Are Villa already too far gone?

Bounty Hunter

Following their promotion in 1988, Villa have been in the top flight for 27 consecutive campaigns (28 by seasons end), and as of this season, 104 in total (105 by seasons end). That has them placed only behind Everton historically as the team to have spent the most time in the top flight of English football.

That said atm Villa are 8pts and 8 goals behind the team in 17th already and were only 16 games into the season.

Is it already too late for them? Are the biggest team from the midlands already relegated in your eyes? Could we have another Leeds on our hands? Or is it possible something can still be salvaged?

callaway92

Bounty Hunter wrote: »

Is it already too late for them? Are the biggest team from the midlands already relegated in your eyes? Could we have another Leeds on our hands? Or is it possible something can still be salvaged?

No - Villa are not broke.

Relegation will do them good imo. The club needs a good shake up/refresh (see West Ham, Southampton).

They'll be fine if they go down.

Pudders

Next 4 games decide their fate.
Includes Newcastle, Norwich and Sunderland. Need to take at least 6 points from that are they are doomed.

Richard Hillman

They stink of a club that are just going through the motions. They have been making the numbers up for years. They need a complete rejuvenation from top to bottom.

I don't think they will be a yo-yo club. I think they will either become something irrelevant like Sheffield Wednesday (used to be big, large ground, decent attendances) or will come back after a few years with a new lease of life.

The club is dead at the moment. Going down should be looked as a positive thing.

Father Hernandez

IMO, I think there season is over unfortunately. Remi Garde is a decent manager yes, but he is relatively new to the managerial scene, especially in England. Villa needed a Sam Allardyce, Alan Pardew, Tony Pulis kind of manager to save them from relegation. Remi Garde is the sort of manager you'd want around the top 10 mark.

Even the players they have are a serious mis match of players bought in the hope they'll surprise everyone. Benteke is a big loss seeing as goals have dried up. A calamity of errors over the last few seasons has seen Villa in this state unfortunately and if they do inevitably go down, I think they'll even struggle to come back up. They are a big club with a big stadium and the Championship is only getting better and better, teams will go to Villa Park and it'd be like a cup final for them, certainly looks like it could be another Leeds..

GavRedKing

Lerner didnt spend the right money on replacing Benteke and Delph, IMO.

The guy clearly wants out but he made the right call sacking Sherwood IMO, Garde hasnt done anything of note yet, sometimes a team that changes manager has a few weeks of decent results and performances straight after the change, Villa havent had that yet but they certainly didnt deserve to lose to Watford.

Theyve the bones of the decent squad, not the worst in the league IMO but theyre running out of games to save their season.

JPA

Pudders wrote: »

Next 4 games decide their fate.
Includes Newcastle, Norwich and Sunderland. Need to take at least 6 points from that are they are doomed.

The situation is worse than that, at least 10 points is needed. A complete u turn in form is needed when there's been no indication that's even possible.

JPA

Gil, Grealish, Traore, Sinclair, Ayew, Veretout and Agbonlahor look like decent attacking support but somebody to put the ball in the net is missing.

cson

Garde won't do it.

Tbh in these situations you need a Tony Pulis type English manager to galvanise a team. In fairness its a disservice to Pulis as he actually tends to do quite well but there's a type of manager that's good in these backs to wall situations (Allardyce for example) and I don't think Garde is it.

Lerner is a bit shortsighted here imo; they'll be a far harder and significantly less expensive sell if they're in the Championship. The likes of Leeds, Bolton, Birmingham... should all be very instructive.

listermint

2 things need to occur

Villa need a strike. They have actually had reasonable performances of late, but cannot score for love nor money.

Need a striker immediately.



2nd Lerner has to go hes dragging the club out of the Premier League with 4 years of penny pinching economics.

The club is being run with all the spending power of St Pats

BUNK1982

Villa are gone and as an act of mercy there should be a media black out until the start of the Championship next season to save us any further embarrassment.

It's the culmination of 6yrs of baffling decisions at a board level starting with the appointment of Alex McLeish. The current team are so used to losing and conceding goals that it simply has no effect on them so even the appointment of Big Sam or Tony Pulis wouldn't have helped none.

greendom

They're almost certainly gone and should now be preparing for winning the Championship next season. If they don't think Garde is the man for that they should get rid now.

5starpool

It's not too late, but it is looking unlikely that Villa can put together a run of games to take them out of the relegation zone. However, to borrow a phrase from Jimmy Greavsie, it's a funny old game. Stranger things have happened, but they could just as easily get relegated with a record low points total given how things are spiraling.

