May 2015 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, an average of five selected stations, which has averaged 11.1 C for the 30-yr period 1981 to 2010.

2. Predict the highest daily maximum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

3. Predict the lowest daily minimum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

4. Predict the monthly precip as a percentage of normal (for 11 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

5. Predict the monthly sunshine as a percentage of normal (for 6 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

6. Bonus -- Predict the maximum daily rainfall at any reporting station in Ireland during May. Give the date and location for possible extra bonus points (eight points for the amount, one each for date and location but these double if you get both right). Example of a valid answer -- Ballyhaise 25.0 on 31st -- that was not meant to be a prediction.

Deadlines for entry ... you have until the end of the day on Friday 1st of May, to enter without penalty. The actual deadline is set at 0300h on Saturday, the 2nd of May. After that, it's five point penalties for each half-day late, 0300 to 1500 and 1500 to 0300h used to determine half days.

Enter in the thread, here's my go which you could use as a template and a set of values to be avoided.

M.T. Cranium ________ 10.4 __ 23.0 __ -2.5 __ 120 __ 090 ___ 35.5 (Claremorris, 23rd)

Schadenfreudia

10.6 __ 21.0 __ -3.5 __ 110 __ 095 ___ 25.5 (Valentia, 19th)

200motels

10.9____22.6____-2.3____121____90_____24.5 (Claremorris) 26th

Bsal

Bsal ___ 11.0 __ 22.9 __ -1.7 __ 105 __ 103 ___ 28.0 (Ballyhaise, 17th)

sunflower3

Sunflower3 ___ 10.5 __ 21.2 __ -1.9 __ 115 __ 98 ___ 26.0 (Valentia 20th)

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ________ 11.8 __ 23.6 __ -1.9 __ 97 __ 105 ___ 23.5 (Casement, 2nd)

dasa29

Dasa29 ________ 11.0 __ 22.0 __ -1.5 __ 110 __ 120 ___ 22.0 (Valentia, 5th)

mickger844posts

mickger844posts ________ 10.5 __ 22.0 __ -2.0 __ 75 __ 121 ___ 15.5 (Valentia, 21st)

pauldry

Pauldry ________ 10.4 __ 21.0 __ -1.8__ 96 __ 104___ 30 (Cork 2nd)

omicron

omicron ________ 11.5 __ 23.0 __ -1.0 __ 95 __ 110 ___ 28.0 (Valentia, 15th)

rameire

Rameire ________ 10.8 __ 22.8 __ -1.5 __ 107 __ 097 ___ 17.0 (Gurteen, 2nd)

mrskinner

MrSkinner________ 11.4 __ 23.1 __ 0.6 __ 103 __ 104 ___ 34.1 (Valentia, 2nd)

dacogawa

Dacogawa ________ 10.9 __ 23.6 __ -1.6 __ 105 __ 095 ___ 32.5 (Valentia, 10th)

Joe Public

11.9 __ 22.9 __ -2.9 __ 119 __ 109 ___ 29.9 (Casement, 5th)

Lumi

Lumi ________ 11.4 __ 22.8__ -1.9 __ 121 __ 089 ___ 28.5 (Sherkin Island, 17th)

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ________ 11.5 __ 21.5 __ -0.5 __ 130 __ 092 ___ 25.0 (Mace Head, 2nd)

Tae laidir

mrskinner wrote: »

MrSkinner________ 11.4 __ 23.1 __ 0.6 __ 103 __ 104 ___ 34.1 (Valentia, 2nd)

Was never sure whether it was Mr. Skinner or Mrs. Kinner.
Thanks for clarifying

mrskinner

You are welcome, Tae.

