Coral Welsh National

Nulty · 06-01-2016 11:01pm #1

Hoping of course that it goes ahead on Saturday, i have backed Mountainous after his run in the London National on unsuitable ground.

The other one is Folsom Blue who I've backed at 40s win only cause I'm waiting to see if he's sent over. He'll be made for this. Backed him in the Paddy Power over Christmas and really liked how he ran in that considering how competitive it is. He didn't have the speed at the end for them but over 3,5 at Chepstow he won't need speed, he has everything he needs. Not worried about the quick turn around, he ran 4 times in a month and a half this time last year, winning his third race over 28f in heavy ground at Punchestown.

Mouse sent First Lieutenent over to the UK this season and he ran well. He can get them ready for a trip. Just under 50% of his chasers placed in races in the UK in the past 5 years.

Harry Angstrom · 06-01-2016 11:24pm

It's already heavy at Chepstow, there's got to be a big doubt about the meeting going ahead at this stage. If it does go ahead, Emperors Choice is a bit of E/W value at 10/1. Won it last year and did well to win at Haydock first time out. I don't have too many betting systems but it usually pays to back a Venetia Williams runner in gluepot ground over extreme staying distances.

BumperD · 06-01-2016 11:46pm

Venetia definitely likes the mud flying. Mullins has a few entries earlier in the card. Tour des champs for me if the race goes ahead given its recent form, were some fancy prices around last week but now about 12's

longshotvalue · 07-01-2016 8:13am

Nulty wrote: »

Hoping of course that it goes ahead on Saturday, i have backed Mountainous after his run in the London National on unsuitable ground.

The other one is Folsom Blue who I've backed at 40s win only cause I'm waiting to see if he's sent over. He'll be made for this. Backed him in the Paddy Power over Christmas and really liked how he ran in that considering how competitive it is. He didn't have the speed at the end for them but over 3,5 at Chepstow he won't need speed, he has everything he needs. Not worried about the quick turn around, he ran 4 times in a month and a half this time last year, winning his third race over 28f in heavy ground at Punchestown.

Mouse sent First Lieutenent over to the UK this season and he ran well. He can get them ready for a trip. Just under 50% of his chasers placed in races in the UK in the past 5 years.

I'm all over that as well and just waiting for the 5 places and nrnb. Also had a tiny bit of that same 40/1..

Francie Barrett · 07-01-2016 11:43am

Folsom Blue the very clear value bet for this and I couldn't put anyone off doing it each way. However, I think my pick is the winner. Red Devil Lads ran a very decent second place last time out on season reappearance against Katkeau, a more experienced horse that had the run under its belt. Think the in running comments were very telling for this.

Tended to jump left, pecked 1st, close up until led after 2nd, headed 3 out, mistake next, no extra flat (op 8/1)

Seems fairly clear that the horse wasn't too comfortable going left handed, so I am very much heartened to see it going the other way at Chepstow. 6-8 year olds have cleaned up in this race over the past 10 years, so this one hits that stat bang in the nose just turning 7. Has shown it's an improver, winning the three races before that on the trot. Has shown it loves the muck, the trip of 3M+ should be no problem either. 16/1 a terrific price.

tipptom · 07-01-2016 6:39pm

Word on the street says the McManuses are very sweet on John Joes horse.

naughto · 07-01-2016 10:04pm

Got word that Portrait king should be in the mix at the end

ipitydafool · 07-01-2016 10:17pm

What do people think of Woodford county chances of getting in? needs 5 more to come out to get in, 2 of which look certainties. Won well lto over 3m6 in the mud and went off fav for the race last year. Hobbs seems very keen on him and ticks all boxes from stats POV. Around 20/1 best price at mo but can see that shorten if it gets in

BumperD · 07-01-2016 10:54pm

tipptom wrote: »

Word on the street says the McManuses are very sweet on John Joes horse.

When "word" gets out for one of his, that normally signals they have zero chance of winning. I learnt this the hard way.

realdanbreen · 08-01-2016 6:49am

BumperD wrote: »

When "word" gets out for one of his, that normally signals they have zero chance of winning. I learnt this the hard way.

Exactly. The 'word' was out for gilgamboa in leopardstown as well only for another McManus horse minnella foryou to get up and win. JP didn't get where he is by putting the 'word' out about his horses.

Stacksey · 08-01-2016 10:02am

realdanbreen wrote: »

Exactly. The 'word' was out for gilgamboa in leopardstown as well only for another McManus horse minnella foryou to get up and win. JP didn't get where he is by putting the 'word' out about his horses.

Haha exactly, where exactly did JP get all his millions from? I'd love to know, one of these days we'll see a primetime investigates programme about him

Taff · 08-01-2016 10:07am

Note the race time has been brought forward - now at 1.45

cson · 08-01-2016 10:07am

Stacksey wrote: »

Haha exactly, where exactly did JP get all his millions from? I'd love to know, one of these days we'll see a primetime investigates programme about him

Currency trading.

Stacksey · 08-01-2016 10:11am

cson wrote: »

Currency trading.

