Is a few 3-1 Winners too much to ask for?

realdanbreen

If I do a €2 e/w trixie,cost €16.00, and the 3 horses win @ 3-1,I will get €253.09. That will do me fine. Is it too much to ask that someone can give me 3 x 3-1(or better!) winners for tomorrow. I'm not looking for inside info from the trainers yard, jockeys girlfriends mother or anything like that. Nor am I looking for 20-1 or 16-1 winners, just 3 horses that will win or place in 3 races.:cool:

danganabu

realdanbreen wrote: »

If I do a €2 e/w trixie,cost €16.00, and the 3 horses win @ 3-1,I will get €253.09. That will do me fine. Is it too much to ask that someone can give me 3 x 3-1(or better!) winners for tomorrow. I'm not looking for inside info from the trainers yard, jockeys girlfriends mother or anything like that. Nor am I looking for 20-1 or 16-1 winners, just 3 horses that will win or place in 3 races.:cool:

If you backing 3/1 shots e/w you are doing it wrong, and if someone here can give you a tip that returns a 1500% ROI, I don't think they would be frequenting boards.ie and handing out tips for free

posturingpat

danganabu wrote: »

If you backing 3/1 shots e/w you are doing it wrong, and if someone here can give you a tip that returns a 1500% ROI, I don't think they would be frequenting boards.ie and handing out tips for free

A common mistake, if you're good enough backing 3/1 e/w can prove profitable long term if you're good enough to get sufficient wins and places of course.

realdanbreen

danganabu wrote: »

If you backing 3/1 shots e/w you are doing it wrong, and if someone here can give you a tip that returns a 1500% ROI, I don't think they would be frequenting boards.ie and handing out tips for free

So you think 253 return for 16 is not good enough? .
Sorry dangan I didn't realise things were so plentifull down by Lough Derg.

Bangor Billy

realdanbreen wrote: »

If I do a €2 e/w trixie,cost €16.00, and the 3 horses win @ 3-1,I will get €253.09. That will do me fine. Is it too much to ask that someone can give me 3 x 3-1(or better!) winners for tomorrow. I'm not looking for inside info from the trainers yard, jockeys girlfriends mother or anything like that. Nor am I looking for 20-1 or 16-1 winners, just 3 horses that will win or place in 3 races.:cool:

or you could always study the form and find them for yourself

danganabu

posturingpat wrote: »

A common mistake, if you're good enough backing 3/1 e/w can prove profitable long term if you're good enough to get sufficient wins and places of course.

Absolutely not, especially in a combination bet like the above.

A €2 e/w trixie with 3 places @ 1/4 the odds ( being generous here) will return €29, less than evs!

You say it can be profitable if you are consistently backing enough winners, well then surely a €4 trixie which would return over €500 is a far more profitable approach long term.

diomed

Just do a three horse accumulator.
I did a €30 one in Leopardstown in 2002 that paid about €1,100 from the on-course Paddy Power shop.
I've just looked it up and it was probably Dress To Thrill 2/1; Sights On Gold 2/1; Grandera 5/2. The prices taken for the first two were probably slightly above 2/1.
A four horse accumulator is my bet of choice.

danganabu

realdanbreen wrote: »

So you think 253 return for 16 is not good enough? .
Sorry dangan I didn't realise things were so plentifull down by Lough Derg.

Fair enough so dont bother to actually read the post, happy punting!

realdanbreen

Bangor Billy wrote: »

or you could always study the form and find them for yourself

Thanks for that pearl of wisdom Billy!

realdanbreen

danganabu wrote: »

Absolutely not, especially in a combination bet like the above.

A €2 e/w trixie with 3 places @ 1/4 the odds ( being generous here) will return €29, less than evs!

You say it can be profitable if you are consistently backing enough winners, well then surely a €4 trixie which would return over €500 is a far more profitable approach long term.

Sigh!
All I want is 3 short priced winners, not a load of waffle.

danganabu

realdanbreen wrote: »

Sigh!
All I want is 3 short priced winners, not a load of waffle.

Fair enough - a) realdanbreen is a bookies wet dream b) realdanbreen wouldn't know one end of a horse from the other and c) realdanbreen will not be a millionaire this time next year

They are all very short odds but stome cold certainties, enjoy!

posturingpat

danganabu wrote: »

Absolutely not, especially in a combination bet like the above.

