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Novelty/Special Bet: The Booker Prize (Fiction) 2015

  • 13-10-2015 2:50pm
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Dawson Deep Frown

    Now I'd only ever use books to prop up the base section of the Marshall stack up towards a more ear penetrating 15 degree angled tilt for the Gibson's humbuckers to sing though.

    This booky wooky prize of sorts is apparently what all the hipsters in tweed jackets in coffee shops are all spilling their Americanos over. Sure it's not even real stuff that happened, only fictional made-up stories stamped onto the remains of pulped up trees.

    Anyhow the exchange markets seem to have decided that 'Hanya Yanagihara - A Little Life' is the winner, already. Running at a very very short at x1.2. This is usually a very good market indicator, and luckily prices are also available at a much better x2.2 elsewhere (both Victor & '365).

    I also like the rank outsider 'Tom McCarthy - Satin Island' which was very recently available at x17, now only around x9. as it has a fancy cover design. But also..

    'Flipsnack', (App) built an algorithm to predict the winner of the Man Booker Prize based on the author’s nationality, the gender of its protagonist, its setting, and a wealth of other factors, 'believes Tom will be the winner'.

    A dabble on both these extremities could be the best plan, but still very hard to predict. Only a 6-horse race so that's a bonus. If you've read each one, you already got a good head start.

    There's a bunch of well read folks on BBC later at 19:30hrs summarising it all slightly better than this - just before the big announcement. Markets closing shortly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,240 ✭✭✭Juwwi

    "Anyhow the exchange markets seem to have decided that 'Hanya Yanagihara - A Little Life' is the winner, already. Running at a very very short at x1.2."

    Judging the exchange market by what something is available to back at is the wrong way to judge it,
    You are better off checking whats on the lay side or what it was traded at .

    1.91 €8
    2 €5
    2.02 €5
    2.04 €5
    2.1 €23
    2.14 €5
    2.16 €5
    2.26 €13
    2.28 €5

    this is what it has traded at so far .

    Im not saying your bet is a bad bet l know nothing about that market.

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Dawson Deep Frown

    Good point, actually on double-checking there is very little 'matched' on the exchange, so perhaps not a great indicator. x1.2 is very very short all the same for just 6 contenders, pulling 39% of bets via OC. There is also some correlation with the two other books with it half the price of any other. Ladbrokes went cold on Tom's book just earlier today from x17 into x9 before closing it, possible wildcard.

    Not any great interest in this one, just curious. Exchange trading might increase on it later tonight (pre-annoucement).

    Once 'near cert' for Spring 2016 however on the Novelties, would be Goldsmith for London Mayor (x2).
    Another good one for the Summer is for Oasis to make an appearance at Glasto' (decent value at x6).