RWC Pool D: Ireland vs France, Sun 11 October 4:45pm; TV3/ITV

thomond2006

The main event of the evening of Pool D is finally here as Ireland face France in Cardiff's Cauldron: Millenium Stadium. While both teams have achieved the minimum goal of qualification from the pool, the stakes are extremely high as the winner earns a more straightforward path to the latter stages of the tournament as well as an extra day of rest before their Quarter Final match. The loser will be forced to play New Zealand with a loss in the books against a top tier team and after a six day turnaround.

KEY BATTLE: THE CENTRES

Wesley Fofana and Mathieu Bastareaud are the established first choice partnership for their national team and they come up against an inexperienced pairing in Keith Earls and Robbie Henshaw.

Henshaw looks to be on his way to becoming a stalwart of the team and at 22 is still a long way from his prime years. The Six Nations showed that Henshaw was physically up to the challenge as he was one of Ireland's top defenders as they won a second consecutive Six Nations title. In the absence of Jared Payne, this match presents Keith Earls a chance to prove his doubters wrong when it comes to his ability to play in the centre in a crunch international tie. Earls had been in superb form as a winger and picked up a try last week against Italy in the 13 jersey so the omens are positive for a strong performance from the Munster man.

Clermont's superstar Wesley Fofana may not be in the electric form of 2012 but he remains an outstanding attacking player with incredible upper body strength. Mathieu Bastareaud is a wrecking ball of a rugby player and is the go to man for a no nonsense bludgeon in midfield. His strength at the breakdown is a key factor in his consistent selection for his country and Ireland will be aware that strong clearouts will be required to move this man mountain.

The key challenge for both partnerships will be their success at bringing the threats outside them into the game. None of the four starting centres are renowned passers and there may be opportunities missed as the players back themselves to make the crucial break. One poor decision in possession can be the difference between winning and losing the game.

HOW CAN IRELAND WIN?

Ireland's strength under Joe Schmidt has been their domination of the kicking battle and the level of pressure they can exert with a disciplined kick chase. The partnership of Sexton and Murray are arguably the best partnership in the world when it comes to a punishing kicking game that torments the opposition. The accusation of conservatism will always follow the team as kicks are not as beautiful to watch as an offload or a deadly sidestep but the reliance on tactical kicking has largely served Ireland well as a path to victory. France's wingers, Dulin and Nakatiaci, are going to put through their paces in positioning and safe hands with Ireland's halfbacks looking to exploit weaknesses. At fullback Scott Spedding will have to work hard to cover for his fellow back three players.

HOW CAN FRANCE WIN?

Traditionally Ireland find it difficult against the "Big French Pack" and the key man in the pack for France is Louis Picamoles. Like many players in a French jersey he has had a tendancy to blow hot and cold in his performances but his recent showings have shown promise that he is returning to his best form. Once Picamoles builds speed in possession he is incredibly difficult to drag down. With the closest Irish player to Picamoles in Iain Henderson having to contend himself with a bench spot, we should expect Picamoles to be the dominant ball carrier in the match. Even if France are stuttering in attack Picamoles is a reliable carrier, when he has his head screwed on!

PREDICTION:
Les Verts by 5.




























...and if so happens Ireland are struggling, maybe our favourite ref will give us a dig out!

Pink Fairy

Great write up, but am extremely worried by this game. Think we have to keep it tight, and its not going to be a game for the purists, plenty of garryowens all day long and territory is king.
I predict 15-11 to Ireland

Neil3030

In Joe we trust. Ireland to edge it in a bumhole tightener.

Losty Dublin

France

I don't know about the chances of the French this time round. They are stretched for front row cover this weekend. Normally they'd be okay but given this is going to be a very tight game the scrums will be more critical than ever for the full 80. Healy is a huge extra carrier to have as well but to be able to call on McGrath is going to be a game turner late in the day.

