Is a pre-2008 car price crash imminent?

Crasp

As post 2008 cars with (generally) cheaper tax are becoming older and cheaper, will the arsė fall out of the 2007 and older market completely?

Opinions?

The reason I ask is that, i'm thinking of upgrading soon.. at the moment there is already a big price gap from 2007 to 2008 cars.

If i buy a 2007 car today at a lower price than the same 2008 car, will it be even more difficult to sell/depreciate evenmore as 2008 cars become generally more affordable?

bazz26

I'd look at it the other way, 2008 cars still probably have a bit of over inflated value due to the cheaper tax.

Crasp

bazz26 wrote: »

I'd look at it the other way, 2008 cars still probably have a bit of over inflated value due to the cheaper tax.

Yes you're correct, but in a few years when that premium disappears, why would anyone buy the same 2007 car with more expensive tax.. i would think the price difference will increase..

2008 cars will drop, 2007 cars will drop even more...?

bazz26

Cheap motor tax will not be around forever especially as pre 2008 cars start disappearing off the roads and the majority of people have cars on the new tax system, the government will need to keep motor tax revenue at a sustainable level.

5W30

bazz26 wrote: »

Cheap motor tax will not be around forever especially as pre 2008 cars start disappearing off the roads and the majority of people have cars on the new tax system, the government will need to keep motor tax revenue at a sustainable level.

Is that not why Noonan is raising fuel tax?

Crasp

Crasp wrote: »

2008 cars will drop, 2007 cars will drop even more...?

Exactly - the older it gets, the less it'll be worth. This will go for any car, of any year

If you're worried about the resale value, keep your budget to below €1,000 and you'll not lose too much on depreciation Otherwise buy what you like and who cares what it'll be worth.

Del2005

The EU is going to force the low tax diesel cars off the road. They might be slightly better for CO2 but for the stuff that kills locally they are filthy and will be banned from most cities soon, the majority of EU cities have extremely high pollution levels.

I can see older petrol engines coming back into favour as modern diesels are taxed or banned from cities. There is no real alternative for cities as for the last 8 years very few petrols have been sold.

CiniO

bazz26 wrote: »

Cheap motor tax will not be around forever especially as pre 2008 cars start disappearing off the roads and the majority of people have cars on the new tax system, the government will need to keep motor tax revenue at a sustainable level.

So what do you reckon they'll do in the future?
Rise CO2 rates?
Except from low CO2 rates (Bands A and CO2 rates are fairly high, with crazy highest rates F - €1200 and G - €2350

ION08

Wouldnt surprise me if the govt would increase co2 rates for anything older than 5 yrs.

Atlantic Dawn

Once the government has people buying new cars to cover the motor tax lost the current system will work. Other incentives they could ad would be motor tax exemption for the first year of ownership if sales begin to dip.

colm_mcm

people are bound to fall for that!
tax is dead money.

Eric Cartman

theres a massive shortage of a lot of stuff especially at the higher end from 2008-2012 due to the aul recession, so a lot of that stock is still holding serious money as your next price option is a 2013 model which is obviously still worth a lot. I think you'll have a massive drop off in prices for 2005-2007 cars in 2018 when those cars are 10 years old and theres an ample supply of 2013 cars (which will be reasonably priced 5 year olds at that stage)

Special Circumstances

Eric Cartman wrote: »

theres a massive shortage of a lot of stuff especially at the higher end from 2008-2012 due to the aul recession, so a lot of that stock is still holding serious money as your next price option is a 2013 model which is obviously still worth a lot. I think you'll have a massive drop off in prices for 2005-2007 cars in 2018 when those cars are 10 years old and theres an ample supply of 2013 cars (which will be reasonably priced 5 year olds at that stage)

Yup, and the increased insurance for anything on annual NCT will slice their value before that.

Crasp

So is the smart money on the 2008 320d for ca. €15,000 or the 2007 model for ca. €10,000.

