Saturday 28/11

akelly02

Anything bigger than 2/1 about Irving in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle seems to be nothing less than an early Xmas present . Only has the Hound that is Wicklow Brave to beat on Saturday, how he is favourite over Irving i cant understand. Max bet.

longshotvalue

akelly02 wrote: »

Anything bigger than 2/1 about Irving in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle seems to be nothing less than an early Xmas present . Only has the Hound that is Wicklow Brave to beat on Saturday, how he is favourite over Irving i cant understand. Max bet.

I'd have the complete opposite opinion . Should be a good race. A hound isn't a good description of Wicklow .

byronbay2

Is Arctic Fire definitely not running?

kalinisi

aidankkk wrote: »

I'd have the complete opposite opinion . Should be a good race. A hound isn't a good description of Wicklow .

\

Irvings jumping for me would leave a question mark in this grade, ive backed him the last twice i do like the horse, at the prices and if the ground is not heavy id be happy to back hargam e/w always liked how he jumps think identity thief could run well if he goes there too looked an improved horse to me at down royal

akelly02

aidankkk wrote: »

I'd have the complete opposite opinion . Should be a good race. A hound isn't a good description of Wicklow .

it is when he practicely refuses to race 1 week then the next he goes and wins a handicap by half the track at Chelt next time out

akelly02

kalinisi wrote: »

\

Irvings jumping for me would leave a question mark in this grade, ive backed him the last twice i do like the horse, at the prices and if the ground is not heavy id be happy to back hargam e/w always liked how he jumps think identity thief could run well if he goes there too looked an improved horse to me at down royal

Hargam couldnt beat fergusons horse at chelt a few weeks ago i wouldnt even look at him unless ground was quick.

akelly02

byronbay2 wrote: »

Is Arctic Fire definitely not running?

according to mullins hes saved for ireland on sunday

longshotvalue

akelly02 wrote: »

it is when he practicely refuses to race 1 week then the next he goes and wins a handicap by half the track at Chelt next time out

Still one win in 3 of those handicaps at 33/1 isn't to be sniffed at . He looks more consistent lately at the start and I think he looked very good lately time . Artic fire would be a huge treat but he's running in Ireland apparently .,

madmoose

Purple Bay could out run his odds on his 2nd to faugheen last xmas, he is fine with soft and ferguson has aimed this race for him he said. 16/1 ew now might not be so bad if a few of these are to drop out.

akelly02

aidankkk wrote: »

Still one win in 3 of those handicaps at 33/1 isn't to be sniffed at . He looks more consistent lately at the start and I think he looked very good lately time . Artic fire would be a huge treat but he's running in Ireland apparently .,

Wicklow had a huge run behind faugheen and nichols canyon but i think that race will be prove to be a nothing race in time. i think wicklow was flattered. Irving proven in G1 company will do for me on his preffered soft surface..throwing in whisper at newbury and Kitchsko KO Vs Fury for a nice dream Saturday!!

Johner

Wicklow Brave is a ridiculous price to be fair. Irving should be fav.

akelly02

Johner wrote: »

Wicklow Brave is a ridiculous price to be fair. Irving should be fav.

I think Irving is more if a 6-4 shot so ill br piling in at 2s or bigger

pugw

I think Wicklow Brave is way over-priced.
I backed Irving the last day, I wouldn't regard him as the dependable type though. At those prices I reckon it may be worth going on Top Notch e/w and hoping he can reverse form with Irving.
Thought he travelled well throughout, he caught the last two hurdles to be beaten 1 & 1/4 lengths.
14s v/s 11/4 :cool:

Bangor Billy

If Top Notch turns up I would fancy him to beat Irving. Carried plenty of condition on Saturday and I said immediately after the race that if Top Notch had been fit the result would have been reversed.

uxiant

The Fighting Fifth looks a horrible Grade 1. I wouldn't go near Wicklow Brave as I think fitness more than anything got him so close to Faugheen and Nichols Canyon. The form of the juveniles last year isn't turning out the strongest either. All the talk last month was Purple Bay making his reappearance here so maybe he badly needed the run the last day and can turn things around?

