Copa America 2015 - June 11th/July 4th 2015

inforfun

Post your previews, bets and what not, here.

Actually looking forward to this.

Mantis Toboggan

I'm getting on Brazil @ 3/1 to win outright.

According to Tim vickery alot of teams will use this to prepare for the upcoming world cup qualification and try to get a squad together which can compete. However he feels that Brazil will go all out to win this with they're strongest 11 as their manager is under pressure to get results and they will go all out to win this and restore some pride. Here's hoping anyway!

Mr. Green

Will Argentina win the Copa America? - Yes@ 3.180

Team Argentina is very strong.
I think that Argentina will reach the final.
Bet with the opportunity to hedge

ShamoBuc

Love this tournament, great to have it on the horizon!

Warper

With Brazil as well in this. They are unbeaten afaik since Dunga took over in his second term winning practically all their matches all be it in friendlies. The pressure will be nothing like the World Cup and this is a golden opportunity to regain some pride. The team is much more balanced now and thankfully he has given players chances to play. Good luck Fred. Brazil @ 100-30 for me

Also Neymar top scorer @ 13-2 is my other bet in this

The draw is important though - 3 groups of 4. If all goes to plan and Argentina and Brazil win Groups B and C respectively they will clash in the semi's. Brazil will play Uruguay in the 1/4's. Funnily enough if Brazil finish as runners up they have a much easier path.

Mr. Green

Warper wrote: »

Also Neymar top scorer @ 13-2 is my other bet in this

The problem is that in the group of Brazil, all teams will play a defensive model. Colombia is a very organized team. Peru with a new coach - only defense. Venezuela have no chances in attack. And Venezuela will play for 0-0 parked the bus.

The paradox of this group in Colombia very much wants to take revenge on Brazil for the world Cup.
But second place Colombia to reach the final.

mailburner

Mr. Green wrote: »

Football. The America's Cup. Chile. The winner of group C.

Brazil @ 1.65
Columbia@ 2.95


Interesting bet

brazil colombia was the worst match for me in the wc...just couldnt see past colombia there, that brazil team were there for the taking

gonna give them another chance to make amends by taking that at 2/1

DiarmAFC

I know all the matches will be televised on Setanta Sports, but does anyone have an idea of what times the matches would be played at? (Irish Time)

Austria!

Is there a qualification process for this tournament? I was trying to find teams recent competitive results to help me bet.

mailburner wrote: »

brazil colombia was the worst match for me in the wc...just couldnt see past colombia there, that brazil team were there for the taking

gonna give them another chance to make amends by taking that at 2/1

Think it's fair to say that this is a different Brazil. Fred was terrible last world cup, Luis Gustavo is not a top top player. Defensively they're better. A dunga team wouldn't lose 7-1.

PopePalpatine

There's no qualification for this, it's the 10 CONMEBAL members plus two invited teams.

inforfun

DiarmAFC wrote: »

I know all the matches will be televised on Setanta Sports, but does anyone have an idea of what times the matches would be played at? (Irish Time)

Edited first post and added schedule for you.

mailburner

Austria! wrote: »

Think it's fair to say that this is a different Brazil. Fred was terrible last world cup, Luis Gustavo is not a top top player. Defensively they're better. A dunga team wouldn't lose 7-1.

that is true
there should be very little between the sides and maybe 2s is a bit of value compared to 1.65
of course I could be miles out again

Mr. Green

Trimm Trabb

PP are doing bet €20 on a top goalscorer and get €5 free bet every time he scores.

inforfun

Trimm Trabb wrote: »

PP are doing bet €20 on a top goalscorer and get €5 free bet every time he scores.

Might go for a Chilean player as their group have Bolivia and Mexico who will be focussing on the Gold Cup and are not full strength for this one.
Not too sure about Mexico being weak enough to concede a lot but Bolivia got their arses handed to them by Di maria (2x) and Aguero (3x) last night with 2 penalties (DM and Agu one each).

On club level Vargas isnt really doing it but in the national team he is scoring often enough. But it is so hard to look past Alexis Sanchez and Vidal will most likely be on penalties.

But then again, looking back till 1999 top scorer never came from a country that had Bolivia i nthe group. Venezuela were the whipping boys in those days

yabadabado

Trimm Trabb wrote: »

PP are doing bet €20 on a top goalscorer and get €5 free bet every time he scores.

Have you got a link to this?Dont see it on the site.

Trimm Trabb

yabadabado wrote: »

Have you got a link to this?Dont see it on the site.

I got an email:


Goooooooooooooool!
Staying up into the early hours watching tanned men scoring may normally raise a few eyebrows... not when it's the Copa America! And the more they score the more free bets Paddy gives out!

Bet €/£20 on the Copa America top goalscorer and get a €/£5 free bet every time he scores!