It's W. Seymour Skinner actually!

waterways

waterways ________ 11.4 __ 26.0 __ -1.9__ 100 __ 113 ___ 37 (Cork, 28)

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _______ 10.4 __ 22.5 __ -1.2__ 145 __ 85___ 40 (Shannon, 16)

lostinashford

11.4 __ 21.0 __ -0.7 __ 118 __ 099 ___ 32.5 (Valentia, 2nd)

John mac

john mac______12.0 __ 22.0 __ -1.5 __ 110 __ 104 ___ 18 (knock 18th)

kindredspirit

KS____________11.7___________24.0________________0.5_______________135_____________90____________30______________15th______________Claremorris

Rikand

Rikand ______ 11.0 ________ 25.0 ________ -1.0 ______ 110 _______ 110 _______ 25 ___ [phoenix park 25th]

Harps

Harps ___ 11.3 __ 23.9 __ -1.7 __ 110 __ 110 ___ 32.0 (Valentia, 17th)

M.T. Cranium

I am the grim reaper, storing your forecasts before you can edit in rainfall data from Saturday. And here they be:

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ max rain 24h,loc'n,date
_______________________________________________mm________________

john mac __________ 12.0 _ 22.0 _ -1.5 _ 110 _ 104 __ 18.0 Knock, 18th
JoePublic __________ 11.9 _ 22.9 _ -2.9 _ 119 _ 109 __ 29.9 Casement, 5th
DOCARCH _________ 11.8 _ 23.6 _ -1.9 _ 097 _ 105 __ 23.5 Casement, 2nd
kindredspirit _______ 11.7 _ 24.0 _ +0.5 _ 135 _ 090 __ 30.0 Claremorris, 15th
jd ____(-15)________11.7 _ 23.1 _ -2.1 _ 110 _ 100
omicron ___________ 11.5 _ 23.0 _ -1.0 _ 095 _ 110 __ 28.0 Valentia, 15th
Tae laidir __________ 11.5 _ 21.5 _ -0.5 _ 130 _ 092 __ 25.0 Mace Head, 2nd
waterways _________ 11.4 _ 26.0 _ -1.9 _ 100 _ 113 __ 37.0 Cork, 28th
MrSkinner _________ 11.4 _ 23.1 _ +0.6 _ 103 _ 104 __ 34.1 Valentia, 2nd
Lumi ______________11.4 _ 22.8 _ -1.9 _ 121 _ 089 __ 28.5 Sherkin Island, 17th
lostinashford _______ 11.4 _ 21.0 _ -0.7 _ 118 _ 099 __ 32.5 Valentia, 2nd
Harps ___(-5)_______11.3 _ 23.9 _ -1.7 _ 110 _ 110 __ 32.0 Valentia, 17th
Rikand ____________ 11.0 _ 25.0 _ -1.0 _ 110 _ 110 __ 25.0 Phoenix Park, 25th

Con Sensus ________ 11.2 _ 22.9 _ -1.7 _ 110 _ 102 __ 28.0 Valentia, 2nd

Bsal ______________ 11.0 _ 22.9 _ -1.7 _ 105 _ 103 __ 28.0 Ballyhaise, 17th
Dasa29 ____________11.0 _ 22.0 _ -1.5 _ 110 _ 120 __ 22.0 Valentia, 5th
Dacogawa _________ 10.9 _ 23.6 _ -1.6 _ 105 _ 095 __ 32.5 Valentia, 10th
200motels _________ 10.9 _ 22.6 _ -2.3 _ 121 _ 090 __ 24.5 Claremorris, 26th
Rameire ___________10.8 _ 22.8 _ -1.5 _ 107 _ 097 __ 17.0 Gurteen, 2nd
Schadenfreudia _____ 10.6 _ 21.0 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 095 __ 25.5 Valentia, 19th
mickger844posts ____ 10.5 _ 22.0 _ -2.0 _ 075 _ 121 __ 15.5 Valentia, 21st
Sunflower3 _________10.5 _ 21.2 _ -1.9 _ 115 _ 098 __ 26.0 Valentia, 20th
M.T. Cranium _______10.4 _ 23.0 _ -2.5 _ 120 _ 090 __ 35.5 Claremorris, 23rd
Jpmarn____________ 10.4 _ 22.5 _ -1.2 _ 145 _ 085 __ 40.0 Shannon, 16th
Pauldry ___________ 10.4 _ 21.0 _ -1.8 _ 096 _ 104 __ 30.0 Cork 2nd
______________________________________________________________

later entries will be edited in, please note that bonus answers that are later than this post will be subject to max of 7 pts if 2nd is selected, and date/loc'n will not score, but if not, just the standard late penalty will apply and the bonus will be scored equally to others.