BumperD

F 5th has chucked up a few shocks over the years.

madmoose

uxiant wrote: »

The Fighting Fifth looks a horrible Grade 1. I wouldn't go near Wicklow Brave as I think fitness more than anything got him so close to Faugheen and Nichols Canyon. The form of the juveniles last year isn't turning out the strongest either. All the talk last month was Purple Bay making his reappearance here so maybe he badly needed the run the last day and can turn things around?

As i mentioned above he is a big price, needed the run badly lto seeing as his last was last xmas behind faugheen, plus this is back to 2miles which is his trip.

Bangor Billy

Well he certainly ran badly lto! That run at Aintree was awful and he would have to come on a hell of a lot for it to figure here.

akelly02

Top Notch is 10/1 in a place that seems very big

byronbay2

akelly02 wrote: »

Anything bigger than 2/1 about Irving in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle seems to be nothing less than an early Xmas present . Only has the Hound that is Wicklow Brave to beat on Saturday, how he is favourite over Irving i cant understand. Max bet.

Irving 7/2 in Boyles now.

akelly02

byronbay2 wrote: »

Irving 7/2 in Boyles now.

Ami gone mad or is that huge?

Jon Stark

I've been following Irving for a long time and tbh, I think this race is coming too soon after last Saturday.

That was a hard race for him to say the least. Top Notch might come on for his effort and a Mullins horse leading the betting always has to be respected.

I'll still be supporting Irving but it won't be a pile job.

skippymac6

uxiant wrote: »

The Fighting Fifth looks a horrible Grade 1. I wouldn't go near Wicklow Brave as I think fitness more than anything got him so close to Faugheen and Nichols Canyon. The form of the juveniles last year isn't turning out the strongest either. All the talk last month was Purple Bay making his reappearance here so maybe he badly needed the run the last day and can turn things around?

Absolutely agree. Wicklow Brave has been running on the flat since Cheltenham and was well fit for last weeks contest. Think it could be another Captain Cee Bee finishing third to The Fly and Our Conor sort of thing. I think Irving is less than trustworthy but I'd certainly have him favourite over Wicklow Brave.

Johner

skippymac6 wrote: »

Absolutely agree. Wicklow Brave has been running on the flat since Cheltenham and was well fit for last weeks contest. Think it could be another Captain Cee Bee finishing third to The Fly and Our Conor sort of thing. I think Irving is less than trustworthy but I'd certainly have him favourite over Wicklow Brave.

I remember Marito and Mikael D'haguenet getting very close to Hurricane Fly on his reappearance a couple of years ago. I would be in agreement that Wicklow Brave's run flattered him. What price would he be without that run? He's been very hit and miss since his novice season and although this is a poor Grade 1 at least Irving has won a Grade 1.

akelly02

Johner wrote: »

I remember Marito and Mikael D'haguenet getting very close to Hurricane Fly on his reappearance a couple of years ago. I would be in agreement that Wicklow Brave's run flattered him. What price would he be without that run? He's been very hit and miss since his novice season and although this is a poor Grade 1 at least Irving has won a Grade 1.

Exactly another 100 yards and Maarito would have bet the Fly with Katie aboard. Top Notch is my danger with Irving taking a while to get on top and Top Notch will no doubt improve. Irving won this last year beating arctic Fire in the process.

Gary Gurny

akelly02 wrote: »

Exactly another 100 yards and Maarito would have bet the Fly with Katie aboard. Top Notch is my danger with Irving taking a while to get on top and Top Notch will no doubt improve. Irving won this last year beating arctic Fire in the process.

Anyone giving beltor a shout? Has a stone to find on the top two in the betting but showed immense promise last year.

BurtMacklin

PP sent me one a text enhancing Saphir Du Rheu from 7/2 to 11/2 in the Hennessy.

