Eurovision Bets

4068ac1elhodqr

Let's face it, the Eurovision has turned into a crock of s1yite. A fancy dress competition, teleconference call and a miming showcase extravaganza to go along with it all.

This year however Australia^ is welcomed into the circus of flag bearers.

Currently its going short with up to x15 still available for the Southern-Hemispherians.
oddschecker[dot]com - tv - eurovision - winner

Does the former user 'insidertips' or any 'novelty betting frenzy' fans fancy the chances of our antipodean cousins? ^ Australia is not in Europe btw.

4068ac1elhodqr

The best price is now only x9 (from x15 a few hours earlier) for the Aus to win.
Sounds like being mistaken for Austria has finally paid off!
Russel Crow to hold the torch/guitar 500/1.

Joe Doe

What about that famous (Victorian State born) douze pointe euro-balladeer...
... Johnny Logan?

the groutch

I wouldn't be too confident on Australia, the voting blocks will still hold too much sway imo

pbemff

Australia would be my each way bet. Not heard any of the songs and am not going to watch. But the Aussies are going to get a lot of votes out of curiosity and a lot of political 2nd place votes. They might not win it but each way would be a very good chance. IMO.

4068ac1elhodqr

Huge variance with Aus from x10 (lads) x17 (sky) right up to x30 (betfair). Top 3 surely even as warm handed token gesture.
Slovenia going short across the board, but x15 still available (whill). Italy (fav) as low as x2.6, struth.

A safe win only here is Estonia x5 and the emerging new EUA (nato) has their tanks there already on friendly drive-bys.

hmmm

Finland, Italy or Malta of the ones I've seen.

I'm not sure the novelty factor of Australia is enough - but they'll get some votes no matter who they enter.

4068ac1elhodqr

Aus: One factor is that as a new world country, they have boat loads of varied EU stock living there, plenty of Ire/UK locals along with lots of Turks, Ita, Scandis etc whom may offer dix points from voters towards great auntie/uncle sipping their Toohey's New down on the beach.

AFAIK only StanleyJ offer this as part of an 'e/w accum' (no other way to approach these novelties).

cnolan

sofabet[dot]com is a good site for eurovision betting analysis and opinion is anyone is interested.

I like the sound of italy & sweden so far.

4068ac1elhodqr

Handy link, though for a chap making 6-figures {soley from eurovision?}, yon Sofabet needs a snazzier pimpin' website for himself.
He's intro is right though, a catchy hook and sing-song-along chorus line that sticks like glue shall be the winner.

Haven't read the rest of the '22 paragraphs', so non the wiser and unlikely to buy the ESC double album.

4068ac1elhodqr

One user poll with fairly significant user count has Albania at the top and Ire in Top10.

Some chatter also about Poland being the dark horse of the entire competition. Odds of x101 right up to x526! available. This entry certainly has the wheels to push it up into the front the voter's recall and across instagram (ala the new fb/tw). Would be nice to see the young lady do well or win, likely to become one of the peoples favourites closer to 23 May.

Matt_Trakker

Luciana Little Mule wrote: »

This entry certainly has the wheels to push it up into the front

:eek::eek:
Jaysus, real classy making fun of a woman in a wheelchair.

4068ac1elhodqr

Not intentional, just giving a visual hint to an unique aspect of the performer, have backed at 100/1 as part of an accum would be keen for a win. Before the car accident she was already an active musician/performer/artist so isn't using it as a selling point. Just a singer in a song contest.

Is also a non-geo-politico factor unlike some previous years entries, which may or may not have been trying to stick a finger up to certain regions/countries and their policies.

Any thoughts on Finland's entry at 20/1?

Matt_Trakker

OK, sorry for thinking you were being crass.

In Poland though she's pretty much seen as washed up. Poland will prob do OK, when you consider Poles make up large minority groups in most of Western and Central Europe now and as such they make a lot of votes via text messages/calls for their homeland.

I'd love to see those Finns winning. Seems like a really cool bunch of lads, there's a pretty good documentary about them on the interwebs too. I dunno though, I think they mightn't be camp enough for the traditional Eurovision fan.

4068ac1elhodqr

True enough, it's become something of a drag show and catchy non-offensive slightly-left ballad karoke competition. e/w 4 places on the outsiders worth considering (within accumulators), will check back on that sofabet chap closer to the day...

efb

Finland would be my bet atm

4068ac1elhodqr

Certainly some great value at the moment for the Fins 'win only' at anywhere between x11-14-20-23. When you consider back in March they were 3rd fav. SJ only offering x12 (one of the few books to allow Novelties as part of accums with regular sports).