Buy low and sell high high eh? think its time to try a bit of currency trading myself and then look at the prospect of mastering the art of handicapped good things

tipptom · 08-01-2016 10:40am

Stacksey wrote: »

Buy low and sell high high eh? think its time to try a bit of currency trading myself and then look at the prospect of mastering the art of handicapped good things

I think JPs gambling on horses these days is small beer compared to what he makes on the markets.

Even the 17m he took of the Israeli/ American guy from backgammon and poker!!
He is now suing the IRS to get 4m of the tax of it that was withheld because he pays a certain tax in Ireland!

Incidentally the tip came from his son but I take the point of the peril of backing JPs horses but I have had pretty good luck from his horses.

Francie Barrett · 08-01-2016 10:46am

tipptom wrote: »

He is now suing the IRS to get 4m of the tax of it that was withheld because he pays a certain tax in Ireland!

Wasn't that for gambling as well?

hurleronditch · 08-01-2016 11:22am

Stacksey wrote: »

Buy low and sell high high eh? think its time to try a bit of currency trading myself and then look at the prospect of mastering the art of handicapped good things

You wouldn't make much money currency trading buying low and selling high!!!!!

Buy a nominal million euro worth of dollars at 1.05, and sell it back at 1.10.

Not the greatest transaction!! Buy high, sell low on the currencies

BumperD · 08-01-2016 1:09pm

Stacksey wrote: »

Haha exactly, where exactly did JP get all his millions from? I'd love to know, one of these days we'll see a primetime investigates programme about him

Currency trading for the most part, along with gambling so hats off to him. I know slightly off topic but here's a recent one on his gambling which obviously we rarely get insight to. Must have been bigger than my kitchen table to hold all that cash at a card game with the lads

http://m.independent.ie/irish-news/courts/mcmanus-to-fight-us-government-over-48m-tax-bill-34335951.html

tipptom · 08-01-2016 1:43pm

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Wasn't that for gambling as well?

Yea,the initial sum was gambling on poker and backgammon,the 4.5 is what he says the irs should not have taxed him on the amount as he says he pays tax in Ireland but what I am saying that even though these are huge figures his main income is from the markets if you can call that not gambling!

One thing that confuses me about this is if this was underground gambling why was the taxman involved at all?

He is reputed to be worth 6.5b so it works no matter what you call it and I don't think many people begrudge him because he is a gentleman.

Francie Barrett · 08-01-2016 3:03pm

Folsom Blue non-runner.

danganabu · 08-01-2016 3:04pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Exactly. The 'word' was out for gilgamboa in leopardstown as well only for another McManus horse minnella foryou to get up and win. JP didn't get where he is by putting the 'word' out about his horses.

There was plenty of word for the winner in that race, the gamble on Gilgamboa seemed to come very late and snowballed.

danganabu · 08-01-2016 3:10pm

Will be on Mountainous myself, proven course and distance, back down to its winning mark of 132 from two years ago and a trainer and jockey both of whom are in a rich vein of form.

Have been very impressed with Kerry Lee since she took over the reins actually and she has a near 20% strike rate this season.

realdanbreen · 08-01-2016 9:45pm

danganabu wrote: »

the gamble on Gilgamboa seemed to come very late and snowballed.

Really? Gilgamboa was favourite for 4 days before the race!:

Francie Barrett · 08-01-2016 10:54pm

Richard Johnson being sent over to Kempton instead of Chepstow is very telling for Hobbs runners tomorrow.

mailburner · 08-01-2016 11:07pm

backed mountainous at 10s on monday for reasons mentioned above
probably shouldve gone ew though

mailburner · 08-01-2016 11:12pm

tipptom wrote: »

I think JPs gambling on horses these days is small beer compared to what he makes on the markets.

Even the 17m he took of the Israeli/ American guy from backgammon and poker!!
He is now suing the IRS to get 4m of the tax of it that was withheld because he pays a certain tax in Ireland!

Incidentally the tip came from his son but I take the point of the peril of backing JPs horses but I have had pretty good luck from his horses.

recall his son gave a tip to the locals at the galway festival..name escapes me but ran a stinker
he was drinking in a bar there with ruby (might have been mcgettigans)

JJs Left Hand · 08-01-2016 11:59pm

Bob Ford and Portrait King for me.

Bob Ford to hunt around and be the only one to finish.

mailburner · 09-01-2016 12:02am

JJs Left Hand wrote: »

Bob Ford to hunt around and be the only one to finish.

or be the first to pull up

owes me nothing having backed him last time out so a small bet on bob also

danganabu · 09-01-2016 12:06am

realdanbreen wrote: »

Really? Gilgamboa was favourite for 4 days before the race!:

And?? It wasn't backed until a couple of hours before the off when it was hammered.

And here is proof that there was plenty of word for the winner http://www.irishpokerboards.com/forum/showthread.php?t=167&page=333

kksaints · 09-01-2016 12:24am

Would be half tempted to pick Bob Ford if the ground is going to be extremely heavy but I think Emperor's Choice should get a second win in the race. Has proven stamina and has won on heavy ground and is decent value at around 10/1.

thesaturdayman · 09-01-2016 12:36am

I'm all over shotgun paddy tomorrow, very well in at the weights, decent mark, love the ground, stays like a buck & conditions to suit. The excellent front running jock Gavin Sheehan will steer him to at least a top 3 finish. Value of the race at 12s.