I like Villa generally so would like to see them stay up.

secman

If 40 points is the magic no. They need 34 points.... 10 wins 4 draws and 8 more defeats. Can see 10 defeats... Probably 5 draws but 10 wins ..... No

Yep I think they are gone ......

monkey9

I'm starting to think they are actually going down. I never really believed it before, maybe it was too big to go down type thinking from myself. But they're already getting cut adrift at the bottom of the table and i can't see them going on a good run that will lift them above other teams.

The next six games or so will tell a lot about their future as they're not fixtures away at big clubs, but are the type of fixtures they really need to get wins from in order to save themselves.

eagle eye

What Villa need more than anything is a new owner.

Time and again as I get older it's becoming more and more clear that the most important person at a club is the owner(s).

Lerner was the owner of the Cleveland Browns NFL team after his father passed away and he made a mess of that organisation. The same thing has happened at Villa now.

If you look at a lot of clubs that have struggled in recent times, notably the team I follow Blackburn Rovers, you will see that the owners are responsible for them falling to pieces.

In the case of Rovers it was all over the media but in a lot of cases you really don't hear much about these bad owners.

BMMachine

BUNK1982 wrote: »

Villa are gone and as an act of mercy there should be a media black out until the start of the Championship next season to save us any further embarrassment.

It's the culmination of 6yrs of baffling decisions at a board level starting with the appointment of Alex McLeish. The current team are so used to losing and conceding goals that it simply has no effect on them so even the appointment of Big Sam or Tony Pulis wouldn't have helped none.

oh god, alex mcleish... absolutely insane wasn't it

I think they are gone. I dont see redemption this season. They need that same kick up their arse newcastle got when they went down. They sold their 2 best players and didnt replace them properly. The whole club needs to be revitalised imo

machiavellianme

I hope they are gone. Too much of a bogey team and offer nothing anymore.
No ability to change or reinvent themselves doesn't bode well.

Guy:Incognito

Are Villa and the Premier League done...........................?:)

sabat

It's a pity, I think a lot of fans around my age would maybe still have Villa in a higher bracket than their true position, thanks to that great team with some great Irish players they had under Big Ron. I remember going to see them play Shels, the first time I went to a match on my own, around 1991.

bad2dabone

I've a soft spot for villa, it saddens me to say they're looking like certainties for the drop.
It might be cathartic for the club in the long term.
But it seems to me that they really need a change of ownership

Rikand

A friend of mine who is a villa fan has been hoping they'd go down for a couple of years now. Team needs a clean out, root to tip,

Strumms

I think they will go down. They don't seem to have any leaders as such in that squad. Lot's of players who are reliability new to the PL and inexperienced. I also think there is just a lack of quality. They have a new manager who under different circumstances may have done well but I think they would have even been better off with the likes of Harry Redknapp until the end of the season on a short term basis. At least someone who knows what it's like to have to tough it out down the bottom in what is the most competitive league in the world.

Unearthly

Rikand wrote: »

A friend of mine who is a villa fan has been hoping they'd go down for a couple of years now. Team needs a clean out, root to tip,

This is a ridiculous attitude and opinion. Wanting the team you support to get relegated?

The money difference between Prem and Championship is so vast that staying in the league is more important than ever

bradlente

Doesn't seem that long ago we were watching them challenge for Europe, hard to see them recovering under an owner that doesn't want them.

CSF

Unearthly wrote: »

This is a ridiculous attitude and opinion. Wanting the team you support to get relegated?

The money difference between Prem and Championship is so vast that staying in the league is more important than ever

Yeah that person is not a Villa fan.

Turtyturd

Hopefully.

Paully D

They've got a fantastic run of games coming up between now and the end of February.

Newcastle (A), West Ham (H), Norwich (A), Sunderland (A), Palace (H), Leicester (H), WBA (A), West Ham (A), Norwich (H)

You can't ask for much better than that really.

Buford T. Justice XIX

CSF wrote: »

Yeah that person is not a Villa fan.

There were Villa fans on this forum not so long ago looking for their team to lose a game.

I'll shed no tears for them, tbh.

CSF

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

There were Villa fans on this forum not so long ago looking for their team to lose a game.

I'll shed no tears for them, tbh.

I'm not sure anyone wanted the team to lose a game. I remember the general consensus being wanting a win, but recognising that a draw could have been more damaging long-term than a defeat in that it probably would have continued the bizarre Sherwood tactics for longer, and given the new manager less time to turn it around.

If anyone was sitting watching it hoping for Swansea to win then yes I agree they are not Villa fans.

L'prof

I dunno, they're not very good at the moment but with all the signings they made during the summer is expect them to finish the season far better than they started it. 22 games is plenty of time to make up 8 points they just don't seem likely to pick up very many at the moment.

Arghus

I think it's still a bit too early to be writing them off entirely at this stage. There's a lot of road left to run in the season yet, but if they can't get something out of the next four or five games - which don't look unduly daunting - they'll probably have to be considered goners.

