Will the New Irish swing a No vote on Friday?

Black Menorca

There are many thousands of Nigerian Evangelicals, combined with devout Catholic Eastern Europeans and Filipinos who will most likely vote No.

Interesting reading.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/17/new-irish-christians-mobilise-to-vote-no-to-gay-marriage

johnnyskeleton

Mod:Some more input from the OP please. Your own opinion, for example.

Also, the fact that a respected and venerable publication such as the Manchester Guardian chooses to mash all that into one article doesnt mean its a free for all to comment on race, ethnicity, religion or sexual orientation.

Ozymandius2011

On politics.ie, gerhard denghler and westsawake have said from their canvassing that the Muslims in Ballyhaunis, Co.Mayo are strongly on the no side. George Hook said in a debate between a yes and no Pole a few days ago on Newstalk that he thinks maybe around 5000 Poles have Irish citizenship.

Bearing in mind Divorce only passed by 10000 votes they could be crucial.

errlloyd

Hardly any immigrants can vote in referenda. My mum emigrated here 45 years ago from Scotland, and she's not an Irish citizen.

Minderbinder

errlloyd wrote: »

Hardly any immigrants can vote in referenda. My mum emigrated here 45 years ago from Scotland, and she's not an Irish citizen.

hardly any immigrants can vote because your mum can't? i'm quite certain if your mum really wanted to vote, she could.

ArseBurger

errlloyd wrote: »

Hardly any immigrants can vote in referenda. My mum emigrated here 45 years ago from Scotland, and she's not an Irish citizen.

All the ones that are Irish citizens can if they are registered to vote and live in Ireland.

And the average conversion rate is 5.5 per 1,000 people in the population of Ireland per year. And about 12% of the population of Ireland at the moment was born outside of Ireland.

Personally, I think this is a good thing.

Ozymandius2011

ArseBurger wrote: »

All the ones that are Irish citizens can if they are registered to vote and live in Ireland.

And the average conversion rate is 5.5 per 1,000 people in the population of Ireland per year. And about 12% of the population of Ireland at the moment was born outside of Ireland.

Personally, I think this is a good thing.

Even if it stops progressive reforms in other areas like Marriage Equality?

errlloyd

Minderbinder wrote: »

hardly any immigrants can vote because your mum can't? i'm quite certain if your mum really wanted to vote, she could.

Yeah, if she was willing to revoke her British citizenship and surrender her passport, it'd be easy for her to do that. Being married to an Irish man and all that. But it's pretty difficult for many of the ethnicities mentioned here. I have a Nigerian friend who came over aged 4 and only got her passport and citizenship aged 22.

Amidoman

What is so progressive in it? I think differently and I'm sick of the reasons brought by both sides. Equality? In what way? I know it is about them gay and lesbian couples who want to be called "married" and have the same rights as married people. Why.not change the civil partner law then? I think this is going too far. Anyway - I think too many young people will vote on for the "equality" so the yes side will win and changes will happen. Poles and others won't change that a bit.

ArseBurger

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Even if it stops progressive reforms in other areas like Marriage Equality?

I thought the vote was next Friday.

ArseBurger

errlloyd wrote: »

Yeah, if she was willing to revoke her British citizenship and surrender her passport, it'd be easy for her to do that.

Why would she need to do that?

Both Irish and British citizens can hold multiple citizenships and nationalities.

uck51js9zml2yt

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Even if it stops progressive reforms in other areas like Marriage Equality?

Not everyone thinks its progressive.

errlloyd

ArseBurger wrote: »

Why would she need to do that?

Both Irish and British citizens can hold multiple citizenships and nationalities.

Yeah I'm definitely not sure, and I know a bunch of laws changed on this in the last 10 years. But she was actually on the register to vote in presidential and referendum elections until about 3 years ago, when she got a letter saying she no longer could.

It's not the point anyway, even if it would be easy for my parent, anyone who has been here less than 8 years and even many who have been here longer would really struggle.

meglome

Solomon Whispering Beginner wrote: »

Not everyone thinks its progressive.

No they don't unfortunately, despite overwhelming evidence that it is progressive. Then people can believe all sorts of crazy nonsense if they wish.

