Friday 14/8

sdoc13

20 15 Catterick. Imperator augustus 20/1. Winner of marks of 64 92 and 59 including C and D. Runs off 57 tomorrow. Dropped 5lbs for his last run which was on unsuitably soft ground. Decent claimer Jack Garrity on board and I think the 20/1 available looks big. 1 pt win

16 30 newbury. Put up Even Stevens a when a non runner a couple of weeks ago. Has been NR 4 times in a row. Kirby booked to ride tomorrow and I think he has a chance 20/1 looks decent value. 1 pt win

NeverWaining

Just a heads up that there is some 25's available about Hawkeyethenoo for Saturday. I'm sure one or two of you will be interested and the price probably won't last.

Chijj

Howdy lads,

I got word off a friend that Ikerrin Road in the 2:30 newcastle is set to run well today, when he told me last night it was 10/1 and I got it earlier in boyles at 9/2.

I've put my stake on already so thought I'd share considering I've got some good tips from here.

Here's hoping

NeverWaining

NeverWaining wrote: »

Just a heads up that there is some 25's available about Hawkeyethenoo for Saturday. I'm sure one or two of you will be interested and the price probably won't last.

I notice AidanKKK was on here this morning and had him advised minutes later with a hefty bet. I better put some thoughts on it. Ripon likely won't suit him. Ripon has one of the strongest front runner biases in the country and the race doesn't have a lot of pace to make it worse. He did run up with the pace over 5f at Ascot last time so he doesn't have to be too far back but he almost always is - he traveled at the rear of the pack in his previous 10 races (and most others). You can argue at a push that the softening ground will give him slightly more time. He also needs to be on the right side. Probability suggests he's not but it could go either way here.

He can run well and it's possible he can win. But he really needs to not be inconvenienced by the draw, not to get too far back, the pace not to be too slow, the gaps to appear when he wants to get through and enough time to pass the leaders. All of that is unlikely at Ripon. But 25's is a fair enough price.

He's weighted to win but 9 times out of 10 this race wouldn't suit him. If it does, he needs everything else to go right.

It'll be a shame if he drops too much more in the ratings as he belongs in those big Ascot Heritage handicaps.

evd

We literally have a Cliff horse today
3.00 @ Newcastle gone in to 9/2
Good luck

longshotvalue

NeverWaining wrote: »

I notice AidanKKK was on here this morning and had him advised minutes later with a hefty bet. I better put some thoughts on it. Ripon likely won't suit him. Ripon has one of the strongest front runner biases in the country and the race doesn't have a lot of pace to make it worse. He did run up with the pace over 5f at Ascot last time so he doesn't have to be too far back but he almost always is - he traveled at the rear of the pack in his previous 10 races (and most others). You can argue at a push that the softening ground will give him slightly more time. He also needs to be on the right side. Probability suggests he's not but it could go either way here.

He can run well and it's possible he can win. But he really needs to not be inconvenienced by the draw, not to get too far back, the pace not to be too slow, the gaps to appear when he wants to get through and enough time to pass the leaders. All of that is unlikely at Ripon. But 25's is a fair enough price.

He's weighted to win but 9 times out of 10 this race wouldn't suit him. If it does, he needs everything else to go right.

It'll be a shame if he drops too much more in the ratings as he belongs in those big Ascot Heritage handicaps.

I stuck him up on my own site earlier this morning. He is a bigger bet than normal from me simply because he is a 14-16/1 shot at 25/1 . That kind of margin on real odds of winning has to be taken. He still unfortunately only has about a 1 in 14 chance on winning. Your right about Ripon as luck plays a huge factor as it does in all these sprints (more so here). But backing 14/1 shots at 25/1 will pay dividends eventually in the long term..

Anyway fingers crossed. Ill definitely be looking for another value selection on the other side of the track in this race.

magicmoves

Here's my trixie for today

Sagaciously 4-1 Newbury 15:20
Indian Tinker 9-2 Newbury 16:30
Gaelic Wizard 7-2 Newcastle 17:10

Thedukester00

My Selections today

15:10 Nottingham
Effusive 3.25

15:35 Newcastle
Deemah 3.75

14:10 Nottingham
Short work 2.00

16:20 Nottingham
Gale Force 6.50

17:20 Nottingham
The Dukkerer 4.50

razorhead

Tidal Wave 5.30 Newmarket is well fancied today.
Also Bunyan is sending two over from the Curragh today to Newbury, Dazzle The Dual 2.50 and Madame Thunder 3.55.
Also Executor in the first at Newbury

NeverWaining

aidankkk wrote: »

I stuck him up on my own site earlier this morning. He is a bigger bet than normal from me simply because he is a 14-16/1 shot at 25/1 . That kind of margin on real odds of winning has to be taken. He still unfortunately only has about a 1 in 14 chance on winning. Your right about Ripon as luck plays a huge factor as it does in all these sprints (more so here). But backing 14/1 shots at 25/1 will pay dividends eventually in the long term..

