Leinster V Toulon 2015

UnknownEntity

So I'm going to the big match next week and I'm just wondering what everyone's predictions are. Personally I don't think that Leinster can win but nevertheless it's going to be a great match. Who else is going?

NoelJ

I think were definite underdogs. I don't think they're as good as last year and my only hope is that don't play well in the neutral stadium

Stan27

I think if leinster finically click, then anything can happen in the knock out stages. We have the players to do it
-finially

UnknownEntity

NoelJ wrote:

I think were definite underdogs. I don't think they're as good as last year and my only hope is that don't play well in the neutral stadium

I agree, that performance against Wasps wasn't that impressive to be honest. Thank God we're playing in the Velodrome because they have some insane home support and I'm hoping that it's a bit more balanced out in Marseille. It will be a very good match no doubt.

UnknownEntity

Stan27 wrote:

I think if leinster finically click, then anything can happen in the knock out stages. We have the players to do it -finially

I sure hope so anyway.

Stan27

Stan27 wrote: »

I think if leinster finically click, then anything can happen in the knock out stages. We have the players to do it
-finially

Don't have the halfbacks.

pickarooney

I'm going but not expecting anything but a sound beating.

CatFromHue

pickarooney wrote: »

I'm going but not expecting anything but a sound beating.

A sound beating?

Leinster have only been soundly beaten by Munster this season and we'd two very weak teams out for those games (in one of them our back 3 was Madigan, Fanning, and McGrath with Macken in the centre).

We're not going to be soundly beaten next week. Toulon are favourites but Leinster can defo cause an upset here.

irishbucsfan

I personally think we will be soundly beaten. I know that's a pretty defeatest attitude but I just don't see where we're going to beat them in any phase of play really. I feel bad even writing that.

RAKM

If Toulon feel Leinster are not the team they used to be and Leinster play a game where they finally click, then just maybe....

sydthebeat

I think Leinster as worse than last year and i think Toulon are better than last year, so i see an increase on the 15 point margin between them. Probably 20ish points 35 - 15 or similar

CatFromHue

sydthebeat wrote: »

I think Leinster as worse than last year and i think Toulon are better than last year, so i see an increase on the 15 point margin between them. Probably 20ish points 35 - 15 or similar

With Te'o and Luke Fitz in the backs you can argue we're better in the backs than last year.

With SOB, Murphy, and Cronin you can argue we're better in the forwards than last year too.

Madigan is a better goal kicker than Gopperth too.

UnknownEntity

My mind says Toulon but my heart says Leinster. Just thinking of the Toulon players makes me worried but then again we've got some pretty good players ourselves. Hopefully Leinster train well and might even cause an upset

UnknownEntity

pickarooney wrote:

I'm going but not expecting anything but a sound beating.

Where are you going to be sitting?

thomond2006

Halfpenny went off today with a shoulder injury.

thomond2006

thomond2006 wrote: »

Halfpenny went off today with a shoulder injury.

Armitage is a better player anyway imo (as much as I dislike him) and they've loads of players who can kick goals.

stephen_n

CatFromHue wrote: »

With Te'o and Luke Fitz in the backs you can argue we're better in the backs than last year.

With SOB, Murphy, and Cronin you can argue we're better in the forwards than last year too.

Madigan is a better goal kicker than Gopperth too.

T'eo better than BOD? On what planet are you living, as good as he may become (he's not even close yet), he would still never be as good as even a declining BOD, oh yeah and he can't pass! There's blind optimism and then there's this.


I would say we will do well to finish within 15 points of them, I doubt they will make the same mistake of taking their foot off the gas they did with Wasps. Our pack will keep us from getting hosed but that's it, can't see Toulon coughing up the penalities for Madigan to kick and tries for us will be rarer than hens teeth.

matthew8

stephen_n wrote: »

T'eo better than BOD? On what planet are you living, as good as he may become (he's not even close yet), he would still never be as good as even a declining BOD, oh yeah and he can't pass! There's blind optimism and then there's this.


