Saturday 5th Dec

bellybuster12

For the day that is in it(Tingle creek), here's a throw back to when Grade 1 horses raced against each other more than once a year:P



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17P9ipuJwSY


Would be fun to see Nina in the winners enclosure in todays event!

Copper_pipe

3 long posts incoming.

Tingle Creek Chase Preview:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

French bred aged 5 to 7 or Irish bred aged 9 or 10
Finished in first 3 last time (posting RPR of 164+)
Ran in past 40 days (or won grade 1 chase at 2015 Cheltenham Festival)
Won a grade 1 chase
Previously won a chase by 10 lengths or more
Previously won at Sandown (or having first course start)
Won 2014 Tingle Creek, 2015 Game Spirit and/or 2015 Celebration Chase
Finished in first 4 in Champion Chase, Maghull, Arkle and/or Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase
Finished in first 3 in Haldon Gold Cup and/or Shloer Chase last time
From the first 3 in the betting (no bigger than 6/1, favourite does well)
Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson
Trends Predict:

1st: Vibrato Valtat

2nd: Sire De Grugy

3rd: Special Tiara

Race Analysis:

This race lacks the depth it did ever since Un De Sceaux and Simonsig were declared non runners. It is still a decent race though. This is a race that Paul Nicholls has owned though. He has won this race 7 times in the past 10 years and 10 times in total since 1999. The horse that he trains in this Vibrato Valtat is the one that all the trends point too. He’s a French Bred 6 year old who has a grade 1 win to his name. He also has a preference for soft ground unlike a lot of these. He was a smart Novice chaser last season. He won three graded races including a Grade 1. He is also a course winner which is a huge plus. He was an unlucky 4th behind today’s rival Special Tiara at this track on his last run last season. He got hampered early on in the race and made up a lot of ground late on but the winner had flown. He made a good return to action recently in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter. That race has always been a great trial for this race. He won it in good style. He’ll come on an awful lot for that race. He has a big chance today.

Special Tiara is a front runner who goes off a million miles an hour. He warrants respect on the form he showed last season when beating some of today’s rivals in the Celebration Chase here in April, following his third in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham. Both of those runs came on real good ground. He has won on soft before but he is at his best on good ground. It might be wise to check the ground at Sandown. If it’s good his chances will increase, if its anyways soft his chances decrease. On form Sire De Grugy is the best horse in the race. He won the Champion Chase 2 seasons back and he’s three from three here over fences. Saying that though he got badly injured before last season and he didn’t look the same horse since. He ran a very bad race first time up behind Vibrato Valtat. He picked up another injury that day and his trainer who is in form has done a good job of getting him back on the track. Saying that though he might not be at his best today. He is another one who would prefer better ground.

Mr Mole is a very temperamental horse but when he puts it all in he is talented. He’s never won or placed in a Grade 1 chase yet so I couldn’t have him. Of the others the old boy Somersby is sure to run his usual gallant race. He’ll most likely be there or there abouts but he’s not one for win purposes. Josses Hill was a decent novice hurdler and chaser. He was runner up to Vautour in the Supreme Novices Hurdle and was 3rd behind Un De Sceaux in the Arkle chase last season. He finished in front of Vibrato Valtat that day. That run gives him a chance today but he has not had a recent run and he has a lot to find on the ratings.

Conclusion:

It looks an open race. There is no one horse who is clearly better than the other in the race. I would of sided with Special Tiara if the ground was good but the recent rain has turned it to good to soft and it may end up soft when the race goes off. He is sure to blast off in front though and try and make all. He’s a good jumper but I don’t think he’ll get up the hill as well as a few of them in the ground. The one I’m going for is Vibrato Valtat, he’s the up and coming horse in the race. He will love the ground whereas most wont and his trainer has a tremendous record in the race. If Sire De Grugy came back to his old form he would put up a good fight but its best to see how he runs before ever backing him again. Somersby will most likely be the one to chase our selection home.

Selection: Vibrato Valtat 2/1

Copper_pipe

Betfred listed chase


Analysis:

Many Clouds won the Betbright chase last season, ran 6th in the Gold Cup and went on and won the Grand National off a very high rating. That was a tremendous performance and a great feat. His first run back this season was very tame. He never looked comfortable and finished well beaten. The National can take a lot out of a horse and most horses who win it are never the same. He will run a better race today but I don’t think he’s one to be betting on.

Don Poli was a very talented novice chaser last season. He won the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham festival. That is another race that is very grueling and some of the horses that won it were never the same. He had one run after that win last season and he ran a terrible race. He like Many Clouds has to prove today that they’re both still capable of winning at the highest level. Don Poli does receive 5lbs from the top rated horses in this though so that will be an advantage. Nevertheless he still has to show that his novice season wasn’t a flash in the pan. He also has the beating of Southfield Theater based on their last run against each other.