As well, I don't think that their breakdown play is as strong as ours and this is going to lead to penalties or scrums against. Even to slow their feed from rucks and scrums will slow down the tried and trusted Bastereaud crash ball tactics and this will hurt them overall. I'll go with Ireland to win, 19-13, but it will be a late win and it will be a Madigan kick to seal it.

mfceiling

At last Thomond....been looking forward to the write up more than the game!!

shootermacg

France

rrpc wrote: »

You do know Payne isn't in the squad? Earls is starting.

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUck, I'd have Fitz in the centre rather than Earls, he's just not a centre!

ixus

My concern would be a euphoric 2pt victory against France followed by an underperforming loss to Arg. Rather flip, lose to Fra and beat NZ!

thebaz

shootermacg wrote: »

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUck, I'd have Fitz in the centre rather than Earls, he's just not a centre!

to me it sounds like Earls was selected over Payne, that been the case, biggest call of Joe's career, it if comes off , kudos, and I will never question his judgement, if it doesn't , serious questions will be asked - too many false dawns at previous WC's , where we have just got things wrong on the big stage

Ardillaun

France

Brave prediction there, th. I must admit I voted for Ireland above mainly because I feel I have to. Quite a few of our players - right up to the holiest of holy names - have question marks beside them for me right now.

efb

France

Owens is the whistler for this one, could prove interesting

kuang1

France

Nice concise work thomond.
Arrived in cardiff yesterday. Met a few bunches* of french lads who are not at all confident of a french victory.
Now, that in itself doesn't give me confidence. What does give me a little bit though, is what they all (to a man) said when I asked them why...

"Schmidt. You have Schmidt."

(Met 3 different groups of Frenchies, total of 12 lads, camped beside 6 of them. So a 'straw poll' at best!)

pc7

Matt Williams

Great write up, I just can't shake the fear on this one and feel France for the win

stephen_n

France

Can't call it, I fancied us to nick it all along but the loss of Payne is massive, defensively himself and Henshaw form an incredibly good unit, I still don't see Earls as a centre and although his tackling has been good, the thoughts of Basteraud running down his throat scares me. I do expect us to be far more dynamic though this weekend and with a far higher level of intensity than last weekend.

sydthebeat

France

Ireland by 10.

This game is basically our world cup. If we cannot hit our top intensity for this game then there are serious issues.
So after we at least match them but hopefully beat them for intensity and work rate, it them comes down to tactics. Its here where we certainly have the upper hand. If we pressurise their halves they are lost, pure and simple. They do not have a strong kicking game to fall back on. I want to see a fast defensive line all evening and i want to see henshaw hit basta behind the gain line everytime. They are deadly in broken open play so we need our scramble defense to be honest and sharp.
And of course, we cannot repeat the silly penalties of the Italy game.

If both teams play to their potential (as a team) I believe we are about 10 points better,

kuang1

France

sydthebeat wrote: »

Ireland by 10.

This game is basically our world cup. If we cannot hit our top intensity for this game then there are serious issues.
So after we at least match them but hopefully beat them for intensity and work rate, it them comes down to tactics. Its here where we certainly have the upper hand. If we pressurise their halves they are lost, pure and simple. They do not have a strong kicking game to fall back on. I want to see a fast defensive line all evening and i want to see henshaw hit basta behind the gain line everytime. They are deadly in broken open play so we need our scramble defense to be honest and sharp.
And of course, we cannot repeat the silly penalties of the Italy game.

If both teams play to their potential (as a team) I believe we are about 10 points better,

Yeah totally agree with all of this.
Although I think we're actually more than 10 better than them if both teams play to their best!

I really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really really hope Earls holds up against this stiff French test.

C'mon Keith...show us what you're able for. Chop Bastareaud all day...

France

Great write up Thomond, nerves starting to settle now.

Thought about it over the rice crispies this morning. Ireland will win this game and win it reasonably well. Why? Because we have to.

There are no guarantee's against Argentina and NZ are looking a bit vulnerable but the reality is if we want to contend this world cup we need to keep winning our games.

I think this is going to be an extremely tough test but I think Ireland have more to go back into the bag for than this French team do and I think we are resting our fears on the demons of France past, not present.

Nothing to fear on Sunday but our own under performance. France, let's be havin ye!