What's more, Paddy is live streaming all matches including the final on desktop.

Paul Aaron x

Jackson Martinez top scorer 22/1 .. not bad odds.

ionadnapokot

Will he start tho? Falcao ahead of him and Bacca? Bacca at 18s might be a better shout.
Disclaimer: I dont know what formation they will play!

ionadnapokot

Im going with Sanchez at 12s.... Host country. Weak group. Good draw for the group winner. Guaranteed starter. Dont usually play with a recognised striker (no.9)
fyi Vidal at 50s!!!

retalivity

From the other thread....

maximoose wrote: »

Have been staying away from anything over a treble lately, but looking at the Copa Fixtures this weekend...

Mexico v Bolivia
Uruguay v Jamaica
Chile v Ecuador
Colombia v Venezuela
Brazil v Peru
Argentina v Paraguay

I'm quite tempted for a small stake on 6 home wins @ 5.13

Anyone I should be wary of?

5 home wins and Bolivia DC is 10.73
5 Home DC and Bolivia DC is 3.86

Might go small on the former and med/large on the latter...

TheHannibal

I think Jamaica could be a bet not to finish last. I think they'll beat Paraguay. Best Jamaice side I have seen. Lewis Grabban coming in, is a bonus too

Austria!

I saw them lose 8-0 to france before the world cup. I don't know if it was a weak team, but they were very bad.

yabadabado

anyone see a decent preview of the tournament?

Austria!

http://welovebetting.co.uk/category/football/international-football-tips/copa-america/

yabadabado

Austria! wrote: »

http://welovebetting.co.uk/category/football/international-football-tips/copa-america/

Cheers man.

DiarmAFC

Uruguay - Jamaica

Jamaica won last time these two met in 2004 winning 2-0
Luis Suarez will not make an appearance in this game due to ban
Bundled with Jamaica's high confidence due to having won there last five internationals

Jamaica +3 @ 1.40

TheDoc

Aguero at 9.00 too good for me to say no. I think hes an incredible striker, and after another 20+ goal season for City will no doubt start up front for Argentina throughout.

Feel they will most likely win the tournament, with Aguero finishing top goalscorer

Warper

TheDoc wrote: »

Aguero at 9.00 too good for me to say no. I think hes an incredible striker, and after another 20+ goal season for City will no doubt start up front for Argentina throughout.

Feel they will most likely win the tournament, with Aguero finishing top goalscorer

He was useless at the World Cup with Higuain playing up top and him and Messi on the wings. Now that Tevez is back in the fold best to see what formation they will be using but i agree if Aguero starts up top he will score

djhaxman

Some of ye might find this worth a read. Sky bet have some different markets to choose from.

http://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/article/2/9874767/the-sky-bet-verdict-on-the-copa-america

Shanotheslayer

''There’s some really interesting match-ups there: Neymar v Messi, Aguero v Sanchez. However my favourite bet from that market is Enner Valencia to be top Premier League score at 12/1.''

12/1 seems really poor considering he's up against Aguero and Sanchez no?

Shanotheslayer

Skybet giving 2/1 on Firminho Top Goalscorer for team.
Ladbrokes is 9/1 ......

yabadabado

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

''There’s some really interesting match-ups there: Neymar v Messi, Aguero v Sanchez. However my favourite bet from that market is Enner Valencia to be top Premier League score at 12/1.''

12/1 seems really poor considering he's up against Aguero and Sanchez no?

It does seem poor.I would expect both lads to at least make the semi final and both their teams should be scoring a lot more than Equador.
I'm backing Sanchez Top GS at 12s.

Shanotheslayer

Ok perhaps my maths is wrong but bare with me :

3 Brazil Goalscorers:

Neymar 5/6
Firminho 9/1
Coutinho 14/1

70.76 stake on Neymar returns 140.43
14.04 stake on Firminho returns 140.40
9.36 stake on Coutinho returns 140.40

Total Stake: 100. Potential Returns: 140

Now if dead heat applies it gets pretty messy.

If all 3 tie:

43.24(Neymar) 46.80(Firminho) 46.80(Coutinho) = 136.84

If Neymar/Firminho tie

64.86(Neymar) + 70.2(Firminho) = 135.06

Seems correct so far yes?

So really the only way it loses is :

A)1 Player I didn't choose gets top goalscorer
B)1 Player gets Dead Heat with another play I didn't choose.

Rasputin11

What's the Copa like for cards? The World Cup, Euro's and even the African Nations Cup would have strongly rewarded under cards backers. I presume the refs are being instructed to go easy on cards by the authorities, to avoid the negative publicity that goes with a game full of yellows and possibly red cards. It's all about appeasing the sponsors as even Blatter himself has discovered.

inforfun

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Skybet giving 2/1 on Firminho Top Goalscorer for team.
Ladbrokes is 9/1 ......