I doubt the New Irish will make a massive difference if the Yes people actually get out and vote. If...

Greaney

I don't think so OP. I've been looking at the Statistics regarding faith etc, in Ireland and the figures in the Polls are similar to Church attendance. Catholic Church attendance is about 30% and since the numbers of priests & nuns who've come out and are voting yes may reflect the Catholic vote as less than 30% say. The numbers for other Christian denominations, other faiths and non-believers (yes folks, some folk who are voting 'no' are not religious:eek:) may bring that vote up to 35%.

That's my guess anyway. If the 'no' is 40% I'd be surprised and it would highlight how our politicians (barr 6 of them) have really let their constituents down.

Black Menorca

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Even if it stops progressive reforms in other areas like Marriage Equality?

Would you only give the vote to an emigrant who promised to vote Yes?

exgp

ArseBurger wrote: »

Why would she need to do that?

Both Irish and British citizens can hold multiple citizenships and nationalities.

No they can't.

Agent J

exgp wrote: »

No they can't.

Yes they can.

https://www.gov.uk/dual-citizenship

http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/moving_country/irish_citizenship/your_right_to_irish_citizenship.html

Untense

Amidoman wrote: »

What is so progressive in it?

Progressive
adjective
1.
favoring or advocating progress, change, improvement, or reform, as opposed to wishing to maintain things as they are, especially in political matters:

2.
making progress toward better conditions; employing or advocating more enlightened or liberal ideas, new or experimental methods, etc.:
a progressive community.

Amidoman wrote: »

Equality? In what way?
I know it is about them gay and lesbian couples who want to be called "married" and have the same rights as married people. Why.not change the civil partner law then?

Equality in the way you just alluded to yourself.

There are 160 statutory differences between civil partnership and marriage. Take that in for a second...

And yes, gay people want to be able to have legally recognised unions and have the same rights as "married people", i.e. they want to be married people too. Calling it something else other than marriage is discrimination based on sexual orientation and that is by definition, not equal.

I think this is going too far.

How is it going too far? What do you see as the consequence of marriage equality?

ArseBurger

errlloyd wrote: »

It's not the point anyway, even if it would be easy for my parent, anyone who has been here less than 8 years and even many who have been here longer would really struggle.

This doesn't make any sense. The minimum time you need to become a citizen in Ireland is five years. Once you are a citizen you can vote once you are resident and have registered. Residency requires living in the State. Registration is filling out a form.

I struggle to see how this is a struggle.

munchkin_utd

ArseBurger wrote: »

This doesn't make any sense. The minimum time you need to become a citizen in Ireland is five years. Once you are a citizen you can vote once you are resident and have registered. Residency requires living in the State. Registration is filling out a form.

I struggle to see how this is a struggle.

Irish Naturalisation is easy peasy, and quick, compared to other countries.

Also, back on topic. The most of immigrants in Ireland are british, so have no need to ever bother with naturalising, so they dont. And they cant vote in the Referendum.
The next largest group is the eastern europe EU citizens, but again, no reason to become irish. They can live in Ireland, and with an EU passport they can travel the world. And they cant vote in the Referendum.
Its the africans/ Chinese etc who have a non eu passport, and even need a visa to visit the UK (even northern ireland, obviously, but often forgotten) who go for irish citizenship. And once they naturalise they can vote.

Still, they only amount to about 10,000 new citizens a year so out of an electorate of 3,191,157 (2011 presidental election) - its not going to be a significant factor.

Ozymandius2011

Black Menorca wrote: »

Would you only give the vote to an emigrant who promised to vote Yes?

Well I wouldnt give it to people who want to introduce Sharia and reverse the liberal reforms since 1992.

roverrules

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Well I wouldnt give it to people who want to introduce Sharia and reverse the liberal reforms since 1992.

Jeez you can't pick and choose whom you'd like to offer citizenship to based on race, religion, gender,sexual orientation or what they would likely vote!

Bob24

Black Menorca wrote: »

There are many thousands of Nigerian Evangelicals, combined with devout Catholic Eastern Europeans and Filipinos who will most likely vote No.