This from a BBC article back in March 1st:

"We don't want people to vote for us to feel sorry for us, we are not that different from everybody else - just normal guys with a mental handicap." They are 5/1 to win the contest, according to Betfred, making them third favourites behind Italy and Estonia.
Heavy metal band Lordi gave Finland its only Eurovision win to date with Hard Rock Hallelujah in 2006.

4068ac1elhodqr

Update on Euro-karoke '15:

Australia now currently only available at x5.0 (1/3 of the early x15 market price).
Great value presently available for Finland at up to x23 for e/w 1,2,3 (some 4 places).
Added wildcard Poland as 'win only-enhanced' to another accum as x601 is just generous.

betman00

Here is my tip. Do this and you'll have a guaranted profit.
30 euros on Estonia 90 euros profit (if wins)
100 euros on Sweden 77 euros profit (if wins)
20 euros on UK 810 euros profit (if wins)
20 euros on Norway 370 euros profit (if wins)
20 euros on Slovenia 370 euros profit (if wins)
20 euros on Albania 1410 euros profit (if wins)

4068ac1elhodqr

betman00 wrote: »

Here is my tip. Do this and you'll have a guaranted profit.
30 euros on Estonia 90 euros profit (if wins)
100 euros on Sweden 77 euros profit (if wins)
* 20 euros on UK 810 euros profit (if wins) FINLAND.
20 euros on Norway 370 euros profit (if wins)
20 euros on Slovenia 370 euros profit (if wins)
20 euros on Albania 1410 euros profit (if wins)

Pondering on this event for value returns, do like this creative approach, but would highly recommend swapping UK out for Finland in * as I've edited in above. Make sure you're getting at least 1/4 for 1,2,3 & 4. Will throw up some euro cheese blurb shortly...

mailburner

betman00 wrote: »

Here is my tip. Do this and you'll have a guaranted profit.
30 euros on Estonia 90 euros profit (if wins) 12s x 30/390...180 profit
100 euros on Sweden 77 euros profit (if wins) 2s
20 euros on UK 810 euros profit (if wins) 50s
20 euros on Norway 370 euros profit (if wins)
20 euros on Slovenia 370 euros profit (if wins)
20 euros on Albania 1410 euros profit (if wins)

famous last words
limited to one bookie there Im assuming given the returns are far great by shoping around
you're completely ruling out 2nd/3rd +5th favs in the betting (italy,aus russia)
you can save yourself 20 euro straight away by not backing the uk

I hope you didn't join just to post that

mailburner

Luciana Little Mule wrote: »

Pondering on this event for value returns, do like this creative approach, but would highly recommend swapping UK out for Finland in * as I've edited in above. Make sure you're getting at least 1/4 for 1,2,3 & 4. Will throw up some euro cheese blurb shortly...

do three figure priced countries ever win this contest?
off the top of my head i remember the olsson brothers were around40/50/1 when denmark won it but dont remember any big priced winners since but theres a few i didnt invest in either over the years

4068ac1elhodqr

With just 7 days to go, 100/1's is asking too much for a win, e/w top four is still x25 though.

Agree the uk's entry is toilet, then again it features plenty of 'jazz hands' which could maybe appeal to the viewing demographics.
Little chance of Ruska winning unless they're doing a flash gas summer sale to nearby states.
Forget about Australia, top 5 surely just as a novel gesture.

mailburner

not sure who'll be voting for the aussies
surely they have as much chance as us or the uk and the song is poor anyway

4068ac1elhodqr

Because Aussies are brand new to the event, every EU jury panel would have a sticky note reminding themselves not to forget to offer the newcomers a few token points, would be surprised if no one offered them at least uno point. Wonder if Home&Away is multi-translated...

4068ac1elhodqr

Update on Euro-karaoke '15 [ at T-7 days ]

Current BP's (Best e/w Prices in decimal) of 'value hot picks.'

---

Australia*¬ x 7.5 (Bwin)
Finland¬ x 21 (Boyles)
Poland^ x 151 (BVic)

key notes:
* Aus opened and hovered around a generous x15 for a short while.
¬ Boyles had the Fins at good value x 27 at for a good while last week.
^ Some 'win-only' markets still offer a phenonominal (but unlikely) x601.

Current BP's of 'wild card, trending picks.'

---

Latvia x67 (many)
Cyprus x81 (many)
Albania x101* (Fred/Tote)

* Some positive reviews on the aul blogs

Current BP's of 'value/oddities/phenomenon picks.'