I'm not a Villa fan, but I find it a sad sight to see them at the foot of the table. They're a proud club with a great history. Even their kit is nice. For sure, the Premier League would be a poorer place without Villa Park. I guess I feel for them because they've gone from having Champions League aspirations, to gradually sliding all the way down the table, year by year, in a really depressing fashion. They've just withered away, without even having the grim excitement of a spectacular collapse. I know a few Villa fans and I remember to move the subject away from football if I'm talking and they are in the room. It's just too depressing for the poor guys, they can't even summon the cathartic fury anymore.

Giggsy11

I wouldn't say it's too late, especially when it comes to relegation placed teams. Almost every season one of the bottom teams goes on a good streak and they are safe, even last season Leicester were dead and out but somehow managed to save themselves, before that Sunderland, WBA, Fulham have all done that.

topmanamillion

West Brom a few years back taught me to never write a team off, but it certainly a perilous situation. If they don't start picking up a few points soon then they're in danger of being cut adrift.

For me it stems from the end of the MON era. They were at a cross roads then, either back him and push on for the CL or drop down into midtable/relegation. They choose the later, I can't blame them and it was probably the smart thing to do when you think about the likes of Leeds and Portsmouth.

But they have been stagnating since and if they end up relegated it'll be the culmination of 5 years of poor decisions.

The_Kew_Tour

Be bad for away fans as it's a great away trip, but they are in big trouble

blueser

Paully D wrote: »

They've got a fantastic run of games coming up between now and the end of February.

Newcastle (A), West Ham (H), Norwich (A), Sunderland (A), Palace (H), Leicester (H), WBA (A), West Ham (A), Norwich (H)

You can't ask for much better than that really.

Especially that Sunderland game; that's a nailed on 3 points for Villa.

bucketybuck

Even if they do find some form and scrape survival, you get the sense it would be just delaying the inevitable and they will be back in this situation next season. They are in a definite downward spiral and a good run now doesn't seem like it would change much long term.

Its like there isn't a strategy or a vision at Villa, they have been drifting into irrelevancy for the last ten years and eventually they will be gone, at which point nobody will even notice.

Buford T. Justice XIX

CSF wrote: »

I'm not sure anyone wanted the team to lose a game. I remember the general consensus being wanting a win, but recognising that a draw could have been more damaging long-term than a defeat in that it probably would have continued the bizarre Sherwood tactics for longer, and given the new manager less time to turn it around.

If anyone was sitting watching it hoping for Swansea to win then yes I agree they are not Villa fans.

Back further.

13/14 season....;)

LuckyLloyd

bucketybuck wrote: »

Even if they do find some form and scrape survival, you get the sense it would be just delaying the inevitable and they will be back in this situation next season. They are in a definite downward spiral and a good run now doesn't seem like it would change much long term.

Its like there isn't a strategy or a vision at Villa, they have been drifting into irrelevancy for the last ten years and eventually they will be gone, at which point nobody will even notice.

Well actually it's more like five years of decline. While the O'Neill era might have been a slight missed opportunity in some respects, it was a very solid period relatively for Aston Villa - finishing 6th three seasons in a row between 2007 and 2010 and reaching a Cup final in 2010.

I don't fundamentally believe they are too far gone. It comes down to players, it always has and it always will. They have performed very poorly in the transfer market overall post O'Neill (though you could argue the problems started with him in terms of the squad he left). If they went into the transfer market in January and signed some quality players they could turn it around. I look at the current squad and struggle to see the players. That IS fixable.

CSF

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

Back further.

13/14 season....;)

What game was this?

Richard Hillman

Rikand wrote: »

A friend of mine who is a villa fan has been hoping they'd go down for a couple of years now. Team needs a clean out, root to tip,

I would agee with him. A relegation would be the perfect opportunity to revamp the club for a few years. Fighting fires, year in/year out is detrimental to the club in the long run.

If they go down for a couple of years, they can encurage a manager to play decent football and bring in young exciting players that have time to develop. They can formulate a structure like Southampton and Swansea. They have already been employing a transfer policy of bringing in young players and letting them develop. The problem is that it is very hard to do it when you are fighting fires with relegation every season.

I have heard Sunderland fans say something similar.

Corholio

Richard Hillman wrote: »

I would agee with him. A relegation would be the perfect opportunity to revamp the club for a few years. Fighting fires, year in/year out is detrimental to the club in the long run.

If they go down for a couple of years, they can encurage a manager to play decent football and bring in young exciting players that have time to develop. They can formulate a structure like Southampton and Swansea. They have already been employing a transfer policy of bringing in young players and letting them develop. The problem is that it is very hard to do it when you are fighting fires with relegation every season.