.ak

thebaz wrote: »

to me it sounds like Earls was selected over Payne, that been the case, biggest call of Joe's career, it if comes off , kudos, and I will never question his judgement, if it doesn't , serious questions will be asked - too many false dawns at previous WC's , where we have just got things wrong on the big stage

He wasn't, Schmidt said in the press conference it was due to his foot flaring up after training.

Earls had to play, ANOTHER new combo in the midfield just wouldn't be good for the continuity there.

Henshaw and Payne are undoubtedly the first choice pair if both are 100%, relatively speaking.

I actually don't think Earls will need to worry about basteraud - they'll send him down our 10 channel all day, sexton and Henshaw and sob will handle him.

My worry is Fofana vs Earls with a bit of space terrifies me... Earls can read the plays well but he's guilty of over killing the space, I can see Fofana bamboozling him a few times. Our scramble defence will need to be excellent - line breaks will happen.

MugMugs

France

You've pretty much hit the nail on the head. Basteraud loves nothing more than knocking Sexy on his backside. Earls v Fofana could lead to some serious space being given. That could be our main downfall

Akrasia

France

Sean O Brien to put in a huge hit on Bastareaud in the opening minutes to show him who's boss

bilston

stephen_n wrote: »

Can't call it, I fancied us to nick it all along but the loss of Payne is massive, defensively himself and Henshaw form an incredibly good unit, I still don't see Earls as a centre and although his tackling has been good, the thoughts of Basteraud running down his throat scares me. I do expect us to be far more dynamic though this weekend and with a far higher level of intensity than last weekend.

Sums up my feelings exactly.

I've come round more to the idea of Ireland having more plays up their sleeve tomorrow. We've seen it in the past with Joe's teams come the big games.

Clermont in 2012 (?)
New Zealand in 2013
France in 2014
Scotland in 2015

Those were four huge games and on each occasion I can remember a differe t dimension to the team he was coaching on the day. I expect it will be the same tomorrow.

However not having Payne is a huge blow, however I suspect he was never going to be fit and it was all mind games that we ever thought he would play, therefore Earls will have spent the whole week training at 13.

kuang1

France

Yeah fofanna has been finding form of late no doubt.
SOB to play well...sure.
But I've a sneaky suspicion of us singing the praises of a certain Rory Best come Sunday night.
I can see him having an absolute stormer.

stadedublinois

Losty Dublin wrote: »

I don't know about the chances of the French this time round. They are stretched for front row cover this weekend. Normally they'd be okay but given this is going to be a very tight game the scrums will be more critical than ever for the full 80. Healy is a huge extra carrier to have as well but to be able to call on McGrath is going to be a game turner late in the day.

Why are we stretched for front row cover? Debaty, Mas and Kayser aren't huge steps down from the starters (doesn't mean we won't struggle in the scrum, but don't think the bench will be the issue). Atonio is better in open play but more unreliable in the scrum than Mas.

kuang1

France

kuang1 wrote: »

Yeah fofanna has been finding form of late no doubt.
SOB to play well...sure.
But I've a sneaky suspicion of us singing the praises of a certain Rory Best come Sunday night.
I can see him having an absolute stormer.

With the game plan were going for Best is going to be critical but he's such a big game player that I've total faith in him.

I think most of the team are going to need to have total stormers in all reality.

jacothelad

stadedublinois wrote: »

Why are we stretched for front row cover? Debaty, Mas and Kayser aren't huge steps down from the starters (doesn't mean we won't struggle in the scrum, but don't think the bench will be the issue). Atonio is better in open play but more unreliable in the scrum than Mas.

I agree although Antonio gave the Irish scrum a pasting when he came on in 2013????. Debaty also pasted the excrement out of Moore this season and Kayser is an excellent player.