Eric Cartman

Crasp wrote: »

So is the smart money on the 2008 320d for ca. €15,000 or the 2007 model for ca. €10,000.

in 2018 the 2008 will probably be worth twice the 2007 model , but that'll be 2.5k / 5k

Crasp

Eric Cartman wrote: »

in 2018 the 2008 will probably be worth twice the 2007 model , but that'll be 2.5k / 5k

Where's that luxobarge thread gone...

Eric Cartman

you may swell buy something thats already had circa 80-100k wiped off its value and is pretty much rock bottom, the tax is expensive but you'll have no worries about depreciation really and be in a much comfier place. Also you can get some 04-05 barges for less money than your 07 320d, and it won't fall much further.

bazz26

You'd want your head examined paying circa 15k for a 2008 320d. I sold a 2008 M Sport with leather and sat nav for 15k about 2.5 years ago. It would want to have it's timing chain replaced at this stage too.

Crasp

Eric Cartman wrote: »

you may swell buy something thats already had circa 80-100k wiped off its value and is pretty much rock bottom, the tax is expensive but you'll have no worries about depreciation really and be in a much comfier place. Also you can get some 04-05 barges for less money than your 07 320d, and it won't fall much further.

I already own an s350!

bazz26 wrote: »

You'd want your head examined paying circa 15k for a 2008 320d. I sold a 2008 M Sport with leather and sat nav for 15k about 2.5 years ago. It would want to have it's timing chain replaced at this stage too.

Plenty ads asking 20k! (e92)

Eric Cartman

Crasp wrote: »

I already own an s350!

hold on to it, unless you can get an s500 so :pac: I wouldn't bother your time with a 320d

bazz26

Crasp wrote: »

Plenty ads asking 20k! (e92)

E92s fetch a bit more than E90s but asking 20k and selling for 20k are two different things.

cantdecide

Come to papa.

I'll gleefully buy cars like the above in years to come and happily pay the fuel and tax- the day to day costs are high but if you buy right, the risks will be lower.

digzy

Just wondering what value you'd stick on this executive model.
it's done over 100k miles. had a cracked head gasket so had that sorted about 10k miles ago. no regular service history. tbh I've fallen out of love with it by now esp with the 994 annual car tax.

I'd expect to be getting a quashqui within the next year. So i was thinking of selling it on done deal and buying straight from the garage. But reading this thread I'd be better off leaving it in moyross with the keys in it!!! They're asking 5k on done deal but I'd say it'd be a hard sell,

ION08

Crasp wrote: »

So is the smart money on the 2008 320d for ca. €15,000 or the 2007 model for ca. €10,000.

What is this countries obsession with 320d's - seriously?

After all of the well documented timing chain issues people seem to want to just look the other way and still flock towards these disasters of an engine in their droves!

Talk about being blinded by a badge and "chape tax".

The smart money is on a car which doesn't have a well documented serious design flaw that causes the engine to crap itself.

Crasp

ION08 wrote: »

What is this countries obsession with 320d's - seriously?

After all of the well documented timing chain issues people seem to want to just look the other way and still flock towards these disasters of an engine in their droves!

Talk about being blinded by a badge and "chape tax".

The smart money is on a car which doesn't have a well documented serious design flaw that causes the engine to crap itself.

Timing chain change isn't the end of the world.. plus it was only certain engine codes AFAIK?

MTBD

Crasp wrote: »

I already own an s350!



Plenty ads asking 20k! (e92)

And there is not a hope they will get it. We recently spent almost 3 months trying to offload an absolutely immaculate 2007 320d which had everything done (clutch flywheel), pre timing chain failure engine, fsh with 5 months BMW used warranty remaining. It was as clean as they come with only 130k miles (considering all the major jobs had been done the mileage was no reason to worry).

Ended up selling it for €5300. Ie a loss of €5000 in less than 2 years of second hand ownership. If someone is willing to pay €15000 more for a coupe which more than likely has none of these issues sorted then I'd be incredibly shocked.

