Snowmageddon this winter?

Polo_Mint

Seems alot of people in the know are saying we are getting a whiteout this winter.


Are we all prepared?

eeguy

These the same people who say we're going to get a scorcher every Summer?

I won't be holding my breath.

mad muffin

We will have a 2010 winter this year. I garontee.

play it again

They can't tell us scientifically what kind of weather well have in 3 weeks time , I wouldn't put much faith in the likes of a postman in donegal that can talk to birds

Menas

Is this based on the direction the snot fell out of that donegal postmans dogs nose?!

Impossible to predict the weather with any accuracy this far out.

But if we ever did have a major prolonged winter 'event' then I doubt we would cope very well with it.

The Backwards Man

Anybody 'in the know' about the weather would be a millionaire many times over.

kneemos

You can put your shirt on it.

murpho999

Is this because a Donegal postman saw the squirrels collecting more nuts than normal or the leaves have changed colour.

All long range forecasts are hocus pocus and it helps to sell newspapers.

It's impossible to predict now what the winter will be like and why people believe otherwise is beyond me.

Baggy Trousers

Polo_Mint wrote: »

Seems alot of people in the know are saying we are getting a whiteout this winter.


Are we all prepared?

You can bet your minty hole on it (except you will need to be above 600m to see it!)

Notavirus.exe

We were supposed to have snow in October in 2011 (the year after the really bad snow).

It snowed once in January in 2012 and that was it. I don't listen to what these weather people say anymore.

BMJD

We are facing the coldest winter in 50 years. And by coldest I mean mildest.

kneemos

Saw Geese heading south yesterday evening. They obviously know something.

The King of Moo

My surefire prediction for this winter:

It'll be fairly cold, but not too much so, except for a couple of weeks when it'll be colder and there'll be snow on the mountains, and maybe some in general in the north and east.

Cee-Jay-Cee

play it again wrote: »

They can't tell us scientifically what kind of weather well have in 3 weeks time , I wouldn't put much faith in the likes of a postman in donegal that can talk to birds

He has actually retired and is no longer a postman. His replacement Indulges a spot of fishing now and then and is a keen GAA supporter but ****e at weather prediction much like the man he replaced.

seamus

2010 was one of those events that only happens a couple of times in someone's life. Rivers froze ffs. Actual, proper rivers, not the piddly little streams that run through most people's towns.

The east of the country saw daytime temperatures staying below zero and overnight temps below -10 degrees. One night that cold is exceptional in an Irish winter, never mind a string of them in succession.

Anyone who thinks that another event like that will happen this side of 2030 is fooling themselves. More's the pity, I'd love if every winter was like that. I thought it was great.

Interesting though that apparently the previous winter was colder overall. Loads of events here: http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/major-events.asp
The only pattern I can pick out from that is a tendency for heavy rainfall and flooding in November. The snow event in 2010 was probably a freak combination of that heavy late-autumn precipitation meeting arctic winds from the east.

RobertKK

Have the Daily Express put out it's annual winter forecast, usually around this time they say it will be -20C within weeks with blizzards and chaos.
Well that is what their in the know people said the last few Octobers.

gramar

play it again wrote: »

They can't tell us scientifically what kind of weather well have in 3 weeks time , I wouldn't put much faith in the likes of a postman in donegal that can talk to birds

Menas wrote: »

Is this based on the direction the snot fell out of that donegal postmans dogs nose?!

Impossible to predict the weather with any accuracy this far out.

But if we ever did have a major prolonged winter 'event' then I doubt we would cope very well with it.

murpho999 wrote: »

Is this because a Donegal postman saw the squirrels collecting more nuts than normal or the leaves have changed colour.

All long range forecasts are hocus pocus and it helps to sell newspapers.

It's impossible to predict now what the winter will be like and why people believe otherwise is beyond me.

Donegal postmen taking a bit of a bashing.

XplaygirlX

kneemos wrote:

Saw Geese heading south yesterday evening. They obviously know something.