What do ye think of SDR on Saturday?

the groutch

no way he should be favorite.
he's not even close to a 172 rating on any form I've seen of his, and when he has his jumping properly tested I wouldn't be surpised if we see some mistakes like last season.

if I was to back anything in the race it'd be Houblon Des Obeaux e/w.
loves the cut in the ground, 2nd last year, finished ahead of some decent horses when 2nd to Conygree in the Denman back in February.
if they go any kind of decent pace he'll be staying on through a lot of knackered horses.

BumperD

BurtMacklin wrote: »

PP sent me one a text enhancing Saphir Du Rheu from 7/2 to 11/2 in the Hennessy.

What do ye think of SDR on Saturday?

Top weight? Not sure he's a denman

Nulty

Houblon des Obeaux is a good shout. Pound lower than 4l of Grand National winner Many Clouds giving him 6lbs in this last year. Definitely worth a look.

Theatre Guide is another whose run well in this and is better off in the weights.

Those are my two.

mountai

Tipped this last time out in Newcastle and duly obliged at18/1. Not much to go on since but at 25/1 I will be having an EW cut on Milborough. BOL.

Copper_pipe

Long post incoming

Lot of racing today. Here's my best bets for today.


Saturdays Best Bets:
Tea In Transvaal 6/4 - 12:15 Newbury ★★★★
She has been in great form lately. She’s won 4 of her last 5 starts. She has gone up 23lbs in the ratings. Run’s in a mares novice hurdle here and can run off level weights. She’s 12 lbs well in with the 2nd favourite and she’s 24 lbs better off with Hopes Wishes. The others don’t have a handicap mark over hurdles yet but none of them would come close to this horse's rating. She ran in a much stronger race than this at cheltenham last time out. That race was against geldings so she’ll be much better taking on her same sex here. Not won over hurdles on soft ground but did win a maiden on the flat in heavy ground. So there's no ground worries. On ratings I can’t see her getting beat. As we know it doesn’t always go to plan. If she comes 2nd and you bet with Paddy Power you get your money back as free bet (Singles Only). We think she will win though.
Ballydine 2/1 - 1:00 Newcastle ★★★★
Came 2nd to the talented Fingerontheswitch first time up. Then he demolished a field in a maiden hurdle by 10 lengths. That was over today's trip of 2m 6f on soft ground at Stratford on his second attempt over hurdles. He traveled well and was an incredibly impressive, winning with plenty in hand. The forecast ground conditions in his favour and he will likely take plenty of stopping. Wholestone was no match for the selection that day and will not reverse placings today. The form of that run gives him leading claims in this race as he beat some good horses. There should be plenty more to come from him. Certainly bred to do better too, he’s closely related to his stablemate and the dual Grade 2 scorer Kilcooley. We think Ballydine will be too good for them today.
Top Notch 9/2 - 2:05 Newcastle ★★★
Ex French horse who went from strength last season. He won 4 novice hurdles in a row and only came up a half a length short to his stable mate Peace and Co in the Triumph hurdle at the Cheltenham festival. Top Notch started this season of in a hot race at Haydock. He tried to make all but race fitness proved a factor as he was just found wanting to a fitter horse in Irving. Top Notch jumped and traveled so well that day and he was running Irving all the way to the line. Top Notch is tough and genuine and he loves soft ground. Irving already had a run when he beat Top Notch last time out, I think the placings will be reversed today. I think Top Notch will finish in front of Irving. He does have stern competition from a few others though.
The Irish Challenger Wicklow Brave will be tough to beat and so will Beltor. Wicklow Brave has done really well on the flat this season, he was placed in a group 2 race. That suggested to me he would also improve over hurdles. He started out the national hunt season by running a good 3rd behind stablemates Faugheen and Nicholas Canyon. He did well to get as close to them as he did as they were both in need of a run. His previous hurdle form is okay, other than winning the martin pipe hurdle at the cheltenham festival there isn’t much else of value. I think Top Notch has more scope than Wicklow Brave over hurdles. The biggest challenger to Top Notch may well be Beltor who like Top Notch, is also a 2nd season hurdler. Beltor hacked up in 2 races last season and ran an alright race at Cheltenham. He finished a fair bit behind Top Notch in that race but he pulled very hard and didn’t get up the hill. This is a cracking race, I’m hoping Top Notch will be too good and too game for them but he’s no cert.
