excellent ride by Johnson.


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  • #7
    Whosthis
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,342 ✭✭✭Whosthis


    matthew8 wrote: »
    Wins having traded 60 in running from a BSP of 5.46. I was on the horse who pulled himself up when well clear turning in, threw it away. Excellent ride by Johnson.

    Some ride, he was at work from 3 or 4 furlongs in, left for dead at one stage and gets back up.


  • #8
    Whosthis
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,342 ✭✭✭Whosthis


    So, 7/8 successful trades so far. That doesn't quite tell the whole story though, some of the trades although successful didn't really perform as I'd envisioned. Think I'll try and refine it somewhat to just out and out front runners. Not sure if I'll be around for the 7.45 so this is as it stands. First number is back price,second is lay and the the third in brackets is the lowest it traded IR.

    14:50 Exeter
    Pemba 2.82 2.44 (2.06) :)

    15:35 Lingfield Park
    Arnold Lane 3.41 2.96 (2.52) :)

    15:45 Warwick
    Renard 4.7 3.95 (2.5) :)

    15:55 Exeter
    Saroque 10.0 8.2 (5.00) :)

    16:15 Warwick
    As De Fer 6.2 5.1 (4.4) :)

    16:40 Lingfield Park
    Gabster 14.93 12.0 (13.0) :(

    17:00 Exeter
    Precious Ground 7.63 6.4 (6.2) :)

    17:30 Exeter
    Old Magic 17.00 13.50 (8.4) :)


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