Con Sensus is (edit) mean of 12th and 13th ranked value (median of 24) except for bonus which is 12th ranked (median of 23) with the most frequent location and date. The 23 votes for location of maximum rainfall so far are:

Valentia ___ 9
Claremorris _3
Casement __ 2
Cork ______ 2
Ballyhaise, Gurteen, Knock, Mace Head, Phoenix Park, Shannon, Sherkin Island __ 1 each

Distribution of dates is of course skewed towards 2nd by short term forecasts so this is the way it broke down:
1st __ --
2nd __ 6
5th __ 2
10th __ 1
15th __ 2
16th __ 1
17th __ 3
18th __ 1
19th __ 1
20th __ 1
21st __ 1
23rd __ 1
25th __ 1
26th __ 1
28th __ 1


Thanks for entering and good luck !

omicron

Cork Airport 38.5mm yesterday.

Tae laidir

Nice rebound, Pauldry .

jd

JD 11.7 __ 23.1 __ -2.1 __ 110__ 100 ___ ...

pauldry

Tae laidir wrote: »

Nice rebound, Pauldry .

Not safe yet as only yesterday malin head had 35mm

ALso thundery may ahead so my rainfall figures dead.

Id reckon rainfall closer to 150% likely

M.T. Cranium

Even that could prove to be conservative, I just checked the rainfall figures to date for the eleven sites used and already the average is about four times normal with another heavy rainfall expected in some parts tonight and tomorrow, and a downpour on the charts for Friday night into Saturday. There are further opportunities shown around the middle of the following week. If these maps are generally accurate then we're going to be locked into at least 180% of normal by the 15th even if later portions of May are dry. If they aren't, we could be over 200%. I can almost guarantee that we'll be scoring PRC by the minimum progression (which is 18,16,15, 14,13, 12,11,10,10,9,9 ... etc, so everyone will score something anyway).

The bonus points are also settled because the amount is already at the average of the two highest predictions. So it's 8 points in the bag for JPmarn, waterways and MTC, with 7 going to MrSkinner, lostinashford and Dacogawa. Groups of three from there down to one point for the lowest three. The date and location are not yet known for certain but if it were the 2nd then Pauldry doubles up to add four points to his six for amount. Nobody else can double up from the 2nd but several others have a point for either Cork or 2nd if these hold up. It will be interesting to see how the later predictions fare as this series of downpours probably can't be sustained indefinitely. That's because it isn't summer yet.

M.T. Cranium

After the first seven days ...

IMT _ 9.3 C

PRC _ 344% of normal

SUN _ 72% of normal

Probably no contenders for MAX or MIN, that I noticed anyway.

By the end of today, would expect that enough rain will have fallen to guarantee a normal amount for May and so we're now working on the amount above normal.

M.T. Cranium

Just for later reference, -0.8 C at Markree on 1st may hold up all month as MIN. Nothing so far likely to qualify as MAX.

pauldry

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Just for later reference, -0.8 C at Markree on 1st may hold up all month as MIN. Nothing so far likely to qualify as MAX.

BElmullet had 18c on may 13th MAX

Certainly in the next 7 days nothing near 20 degrees.

Maybe in last week if high shifts the polar cell over us

IF next week was january!

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks,

IMT on 9.6 (the second week at 9.9) running a bit below normal, this value likely to be preserved more or less well into the final stages -- will say 10.0 a reasonable estimate for end of month based on current guidance.

PRC continues to run very high, now 256% after the second week managed 167%, although Malin Head actually ran below normal (the wettest sites were Johnstown Castle and Cork).

SUN recovered some of its dignity and is now on 84% after a respectable 95% with the southwest a little above normal.