Elsewhere captainofindustry 5/1, grandads horse 12/1 & at kemp star of the sea 13/2 are cracking punting propositions all at ew backable prices. Best of luck men.

ipitydafool · 09-01-2016 1:05am

Grounds going to be extremely heavy for the race and chance of more rain - http://m.racingpost.com/#news-story/story_id=2015702. Can see why people like mountainous but with only one winner of the race over double digits in age over last 40 years can't be on it. Have gone with tour des camps and Woodford county, both going to be carrying less than 10 stone when jockeys claims taken, have both won around here on heavy ground and open to more improvement. Be surprised if more than half the field finish if conditions come out as promised, I'm hoping it pays to be with some featherweights.

realdanbreen · 09-01-2016 1:13am

danganabu wrote: »

And?? It wasn't backed until a couple of hours before the off when it was hammered.

And here is proof that there was plenty of word for the winner http://www.irishpokerboards.com/forum/showthread.php?t=167&page=333

I think you need to actually attend a race meeting some time rather than follow the horses on a laptop. A 28 horse grade 2 3miler with big prize money and you think you get a 'tip' or 'word' on a JP horse? In the real world you get the 'word' once or twice a year and usually it would be a bumper in the Junction or an evening meeting in Ballinrobe or Kilbeggan not the Christmas meeting in Leopardstown.

danganabu · 09-01-2016 1:16am

This is from the lad that was lookin for 5/1 tips for a L15 not too long ago

:D

You have tried trolling me before and you eventually got bored, I'll make it simple for you and put you on ignore.

gazza1 · 09-01-2016 1:17am

Not a race to get heavily involved in so for an interest ive had an ew plunge on FOUROVAKIND @25/1 carrying just 10-1. Trainer also has an excellent strike rate at the track and the horse has won over 3m here even though it was a class 4. Was fav for his first run of the season at lingfield over 3m class 3 but jumped out to the right but hopefully that run will have blown away the cobwebs
GL2A

Francie Barrett · 09-01-2016 1:19am

realdanbreen wrote: »

I think you need to actually attend a race meeting some time rather than follow the horses on a laptop. A 28 horse grade 2 3miler with big prize money and you think you get a 'tip' or 'word' on a JP horse? In the real world you get the 'word' once or twice a year and usually it would be a bumper in the Junction or an evening meeting in Ballinrobe or Kilbeggan not the Christmas meeting in Leopardstown.

That is not true. I was told about The Druids Nephew (and posted it on here) miles in advance of it actually running at Cheltenham last year, and way before it even had an entry. It bolted up and it was just one of many.

realdanbreen · 09-01-2016 1:27am

Francie Barrett wrote: »

That is not true. I was told about The Druids Nephew (and posted it on here) miles in advance of it actually running at Cheltenham last year, and way before it even had an entry. It bolted up and it was just one of many.

But Francie you post about horses that you are 'told' about almost on a daily basis. The fact that you can remember one of them,the druids nephew ,actually winning proves my point.

BumperD · 09-01-2016 6:41am

realdanbreen wrote: »

But Francie you post about horses that you are 'told' about almost on a daily basis. The fact that you can remember one of them,the druids nephew ,actually winning proves my point.

No. He posts about horses he is told about rarely, rather than on a daily basis. Stop making up things. Francie is as genuine as it gets Dan.

chonghmfc · 09-01-2016 9:02am

BERTIE BORU
Looks nicely weighted on best form, placed fourth (of 15) behind Carole's Destrier over 3 and a half miles at Sandown in early December looked to be spot on for the original date and I'm sure the extra ten days cant have harmed him in anyway. Mountainous was behind that day and they go on the same terms today, surely the value lies with Bertie. Hobbs could land the Grade One Finale Junior Hurdle with JABOLTISKI.
Best of luck today y'all.

Rock Lesnar · 09-01-2016 10:55am

Red Devil Lads for me

prettyboy81 · 09-01-2016 10:56am

Cogry for me in this one!

Copper_pipe · 09-01-2016 10:57am

Cogry for me also

danganabu · 09-01-2016 11:06am

ipitydafool wrote: »

Grounds going to be extremely heavy for the race and chance of more rain - http://m.racingpost.com/#news-story/story_id=2015702. Can see why people like mountainous but with only one winner of the race over double digits in age over last 40 years can't be on it. Have gone with tour des camps and Woodford county, both going to be carrying less than 10 stone when jockeys claims taken, have both won around here on heavy ground and open to more improvement. Be surprised if more than half the field finish if conditions come out as promised, I'm hoping it pays to be with some featherweights.

I agree it's definitely a concern, but the one thing to remember is that this race is normally run two weeks earlier so for the purpose of this race and trends/stats Mountainous ( and all the horses) are actually a year younger than the racecard.