Overall the worst car we have ever had. Chronically unreliable, ugly and hard to sell.

ION08

Crasp wrote: »

Timing chain change isn't the end of the world.. plus it was only certain engine codes AFAIK?

Timing chain change isnt the end of the world but if it goes, it's certainly the end of the engine!

As for engine codes, that would be the "N47" i.e most 07's and ALL 08's. But sure look its a beeeemer!

Idbatterim

look the premium for 08 v 07 in most cases is off the wall, particularly ifyou factor in loan interest to paying this premium. Most people before the emissions system werent paying too much anyway, i.e. most were 2 litre or under, then they go mad to save SFA like E300-400 a year if even, by spending a fortune...

The way I see it is this, the premium is way too big for 07 v 08 in most cases. We are nearly at 2016, in 2-3 years, anyone who thinks the 08 will still hold the massive premium is mistaken in my opinion, both will be deemed as old cars then and yeah the 08 all things equal will be worth more, but it will likely have all in, cost you a hell of a lot more.

The only reason we have this crazy scenario, is because of the motoring publics total ignorance. Depreciation and loan interest (not a cost) tax and daysul, the only cost :rolleyes:

Crasp

Idbatterim wrote: »

look the premium for 08 v 07 in most cases is off the wall, particularly ifyou factor in loan interest to paying this premium. Most people before the emissions system werent paying too much anyway, i.e. most were 2 litre or under, then they go mad to save SFA like E300-400 a year if even, by spending a fortune...

The way I see it is this, the premium is way too big for 07 v 08 in most cases. We are nearly at 2016, in 2-3 years, anyone who thinks the 08 will still hold the massive premium is mistaken in my opinion, both will be deemed as old cars then and yeah the 08 all things equal will be worth more, but it will likely have all in, cost you a hell of a lot more.

The only reason we have this crazy scenario, is because of the motoring publics total ignorance. Depreciation and loan interest (not a cost) tax and daysul, the only cost :rolleyes:

I agree entirely...


well if anyone can recommend a decent ~180bhp+ rear wheel drive car that looks as good as an m sport e92 and is as cheap to run please let me know always open to suggestions

MojoMaker

Where was there common agreement that the E92 looks good? In your opinion maybe, others might differ.

And an 08 320D is not cheap to run as any owner will testify, not without ignoring all the important standard jobs - the ones that, if haven't been done, simply shift the cost onto a new owner.

MojoMaker

Where was there common agreement that the E92 looks good? In your opinion maybe, others might differ.

And an 08 320D is not cheap to run as any owner will testify, not without ignoring all the important standard jobs - the ones that, if haven't been done, simply shift the cost onto a new owner.

Idbatterim

well if anyone can recommend a decent ~180bhp+ rear wheel drive car that looks as good as an m sport e92 and is as cheap to run please let me know always open to suggestions

would you go with an E46 m sport, better looking than the E92 in my opinion...

ION08

Crasp wrote: »

I agree entirely...


well if anyone can recommend a decent ~180bhp+ rear wheel drive car that looks as good as an m sport e92 and is as cheap to run please let me know always open to suggestions

Well, how about a 325d or a 330d?

-none of the cartastrophic issues assocaited with the 320d N47
-more power (over 200bhp)
-6 cylinders
-marginally more expensive to tax and to run

More expensive to buy but Far superior to 320d

Complete no brainer!

Marty McFly

Idbatterim wrote: »

would you go with an E46 m sport, better looking than the E92 in my opinion...

I wouldn't be a fan of the e46 at all think it has aged badly unlike the e39 imo.

ION08 wrote: »

Well, how about a 325d or a 330d?

-none of the cartastrophic issues assocaited with the 320d N47
-more power (over 200bhp)
-6 cylinders
-marginally more expensive to tax and to run

More expensive to buy but Far superior to 320d

Complete no brainer!

Or a 335d