Ibis Du Rheu 7/2 - 1:50 Newbury ★★
This horse won over hurdles in France as a 3 year old and also came 2nd to the talented Top Notch who has since won 4 races and finished runner up in a Grade 2. Ibis Du Rheu had 2 runs for his new yard last season. The first one is best to ignore, he was not fit and he pulled way too hard. The second of those runs for this stable last winter was a fair effort though that was full of promise. He came fourth in a handicap hurdle after pulling very hard all throughout the race. His trainer thinks he has sorted that problem. He should be more settled today in a first-time hood and tongue tie. Ma Filleule brings the best form into the race but she doesn’t win that often. Ibis Du Rheu is the dark horse in the race, he’s the one that we haven’t seen the best of yet. It’s quite possible that this half brother to the stable's high class Hennessy contender Saphir Du Rheu can improve now he's had more time to acclimatize. If he goes to 4/1 he’s a cracking each way price. As is, I think he has a great chance.
Smad Place 8/1 3:00 Newbury ★★
Smad Place is the class horse in this race. Like Saphir Du Rheu he was very talented over hurdles and was placed in the World Hurdle. Smad Place was 5th in this race last year off the same mark. He looked like the winner turning for home and he just faded out of contention before 2 out. There were some decent horses finish in front of him though, the horse that won the race went on to win the Grand National. He was in need of a run that day I feel. He’s already had a run this season and he won in great style winning from today's rival Fingal Bay. He should confirm those placings today and I’m hopeful of a big run from this horse today and I think he could be a Cheltenham Gold Cup Contender this season
Briery Queen 5/1 - 3:05 Doncaster ★★
Half-sister to fairly useful staying hurdler/chaser Briery Fox. Briery Queen has yet to win a race in 5 starts but she has showed useful form in defeat in bumpers last term. Hurdling and chasing were always going to be her game though. Very much one to note now hurdling. She has been crying out for a step up in trip and she gets it today. All of her runs were over 2 miles and she steps up a half a mile in distance today. That will bring out a lot of improvement in her. She finished off all her races to great effect last season over a trip too short. I really don’t get why she is not a smaller price than this seeing that she has already finished 6 lengths in front of the 4/5 favourite in this race. She was in receipt of 3lbs that day, she is in receipt of a further 3lbs today and the jockey is also claiming another 3lbs off. She's 6lbs better off with the horse she beat by 6 lengths. That race that she was 2nd in and that Robins Reef was 4th in was a top top race. Copper Kay who split the pair that day has won 2 races this season already. Robins Reef does come from a powerful stable and has won over hurdles already but I think she's a terribly price. Back Briery Queen each way, I think she’ll be place but I also think she has a great chance of beating the 4/5 favourite Robins Reef.
Abracadabra Sivola 7/1 1:15 Newbury ★
Best efforts on soft to heavy ground. He was never at his best last season, ran on ground he didn’t like most of the time. He was runner up on return to fences this term over 3m at Chepstow and Exeter. He was beaten about 16l in both but the form of those runs were very good, he was going up against some top novice chases. His last run was 2nd to the very talented Native River who has since run 2nd in a Grade 2. That form may read well compared to this mark for handicap chase debut. Also the drop in trip is sure to suit him today. His trainer does very well with this sort of horse. This should be a drop in grade for him and he gets in off a very nice weight. Mosspark and the ex irish trained Si C’Etait Vrai also have chances in what is a very open race. I think Abracadabra Sivola might have too much up his sleeve for them.