As for Nigel doing us a favour......????? It hasn't happened before so why should it now. It is widely thought that he has favoured Irish teams in the past in 'Club' games. The perception is widespread. I think he now bends over backwards to prove he isn't and his 'impartiality' has swung entirely against Ireland. e.g. the non penalty he awarded v. McGrath in the AB game in Nov. 13 that didn't happen was never an infringement. The penalty against Ireland's scrum when they blitzed the AB scrum to dust in 2012 (?) was a shocker. They simply were wiped so he penalised Ireland for 'running round' which was nonsense. Let's see if this happens again. He may have a 'feel' for the game but that doesn't mean he is always right. I've seen him deliver some howlers in the Pro12 as both a ref and in interventions as an A.R. Not on the same scale as shocking Lacey or that other numpty Clancy but I would look very hard at his recent performances before kissing his metaphoric ring.

In terms of the Irish centres, I have yet to see exactly the rising star performances of Henshaw. I have seen him play well in a poor enough Connacht side and play sort of o.k. for Ireland but he is a long way short of the hype to date. He is big, strong, fast and skilled enough so he won't let us down. Earls on the other hand is not as good as Fofana in any measure and Bastareau is a mountain he will never climb. Earls should be on the wing and if Schmidt can't see the value of Cave at 13 then he should put his love child Zoolander in there. If Bastareau is gonna run over anyone it may as well be an empty shirt.

stephen_n

France

jacothelad wrote: »

If Bastareau is gonna run over anyone it may as well be an empty shirt.

I suppose there is that argument for picking Cave alright, though af least Earls has the pace for Internstional rugby and might exploit a gap if it opens.

rrpc

France

jacothelad wrote: »

As for Nigel doing us a favour......????? It hasn't happened before so why should it now. It is widely thought that he has favoured Irish teams in the past in 'Club' games. The perception is widespread. I think he now bends over backwards to prove he isn't and his 'impartiality' has swung entirely against Ireland. e.g. the non penalty he awarded v. McGrath in the AB game in Nov. 13 that didn't happen was never an infringement. The penalty against Ireland's scrum when they blitzed the AB scrum to dust in 2012 (?) was a shocker. They simply were wiped so he penalised Ireland for 'running round' which was nonsense. Let's see if this happens again. He may have a 'feel' for the game but that doesn't mean he is always right. I've seen him deliver some howlers in the Pro12 as both a ref and in interventions as an A.R. Not on the same scale as shocking Lacey or that other numpty Clancy but I would look very hard at his recent performances before kissing his metaphoric ring.

Yep, I like Nigel as a ref, but he does make some howlers and the one that didn't happen was one of the worst. The positives are that he likes the game to flow, so if we can string some phases together he will let it get a bit messy on our side rather than blow up for a pedantic infringement. I worry though if the game gets tight towards the end, because he will favour the attacking team and could do another number on us.

jacothelad wrote: »

In terms of the Irish centres, I have yet to see exactly the rising star performances of Henshaw. I have seen him play well in a poor enough Connacht side and play sort of o.k. for Ireland but he is a long way short of the hype to date. He is big, strong, fast and skilled enough so he won't let us down. Earls on the other hand is not as good as Fofana in any measure and Bastareau is a mountain he will never climb. Earls should be on the wing and if Schmidt can't see the value of Cave at 13 then he should put his love child Zoolander in there. If Bastareau is gonna run over anyone it may as well be an empty shirt.

Who's Zoolander? I'm equally worried and hopeful for Earls. After all, BOD said he was the hardest guy to tackle in training and he can be an elusive runner but only if he has a bit of space to work with. I'm not sure why you don't see what Henshaw brings, but for me it's his ability to break a tackle and get past the gain line. If things break up a bit in midfield, he's one of the best to take advantage and so long as Earls stays on his coat tails, we could have a good clean break on our hands.

Joe reckons that Bastareaud will be handled more by Sexton and Henshaw, so Keet will have to take Fofana on. Although they wear the 12 and 13 jerseys, Bastareaud seems to pop up in the 12 position quite a bit more than 13.

I still can't call it though. We need to hit the ground running and up the accuracy by 100%.

total former

30 hours to kick off. Bit early to be blaming the ref.

ulster_Beef

Payne out with a broken foot

bilston

Payne gone for the tournament...Balls...

pc7

Matt Williams

ulster_Beef wrote: »

Payne out with a broken foot

Will they send him home, or can that heal in a week?

irishbucsfan

pc7 wrote: »

Will they send him home, or can that heal in a week?