Interesting reading.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/17/new-irish-christians-mobilise-to-vote-no-to-gay-marriage

I would say:
- Almost unanimous no vote for African Muslims (but low turnout)
- Strong majority no vote for African Catholics (but low turnout)
- Strong majority no vote for Asian Muslims (but low turnout)
- Majority no vote for Indians (but low to average turnout)
- Chinese and most other Asians couldn't care less and won't vote

There are other kind of "new Irish" but based on the attendees I could see at citizenship ceremonies I think I have covered the vast majority.

Faith+1

errlloyd wrote: »

Hardly any immigrants can vote in referenda. My mum emigrated here 45 years ago from Scotland, and she's not an Irish citizen.

Im 30 and would consider your mother more Irish than me. Crazy that she's not allowed to vote.

Bob24

Faith+1 wrote: »

Im 30 and would consider your mother more Irish than me. Crazy that she's not allowed to vote.

Not crazy at all - it is her personal choice not to be an Irish citizen. If she feels Irish and wants to influence Irish society she can apply for naturalisation. The process is very easy for citizens of other EU countries, and Ireland is open minded allowing for multiple citizenships.
(on a side note, I shall say in my opinion the process is too lenient with not a single interview with the applicant or any evaluation of integration level and knowledge of Ireland's institutions/society/history)

I came from another EU country 10 years ago and will vote.

beyondbelief67

I moved here in 1996 from england, my ex was English too, yet I was able to vote and encouraged to vote since then.
I haven't changed citizenship or anything like that nor was asked if I had, and it costs way more than I could afford to do that ! Sorry for being off topic just wanted to say it can be done and is easy to do to vote without being an Irish citizen.

Bob24

beyondbelief67 wrote: »

I moved here in 1996 from england, my ex was English too, yet I was able to vote and encouraged to vote since then.
I haven't changed citizenship or anything like that nor was asked if I had, and it costs way more than I could afford to do that ! Sorry for being off topic just wanted to say it can be done and is easy to do to vote without being an Irish citizen.

Not for referendums and presidential elections though. If you are voting for these someone made a mistake when they added you to the register.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Sheldons Brain

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Well I wouldnt give it to people who want to introduce Sharia and reverse the liberal reforms since 1992.

You have to laugh. The "progressive" PC crowd want more immigration, and want to devalue marriage which can only reduce the birth rate and consequently encourage more immigration, but they then they are not happy with the immigrants!

Perhaps this referendum will cause some of the new Irish to engage with the Irish constitution.

beyondbelief67

Bob24 wrote: »

Not for referendums and presidential elections though. If you are voting for these someone made a mistake when they added you to the register.

I have voted for those yes, and if it was in error then that mistake was made in quite a few places that I have lived over the years here !

Bob24

Sheldons Brain wrote: »

You have to laugh. The "progressive" PC crowd want more immigration, and want to devalue marriage which can only reduce the birth rate and consequently encourage more immigration, but they then they are not happy with the immigrants!

Perhaps this referendum will cause some of the new Irish to engage with the Irish constitution.

They are actually promoting immigration, just not liking how a majority of immigrants are voting when it comes to societal issues.

I believe this type contradiction between various things they are promoting is one of the reasons why the liberal left is imploding in many continental European countries (essentially when you are promoting a society where individual rights are paramount and people feel entitled to any of there wishes, you are breaking cohesion within society and encouraging citizens to oppose each other's views and become more selfish - which is generating more conflicts). But I think it will take another 10 or 20 years for this to become obvious in Ireland - the trend started in the late sixties in many European countries whereas it came here much later.

Unfortunately our societies are having a hard time to find a balance between retrograde conservatism and suicidal liberalism.

Bob24

beyondbelief67 wrote: »

I have voted for those yes, and if it was in error then that mistake was made in quite a few places that I have lived over the years here !

Definitely a mistake: http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/moving_country/moving_to_ireland/introduction_to_the_irish_system/right_to_vote.html#l862a3

The right to vote is as follows:

Irish citizens may vote at every election and referendum;
British citizens may vote at Dáil elections, European elections and local elections;
Other European Union (EU) citizens may vote at European and local elections*
Non-EU citizens may vote at local elections only.