The one I like in this race is Menorah. He’s the outsider of the 4 runner field at 12/1 but he is no slouch. He can be a bit in and out nowadays and prone to the odd blunder but if he is on a going day, watch out! He has a big form chance on the best of last season’s efforts, when still very much a Grade 1 class performer. He was a good second in Grade 1 over course and distance 2 seasons back. He acts on soft and by no means a no hoper.

Selection: Menorah 12/1

Copper_pipe

Becher Chase


Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 9 or 10 or 12
Irish bred
Officially rated 130 to 139
Has run in the last 45 days
Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F+ (ideally over 3M+)
Run at least 13 times over fences
Run in 10+ handicap chases (but won no more than 2)
Has had 3 previous season’s chasing
No flat bred
Has run over the National fences (ideally in 2014 Becher or 2015 Grand National)
Tends to race prominently


Trends Predict:

1st: Soll

2nd: Portrait King

3rd: Ardkilly Witness



Race Analysis:



This will be a very entertaining race to watch as it will be run over the Aintree Grand National fences. Today’s distance is 3 miles and 2 furlongs. It’s usually a decent trial for the National itself. The ground was described as soft yesterday, there has been a lot of rain at Aintree and there is more forecast. The ground could end up heavy by the time this race starts. You’re looking for a horse than has no jumping issues, who runs prominently and has experience over these fences before. Age is also a factor. No Five, six or seven year old has won this in the past 10 years. Only 2 8 year old’s have won in the last 10 years. You mainly want to focus your attention to 9 and 10 year olds. This race is also a race that not many fancied horses win. That is mainly because there too young or carry too much weight.


Given all of those trends and with conditions and form factored this is our conclusion. The top weight Unioniste is only 7 so it safe to rule him out based on his age, weight and he is a iffy jumper. Goonyella has a lot of weight to carry in this but he loves heavy ground and stays all day. The trip may be too short for him and he also carries too much weight. Algernon Pazham has good credentials on form but he is very inexperienced over fences, he is also only 6 years old. The more experienced horse win this. Saint Are was placed in this race last season and went on to run 2nd in the grand national itself. He is very high in the weights now, that may stop him from a win purpose but he might place again. The four horses I just mentioned are the first four in the betting. They have place chances but I can’t see them winning. The horses that we do like are Soll, Portrait King, Vics Canvas and Dare to Endeavor.

Soll has always promised to win a race of this nature. He was 7th in the Grand National 3 years, and was 11th in the Grand Sefton over these fences 2 years ago. He looked all over the winner turning for home in the Grand National last season. He burst a blood vessel though and faded out of it. A lot of the stats point to this horse winning. He’s the perfect age, he has course form, he front runs, he’s Irish Bred and he’s had a recent run. He won two handicap chases last February in great style. He’s may be a shade too high in the weights here but I think he still might be better than his rating suggests given how well he was traveling in last seasons national.

Portrait King is a mudlark who stays all day. He won the Eider Chase as a seven year old over 4 mile 1. He ran some decent races last season. He won a race over this distance at Punchestown and ran well in a few national trials. He was running a great race in the Grand National itself last season, he jumped so well until he came a cropper 3 fences from home. He was bang there and he was staying on better than anything. He had a recent run to knock the cobwebs away, he should be fit and ready for this. The softer the ground the better for him, it will bring his stamina to the forefront. He races prominently and gets in off a very nice racing weight, 16/1 is a nice each way price.

Vic Canvas is 12 years old but last years winner was 13 years old. Don’t let his age put you off backing him. He steadily improved over the last 2 seasons and ran some cracking racing in top handicap company last season. He was placed in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, that race is a good trial for this race. He was also 2nd in the Whitbread Gold Cup at Sandown over 3 mile 5f. He loves the ground, stays well, the only doubt with him is his jumping. He has the tendency to hit a few. He won’t get away with that around here. If he jumps well he’ll be there with a chance.

Dare To Endeavor loves heavy ground, maybe more than any horse in this race. He seems to be able to show a good turn of foot in it where as other horses flounder. The ground here cut really cut up. If it does it gives this one a decent chance. There’s not way he should be 50/1. He was 6th in the Kerry National, doing his best work late on. He had no chance last time out as a horse fell in front of him and he got taken out of the race just when he was about to make his move. If they decide to ride this horse near the front I think he can out run his odds. He might sneak a place. Former Grand National jockey Liam Treadwell is on board. He’ll ensure of a safe passage round for the horse.