His tournament is over

http://www.the42.ie/jared-payne-foot-injury-ruled-out-world-cup-2380039-Oct2015/

pc7

Matt Williams

That's tough poor guy

Rosie Gardens

irishbucsfan wrote: »

His tournament is over

http://www.the42.ie/jared-payne-foot-injury-ruled-out-world-cup-2380039-Oct2015/

Who to replace him? Trimble/McCloskey/McFadden (it more than likely won't be Fadders, I'm just throwing it out there)

lbj666

irishbucsfan wrote: »

His tournament is over

http://www.the42.ie/jared-payne-foot-injury-ruled-out-world-cup-2380039-Oct2015/

Is trimble fit at the moment? Heard he took another knock recently.

mjp

Who will replace him?? Highlights how light we are on natural centres with o Driscoll and darcy gone in last year. Too many versatile players in the backs with very few of them playing in settled position for long period. Something that IRFU probably should have insisted upon in giving likes of bowe/ fitzgerald some more gametime in provincial games as it's clear they don't see Cave as being upto international standard and madigan is not a starting option due to his size/defence. Bringing in the likes of mc fadden or Trimble won't offer you anything different to what we currently have in squad. Hence why id take a risk and go with mc. Closkey from ulster who is a big physical player who offers us something different

lbj666

mjp wrote: »

Who will replace him?? Highlights how light we are on natural centres with o Driscoll and darcy gone in last year. Too many versatile players in the backs with very few of them playing in settled position for long period. Something that IRFU probably should have insisted upon in giving likes of bowe/ fitzgerald some more gametime in provincial games as it's clear they don't see Cave as being upto international standard and madigan is not a starting option due to his size/defence. Bringing in the likes of mc fadden or Trimble won't offer you anything different to what we currently have in squad. Hence why id take a risk and go with mc. Closkey from ulster who is a big physical player who offers us something different or

E

Its probably going to be trimble for a wing spot and leaving Earls and Fitz to focus on centre for the rest of the tournament.

.ak

Mad, how did they not spot a broken a foot?? Tbh we really need him.

I presume Trimble will replace him.

Akrasia

France

jacothelad wrote: »

As for Nigel doing us a favour......????? It hasn't happened before so why should it now. It is widely thought that he has favoured Irish teams in the past in 'Club' games. The perception is widespread. I think he now bends over backwards to prove he isn't and his 'impartiality' has swung entirely against Ireland. e.g. the non penalty he awarded v. McGrath in the AB game in Nov. 13 that didn't happen was never an infringement. The penalty against Ireland's scrum when they blitzed the AB scrum to dust in 2012 (?) was a shocker. They simply were wiped so he penalised Ireland for 'running round' which was nonsense. Let's see if this happens again. He may have a 'feel' for the game but that doesn't mean he is always right. I've seen him deliver some howlers in the Pro12 as both a ref and in interventions as an A.R. Not on the same scale as shocking Lacey or that other numpty Clancy but I would look very hard at his recent performances before kissing his metaphoric ring.

All referees make mistakes and wrong calls, but at least Nigel tends to be consistent and communicates well with the teams. Other referees can choke a performance by constantly pinging them for different reasons and not explaining what his reasons are. This must really unsettle players because they're getting penalties given against them for doing things that the other team are blatantly doing as well so it's an unfair competition at the breakdown.

Referees need to communicate their decisions to the players and apply the same rules to both teams. Owens usually does this pretty well. Individual decisions aside, in most matches both teams will feel some of the calls have unfairly gone against them.

irishbucsfan

.ak wrote: »

Mad, how did they not spot a broken a foot?? Tbh we really need him.

I presume Trimble will replace him.

It's a fracture, there's plenty of ways that can escape detection.

The Rape of Lucretia

mjp wrote: »

madigan is not a starting option due to his size/defence.

Madser is an excellent tackler.

shootermacg

France

I really hope Trimble makes the squad, I honestly feel he was robbed. Couldn't ask for a better player, honest, brave, experienced and total beast mode too, something we seem to be lacking at the minute.

mfceiling

total former wrote: »

30 hours to kick off. Bit early to be blaming the ref.