So far MAX appears to be 18.0 and MIN --0.8 C.

No change to the earlier status of the bonus question (Cork 2nd 38.5 mm).

pauldry

Last week of may will see 20 to 22c

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks, and with a slight amount of missing data to estimate, this is where I think things have settled:

IMT about 9.4

PRC about 200% of normal after a more average sort of week.

SUN has only edged up slightly to 85% (the week at 87%).

Tae laidir

Phoenix Park 20.1 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks, with finishing values estimated in brackets:

IMT on 10.1 (10.0)

PRC now 166% of normal after a relatively dry week of 54%, finish (170%).

SUN has lost ground to 80% thanks to a dull week especially at Belmullet (77%).


Could post a provisional scoring table as almost everything requires some application of the mercy rule, or is settled as in the bonus (amount on Saturday could conceivably change things for date but not for order of forecasted amounts).

Schadenfreudia

I wish to apply for a large dollop of the mercy rule

M.T. Cranium

Provisional Scoring for May 2015

This table will be either edited or reposted when the numbers are official. The values used are shown.

FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ max rain 24h,loc'n,date
_______________________________________________mm________________

___ Estimated values __ 10.0_20.1_-0.8_170_077___38.5 Cork 2nd

Jpmarn____________ 21 _ 12* _ 16 _ 15* _ 09 __ 08 + 0 ______ 81
lostinashford _______ 11 _ 17* _ 19 _ 11* _ 06 __ 07 + 1 ______ 72
Tae laidir __________ 10 _ 14* _ 17 _ 13* _ 08 __ 04 + 1 ______ 67
Pauldry ___________ 21 _ 17* _ 10 _ 02* _ 05 __ 06 +2+2 ____ 65
Sunflower3 _________20 _ 15* _ 09 _ 10* _ 06 __ 04 + 0 ______ 64
M.T. Cranium _______21 _ 09* _ 03 _ 12* _ 08 __ 08 + 0 ______ 61
Rameire ___________ 17 _ 11* _ 13 _ 09*_ 07 __ 02 + 1 ______ 60
Dacogawa _________ 16 _ 07* _ 12 _ 08* _ 07 __ 07 + 0 ______ 57
200motels _________ 16 _ 12* _ 05 _ 12* _ 08 __ 04 + 0 ______ 57
Schadenfreudia _____ 19 _ 17* _ 00 _ 10* _ 07 __ 04 + 0 ______ 57

Con Sensus ________ 13 _ 11* _ 11 _ 10* _ 06 __ 05 + 1 ______ 57

Lumi ______________11 _ 11* _ 09 _ 12* _ 08 __ 05 + 0 ______ 56
Dasa29 ____________15 _ 13* _ 13 _ 10* _ 02 __ 03 + 0 ______ 56
Bsal ______________ 15 _ 11* _ 11 _ 08* _ 05 __ 05 + 0 ______ 55
Rikand ____________ 15 _ 02* _ 18 _ 10* _ 04 __ 04 + 0 ______ 53
omicron ___________ 10 _ 09* _ 18 _ 02* _ 04 __ 05 + 0 ______ 48
john mac __________ 05 _ 13* _ 13 _ 10* _ 05 __ 02 + 0 ______ 48
kindredspirit ________08 _ 03* _ 07 _ 14* _ 08 __ 06 + 0 ______ 46
MrSkinner _________ 11 _ 09* _ 06 _ 06* _ 05 __ 07 + 1 ______ 45
Harps ___(-5)_______12 _ 06* _ 11 _ 10* _ 04 __ 06 + 0 __ 49-5=44
mickger844posts ____ 20 _ 13* _ 08 __ 00 _ 02 __ 01 + 0 ______ 44
waterways _________ 11 _ 01* _ 09 _ 05*_ 03 __ 08 + 1 ______ 38
JoePublic __________ 06 _ 11* _ 00 _ 11* _ 04 __ 05 + 0 ______ 37
DOCARCH _________ 07 _ 07* _ 09 _ 03* _ 05 __ 03 + 1 ______ 35
jd ____(-10)________08 _ 08* _ 07 _ 10* _ 06 __ not in __ 39-10=29



______________________________________________________________

* minimum progression scores for MAX and PRC, also SUN was scored from 80% which gives each score a boost of one point. Since jd had both a late penalty and sat out the bonus (probably thinking it had already been settled) I changed his late penalty to 10 from 15 as otherwise it was more like 20-25.