What does that mean? Hopefully not another horrible mild winter again

wilhelm roentgen

Where's Michael Fish when you need him

brooke 2

Polo_Mint wrote: »

Seems alot of people in the know are saying we are getting a whiteout this winter.


Are we all prepared?

Don't let Eileen Cusack hear you!!

biko

In October 2005 the travellers on a halting Site asked their new Clan Leader if the coming winter was going to be cold or mild?

Since he was a "Leader" in a modern society he had never been taught the ancient and mystical ways of the travellers from times well past.
When he looked at the sky he couldn't tell what the winter was going to be like. Nevertheless, to be on the safe side he told his clan that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the site should collect firewood to be prepared.

But being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He went to the phone box, called the Irish Met Office and asked,
"Is da comin' wintur goin' to be cold?"

"It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold," the meteorologist at the weather service responded.

So the Leader went back to his people and told them to collect even more firewood in order to be prepared. A week later he called the Met Office
again.

"Does it still look like it's goin' to be a very cold wintur?"

"Yes," the man at Met Office again replied, "it's going to be a very cold winter."

The Leader again went back to his clan and ordered them to collect every scrap of firewood they could find. Two weeks later the Leader called the
Met Office again.

"Are ya absolutely sure that the wintur is goin' to be very cold?"

"Absolutely," the man replied. "It's looking more and more like it is going to be one of the coldest winters ever."

"How can ya tell?" the Leader asked.

The weatherman replied, "Coz the knackers are collecting firewood like crazy!!"

jmayo

Menas wrote: »

Is this based on the direction the snot fell out of that donegal postmans dogs nose?!

Impossible to predict the weather with any accuracy this far out.

But if we ever did have a major prolonged winter 'event' then I doubt we would cope very well with it.

I suppose it is all now down to yer man from Donegal as the lad in NZ is probably too busy watching the All Blacks to care.

Notavirus.exe wrote: »

We were supposed to have snow in October in 2011 (the year after the really bad snow).

It snowed once in January in 2012 and that was it. I don't listen to what these weather people say anymore.

Didn't the sale of snow shoe grips, snow tyres, etc go through the roof the year of the last bad snow in preparation for the next winter only for it to turn out to be mildest winter in years.

jmayo

biko wrote: »

In October 2005 the travellers on a halting Site asked their new Clan Leader if the coming winter was going to be cold or mild?

Since he was a "Leader" in a modern society he had never been taught the ancient and mystical ways of the travellers from times well past.
When he looked at the sky he couldn't tell what the winter was going to be like. Nevertheless, to be on the safe side he told his clan that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the site should collect firewood to be prepared.

But being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He went to the phone box, called the Irish Met Office and asked,
"Is da comin' wintur goin' to be cold?"

"It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold," the meteorologist at the weather service responded.

So the Leader went back to his people and told them to collect even more firewood in order to be prepared. A week later he called the Met Office
again.

"Does it still look like it's goin' to be a very cold wintur?"

"Yes," the man at Met Office again replied, "it's going to be a very cold winter."

The Leader again went back to his clan and ordered them to collect every scrap of firewood they could find. Two weeks later the Leader called the
Met Office again.

"Are ya absolutely sure that the wintur is goin' to be very cold?"

"Absolutely," the man replied. "It's looking more and more like it is going to be one of the coldest winters ever."

"How can ya tell?" the Leader asked.

The weatherman replied, "Coz the knackers are collecting firewood like crazy!!"

Is that why they also collect copper hot water cyclinders ?

Son Of A Vidic

seamus wrote: »

2010 was one of those events that only happens a couple of times in someone's life. Rivers froze ffs. Actual, proper rivers, not the piddly little streams that run through most people's towns. The east of the country saw daytime temperatures staying below zero and overnight temps below -10 degrees.