Copper_pipe

Last long post now I swear




The Hennessy Gold Cup is the big race of the day. This is a big race to follow stats and trends in. 6 year olds, 7 year olds and 8 year olds do really well in this race. Mainly 7 year olds. Also it's best to follow the classier type of horse at the top of the weights. Look for a horse that’s carrying 10 stone 12 lbs or more and an unexposed horse who hasn’t run in very many handicap chases. That usually narrows down to a list to a select few horses. From using the trends and taking form, distance, going and current form into mind we’re left with a list of 4 horses, Saphir Du Rheu, Smad Place, If In Doubt and The Young Master.

Saphir Du Rheu has a very tough challenge to take on. The mighty Denman is the only horse that I can think of that has won this race off top weight in recent years. Paul Nicholls who trained Denman also trains this horse. He tried novice chases with his horse a few seasons with this horse a few seasons back but he didn’t take to the fences straight away. He sent him back over hurdles last season and he did really well, he won the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle and was 2nd in the G1 World Hurdle. That is very good form indeed. His trainer then decided to try fences with this horse again and he won a G1 novice chase at the Aintree festival. First time up this season he beat today’s rival The Young Master by 7 lengths. The runner up is 12lbs better off with him today though and he will come on from that run too. Saphir Du Rheu would also prefer better ground than this. I think the weight may catch him out in this soft ground but I think he will run a good race. The Young Master should finish in front of him today. He went up 51 lbs for winning 5 races last season. He went from strength to strength. He stays all day, he loves the ground and he has a great chance off a nice weight.

Smad Place is the class horse in this race. Like Saphir Du Rheu he was very talented over hurdles and was placed in the World Hurdle. Smad Place was 5th in this race last year off the same mark. He looked like the winner turning for home and he just faded out of contention before 2 out. There were some decent horses finish in front of him though, the horse that won the race went on to win the Grand National. He was in need of a run that day I feel. He’s already had a run this season and he won in great style winning from today's rival Fingal Bay. He should confirm those placings today and I’m hopeful of a big run from this horse today and I think he could be a Cheltenham Gold Cup Contender this season. If In Doubt is the only horse in this race that ticks all the boxes trendwise. He’s a seven year old, 6 of the last 10 winners of this race were also that age. On form he has to show improvement today to win but he does have the scope to do that. He is also very nicely weighted. The only doubt with this horse is his jumping. If he jumps well enough I think he’ll go very close.

Prediction:
1st: Smad Place
2nd: If In Doubt
3rd: The Young Master

Rock Lesnar

I think im gonna go with:

Aloomomo 7-1, Newbury 1.15

After Rain 7-1, Fairyhouse 2.15

Identity Thief 8-1, Newcastle 2.05

Fingal Bay 14-1, in the Hennessy

ipitydafool

Cant have Saphir Du Rheu myself either for Hennessy, cant have the comparsions being made with Denman yet. He has already been on the deck twice and while his certainly looked class in Aintree, lto was in a small field and quite a slow pace, would be concerned his jumping might be found out down the back straight.

Also was quite shocked Segal pricewised him.

Thought FL was interesting at prices, got a good run in Clonmel last time and has the cheek-pieces back on. He's 25's with a few firms. Also gonna have a bet on Ned Stark, a bit like If in Doubt in profile, second season chaser, won at this meeting last year, has a light weight and open to improvement.

Wicklow Brave

Two bets.

11:40 Fairyhouse - Bonny Kate 5/1. Really like this mare. 2nd behind Killer Miller lto and KM did remarkably well to finish a close 3rd behind Shantou Flyer in the G2 Florida Pearl, a race KM made a an awful mistake 3 out, lost a huge amount of ground and would have won imo. Alvisio Ville is the odds on fav and this horse to me looked really weak last year over hurdles, always gonna be a chaser but I'm more than happy to take him on, especially over this 2m5f trip.

