Picking a winner.

realdanbreen

Assuming there are only two things that you look for when picking a winner, what two things do you go for?
For me its Course & distance record + trainer. Others look at breeding, jockey,form,etc-how about you?

bladespin

Rossom's input of course.

mailburner

ground/distance/recent form key for me

jockey bookings sometimes and occasionally one that has either won or run well in that same race in the past that may have been primed again to try and win that particular race
sometimes I follow one I may have backed that wasn't put into the race at all

tend to follow a few horses that always give their or gave their running at a particular course...two that come to mind were denman and balthazar king but too many others to name but most top class ones
I also find it enouraging when a certain trainer has won a particular race a lot and moreso when theres a few pound for it

longshotvalue

form that reads like 0000P08

My number 1 reason is, has the horse the form to get the job done of this mark and can i find a reason why he might get out of the slump today..

BumperD

My first port of call is oddschecker.

Can be very informative to relative chances.

After that, the horses form.

shmeee

BumperD wrote: »

My first port of call is oddschecker.

Can be very informative to relative chances.

After that, the horses form.

Exact, same, If I fancy a horse / get word, I'd be straight to oddschecker to see how it's trading around, and when you see it all blue, alway a plus.

shmeee

shmeee wrote: »

Exact, same, If I fancy a horse / get word, I'd be straight to oddschecker to see how it's trading around, and when you see it all blue, alway a plus.

And a few mins later the above comes into use.

And just going though my tracker email now and one horse is taking cash already so a good sign, Casterbridge 5.40 Pont is the horse BTW. Next step I see it's back down in Class also, good signs for me when picking a winner. Will be having a bet.

gazza1

One thing i always look out for is h'cap debutants. And when it comes to NH if they have been upped in trip. There were a number of horses last season (names escape me) that when they made there h'cap debut they were upped from 2m to 3m and won easy. Worth keeping an eye on it

gazza1

gazza1 wrote: »

One thing i always look out for is h'cap debutants. And when it comes to NH if they have been upped in trip. There were a number of horses last season (names escape me) that when they made there h'cap debut they were upped from 2m to 3m and won easy. Worth keeping an eye on it

There was a prime example there in the last at chelmsford. TAFALOU. Ran first 3 races over 7,8 and 9f and made no impression. H'cap debut tonight and upped to 13f and a significant improvement to finish 3rd. Traded at 10s throughout the day and sp 6/1. Never looked at the card just turned on atr and watched it

Gregk961

gazza1 wrote: »

There was a prime example there in the last at chelmsford. TAFALOU. Ran first 3 races over 7,8 and 9f and made no impression. H'cap debut tonight and upped to 13f and a significant improvement to finish 3rd. Traded at 10s throughout the day and sp 6/1. Never looked at the card just turned on atr and watched it

That is Mark Prescotts bread and butter. Run a modestly talented middle distance horse over 7 and 8 furlongs a few times and then step them up and act like a genius. Its so obvious that they are generally priced accordingly though. Not that Prescott is a trailblazer in this particular part of the game but he does it more than most

For the lesser quality racecards I'd always have a glance at the "signposts" page on Racing Post and identify any trainer bringing one horse hundreds of miles for a race. Its surprising how often the run well.

Jon Stark

I don't read too much into it, I have my jockey/trainers that I like to follow so will throw them in a multiple if it's a good book.

Other than that recent form is where it ends for me, no room for sentiment. I followed Dodging Bullets for most of last season and fancied him strongly to see off SS on the latter's return, and so it came to be. I was told by a few before that race that a 50% SS would mop the floor with DB, can't say I didn't enjoy the aftermath of that race.

Of course though I ended up going off DB when it mattered most in the CC, as Sire De Grugy blew me away in his Chepstow performance. I learned after that to always stick with the gut! I could have put a saver on DB but I like picking one horse in a race and sticking to it.

diomed

More than two
First I bet in Group races only, so I put all the horse pedigrees into my pedigree database and look at them.
Second I figure out if the horse is a C.C., C.T, or T.T by looking at its parents and grandparents.
Third I look at the winners from the previous five or six years in my Group winners database and see what worked.
Fourth I check Turftrax to get a course going update.
Fifth I look at the form of each in detail, paying attention to previous runs on the going.
Sixth I read the Diomed (not me ) comments below the RP racecard.
Seventh I look at the odds on Betfair.

bladespin

Ground and weight are always worth a look IMO especially if there's been a bit of rain.

Jake Stiles

Trainer in form, number one for me, Fahey on a great run and it doesnt even matter the form figures. Simcock hot at the minute too.