These scores can only change slightly now, if a heavier rainfall occurs over the last three days then the date bonuses will be removed and waterways with the latest of our forecast dates will get that, and if Cork does not retain its dubious distinction then location bonus could change. Pauldry would potentially then lose his super-bonus for having the right location and date.

Will confirm these scores on 2nd or 3rd of June, I hope, then post the annual as well as spring seasonal rankings.

dasa29

HI MT that is a nice scoreboard but I think you are missing one entry.

Schadenfreudia

dasa29 wrote: »

HI MT that is a nice scoreboard but I think you are missing one entry.

Dasa29?? :rolleyes:

Tae laidir

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

Dasa29?? :rolleyes:

No - Con Sensus.
I checked the first four entries and couldn't find him.

M.T. Cranium

Sorry about that, I score them all then put them in order, must have somehow erased the line in that part of the operation. Would have noticed when I did the annual scoring probably. Anyway, dasa29 had 56 and I have added that to the table.

Umm also, in case anyone notices, I made an error in post 31 talking about the minimum progression being likely for PRC -- this category is only worth 15 so the list I provided is for MAX (or MIN) not what I ended up giving out for PRC. The MAX was a bit tricky in that three were closest so I gave them the mean of the first and second values used, then went on from there. So that's why you may note that there are three scores of 17 followed by lower scores in MAX. I was pretty generous with both MAX and PRC, the raw scores would have been fairly low for MAX and for almost everyone zero for PRC.

M.T. Cranium

IMT actual value is 9.9 C -- reduce all scores by one. If that's the only edit needed, the table will stand and I will just take off the point in the annual table.

I could work out the actual precip but might as well save the bother and wait for the Monthly Summary since I am sure that the scoring there won't change.

Looks as though the 30th failed to overcome the 2nd with Finner coming the closest on the 30th but less than either the 2nd or 3rd produced. So the bonus will stand, if the MS has some other amount from a station we don't normally see in the tables, I will be ignoring that.

rameire

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057438069

So people don't forget
Get your June predictions in.
Link above.

M.T. Cranium

Final scoring table for May 2015


FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ max rain 24h,loc'n,date
_______________________________________________mm________________

__ Confirmed values __9.9_20.1_-0.8_174_082___38.5 Cork 2nd

Jpmarn____________ 20 _ 12* _ 16 _ 15* _ 09 __ 08 + 0 ______ 80
lostinashford _______ 10 _ 17* _ 19 _ 11* _ 07 __ 07 + 1 ______ 72
Tae laidir __________ 09 _ 14* _ 17 _ 13* _ 08 __ 04 + 1 ______ 66
Pauldry ____________20 _ 17* _ 10 _ 02* _ 06 __ 06 +2+2 ____ 65
Sunflower3 _________19 _ 15* _ 09 _ 10* _ 07 __ 04 + 0 ______ 64
M.T. Cranium _______20 _ 09* _ 03 _ 12* _ 08 __ 08 + 0 ______ 60
Rameire ___________ 16 _ 11* _ 13 _ 09*_ 07 __ 02 + 1 ______ 59
Dacogawa _________ 15 _ 07* _ 12 _ 08* _ 07 __ 07 + 0 ______ 56
200motels _________ 15 _ 12* _ 05 _ 12* _ 08 __ 04 + 0 ______ 56
Schadenfreudia _____ 18 _ 17* _ 00 _ 10* _ 07 __ 04 + 0 ______ 56
Lumi ______________10 _ 11* _ 09 _ 12* _ 09 __ 05 + 0 ______ 56