But you wouldn't be the first one I am hearing of. He never actually voted in it until he became Irish, but a French friend did get registered for Dáil elections by mistake.

daheff

Amidoman wrote: »

I think differently and I'm sick of the reasons brought by both sides.

I agree

I dont think/believe we've been told the full or accurate ramifications of the a yes/no vote by the referendum commission (or yes/no side).

But seeing as we never are (by either side or the neutral commission) why should this referendum be any different?? :mad:

ArseBurger wrote: »

Residency requires living in the State. Registration is filling out a form.

I struggle to see how this is a struggle.

as mentioned by draiochtanois below its quite costly...and the form isnt just a case of whats your name.

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Sheldons Brain

Bob24 wrote: »

Unfortunately our societies are having a hard time to find a balance between retrograde conservatism and suicidal liberalism.

Well said, Ireland is a classic example. Balance seems an evil word.

Kev W

Sheldons Brain wrote: »

The "progressive" PC crowd want... to devalue marriage which can only reduce the birth rate and consequently encourage more immigration.

How so?

Unclebumble

The same for me.
I'm British, lived here 20+ years and have voted in the last Presidential Election and got card to vote tomorrow. Never signed anything to declare my citizenship - even used my UK passport last time as proof of ID!
Wonder how many of us who should not be voting are and will it change the outcome!

ArseBurger

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

That's a different issue. The bureaucratic mechanics of becoming a citizen are straightforward. That was my only point.

And, in the scheme of things, €1,125 is not a lot of money if you place a high value on being a citizen. Value being the relevant word here.

Ozymandius2011

The media are reporting yes badges everywhere in Dublin. That suggests more enthusiasm on our side at least there.

pmasterson95

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Well I wouldnt give it to people who want to introduce Sharia and reverse the liberal reforms since 1992.

This is the yes sides "equality" at its best. Everyone equal. Oh your voting no? How dare you vote your opinion is less important than mine. *one minute later* EQUALITY FOR ALL.

Hilarious.

Guy:Incognito

Sheldons Brain wrote: »

and want to devalue marriage which can only reduce the birth rate and consequently encourage more immigration, but they then they are not happy with the immigrants!
.

Do you think that if a gay couple are not allowed to get married they will split up, become straight and start having more kids



I find it rather ironic that people come here, are given rights as citizens and all that goes with it and will now use that right to deny others of theirs.

I am the child of an immigrant btw. My mother came here from Germany in the late 70's .

c montgomery

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Even if it stops progressive reforms in other areas like Marriage Equality?

Democracy, if you don't like it I hear cuba is nice this time of year

daheff

ArseBurger wrote: »

That's a different issue. The bureaucratic mechanics of becoming a citizen are straightforward. That was my only point.

And, in the scheme of things, €1,125 is not a lot of money if you place a high value on being a citizen. Value being the relevant word here.

€1 is a lot of money if you dont have it. A lot of immigrants wouldnt have over a grand to spend on an irish passport...i'd imagine for a lot of them food/housing is higher up their priorities list.

Bob24

daheff wrote: »

€1 is a lot of money if you dont have it. A lot of immigrants wouldnt have over a grand to spend on an irish passport...i'd imagine for a lot of them food/housing is higher up their priorities list.

1000 euros is very little money to have your Irish identity (if you feel you have one) recognised and additional rights for the rest of your life. Many people would spend close to that amount every year in cable TV subscription.

Even if you take aside the emotional and practical aspects - and just want to make it about money: non EU citizen residents are paying 300 euros per year in GNIB registration fees (unless they are a family member of an Irish/EU citizen). So as long as they are planning to stay a few more years for them getting citizenship is definitely value for money.

And a vast majority of EU citizens working here are getting paid OK, otherwise they wouldn't still be her after 5 years and would have either returned home or gone to another EU country.

Honestly, having done it myself - there is no excuse about the process (which is easier than in most other countries) and the cost is not crazy.

daheff

Bob24 wrote: »

1000 euros is very little money to have your Irish identity (if you feel you have one) recognised and additional rights for the rest of your life. Many people would spend close to that amount every year in cable TV subscription.