A €2 e/w trixie with 3 places @ 1/4 the odds ( being generous here) will return €29, less than evs!

You say it can be profitable if you are consistently backing enough winners, well then surely a €4 trixie which would return over €500 is a far more profitable approach long term.

I meant the comment "If you backing 3/1 shots e/w you are doing it wrong" as a separate comment to anything else. I know someone who backs e/w anything down to 5/2 and makes it pay. It takes hard work and selective punting but can be profitable.

danganabu

posturingpat wrote: »

I meant the comment "If you backing 3/1 shots e/w you are doing it wrong" as a separate comment to anything else. I know someone who backs e/w anything down to 5/2 and makes it pay. It takes hard work and selective punting but can be profitable.

Yes e/w punting can be profitable especially in certain races/conditions where there is an edge, multiples negate that and only increases the bookies edge. All the more so when it is some random punter who is willing to back any selection thrown at him on an internet forum.

posturingpat

danganabu wrote: »

Yes e/w punting can be profitable especially in certain races/conditions where there is an edge, multiples negate that and only increases the bookies edge. All the more so when it is some random punter who is willing to back any selection thrown at him on an internet forum.

I think we're singing of the same hymnsheet i just took your original comment out of context, my apologies.:o

realdanbreen

danganabu wrote: »

Yes e/w punting can be profitable especially in certain races/conditions where there is an edge, multiples negate that and only increases the bookies edge. All the more so when it is some random punter who is willing to back any selection thrown at him on an internet forum.

I have no interest in your opinion on profitable punting, e/w or otherwise. The thread is not about that. All I want is 3 short priced winners! How hard is that?

danganabu

realdanbreen wrote: »

I have no interest in your opinion on profitable punting, e/w or otherwise. The thread is not about that. All I want is 3 short priced winners! How hard is that?

I wasn't replying to you, can you actually read?, and your three good things are in post #11

BumperD

Dan, it's going to be difficult to find 3 good things in one day. Just have a flick through the daily threads here for the last month. For the most part, posters are trying to identify winners. The strike rate is rarely 3 out of 3. Good luck with it anyway.

Pinesky

When Lord Beaverbrook hired Richard Baerlein as racing correspondent ,making him the highest paid journalist in Britain he had one condition , that Baerlein would guarantee one winner a day .
Baerlein replied '' if i could guarantee one winner a day, you would be working for me Sir ''.

realdanbreen

BumperD wrote: »

Dan, it's going to be difficult to find 3 good things in one day. Just have a flick through the daily threads here for the last month. For the most part, posters are trying to identify winners. The strike rate is rarely 3 out of 3. Good luck with it anyway.

The thing is Bump that the daily threads here usually have fellas giving out
8-1 + 'tips' which usually come up short. All I'm asking for is 3 short priced horses to win or place. I guess my whole point is that having daily threads here isn't a whole lot of use if nobody can fill an E/W Trixie !

realdanbreen

realdanbreen wrote: »

The thing is Bump that the daily threads here usually have fellas giving out
8-1 + 'tips' which usually come up short. All I'm asking for is 3 short priced horses to win or place. I guess my whole point is that having daily threads here isn't a whole lot of use if nobody can fill an E/W Trixie !

And I suppose I'd have a better chance of seeing pigs fly than filling an E/W Yankee or Lucky 15 !

byronbay2

You're being greedy. Instead of 3 winners on any given day, look for one. Large win (or e/w) singles are how you make money gambling, not Trixies and definitely not Yankees and Lucky 15s. You need to think long-term. Imo, it has never been easier to make a profit from gambling but you are going about it the wrong way.

Also, 3/1 is not a short price imo; 6/4 or less is what I would call "short".

realdanbreen

I know singles are your safest way to win,that's simply common sense, but for that to be worthwile you have to bet fairly big which is leving yourself exposed. Whereas for small money you can win big on multiples. BTW most of my multiples would be spread over several days,sometimes weeks racing.

bellybuster12

realdanbreen wrote: »

I know singles are your safest way to win,that's simply common sense, but for that to be worthwile you have to bet fairly big which is leving yourself exposed. Whereas for small money you can win big on multiples. BTW most of my multiples would be spread over several days,sometimes weeks racing.