I have heard Sunderland fans say something similar.

I disagree. The fires that Villa have been fighting have almost all been self made, they are not some inevitable changes that come about and therefore must be processed out over time. Villa don't have a policy of bringing in young players and letting them develop, it was tried in Lambert's early tenure and was a failure for a few different reasons. What is actually lacking in the team is experienced leadership, not experience. The transfer policy in the summer has turned out disastrous, it was far too much to bring in so many with non-PL experience, and in managerial terms over the past few years the same mistakes have been made. Going down can have very different effects on teams, I don't think just being relegated would allow Villa anything extra than what they should be doing already in the top flight with much, much better decision making from the board.

RayCon

The need approx 1.6 PPG to get to the magic 40 points (that's assuming that means safety) ... so far this season they've averaged 0.375 PPG .... so they have to go from 1 win in 6 to a win every other game - they're fooked.

Francie Barrett

The whole situation at Villa is just bizarre. The owner clearly has no interest in the football club, and has apparently dropped his asking price in a desperate bid to extricate himself from the mess he created. What surprised me last Summer was the inability of Villa to find a buyer, despite the club being available for as little as £125M. I mean, Villa fans can have a go at Lerner, demanding him to leave, but if no one is willing to buy the club, then what can he do? I think Villa fans should be very cautious in thier demands to get Lerner out. The situation is ripe for the kind of parasite or clown to come in and wreck the club.

rob316

They need a striker, they haven't replaced Benteke or Delph. If they don't buy they will certainly go down. They have 6 points currently, there is 66 to play for and 40 is the usual magic number to stay up. Only can afford to drop 26, they would need top 4 form in the 2nd half of the season to survive.

It is highly unlikely but not impossible.

Bounty Hunter

I think the magic number this year will be well below 40.

^
Doesn't mean I think Villa will stay up

eh i dunno

Garde was the wrong man for the job. They should have hired moyes who I think would have got them safe. Losing the spine of the team in vlaar, Delph and benteke destroyed them. They only seem to have 5/6 players of decent quality and one of them is out for the season.

Relegation unfortunately which is sad to see for a big club like villa.

Sad state of affairs for Villa.

Would like to see them turn it around but it's unlikely

blueser

RayCon wrote: »

The need approx 1.6 PPG to get to the magic 40 points (that's assuming that means safety) ... so far this season they've averaged 0.375 PPG .... so they have to go from 1 win in 6 to a win every other game - they're fooked.

I would tend to agree. That's just too much of a turnaround in form to be achievable. I know Leicester did something similar last season, but that was over a far shorter period (a couple of months?). Villa need something approaching top 4 form, which I can't see them doing; it seems there's absolutely no confidence or self belief in the side. I don't mind Villa actually, but they're up to their necks in the smelly stuff.

Harry Palmr

There are three big Black Country clubs for sale right now - WBA, Villa and Wolves.

Talisman

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Well actually it's more like five years of decline. While the O'Neill era might have been a slight missed opportunity in some respects, it was a very solid period relatively for Aston Villa - finishing 6th three seasons in a row between 2007 and 2010 and reaching a Cup final in 2010.

I don't fundamentally believe they are too far gone. It comes down to players, it always has and it always will. They have performed very poorly in the transfer market overall post O'Neill (though you could argue the problems started with him in terms of the squad he left). If they went into the transfer market in January and signed some quality players they could turn it around. I look at the current squad and struggle to see the players. That IS fixable.

The problem is the owner - in 2006, he haggled over the evaluation of the club he was buying and walked away from the deal for the sake of £1.5M. In the end, Doug Ellis dropped the valuation by £1.6M to close the deal. Randy Lerner is either a shrewd business man or penny pinching bar steward. His performance as owner/chairman of the club suggests the latter.

O'Neill had the team on the cusp of breaking into the top 4, Lerner decided that the squad didn't warrant further investment so O'Neill resigned. Since then the team have been treading water, transfer fees recouped have been reinvested but nothing further invested. That is a recipe for disaster in the Premier League, with the lucrative TV deals and sooner or later the lack of proper investment in the squad will catch up with you.

The managerial appointments have been a reflection of the lack of ambition of the owner : Houllier, McLeish, Lambert and Sherwood were all safe options with the aim of doing enough to keep the club in the league.

Sherwood got screwed when Liverpool bought Benteke's contract, as a direct result the club also lost Delph. The money was reinvested but it's impossible to build a team in a single transfer window and bedding in a large number of players at once takes time.

It's not too late for them to save themselves, they are only 4 points off of the position Leicester found themselves in at the same time last season. However the big difference is Aston Villa are not a cohesive unit unlike the Leicester team.