1:00 Newcastle - Ballydine 2/1. Not gonna repeat what Copper_pipe has said but I don't think this fella is getting beat and 2/1 is too big imo.

Skintwin

Wicklow Brave wrote: »

Two bets.

11:40 Fairyhouse - Bonny Kate 5/1. Really like this mare. 2nd behind Killer Miller lto and KM did remarkably well to finish a close 3rd behind Shantou Flyer in the G2 Florida Pearl, a race KM made a an awful mistake 3 out, lost a huge amount of ground and would have won imo. Alvisio Ville is the odds on fav and this horse to me looked really weak last year over hurdles, always gonna be a chaser but I'm more than happy to take him on, especially over this 2m5f trip.

1:00 Newcastle - Ballydine 2/1. Not gonna repeat what Copper_pipe has said but I don't think this fella is getting beat and 2/1 is too big imo.

Cheers on Bonny Kate! Managed to get 11/2 as well, so all the sweeter!

Francie Barrett

Ballydine+Pylonthepressure double - 9/2.

Whosthis

Purple Bay had a shocker three weeks ago but it was first run in almost a year and over too long a trip. 25/1 is far too big to ignore.

Wicklow Brave

Happy with Bonny Kate but poor Alvisio Ville lost his life. Very sad news.

We go again.

1:10 Fairyhouse - Tombstone 11/8. Got to take advantage of the Mullins/Ricci yoke priced too short. Tombstone has the better bumper form and is the better horse imo. Big fan of this horse actually.

2:35 Newbury - Thistlecrack 4/1. Staying hurdle division is weak. Cole Harden has had another wind op over the summer and won a poor World Hurdle. Whisper is an average horse and will need the run. Happy to take this second season novice from a stable in red hot form.

Gary Gurny

ballydine wins . Nearly bringing every hurdle with him :-)

BurtMacklin

Gary Gurny wrote: »

ballydine wins . Nearly bringing every hurdle with him :-)

Ballydine went as high as 8's in running at one stage.

uxiant

Not really sure why people think Saphir du Rheu needs to be Denman to win? The race doesn't look very strong to me as I don't see too many well handicapped horses and he is a genuine Gold Cup horse IMO. The Mulholland horses are interesting but they have bigger targets ahead and he'll bring them on slowly. Can't believe Bob's Worth is so short though. He's been on the slide for years and Simonsig gave him over 10L at the start the last day and who knows how to interpret that form as the Ferguson horses didn't run their race.

Ma Fillieue being dropped 10lbs looks a massive overreaction to me. Henderson seems confident and stepping up a few furlongs in trip with fitness onside I expect her to be tough to beat in a poor enough race.

I was surprised at the prices of these two this morning. Saphir du Rheu and Ma Fillieue my best bets of the day.

Rock Lesnar

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

I think im gonna go with:

Aloomomo 7-1, Newbury 1.15

Nice start to the day, won well

Shemale

Identity Thief in this for me.

ipitydafool

Any beltor fans have to be worried about the walk its taken in the market, out to 20-1. Top notch for me in this

HarshOstrich

Irving never should have ran

Rock Lesnar

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

I think im gonna go with:

Aloomomo 7-1, Newbury 1.15

After Rain 7-1, Fairyhouse 2.15

Identity Thief 8-1, Newcastle 2.05

Fingal Bay 14-1, in the Hennessy

2 down and 2 to go

uxiant

Irving just runs down his hurdles.

Great placing from De Bromhead to reroute him to the Fighting Fifth.

kksaints

Have gone for Fingal Bay in the Hennessy each-way. Think the run last time should have freshened him up for this and he is a top class horse at his best.

ipitydafool

uxiant wrote: »

Irving just runs down his hurdles.

Great placing from De Bromhead to reroute him to the Fighting Fifth.

Yeah great pot for them to pick up, though he smacked quiet a few hurdles he really stayed on well. That twice now top notch has jumped perfectly in front and got out stayed at finish.