Got to be carefull with that.
9/1 might be to be Brasil's top scorer and that 2/1 for Hoffenheim's top scorer (assuming Hoffenheim has more than 1 player in the Copa)?

I remember from the WC that bet365 had bets like that

Easiest example would be: Barca's top scorer at the Copa where you have the choice of Neymar, Messi and if he hadnt been biting, Suarez.

Shanotheslayer

inforfun wrote: »

Got to be carefull with that.
9/1 might be to be Brasil's top scorer and that 2/1 for Hoffenheim's top scorer (assuming Hoffenheim has more than 1 player in the Copa)?

I remember from the WC that bet365 had bets like that

Easiest example would be: Barca's top scorer at the Copa where you have the choice of Neymar, Messi and if he hadnt been biting, Suarez.

It's under that heading:

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/copa-america/brazil-copa-america-specials/top-goalscorer

Checked on Skybet It says Brazil anyway as does Ladbrokes.

okidoki987

Racing Post tomorrow (Thursday) has a Copa America pull out.

okidoki987

Betfair doing Back an Outright Top goalscorer for €20 and get €5 (Free Bet) each time they score.

okidoki987

The last 4 top Tournament goalscorers have scored 5,6,7 and 6 goals so it's not going to be massive number of free bets.

okidoki987

70.76 stake on Neymar returns 140.43
14.04 stake on Firminho returns 140.40
9.36 stake on Coutinho returns 140.40

Total Stake: 100. Potential Returns: 140

1st line should read 76.6 stake on Neymar...
That will effect the other numbers.
You're basically backing Neymar, Firminho and Coutinho coupled to be 1st Top Brazil goalscorers at 2/5?

okidoki987

Skybet giving 2/1 on Firminho Top Goalscorer for team.
Ladbrokes is 9/1 ......

BetVictor are 8's so Skybet look a bit low on that one :rolleyes:.

djhaxman

okidoki987 wrote: »

BetVictor are 8's so Skybet look a bit low on that one :rolleyes:.

I thought it was a typo and went onto the site and he's 5/2. Neymar the favourite at 4/7.

I wouldn't give Sky a cent of my money anyway but thought people might be interested in a few of the more uncommon markets they have.

okidoki987

They might have a case if they were stand out Neymar but they're not even top price at 4/7 and it wouldn't be the 1st time Sky Bet have done that!

I'm sure they do "uncommon markets" (as others do) for a reason and I would guess it's because you can't compare or arb the prices.

okidoki987

Brazil have a very tough path to the final if they win their group.
They would play either Argentina or Uruguay in the Q/Final then probably either Argentina or Uruguay in the Semis.

Mexico at 25/1 could be worth an e/w bet, they would probably play Chile in the Semis and they would be underdogs especially as Chile are home but might be worth a flutter.

seanhynes

Just go on oddschecker sign up to whoever is best odds ,don't back with any1 mugging you off when there's 4-5 times odds elsewhere

PopePalpatine

I think you missed inforfun and Mr. Green mentioning that Mexico aren't really concentrating on the Copa America.

okidoki987

Yeah saw them all right but for Mexico to reach the Semis shouldn't take a lot of
effort from them.
A 25/1 e/w shot in the Semis would be laying time and might be an interesting bet. Won't go mad but just think 25/1 e/w on them would be more interesting then Chile at 4's.
The other half of the draw looks a lot tougher with Argentina, Brazil & Uruguay in there.

yabadabado

okidoki987 wrote: »

Yeah saw them all right but for Mexico to reach the Semis shouldn't take a lot of
effort from them.
A 25/1 e/w shot in the Semis would be laying time and might be an interesting bet. Won't go mad but just think 25/1 e/w on them would be more interesting then Chile at 4's.
The other half of the draw looks a lot tougher with Argentina, Brazil & Uruguay in there.

If Mexico come second in their group they are going to be playing Brazil or Columbia (most likely) in the QF.With the young experimental team the Mexican's are fielding I wouldn't be too confident of them beating either side.

okidoki987

Q/Finals

Winner Group A plays 3rd place Group B/C
&
R/U Group A plays 2nd Group C

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Copa_Am%C3%A9rica

So I was thinking if Mexico finish runners up, they would then play probably Colombia, if they win the Group they would probably play Paraguay/Peru.
Might be wrong but I think with the 3 main teams in the other half of the draw, they could be value at 25's.

yabadabado

I can't see Mexico topping their group. Its an experimental squad,clubs don't have to release Mexican players for Copa and they are focussed on Gold Cup which is there priority.
Copa does throw up some odd results but I can't see any other outcome in Group A than Chile topping it.