Conclusion:

It’s such an open race and a lot of luck is needed in running in these races. The horses that will be out in front and away from dangers are the ones to side with. Of the four horses I like in this race I think Soll has the best chance of them. He has run over these fences 3 times before and he’s always finished the course. That and the fact that he’s a decent jumper that front runs should insure a good run. Portrait King also has a great chance though. This big grey horse will be finished best of all coming up that long long home stretch. Vic’s Canvas ticks a lot of boxes but his jumping issues are off putting in a race like this where jumping is very important. If the ground is very badly cut up it will increase the chances of the Irish trained outsider Dare To Endeavor.

Selection: Soll 11/1

Outsiders: Portrait King 16/1 & Dare to Endeavor 50/1

longshotvalue

with you on Dare to Endeavor at 66/1. apparently its getting very soft there ..

sdoc13

On Dare to endevour as well. Stood out to me at the prices last night. Hope i am right and hope storm desmond brings plenty of rain!

superfurry1

Horrible lucky lately Saturday can be a bloodbath so not going mad today either the first at Sandown What a moment looks the value 16-1 already beat premier bond on the flat and was favourite when keen last time out.

Faugheen

I was on the Gipper in that last one at Chepstow there. Fell at the last when travelling well. Brutal.

BumperD

always enjoy reading the write ups copper pipe, keep them coming

DANNY2014

So so close did he get tipped 2nd last fence he would've had it

superfurry1

Great Pick with Dare to Endeavour Copper very unfortunate. Fantastic by Ar Mad there at Sandown The Moores are flying at the moment Gonna Chance Leo Luna in the last for my sins.

Johner

Very nice return from Don Poli, looked like he need that run and still won.

clockmaker 5.45 Wolv. Old boards favourite. What do ye think?

Pocket talk ....
But I think Special Tiara was hard done by there. I think he'd have gotten up easily.

Shane732

TheTorment wrote: »

Pocket talk ....
But I think Special Tiara was hard done by there. I think he'd have gotten up easily.

Likewise

krustydoyle

I'd agree with you there... And I haven't had a bet.. He looked to be getting back up but we'll never know.. English stewards will let him keep it

STB.

Its a much of a muchness and I backed Special Tiara. Fehily simply gave him a terrible ride. Shouldn't have found himself in that position.

HarshOstrich

No luck at Chepstow today
I backed the gipper,Dawson City and murrayana, they all looked like they where going to win and fell in closing stages.

Jon Stark

Result stands anyway.

uxiant

Horrible decision as expected. However unfortunate it was as Jamie Moore couldn't do a thing, Special Tiara has ended up basically sideways and it's easily cost him a couple of lengths. In the end Sire de Grugy wouldn't have won if he jumped straight.

Jon Stark

Sire did brilliantly to put it up to Tiara but just seemed to let it catch up with him 3 out.

Yes, he probably would have lost had the clash not happened at the last but otherwise it was a very bold performance considering where he's been at lately.

Sire deserves credit for that improved performance anyway, but still won't be good enough come March most likely.

bit of a bogey

Don't know why people are blaming fehily. Gave it a peach of a ride and was unfortunate to get the interference. Placings should have been reversed in my opinion. Was going past SDG as they were jumping the last and was going past again after the line. An almighty bump mid air easily took the momentum out and cost him a length. Would have liked to seen the conversation in the stewards

HarshOstrich

Wolverhampton 6.45
Quatrieme ami @ 11/4
I don't know how the fav can be a 4/11 shot ahead of the selection,it has the best form on turf but has never raced on the all weather and is also returning from a near 3 month break where as the selection showed a very impressive turn of foot over course and distance 3 weeks ago to break the course record from the widest stall that day in 9.
I think the fav will have to produce another course record to win as I expect the selection to better it's last time from a more favourable draw and carrying 6 pounds less weight than when it set the record, he must go close

BumperD

The fav has 18lbs on ratings

HarshOstrich

BumperD wrote: »

The fav has 18lbs on ratings

I know he's better rated but all he's won is a maiden and hasn't run on all weather and has also been off for 3 months, where as quatrieme ami is race fit having won in a course record time 3 weeks ago.im sure better rated horses than quatrieme ami have shown up at Wolverhampton and haven't broken the record, so if he puts in the same performance he should really win.
If you look back at the last race replay you will see how well he took to the surface down the straight coming from the back of the field out wide.
I'm not saying he's a banker but I think he's a great chance at beating the long odds on fav.

BumperD

I will give him a go. 11/4 done.

BumperD

Very good shout ostrich

Whosthis

Yorkshireman EW in the 7.15.

HarshOstrich

BumperD wrote: »

Very good shout ostrich

Cheers, always nice when you study a race and the selection comes off

paddy no 11

What was the time difference between the nvice chase and tingle creek?

uxiant

paddy no 11 wrote: »

What was the time difference between the nvice chase and tingle creek?

Henry VIII: 3m 48.60s (slow by 2.60s)

Tingle Creek: 3m 53.90s (slow by 7.90s)