It's never too early!!

kuang1

France

Yeah Payne is a loss no doubt. Feel for the guy. Already looking forward to seeing him back for the 6N.
Is it a bit disheartening for Cave not to slot in there?
Personally would have no issue with Cave starting at 13.

thebaz

.ak wrote: »

He wasn't, Schmidt said in the press conference it was due to his foot flaring up after training.

Earls had to play, ANOTHER new combo in the midfield just wouldn't be good for the continuity there.

Henshaw and Payne are undoubtedly the first choice pair if both are 100%, relatively speaking.

I actually don't think Earls will need to worry about basteraud - they'll send him down our 10 channel all day, sexton and Henshaw and sob will handle him.

ok, I was wrong, Payne is now out of WC, certainly was not clear yesterday. I think they will target Earls now, rather than Sexton with Basteraud, it is a bit of a nightmare , losing 3 of our 4 work class centres in a year, hopefully Earls proves me wrong , but I worry

Hermy

At the start of this campaign I asked what Ireland team would turn up.
So far they've got the job done but the intensity has really been lacking over the past seven games.
I hope that changes tomorrow as I'm not convinced our kicking game will be enough to get beyond the quarter final.

postitnote

France

Bad news for Payne. Great news for whoever gets called up, Trimble hopefully.

I expect Ireland to win tomorrow. That expectation has been building since Joe took over. It's optimistic of course, but I've spent the last couple of years reading opinions here on how Ireland are holding back, Joe is a master tactician and the squad will click when it matters.

I trust the opinions of those here that spend a lot more time watching the other provinces playing rugby week in week out. So I've surrounded myself with yes men, yes we can do this and beat the French by outplaying them.

I really have no other opinion to offer here. Someone here always has good foresight and knowledge of where Ireland are right now.

That's why I'll continue to like the posts I agree with and generally keep my mouth shut the rest of the time.

It's amazing to be going into a french game at the RWC with so much hope.

Allez les Vertes!!

Now I'm away to YouTube to watch the first 20 mins of a certain game that never happened in 2013.

rrpc

France

shootermacg wrote: »

I really hope Trimble makes the squad, I honestly feel he was robbed. Couldn't ask for a better player, honest, brave, experienced and total beast mode too, something we seem to be lacking at the minute.

Yeah, Trimble would be at or near the top of the list. Really depends on what happens tomorrow though, so they're wise to wait and see.

Sever Tomorrow

pc7 wrote: »

Will they send him home, or can that heal in a week?

Tigerandahalf

Payne is a big loss. Worried about Earls filling in. Not so much about Basteraud but Earls seems to get confused when having to defend the space in the 13 channel. Payne was brilliant at that. I don't think we have seen a line break against Henshaw/Payne yet. Whether France have enough time to change tactics in attacking that area we will have to see. I hope Earls plays well as he will be an easy scapegoat if things go wrong. His pace will hopefully help the backline.
Schmidt has to take some blame for not developing other options for that 13 position.
Hopefully it is a good game. I wonder what the weather forecast is like for it? The tournament has been blessed with good weather so far. Ire's conservative gameplan might be aided by poorer conditions.

duckysauce

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Payne is a big loss. Worried about Earls filling in. Not so much about Basteraud but Earls seems to get confused when having to defend the space in the 13 channel. Payne was brilliant at that. I don't think we have seen a line break against Henshaw/Payne yet. Whether France have enough time to change tactics in attacking that area we will have to see. I hope Earls plays well as he will be an easy scapegoat if things go wrong. His pace will hopefully help the backline.
Schmidt has to take some blame for not developing other options for that 13 position.
Hopefully it is a good game. I wonder what the weather forecast is like for it? The tournament has been blessed with good weather so far. Ire's conservative gameplan might be aided by poorer conditions.

its in cardiff

Tigerandahalf

duckysauce wrote: »

its in cardiff

Just checked the satellite images on met eireann. Looks like a dry day is in store.