Con Sensus ________ 12 _ 11* _ 11 _ 10* _ 06 __ 05 + 1 ______ 56

Dasa29 ____________14 _ 13* _ 13 _ 10* _ 02 __ 03 + 0 ______ 55
Bsal ______________ 14 _ 11* _ 11 _ 08* _ 06 __ 05 + 0 ______ 55
Rikand ____________ 14 _ 02* _ 18 _ 10* _ 04 __ 04 + 0 ______ 52
john mac __________ 04 _ 13* _ 13 _ 10* _ 06 __ 02 + 0 ______ 48
omicron ___________ 09 _ 09* _ 18 _ 02* _ 04 __ 05 + 0 ______ 47
kindredspirit ________07 _ 03* _ 07 _ 14* _ 08 __ 06 + 0 ______ 45
MrSkinner _________ 10 _ 09* _ 06 _ 06* _ 06 __ 07 + 1 ______ 45
Harps ___(-5)_______11 _ 06* _ 11 _ 10* _ 04 __ 06 + 0 __ 48-5=43
mickger844posts ____ 19 _ 13* _ 08 __ 00 _ 02 __ 01 + 0 ______ 43
waterways _________ 10 _ 01* _ 09 _ 05*_ 04 __ 08 + 1 ______ 38
JoePublic __________ 05 _ 11* _ 00 _ 11* _ 05 __ 05 + 0 ______ 37
DOCARCH _________ 06 _ 07* _ 09 _ 03* _ 05 __ 03 + 1 ______ 34
jd ____(-10)________08 _ 08* _ 07 _ 10* _ 06 __ not in __ 39-10=29
_____________________________________________________________

* minimum progression scores for MAX and PRC.
Since jd had both a late penalty and sat out the bonus (probably thinking it had already been settled) I changed his late penalty to 10 from 15 as otherwise it was more like 20-25.

Table reposted with slight differences in scoring from earlier version ... took one point off all IMT scores, then adjusted SUN to fit the higher value of 82% (I had scored from 80% so it made a positive difference to some but not all scores).

Updated annual scoring table and four seasons spring totals to follow.

Congrats to (1) Jpmarn, (2) Lostinashford, and (3) Tae Laidir with Pauldry and sunflower3 close to the third place score also.

M.T. Cranium

Updated annual scoring Jan to May 2015


FORECASTER ____________ Jan _ Feb_ Mar _ Apr_ May __ 2015 Total _ best 4/5 ___ spring

Jpmarn __________________64 _ 57 _ 71 _ 78 _ 80 ___ 350 ________ 293 ____ 229 (10 pts)

Con Sensus ______________ 70 _ 71 _ 63 _ 65 _ 56 ___ 325 ________ 269 ____ 184 (3 pts)