It's all about bankroll management, if you're exposed in anyway it's failure straight off the bat. It's all about long term results with a roll/betting pot. Small mutiples are fun bets and should be treated as money down the drain every time such a bet is placed.

nuckeythompson

bellybuster12 wrote:

It's all about bankroll management, if you're exposed in anyway it's failure straight off the bat. It's all about long term results with a roll/betting pot. Small mutiples are fun bets and should be treated as money down the drain every time such a bet is placed.

Spot on

Hulk Hands

posturingpat wrote: »

I meant the comment "If you backing 3/1 shots e/w you are doing it wrong" as a separate comment to anything else. I know someone who backs e/w anything down to 5/2 and makes it pay. It takes hard work and selective punting but can be profitable.

If he's truly making it pay he wouldn't have a hard and fast rule about no e/w below 5/2 etc. E/W is 2 seperate bets, getting value on the place part should be the only consideration when opting for it. Extreme example: say a horse is Evens to win a 1/4 odds 8 runner race, but 1/8 on the exchange to place, thats an ok e/w bet (provided the win part is value also obv). Getting 1/4 a place on a 1/8 shot

danganabu wrote: »

Yes e/w punting can be profitable especially in certain races/conditions where there is an edge, multiples negate that and only increases the bookies edge. All the more so when it is some random punter who is willing to back any selection thrown at him on an internet forum.

I used to think this also. It's a good rule starting out I think to steer clear of multiples etc. But multiples only work in the bookies favour when they have margin in their favour. Obviously we're looking for bets where the margin is in our favour rather than theres. So say you have a bad e/w bet where your EV is +2%, combine that with two more bad e/w bets with positive EV, the margin multiplies out in your favour. Especially handy for bad e/w bets where the positive margin is in the place part and you'd like the small return to roll onto something else. Bad e/w doubles/trebles/accums etc will get your accounts restricted and closed in no time, with bookies hating them for good reason

posturingpat

Hulk Hands wrote: »

If he's truly making it pay he wouldn't have a hard and fast rule about no e/w below 5/2 etc. E/W is 2 seperate bets, getting value on the place part should be the only consideration when opting for it. Extreme example: say a horse is Evens to win a 1/4 odds 8 runner race, but 1/8 on the exchange to place, thats an ok e/w bet (provided the win part is value also obv). Getting 1/4 a place on a 1/8 shot



I used to think this also. It's a good rule starting out I think to steer clear of multiples etc. But multiples only work in the bookies favour when they have margin in their favour. Obviously we're looking for bets where the margin is in our favour rather than theres. So say you have a bad e/w bet where your EV is +2%, combine that with two more bad e/w bets with positive EV, the margin multiplies out in your favour. Especially handy for bad e/w bets where the positive margin is in the place part and you'd like the small return to roll onto something else. Bad e/w doubles/trebles/accums etc will get your accounts restricted and closed in no time, with bookies hating them for good reason

I'm his accountant,he makes it pay.

NewApproach

danganabu wrote: »

If you backing 3/1 shots e/w you are doing it wrong, and if someone here can give you a tip that returns a 1500% ROI, I don't think they would be frequenting boards.ie and handing out tips for free

Wrong.

danganabu wrote: »

Yes e/w punting can be profitable especially in certain races/conditions where there is an edge, multiples negate that and only increases the bookies edge. All the more so when it is some random punter who is willing to back any selection thrown at him on an internet forum.

Even more wrong.

realdanbreen

NewApproach wrote: »

Wrong.



Even more wrong.

Don't you mean 'wronger'

realdanbreen

Have my 3 for nest e/w patent sorted.
First goes today, Trucanini 5/1 Kempton 8.15.:cool:

realdanbreen

Got one up the other day. A 7-2, 7-2 and a 5-2.
Got back €270 for my €16.:D

NeverWaining

This thread should be burnt at the stake.

BumperD

NeverWaining wrote: »

This thread should be burnt at the stake.

:pac:

realdanbreen

NeverWaining wrote: »

This thread should be burnt at the stake.

Just when I'm turning a profit!;)

BTW, I fully expect to get another 3 up before the weekend.

BumperD

realdanbreen wrote: »

Just when I'm turning a profit!;)

BTW, I fully expect to get another 3 up before the weekend.

Stick them up here in advance

realdanbreen

Of course,once I have my bet on up they go.

mailburner

NeverWaining wrote: »

This thread should be burnt at the stake.

love it