I would say we will do well to finish within 15 points of them, I doubt they will make the same mistake of taking their foot off the gas they did with Wasps. Our pack will keep us from getting hosed but that's it, can't see Toulon coughing up the penalities for Madigan to kick and tries for us will be rarer than hens teeth.

Might not be better than a declining BOD, but I'd much rather him against Bastareaud than a declining BOD, who really struggled with him twice in quick succession last year. Not that I think our prospects are any good, but if you're in it you can win it at this stage.

dubal

I'm going too, looking forward to it.

Dubal

Sitting in Ganay UBSA

vienne86

Toulon didn't put up a good show in the quarters, by their standards, so I rather think they will be really up for this match. Unfortunately. I think we'll be soundly beaten, but I'd love to be wrong.

total former

Toulon ain't all that. Munster gave them a fright this stage last year. They struggled to put Wasps away. They conceded four tries today, albeit with a much changed team.

They are justified favorites but it's knock out rugby and anything could happen. I don't think we'll be humiliated and a win is not out of the question.

thomond2006

Leinster don't have enough in the locker to win but I can't see them losing heavily. I'd say Toulon, 10-12.

AbusesToilets

Go back and watch the quarter final game again, Leinster were well in it. If the lineout hadn't been a shambles and Leinster had capitalised on turn over balls, the result could have been much tighter.

Toulon are rightly favorites, but it's not a forgone conclusion. Plus it's at a neutral venue, which is a better situation from last time out.

sydthebeat

CatFromHue wrote: »

With Te'o and Luke Fitz in the backs you can argue we're better in the backs than last year.

With SOB, Murphy, and Cronin you can argue we're better in the forwards than last year too.

Madigan is a better goal kicker than Gopperth too.

cronin played a whole half last year

our centre partnership of darcy / Bod is-was better than madigan / teo

(ruddock / jennings / heaslip) versus (murphy / SOB / Heaslip)
is much of a muchness really, arguable much better balance in last years.



we were 17 points down with 15 minutes to go, toulon knew they had it in the bag and took the foot off the pedal, i dont think we ever had the beating of them last year.

Neil3030

Toulon, a billion nil.

CatFromHue

stephen_n wrote: »

T'eo better than BOD? On what planet are you living, as good as he may become (he's not even close yet), he would still never be as good as even a declining BOD, oh yeah and he can't pass! There's blind optimism and then there's this.


I would say we will do well to finish within 15 points of them, I doubt they will make the same mistake of taking their foot off the gas they did with Wasps. Our pack will keep us from getting hosed but that's it, can't see Toulon coughing up the penalities for Madigan to kick and tries for us will be rarer than hens teeth.

BOD had his worst game probably ever in that QF. He missed alot of tackles and didn't offer anything with the ball.

BOD at his best is obviously better than Te'o at the moment but BOD by his own admission had only a couple of good performances last season and alot of poor ones too.

stephen_n

CatFromHue wrote: »

BOD had his worst game probably ever in that QF. He missed alot of tackles and didn't offer anything with the ball.

BOD at his best is obviously better than Te'o at the moment but BOD by his own admission had only a couple of good performances last season and alot of poor ones too.

T'eo can offload in the tackle but can't pass, is a big hitter but has seemingly no awareness of the defensive line around him or the ability to ruck properly yet. He may be able to hit Basteraud hard a couple of times but Giteau is going to dance through the basketball court size holes he leaves in the defense when shooting up. Yes BOD along with others had a poor game that day but if we had T'eo a year earlier BOD would have started all day long. Also as brilliant as luke is his ability to influence the game is going to be diminished by the fact we will have two centres who don't/can't pass. SOB is the only significantly better player but losing Ruddock negates that gain.

pickarooney

haiyna wrote: »

Where are you going to be sitting?