Here in Yeats Country, I recorded a temp of -20.5 Celsius on the 12th December 2010 @ 22:00hrs. I remember going shopping on Christmas eve, left the house @13:00 hrs and the temp was -13 Celsius. I had 4 inches of solid ice on my road for over three weeks and even my gravel drive was coated in thick ice. But according to RTE that never happened and the weather wasn't really a bad as over on the east coast :rolleyes:. Hopefully that winter was a once in a life time experience.

ablelocks

el nino + north atlantic blob / gulf stream x jet stream = cold winter
north atlantic blob + el nino / jet stream x gulf stream = mild winter

Duggy747

I just had a talk with Michael Jackson on the Ouija board, he says there'll be grand drying out for at least a good few weeks leading into November but recommended me to top up on oil as the boiler was looking a little low.

seamus

Corvus Maximus wrote: »

But according to RTE that never happened and the weather wasn't really a bad as over on the east coast

Ah well you see the west coast always has crappy weather and only about 1,000 people live west of Portlaoise anyway, so of course when something interesting happens in the east the news will take notice

jamesbere

Duggy747 wrote: »

I just had a talk with Michael Jackson on the Ouija board, he says there'll be grand drying out for at least a good few weeks leading into November but recommended me to top up on oil as the boiler was looking a little low.

He's great with the old predictions.

Liamario

Polo_Mint wrote: »

Seems alot of people in the know are saying we are getting a whiteout this winter.


Are we all prepared?

I can assure you that anyone saying we're getting a whiteout this winter aren't 'in the know'.

Wizard!

Astrologers & psychics are more accurate than meteorologists...

Liamario

Wizard! wrote: »

Astrologers & psychics are more accurate than meteorologists...

If you're going to troll dude, you need to be a lot more subtle.

gramar

Wizard! wrote: »

Astrologers & psychics are more accurate than meteorologists...

Not to mention Wizards.

circadian

I can tell you now, it'll be colder than summer.

seamus

Wizard! wrote: »

Astrologers & psychics are more accurate than meteorologists...

Actually you could be right to a certain extent.

Studies have shown that our personal biases towards intuition and pattern matching can have a deliterious effect on our choices when we lack the skills to make them.

Studies where people are posed with questions where the outcome is truly random, on average do worse than just selecting answers at random. Their intuition leads them towards making a selection, rather than honestly picking one at random.

Related is the Kruger-Dunning effect where people with little knowledge about a topic vastly overestimate their ability and perform far worse than they believe they should.

As such, psychics and astrologers, who are literally just throwing darts at a dartboard when it comes to making weather predictions, likely make better predictions than amateur quacks like the postman who are actually trying to make a prediction based on evidence but lack the knowledge to do it.

Samaris

At the moment, it looks like a typical El Nino, probably quite strong. But, although that -does- have an impact on global teleconnections, it affects Europe the least, and of Europe, it affects the Ireland much less than the continent or even mainland Britain.

Given the pattern of the last few years, it's really difficult to say what's coming. Most people have noticed an increase in strong events, but we still can't predict when and where those extreme events are going to occur. We might get a bitter winter, we might not - Ireland in particular is moderated by the Gulf Stream, so that tends to keep things a bit warmer than they might otherwise be.

Sea ice has already reached it's likely maximum in the Arctic, and it's not as great as in previous years, so we might not get a High pressure area extending as far south as in the last couple of years, affecting the polar jet stream.

Meh. My own guess would be relatively mild winter, probably a dose in January. The seasons all seem to be shifting along a bit. But weather prediction is a very imprecise art, and if the Met office really do think it'll be cold - newspapers aside - then they're probably right /shrug

Edit: As you can tell from all my modifiers and uncertainty, I really don't know

To Elland Back

Duggy747 wrote: »

I just had a talk with Michael Jackson on the Ouija board, he says there'll be grand drying out for at least a good few weeks leading into November but recommended me to top up on oil as the boiler was looking a little low.