---

Israel offered at x151 (SJ) whilst WH only offers it at x34.
Someone mentioned Malta last week, x251 available, very positive on blogs.
Would lay against UK's entry, its a surreal random 1930's fanfare extravaganza.

More speculation via sofabet, whom thinks Sweden (likely, but offering no value x3.25) is the one to beat.



'Fanciful May Novelty Cheesefest Group Highly Speculative Accumulator' {1 Accum & 15 fourfolds from six}:
========
1. Any one of the above, haven't settled on outright (win only), perhaps call it safe like a Volvo with the Swedes, x3.
2. Im A Celebrity, To Take Part: Jeremy Clarkson, (ideal public relations remedial & acquaintance exercise), x3.50.
3. BGT'15, from UDI (classy performance ideally suited to the target audience, that talking dog is good too), x5.
4. Next UK Labour leader: Liz Kendall (shortening) anyone could do better than MiliBLAND), x5.
5. Big Brother '16 Winner, Danny, (an average Joe, maybe the least annoying of the annoyances), x10.
6. (today only) Webb Simpson at WellsFargo, but likely RoryMc will continue to utterly destroy that leaderboard, x11.

1 unit Accum = 28,875 units return. {3x3.5x5x5x10x11}
'ANY' fourfold to arrive is net profit, or could also profit just using 20 triples or 15 doubles (all being well*) *may not go well and fairly difficult to find these selections available as accumulators.

mailburner

surely finland cant possibly win this or even be placed
it has nothing going for it
at least lordi was something you could sing along to, this is just a ridiculously
bad song with nothing going for it surely?

ianburke

small bet on italy for me. just for the interest. no reasoning behind it at all but have a reason to watch it now.

4068ac1elhodqr

Italy a bit short BP x4.33 as a single, but mixed with other selections might be ok. Though anything that short is bound to fluctuate somewhere, even for a short period, between now and the red curtains.

In regards to Finland, it was good e/w value for a while, currently 6th Fav, just behind Ruska.
- Although it's a sing-song contest, it's not just a sing-song contest, so throw in a mix of lefty-liberalism, geo-politics, visual recall, social media trending/exposure, novelty factors, performance & staging and a few other USPs.

Most of the early price wild card value bets are gone, but is currently going volatile during these semi-finals/final auditions, France went short yesterday, Norway's turn (17or34) today. You can still find well over 200% differences in e/w pricing though, which could be avenues for profit.

Juxtapose

Backed Finland and Russia both at 14s for interest.

They've both come in quite a bit, really like Russia's song and shes not so bad to look at either

mailburner

some gamble on the russians, best at 4/1 and as short as 11/4

value gone now sadly

JONJO THE MISER

Have been looking at Italy, will hold off for another while.

The_Kew_Tour

I got Russia at 14s and Finland at 20s.

My other bets are Poland at 150/1

All ew

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

surely finland cant possibly win this or even be placed
it has nothing going for it
at least lordi was something you could sing along to, this is just a ridiculously
bad song with nothing going for it surely?

just couldnt make a case for it though i did think it might qualify
good that some rubbish doesnt make it through
gutted i didnt back the russians when 12s last weekend

4068ac1elhodqr

Bit surprised, Finland went from about 5th fav into zero.
Perhaps they're running a song contest this year, instead of a variety show.
Ruska too risky to consider, price is shocking at only around x4.

Spotted something of interest on the Powersblog

(stats based on all previous winners)

---

Girls: 50% of winners
Black hair: 60% of winners
Up-tempo pop genre: 50% of winners
Beardless: 90% of winners

---

...and recommends Georgia (she's an ex-model), and country did two top 10's in last 3yrs.
However pp's odds of 33/1 are well beaten by others, 50/60/70's available elsewhere.

With 4 places, still plenty to choose from. Poland ew x151, Malta x250 etc as wild-cards.

Juxtapose

Think its very hard to look past Sweden to win it now after hearing the song and seeing the animated video going on!
They'll all be at that next year now if they win!

Took Norway 20/1 and Latvia 80/1 as each way bets to place, mainly as i like the songs and to keep the interest if Russia get blacklisted by their neighbours!

the groutch

Accumulator, would you like to share with us who you actually have money on?
You seen to have mentioned about 2/3 of the entrants at this stage, and it's unlikely you've had money on all of them.

4068ac1elhodqr

Many, but none as single only.