De perretti R

garhjw

With a clown for a coach and an outhalf not up to this level I think Toulon by 20 points

.ak

stephen_n wrote: »

T'eo can offload in the tackle but can't pass, is a big hitter but has seemingly no awareness of the defensive line around him or the ability to ruck properly yet. He may be able to hit Basteraud hard a couple of times but Giteau is going to dance through the basketball court size holes he leaves in the defense when shooting up. Yes BOD along with others had a poor game that day but if we had T'eo a year earlier BOD would have started all day long. Also as brilliant as luke is his ability to influence the game is going to be diminished by the fact we will have two centres who don't/can't pass. SOB is the only significantly better player but losing Ruddock negates that gain.

Where are you getting the can't pass thing? He's actually put Fitzgerald through a gap a few times with some lovely distribution. He's a fine passer, but much like his rucking I would say he's been told to keep it to a minimums until he's fully comfortable.

Tim Robbins

Well if you think about it, Leinster have a good pack and a good scrum.

The team haven't really hit form in any part of the season and have scraped their way to this stage. But, we have a lot of international players that just won the VI nations so can't be written off.

vienne86

Tim Robbins wrote: »

Well if you think about it, Leinster have a good pack and a good scrum.

The team haven't really hit form in any part of the season and have scraped their way to this stage. But, we have a lot of international players that just won the VI nations so can't be written off.

Yes, a good scrum and good pack, but it's the back line that is worrying.

stephen_n

.ak wrote: »

Where are you getting the can't pass thing? He's actually put Fitzgerald through a gap a few times with some lovely distribution. He's a fine passer, but much like his rucking I would say he's been told to keep it to a minimums until he's fully comfortable.

Most times he gets the ball he takes it into contact, when he doesn't knock it on, when he does pass it's not sympathetic to the receiver, a couple of good passes does not a summer make, to mix metaphors. His distribution out of the tackle is excellent but he hasn't displayed a decent range of passing that a 13 should have as yet. Sure Madigan has a lovely long pass but it's feck all use if he steps inside or mistimes it. We seek to go wide quickly but play centres who negate that plan.

irishbucsfan

stephen_n wrote: »

Most times he gets the ball he takes it into contact, when he doesn't knock it on, when he does pass it's not sympathetic to the receiver, a couple of good passes does not a summer make, to mix metaphors. His distribution out of the tackle is excellent but he hasn't displayed a decent range of passing that a 13 should have as yet. Sure Madigan has a lovely long pass but it's feck all use if he steps inside or mistimes it. We seek to go wide quickly but play centres who negate that plan.

He looks like a good passe to me. Not sure where you're getting that from. He seems to have quite a few passes in his armoury. League players generally do come across with a lot of skill as passers

thomond2006

If Leinster can play a high tempo game and run Toulon's relatively old pack around the pitch then opportunities will present themselves. Hayman, Bakkies and Ali Williams aren't going to cover ground quickly. If it becomes a slow pace armwrestle then the likes of Armitage, Gorgodze and Bastareaud will dominate the contact area. It's crucial that Reddan is switched on and can recycle possession quickly to take Toulon's heavies out of the game.

stephen_n

irishbucsfan wrote: »

He looks like a good passe to me. Not sure where you're getting that from. He seems to have quite a few passes in his armoury. League players generally do come across with a lot of skill as passers

Because I haven't seen it, that's what I'm basing it on, maybe he can, maybe he will in the future but right now he hasn't displayed it for Leinster. We are talking in terms of the original comment, which stated our backline is better this year because T'eo is in it and I have not seen that at all. I'm not knocking his potential, I think long term he will be a great asset to us, though Id prefer him at 12 but I haven't seen him as a great distributor so far.

padser

CatFromHue wrote: »

Leinster have only been soundly beaten by Munster this season

Ah here, I know that people around here like to try and maintain our season hasn't actually been that bad, but surely we can't refuse to call a 23-13 defeat to the Scarlets not more than a few weeks back a "sound beating".