Even if you take aside the emotional and practical aspects - and just want to make it about money: non EU citizen residents are paying 300 euros per year in GNIB registration fees (unless they are a family member of an Irish/EU citizen). So as long as they are planning to stay a few more years for them getting citizenship is definitely value for money.

And a vast majority of EU citizens working here are getting paid OK, otherwise they wouldn't still be her after 5 years and would have either returned home or gone to another EU country.

Honestly, having done it myself - there is no excuse about the process (which is easier than in most other countries) and the cost is not crazy.

but you are judging everybody by your standards/means. what about all the asylum seekers who have no income? How do they save for the process?

What about those who are making minimum wage (vs dole of less than half of whats available in Ireland)?

To you the cost is not crazy...but not so for everybody.

Bob24

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Do you think that if a gay couple are not allowed to get married they will split up, become straight and start having more kids

Obviously this is not the case, but what is true is that people have been told so many times that marriage is not about kids that it will stay in their mind (especially for the younger ones, who would be having kids in the next 15 years).

Everybody can probably agree that to many heterosexual couples getting married and having kids have been two things which go hand in hand. I don't think it is completely silly to say the type of speech we have been hearing could partly change that and eventually affect birth rates (not crazily of course, but even a 0.1 point drop can change the demographics of the country). This is obvious in other countries which have had an ultra dominant liberal and individual centred ideologies before us, and it is not random that Ireland is one of the only countries in Europe with a birth rate high enough to naturally renew its population.

Now, whether it is a problem or not is for anyone to make up their own mind.

Bob24

daheff wrote: »

but you are judging everybody by your standards/means. what about all the asylum seekers who have no income? How do they save for the process?

What about those who are making minimum wage (vs dole of less than half of whats available in Ireland)?

To you the cost is not crazy...but not so for everybody.

Application is free of charge for refugees.

And as I said other non EU citizens would be paying 300 euros per year on GNIB registration fees - so even if they are on minimum wage it does pay off. Having a special interest in China I happen to have many friends who immigrated from there. Some of them are making less than minimum wage with not so great short contract through agencies - and to most of them getting citizenship when they can it is a no brainer (when they don't apply it is not because of money but because they don't want to give up their Chinese citizenship - as China does not allow dual citizenship).

donaghs

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Well I wouldnt give it to people who want to introduce Sharia and reverse the liberal reforms since 1992.

Some would call that "intolerance".

Interesting article.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/17/new-irish-christians-mobilise-to-vote-no-to-gay-marriage

I think this the culture war of the future in Ireland unfortunately. I've worked with people from Poland, China, Nigeria, Albania, South Africa and Pakistan to name a few, who have Irish citizenship, so it can't be too hard to attain it. Some of them mentioned voting in previous elections too.

I haven't seen this aspect of the debate mentioned at all in the media in Ireland. I have seen elderly people in Ireland who say they cant agree to go further than civil partnership being branded as homophobic nazis. But no mention of those who oppose the very notion of homosexuality, e.g. look at how homosexuality is accommodated in majority Muslim countries, or the popular move the bring in the death penalty for it in "Christian" Uganda (reduced later to life imprisonment).

The Dutch have started looking at this thorny issue already with their new citizenship test. As well as new citizens having to speak some Dutch, it also questions their attitudes to homosexuality, to ensure tolerant attitudes.
http://www.iamexpat.nl/read-and-discuss/expat-page/news/dutch-citizenship-exam-does-not-help-integration
Opinion is far from unanimous on whether this is the right approach.

And given the large salafist population in places like Rotterdam, a bit late.

haveringchick

exgp wrote: »

No they can't.

I have both British and Irish passports. So do 2 of my brothers and my mother.

hju6

Unclebumble wrote: »

The same for me.
I'm British, lived here 20+ years and have voted in the last Presidential Election and got card to vote tomorrow. Never signed anything to declare my citizenship - even used my UK passport last time as proof of ID!
Wonder how many of us who should not be voting are and will it change the outcome!

Same here, moved here in 2000 from England, received polling cards for everything.
Will be going to vote later, UK driving licence as ID.

joe_joe_jo

Bob24 wrote: »

- Majority no vote for Indians (but low to average turnout)

majority are going to vote this time in my understanding.
most of them are Catholics and there was active campaigning among them and most voting NO...