Match preview & thread: Italy v. IRELAND, Sat 7 Feb 2.30pm, RTÉ2/BBC1

Swiwi.

ITALIA VERSUS HIBERNIA

Dulce et decorum est pro patria ludere

(with humble apologies to Horace & Owen)

Match Essentials

Date: Saturday, 7th February

Kick-off: 2.30pm Irish time

Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome

Referee: Pascal Gaüzère (FFR)

Assistant Referee: Wayne Barnes (RFU)

Assistant Referee: Stuart Berry (SARU)

TMO: Graham Hughes (RFU)

Broadcasters: RTÉ2/BBC1

Starting XVs

Masi, Sarto, Campagnaro, Morisi, McLean, Haimona, Gori, Aguero, Ghiraldini, Castrogiovanni, Furno, Biagi, Zanni, Minto, Parisse
Rob, Tommy, Jared, Robbie, Simon, Ian, Conor, Jack, Rory, Mike, Devin, Paul, Peter, Sean, Jordi

Riding the pine

Manici, De Marchi, Chistolini, Fuser, Barbini, Palazzani, Allan, Venditti
Sean, James, Marty, Iain, Tommy, Isaac, Ian, Felix

So it begins

After last year’s edge-of-your-seat tournament triumph in Paris, and a successful autumn campaign against the might of South Africa and Australia, our boys in green kick of their MMXV Six Nations campaign at the Stadio Olimpica in Rome. Back to back titles, especially if accompanied to the tune of a grand slam, would reinforce Ireland’s credentials as bona fide RWC contendors…however as fans of the blackest jersey ever well know, when it comes to tournament rugby, taking one match at a time is a sina qua non. Indeed, Italy triumphed 22-15 in the corresponding 2013 fixture, a game we well remember for Ireland’s defeat and BOD’s circa 10 minutes on the sidelines.

Selections

Despite the Autumn series clean sweep, coach Joe Schmidt has not been able to maintain the selection status quo from the Australian game, with 4 injury-related changes to the starting XV and a positional shift for Robbie Henshaw, as well as a radically altered bench.

Starting with the backs, and due to Jonathan Sexton being non compos mentis at the neurologist’s table and Paddy Jackson convalescing after surgery for a dislocated elbow, Schmidt et al have turned not quite in extremis but nevertheless with a little anxiety I imagine to Ian & Ian at flyhalf. Both players are undoubtedly talented, but have flaws to their games which could be exposed at the searing coalface of the Northern Hemisphere’s premier international competition. However, if Keatley can eliminate unforced errors from the boot, and Madigan can play a little less ad hoc and a litte more admin, Ireland should do just fine. Otherwise, a return from injury allows Jared Payne and Robbie Henshaw to reunite in the midfield, and regardless of whether you agree with this selection, it is pleasing to see Schmidt targeting a settled midfield combination for the 2015 season - in the grand scheme of things this is probably more important than the actual players chosen.

Moving to the forwards, and although Mike Ross might currently be persona non grata in the Leinster first XXIII, he has held off the robust challenge from his provincial team-mate Marty Moore. In modern rugby, a change at tighthead around the 60-minute mark has almost become a de facto occurrence, but for this match I expect Mike to wish Marty “Good luck, mate” through fairly gritted teeth! Otherwise, we are all delighted to a man and woman to see the return of the Tullow Tank. Sean's modus operandi is basically smash and grab and generally be excellent. Finally, Jordi Murphy replaces the injured Heaslip, jacothelad was still in nappies the last time Jamie was ruled out by injury.

The bench has been discussed ad nauseum this afternoon on the forum, so I won't repeat everything verbatim, but suffice to say that the boards vox populi lost out to Joe Schmidt's power of veto. Every man will be wanting to impress if they get their chance - Irish depth has much improved in recent times, and squads later in the season are likely to be restricted to a miserly 31 spots.

An Italian to watch

Well...it depends how you define Italian. I'm going to go with Kelly Haimona, like Joe Schmidt formerly involved with the Bay of Plenty ITM cup side, and a stalwart of the Whakarewarewa club. The wee Māori fulla has the all-important job of leading Italy from flyhalf, and his day's outing could well be decisive to Italy's fortunes.

Tactics

There were 2 notable tactical ploys from Ireland in November: the deliberate decision for Toner & POC to remain on terra firma at lineout time and not allow South Africa to form their dangerous rolling maul; and the use of Bowe & Zebo ranging out near the touchlines to pounce on delicately weighted kicks in behind from Johnny and Conor. With modern video analysis, Ireland will not be able to get away with this ad infinitum, and it will be interesting to see if Italy have paid any heed to the Autumn series. I expect Ireland to build on their base from Autumn, but aim to increase their array of attacking ploys. Defence might win matches, but tries sell beer.

Final thoughts

In our lingua franca of rugby, let's put aside our quibbles over team selection (at least until the after-match post mortem), display our amor patriae, and roll in behind our boys in green!