Always as parts of longer-term accumulators. Either as e/w or as single selection additions. Generally use 4 from 6. low stakes low risk, but high yields if the wind blows anywhere near the right way. Only intention is to pick off well priced possible multipliers to the other safe accums.

e/w selections on 'mid' risk accums

---

Aussies x15 (11 feb, early doors)
Fins x27 (x-out of action-x)
Poland x151
Georgia x51 (recent addition)

Very small wild e/w selections added on 'very low risk' accums

---

Latvia x67
Cyprus x81
Albania x101
Malta x251

Singles (but, these again, are as part of 'very safe win only' accums)

---

Estonia x5
Swedes x3
Poland x601

the groutch

some nice prices there, I didn't think many firms allowed multiples on novelties though?

4068ac1elhodqr

Stanley is the best for this lark, Boyles and a few others allow early e/w acc for this 'mainstream novelty event'.
Have accounts with everyone, some with reasonable limits (for accums), some usable with full limitation.
Never touch that 10/11 singles carry on, always speculate with low stakes to accumulate high returns.
Aim high, shoot low...

Gregk961

What would be an example of a "very safe" accum?

4068ac1elhodqr

Bunches of circa x3's or x5's (favs or near fav's, but not always) e/w 4 from 6-folds ideally.
Mostly placed early in the year and compared across books for the best numerals, some offsetting during year.

These bunches are mixed arrays of seasonal or yearly e/w major events.
So featuring likes of NBA/Baseball/GAA/Golf/Tennis/Superbowl/UK & Euro FBall Outrights etc...
This varied mix-up along with very tiny x-channels (games/poker) donations = good customer profile.

Getting just places on some 4/6+ selections is break even, or profit. Getting mostly wins is 10% charity donation time.
Thus the attraction of a splash of wild novelty markets as the optional wildcard add-on.
Unable to list 2015's selections as it would interfere with universal karmic resonance.
Good luck with the Euro-pop everyone, tricky one this year.

Can see EU-wide taxes on bet returns within 5yrs, so until standard interest rates return to 15%, will do.

sting60

the groutch wrote: »

Accumulator, would you like to share with us who you actually have money on?
You seen to have mentioned about 2/3 of the entrants at this stage, and it's unlikely you've had money on all of them.

Russia

sting60

Dutch bet you cannot lose based on last understanding top two.

The_Kew_Tour

With the Swedish entry homophobic views I wonder will that go against him tomorrow night.

At the price it its a lay for me now

tinodz

Estonia 25/1 EW (Top 4) is my only shot at the Eurovision.

I like the song (more than I should), and I like the simple stage presentation (really well done), which is more than I can say about most other performers tonight.

SING ALONG BOARDIES!!

Backstreet Moyes

Sweeden too short had a dabble on Italy for a bit of interest.

JONJO THE MISER

Went with Italy at 5/1.

The_Kew_Tour

Thank God for exchanges

4068ac1elhodqr

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

With the Swedish entry homophobic views I wonder will that go against him tomorrow night.

At the price it its a lay for me now

Well done the free thinking Swedes. Ruska was a bit of a surprise, but guess the theme was 'building bridges' after all. Belgium (4th) went short few days ago but was at very high price just earlier today.

France also went short few days ago also but burned out with just 4pts in total. The UK entry made me sick in the mouth, perhaps a joke entry? (total of 5pts). I'll admit the Euro-pop is harder to call than it looks.

Commiseration to the two zero pointer counties (that must be tough) and congrats to anyone whom picked up wins or 4pl e/w's. Next major on the Novelty oddities is Big'Bro, now that's very tough viewing to be fair...

1. Sweden. Mans Zelmerlow - Heroes. 365 points
2. Russia. Polina Gagarina - A Million Voices. 303
3. Italy. Il Volo - Grande Amore. 292
4. Belgium. Loic Nottet - Rhythm Inside. 217
5. Australia. Guy Sebastian - Tonight Again. 196

the bottom:
24 - UK. Electro Velvet (above) - Still In Love With You. 5 points
25 - France. Lisa Angell - N'oubliez Pas. 4
=26 - Austria. The Makemakes - I Am Yours. 0
=26 - Germany. Ann Sophie - Black Smoke. 0

Hulk Hands

Luciana Little Mule wrote: »

Stanley is the best for this lark, Boyles and a few others allow early e/w acc for this 'mainstream novelty event'.
Have accounts with everyone, some with reasonable limits (for accums), some usable with full limitation.
Never touch that 10/11 singles carry on, always speculate with low stakes to accumulate high returns.
Aim high, shoot low...

No surprise here anyway