Lumi ____________________68 _ 72 _ 59 _ 66 _ 56 ___ 321 ________ 265 ____ 181 (2 pts)
Rikand __________________ 84 _ 59 _ 48 _ 73 _ 52 ___ 316 ________ 268 ____ 173 (1 pt)
dacogawa ________________48 _ 62 _ 63 _ 77 _ 56 ___ 306 ________ 258 ____ 196 (6 pts)
Bsal ____________________ 77 _ 55 _ 68 _ 50 _ 55 ___ 305 ________ 255 ____ 173 (1 pt)
M.T. Cranium _____________ 68 _ 17 _ 71 _ 86 _ 60 ___ 302 ________ 285 ____ 217 (7 pts)
mickger844posts __________ 50 _ 90 _ 53 _ 61 _ 43 ___ 297 ________ 254 ____ 157
sunflower3 _______________ 69 _ 61 _ 59 _ 44 _ 64 ___ 297 ________ 253 ____ 167
Schadenfreudia ___________ 61 _ 67 _ 53 _ 60 _ 56 ___ 297 ________ 244 ____ 169
John mac ________________ 73 _ 55 _ 58 _ 60 _ 48 ___ 294 ________ 246 ____ 166
jd ______________________ 72 _ 61 _ 68 _ 62 _ 29 ___ 292 ________ 263 ____ 159
DOCARCH ________________75 _ 79 _ 40 _ 64 _ 34 ___ 292 ________ 258 ____ 138
Pauldry __________________51 _ 48 _ 70 _ 51 _ 65 ___ 285 ________ 237 ____ 186 (4 pts)
Joe Public ________________ 69 _ 42 _ 64 _ 72 _ 37 ___ 284 ________ 247 ____ 173 (1 pt)
dasa29 __________________ 47 _ 69 _ 67 _ 45 _ 55 ___ 283 ________ 238 ____ 167
kindredspirit ______________63 _ 57 _ 52 _ 59 _ 45 ___ 276 ________ 231 ____ 156
Tae laidir ________________ 33 _ 60 _ 46 _ 68 _ 66 ___ 273 ________ 240 ____ 180 (1 pt)
Harps ___________________ 69 _ 57 _ 34 _ 70 _ 43 ___ 273 ________ 239 ____ 147
omicron _________________ 41 _ 77 _ 40 _ 67 _ 47 ___ 272 ________ 232 ____ 154
rameire __________________55 _ 40 _ 46 _ 58 _ 59 ___ 258 ________ 218 ____ 163
MrSkinner ________________--- _ 71 _ 85 _ 54 _ 45 ___ 255 ________ 255 ____ 184 (3 pts)
lostinashford _____________ 56 _ --- _ 53 _ 64 _ 72 ___ 245 ________ 245 ____ 189 (5 pts)
waterways _______________ --- _ 70 _ 58 _ 58 _ 38 ___ 224 ________ 224 ____ 154
200motels _______________ 30 _ --- _ 59 _ 65 _ 56 ___ 210 ________ 210 ____ 180 (1 pt)
delw ____________________48 _ --- _ 61 _ --- _ --- ___ 109
blue5000 ________________ 45 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 45
BLIZZARD7 ______________ --- _ 31 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 31
__________________________________________________________

In the final column you can compare your scores as they might be trending towards the eventual outcome where it's best ten out of twelve (Boards Award), this is particularly true for those who have missed one month so far.

Spring totals have the four seasons points beside them, several tied for 10th place so quite a few scored. Scoring tended to equalize in the pack this month. One forecaster (Jpmarn) is ahead of Con Sensus in the raw score and two (Jpmarn and MTC) are ahead in the best four of five foreshadowing the main award at the end of the year. Quite a few are within striking distance.

M.T. Cranium

Four Seasons Award -- combined scores winter and spring

Checked back to February for the winter seasonal scores. Just a reminder, Con Sensus scores as if "he" was a contestant but that score does not drop anyone who falls below that mark. Interesting to note that Con has fallen off from 3rd highest to a tie for 6th highest, so we are making some headway apparently.

FORECASTER __________ winter __ spring ___ TOTAL to date

Rikand _________________ 10 ____ 1 _____ 11
Jpmarn _________________ 0 ____10 _____ 10

Con Sensus ______________ 6 ____ 3 ______ 9

dacogawa _______________ 1 ____ 6 ______ 7
DOCARCH _______________ 7 ____ 0 ______ 7
M.T. Cranium _____________0 ____ 7 ______ 7
jd ______________________6 ____ 0 ______ 6
Harps ___________________5 ____ 0 ______ 5
Lostinashford ____________ 0 ____ 5 _______5
kindredspirit _____________ 4 ____ 0 ______ 4
mickger844posts__________ 4 ____ 0 ______ 4
Pauldry _________________ 0 ____ 4 ______ 4
Bsal ____________________2 ____ 1 ______ 3
MrSkinner _______________ 0 ____ 3 ______ 3
Lumi ___________________ 0 ____ 2 ______ 2
sunflower3 ______________ 1 ____ 0 ______ 1
omicron _________________1 ____ 0 ______ 1
Joe Public _______________ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1
Tae laidir ________________0 ____ 1 ______ 1
200motels _______________0 ____ 1 ______ 1
__________________________________________________

Interesting to note that nobody has scored 2 or more in both seasons, apart from Con.