He's Off The Wall with that

Son Of A Vidic

seamus wrote: »

Ah well you see the west coast always has crappy weather and only about 1,000 people live west of Portlaoise anyway, so of course when something interesting happens in the east the news will take notice

That's true.:(

Elmer Blooker

jmayo wrote: »

Didn't the sale of snow shoe grips, snow tyres, etc go through the roof the year of the last bad snow in preparation for the next winter only for it to turn out to be mildest winter in years.

Yeah, I bought a big snow shovel at the beginning of 2011, five years have passed its never been used!

Now that traffic gridlock here in Dublin is back at celtic tiger levels I can only imagine what the disruption will be like if we get a few cms.
In 2010 we were in the recession and traffic was light in the city so disruption wasn't too bad, if we get a prolonged snowy spell this winter it will cost the economy billions!! The capital will cease to function!

XplaygirlX

Well I'm still going out in my cosy winter coat anyway. my favourite green one with the fluffy hood :pac:

jamesbere

Samaris wrote: »

At the moment, it looks like a typical El Nino, probably quite strong. But, although that -does- have an impact on global teleconnections, it affects Europe the least, and of Europe, it affects the Ireland much less than the continent or even mainland Britain.

Given the pattern of the last few years, it's really difficult to say what's coming. Most people have noticed an increase in strong events, but we still can't predict when and where those extreme events are going to occur. We might get a bitter winter, we might not - Ireland in particular is moderated by the Gulf Stream, so that tends to keep things a bit warmer than they might otherwise be.

Sea ice has already reached it's likely maximum in the Arctic, and it's not as great as in previous years, so we might not get a High pressure area extending as far south as in the last couple of years, affecting the polar jet stream.

Meh. My own guess would be relatively mild winter, probably a dose in January. The seasons all seem to be shifting along a bit. But weather prediction is a very imprecise art, and if the Met office really do think it'll be cold - newspapers aside - then they're probably right /shrug

Edit: As you can tell from all my modifiers and uncertainty, I really don't know

So what your saying is, we should all panic and go looting

BoatMad

when in danger or in doubt ,
run in circles, scream and shout

jamesbere

BoatMad wrote: »

when in danger or in doubt ,
run in circles, scream and shout

You do the hokey pokey
And you turn around cos that's what it's all about

average_runner

circadian wrote: »

I can tell you now, it'll be colder than summer.

Not so sure on that, it was a cold summer!!

Samaris

jamesbere wrote: »

So what your saying is, we should all panic and go looting

Ah sure, why not.

asherbassad

The only thing you can be certain of is that it'll piss rain from November to March in the West.

nullzero

To Elland Back wrote: »

He's Off The Wall with that

Bad

jamesbere

Samaris wrote: »

Ah sure, why not.

Good, because I've already started

Ghost Buster

Polo_Mint wrote: »

Seems alot of people in the know are saying we are getting a whiteout this winter.


Are we all prepared?

Who are the people 'in the know'.
If theyre not meteorolygists (how dat spelt??!) then they are not in the know.
I was at a lecture given by Evelyn Cusack. She said that for any degree of accuracy in forecasting you can only go to three or four days. Beyond ten is nothing more than guessing.

Nodin

Ghost Buster wrote: »

Who are the people 'in the know'.
If theyre not meteorolygists (how dat spelt??!) then they are not in the know.
I was at a lecture given by Evelyn Cusack. She said that for any degree of accuracy in forecasting you can only go to three or four days. Beyond ten is nothing more than guessing.

Are you casting doubt on well tested proven methods of forecasting such as the way the dog licks its arse and whether or not ones left testicle is scratchier than ones right?

Ghost Buster

Nodin wrote: »

Are you casting doubt on well tested proven methods of forecasting such as the way the dog licks its arse and whether or not ones left testicle is scratchier than ones right?

Well, obviously not the 'left testicle' one. Thats a given.

Vandango

asherbassad wrote: »

The only thing you can be certain of is that it'll piss rain from November to March in the West.

So it doesn't in rain in the rest of Ireland? Because that would be a first.