Incidentally, if we take Bath, Glasgow, Munster, Quinn's and Wasps as the best teams we have played this year (fair I think?) our record is 3-2-4.

Now 5 of those 9 games were home games, and of those 4 away games our record is 0-1-3.

We haven't won away from home since January 10th and have played the Scarlets, the Ospreys and Wasps.

Now Toulon are a far better team than what we have yet faced (I'd put them as 5-7 point favourites on neutral ground against most of the teams I've just mentioned).

We are, effectively, playing Toulon away from home (through no fault of our own, it was just the way we were drawn) so for me, only the most blinkered supporter could have watched us so far this season and predict anything other than a sound beating from Toulon.

I'll just go put on my miracle cap, and I really hope that this day next week someone is quoting this post and rubbing my face in it!!! :-)

UnknownEntity

padser wrote:

I'll just go put on my miracle cap, and I really hope that this day next week someone is quoting this post and rubbing my face in it!!! :-)

I sure hope so too, I guess only time will tell.

CatFromHue

padser wrote: »

Ah here, I know that people around here like to try and maintain our season hasn't actually been that bad, but surely we can't refuse to call a 23-13 defeat to the Scarlets not more than a few weeks back a "sound beating".

Incidentally, if we take Bath, Glasgow, Munster, Quinn's and Wasps as the best teams we have played this year (fair I think?) our record is 3-2-4.

Now 5 of those 9 games were home games, and of those 4 away games our record is 0-1-3.

We haven't won away from home since January 10th and have played the Scarlets, the Ospreys and Wasps.

Now Toulon are a far better team than what we have yet faced (I'd put them as 5-7 point favourites on neutral ground against most of the teams I've just mentioned).

We are, effectively, playing Toulon away from home (through no fault of our own, it was just the way we were drawn) so for me, only the most blinkered supporter could have watched us so far this season and predict anything other than a sound beating from Toulon.

I'll just go put on my miracle cap, and I really hope that this day next week someone is quoting this post and rubbing my face in it!!! :-)

I would include Ulster and Ospreys in the best teams we've played this season.

It's true we haven't won away from home since Jan 10 but we've only played 3 away games and only lost one of them.

I personally don't think our season is that bad considering the players we've had available to us. It's bad compared to seasons gone but our squad has been quite different compared to seasons past too.

I would like us to be playing better of course but you have to accept one of the reasons, a big reason too, is that we haven't had the players this season.

Before this season Dom Ryan was looking like he was on the way out of Leinster and his last, and only, start in a European game was in the 10/11 season. This season he's started 4 European games.

Ryan and Tom Denton was our sub loose forwards for a European QF.

In previous seasons these guys wouldn't have been anywhere near a European QF squad.

molloyjh

CatFromHue wrote: »

I would include Ulster and Ospreys in the best teams we've played this season.

It's true we haven't won away from home since Jan 10 but we've only played 3 away games and only lost one of them.

I personally don't think our season is that bad considering the players we've had available to us. It's bad compared to seasons gone but our squad has been quite different compared to seasons past too.

I would like us to be playing better of course but you have to accept one of the reasons, a big reason too, is that we haven't had the players this season.

Before this season Dom Ryan was looking like he was on the way out of Leinster and his last, and only, start in a European game was in the 10/11 season. This season he's started 4 European games.

Ryan and Tom Denton was our sub loose forwards for a European QF.

In previous seasons these guys wouldn't have been anywhere near a European QF squad.

Yet during the 6 Nations when our squad was arguably a bit stronger than previous seasons we were really poor....

CatFromHue

I agree I think we could be playing better.