Anyway fingers crossed. Ill definitely be looking for another value selection on the other side of the track in this race.

Yeah fingers crossed and I don't argue at all that the 25's is a bit too high. He was a fine bet in the Victoria Cup earlier this year when bottom weighted with a 7lb claimer up, the strongest headwind we'll see at Ascot all year, plenty of predictable pace and 7 furlongs on his favourite track. Even on days like those he needs the gaps. It was easy to see the hold up horses coming out on top back then, tomorrow it's not.
As I said one in ten times he'll get the race run to suit. Hopefully it's tomorrow as I do like the old boy. But I can see him in a keeping on 5th/6th.

BorneTobyWilde

Hard to find some decent price winners this time of year, most horses are up to speed and the market is mostly correct. Just looking through results and winners over 10-1 are few and far between this past 3 weeks. Yes there are some big price winners but to find them is not easy, typically the first 3 in market are winning most races . Change of tactic needed to find that consistency, the value within the first 5 in market.

diomed

Newbury 15:20: A Greater Force - 22s on Betfair

1m5f61y handicap on soft today.
He is by Montjeu, won a 14 runner maiden over 12f at Roscommon in 2014, sold by the boys, hasn't run since, good jockey.

diomed

Dibenoise, the dam of A Greater Force, has produced:
Corre Caminos rated 122 by Montjeu
Ecume Du Jour rated 85
Glamstar rated 80
Racinger rated 114
Recital rated 118 by Montjeu
Abys rated 101 by Montjeu
A Greater Force rated ???

Is he a dud? If he runs like his siblings he should be above average.
A negative is he was only sold to his new owners on 3rd August 2015!

magicmoves

diomed wrote: »

Dibenoise, the dam of A Greater Force, has produced:
Corre Caminos rated 122 by Montjeu
Ecume Du Jour rated 85
Glamstar rated 80
Racinger rated 114
Recital rated 118 by Montjeu
Abys rated 101 by Montjeu
A Greater Force rated ???

Is he a dud? If he runs like his siblings he should be above average.

Not sure if the soft ground will suit

diomed

He is by Montjeu who has 16% winners on heavy, his highest %

diomed

Price now 14. I have €20 at 23.
Edit: now 12s
First to hit 1000 in running :pac:

votecounts

Arthenus Nottingham 15:45 @5/4

Atlantis50

votecounts wrote: »

Arthenus Nottingham 15:45 @5/4

Have a small bet on him and also on the outsider Enigmatic Angel (currently 20/1).

confused smu

Kinematic 4.30 should win this, I'm worried about deeds not words. goodluck

hawkhead

Deeds not words (11/2) 4.30 Newbury. Won off a mark of 89 in July last year. Hasnt done a lot since but showed improvement last time out and runs off 73 today

PEACEBROTHER

Got word for Ocean glandore in the 1st in tramore
Connections expect him to win
Price but skimpy but worth a small bet

PEACEBROTHER

PEACEBROTHER wrote: »

Got word for Ocean glandore in the 1st in tramore
Connections expect him to win
Price but skimpy but worth a small bet

No good
Don't know how connections were so keen on him
Didn't seem to like the track at all

NeverWaining

NeverWaining wrote: »

Just a heads up that there is some 25's available about Hawkeyethenoo for Saturday. I'm sure one or two of you will be interested and the price probably won't last.

A N/R. Ground going to be pretty testing by the sounds of it. Nearly 50mm of rain since last night. And of course they were watering it during the week.

Hawkeye, Greeb and Fast Track out so far. Hope the race doesn't completely fall apart.

Andrew Mc Namara bows out of riding with a winner for Shark.

Nice end to his riding career.


Fair play to the Shark for finding one like that for him!

Johner

Delighted for him, that was brilliant!

BorneTobyWilde

It won.
Imperator Augustus !!

Great pick.

PEACEBROTHER

sdoc13 wrote: »

20 15 Catterick. Imperator augustus 20/1. Winner of marks of 64 92 and 59 including C and D. Runs off 57 tomorrow. Dropped 5lbs for his last run which was on unsuitably soft ground. Decent claimer Jack Garrity on board and I think the 20/1 available looks big. 1 pt win

16 30 newbury. Put up Even Stevens a when a non runner a couple of weeks ago. Has been NR 4 times in a row. Kirby booked to ride tomorrow and I think he has a chance 20/1 looks decent value. 1 pt win

He's back with a bang !!!

sdoc13

sdoc13 wrote: »

20 15 Catterick. Imperator augustus 20/1. Winner of marks of 64 92 and 59 including C and D. Runs off 57 tomorrow. Dropped 5lbs for his last run which was on unsuitably soft ground. Decent claimer Jack Garrity on board and I think the 20/1 available looks big. 1 pt win

16 30 newbury. Put up Even Stevens a when a non runner a couple of weeks ago. Has been NR 4 times in a row. Kirby booked to ride tomorrow and I think he has a chance 20/1 looks decent value. 1 pt win

BOOM. At last. Even Stevens will win soon too ran well today until fading.