The team who played away to Ospreys this season
15. Zane Kirchner
14. Fergus McFadden
13. Ben Te'o
12. Gordon D'Arcy
11. Dave Kearney
10. Jimmy Gopperth
9. Isaac Boss CAPTAIN (Luke McGrath, 68)
1. Michael Bent
2. Richardt Strauss
3. Tadhg Furlong
4. Tom Denton (Ben Marshall, 62)
5. Kane Douglas
6. Rhys Ruddock
7. Josh van der Flier
8. Dominic Ryan (Dan Leavy, 68)

REPLACEMENTS NOT USED: Aaron Dundon, Peter Dooley, Royce Burke-Flynn, Noel Reid, Darragh Fanning.

The team who beat Glasgow at home last season

LEINSTER:
15: Zane Kirchner
14: Darragh Fanning
13: Fergus McFadden
12: Noel Reid
11: Sam Coghlan Murray (Darren Hudson, 75)
10: Ian Madigan
9: Eoin Reddan (Isaac Boss, 51)
1: Jack McGrath (Michael Bent, 72)
2: Sean Cronin (Richardt Strauss, 51)
3: Martin Moore (Mike Ross, 51)
4: Leo Cullen CAPTAIN
5: Mike McCarthy
6: Rhys Ruddock
7: Shane Jennings (Dominic Ryan, 68)
8: Jordi Murphy
REPLACEMENTS NOT USED: Tom Denton, Jimmy Gopperth.

Last years pack was far stronger if you ask me.

aimee1

thomond2006 wrote: »

Halfpenny went off today with a shoulder injury.

http://balls.ie/rugby/video-the-monster-hit-that-could-rule-leigh-halfpenny-out-of-toulonleinster/

theboy1

I think it will be similar to the 2006 semi final.

That was the day Munster confirmed their status as the dominant Irish province, utterly embarrassing a spineless Leinster team.Even though played in Leinsters backyard it was a sea of red, reinforcing the widely shared opinion that Munster have the best fans in the world.

CatFromHue

So you think Leinster are going to win and our fans well be crowned the best in the world?

total former

Wales Online reporting a "minor dislocation" of Halfpenny's shoulder. Not ruled out yet.

TBH whether he plays or not is no biggie for either team, Armitage is probably better in attack anyway and Michalak or Giteau can kick the goals.

total former

So anyway...

Likely changes from the Bath line up for next week? I don't see any really. The only possible is Te'o who will be cited and will very likely be banned given the warning he received from the Ospreys game.

If that happens then Luke moves to 13 and Kirchner to the wing. That weakens us a bit even if Zane was improved today. Question over McFadden too, obviously.

I thought D'Arcy did OK today but won't displace Madigan. Maybe if Douglas is still out then Marshall in for Denton.

Anyone else foresee changes?

stephen_n

Hopefully on the back of that D'Arcy will start, Goperth is a good enough kicker but I don't see it happening.

CatFromHue

One of the possibly changes could have been Jennings for Ryan on the bench but I can't see that happening now.

I don't know why Jennings came off but coming off so early and with a history of a niggly hamstring I'd say it was the hamstring again.

Sean Kinsella

haiyna wrote: »

So I'm going to the big match next week and I'm just wondering what everyone's predictions are. Personally I don't think that Leinster can win but nevertheless it's going to be a great match. Who else is going?

Can't really see past Toulon (although I'd love to be wrong).

Prediction: Toulon 27, Leinster 12

total former

So no chance of Toulon taking their eyes off the ball this weekend by the sounds of it...

Mourad Boudjellal wrote:

This weekend's match is definitely more important than last weekend. The main objective is to win the treble in the European Cup, that's what the squad has said.

http://www.rugbyrama.fr/rugby/top-14/2014-2015/top-14-mourad-boudjellal-toulon-lobjectif-premier-est-de-reussir-le-triple-en-coupe-deurope_sto4674791/story.shtml

molloyjh

stephen_n wrote: »

Hopefully on the back of that D'Arcy will start, Goperth is a good enough kicker but I don't see it happening.

Darce was good for large parts yesterday but I also felt he gave up too much ground in the tackle a lot too but going in too high. I don't think he did enough over the 80 to convince me he should start on Sunday.