Prediction

The Italians might have given us Latin, but FECK IT, Ireland will give Italy a rugby lesson! Joe and the lads to say Veni, Vidi, Vici, and Ireland by 15.

molloyjh

"Our boys" eh, good man Swiwi!

mfceiling

That's the boy swiwi...

The build up has officially begun!!

ken76

Nicely written

Podge_irl

No table. Squad attachment picture broken. B-

thebaz

nice write up Swiwi , but the teams aren't showing :

ITALY (v Ireland): A Masi (Wasps); L Sarto (Zebre), M Campagnaro (Treviso), L Morisi (Treviso), L McLean (Sale); K Haimona (Zebre), E Gori (Treviso); M Aguero (Zebre), L Ghiraldini (Leicester), M Castrogiovanni (Toulon); J Furno (Newcastle), G Biagi (Zebre); A Zanni (Treviso), F Minto (Treviso), S Parisse (Stade Francais).
Replacements: A Manici (Zebre), A De Marchi (Sale Sharks), D Chistolini (Zebre), M Fuser (Treviso), M Barbini (Treviso), G Palazzani (Zebre),T Allan (Perpignan), G Venditti (Zebre).

Ireland: R Kearney; T Bowe, J Payne, R Henshaw, S Zebo; I Keatley, C Murray; J McGrath, R Best, M Ross; D Toner, P O’Connell (capt); P O’Mahony, S O’Brien, J Murphy. Replacements: J Cronin, M Moore, S Cronin, I Henderson, T O’Donnell, I Boss, I Madigan, F Jones.

Tox56

thebaz wrote: »

nice write up Swiwi , but the teams aren't showing :

ITALY (v Ireland): A Masi (Wasps); L Sarto (Zebre), M Campagnaro (Treviso), L Morisi (Treviso), L McLean (Sale); K Haimona (Zebre), E Gori (Treviso); M Aguero (Zebre), L Ghiraldini (Leicester), M Castrogiovanni (Toulon); J Furno (Newcastle), G Biagi (Zebre); A Zanni (Treviso), F Minto (Treviso), S Parisse (Stade Francais).
Replacements: A Manici (Zebre), A De Marchi (Sale Sharks), D Chistolini (Zebre), M Fuser (Treviso), M Barbini (Treviso), G Palazzani (Zebre),T Allan (Perpignan), G Venditti (Zebre).

Ireland: R Kearney; T Bowe, J Payne, R Henshaw, S Zebo; I Keatley, C Murray; J McGrath, R Best, M Ross; D Toner, P O’Connell (capt); P O’Mahony, S O’Brien, J Murphy. Replacements: J Cronin, M Moore, S Cronin, I Henderson, T O’Donnell, I Boss, I Madigan, F Jones.

Names not in twitter handle form? 3/10

molloyjh

Well written mate. Although you've set a standard now with that Latin. If you're doing a French write up this season I expect plenty of native French speak!

Would love to see us win by 15 tbh. Would expect a 5 or 6 pointer though. That said we've all seen how good my predictions have been this season....

Podge_irl

Talk of the two Ians at flyhalf really makes you wonder what if? regarding McKinley.

Nice write up. Slightly worried about this game but less worried than I was before the SA game and look how that turned out. Ireland are half the team without Sexton though, the gap between him and anyone is monstrously large.

BBDBB

Please sir? Will the latin be on the test?


good write up, starting to get excited by this years tournament

thebaz

Tox56 wrote: »

Names not in twitter handle form? 3/10

I'm a technology dinosaur , cut & paste old school for thebaz

wittycynic

I haven't seen such liberal use of Latin since my graduation ceremony. I had a hearty chortle at that, brilliant write-up.

On the subject of the rugby, Ireland have a vastly superior team and should be expecting a good victory here. If we do it by less than 15 we'll be underperforming

PTH2009

Have a bad feeling about this match. I can see Italy winning by 3 points. There good at home but please god I'm wrong and we hammer them

Swiwi.

With a little help from the forum's "table expert", I believe the team image is now showing correctly.

Quint2010

I think a 15 point spread is a bit optimistic. Italy are at home, it's the first game and they will get confidence from the last time they played us in Rome. Plus we don't have a Sexton. Ireland by six.

Swiwi.

Quint2010 wrote: »

I think a 15 point spread is a bit optimistic. Italy are at home, it's the first game and they will get confidence from the last time they played us in Rome. Plus we don't have a Sexton. Ireland by six.

I got confused between XV & VI...frickin Roman numeral bullshìt.

Yeah, maybe a tad swept up in the opening weekend euphoria. Ireland by 6.

Pudsy33

I don't share the optimism of some. I'll happily take a one score victory. Talk of anything other then a double digit victory being an underachievment is off the mark I think. Especially with the injuries to Sexton and Heaslip.

bilston

Will be close but I think we will edge away towards the end with the likes of Cronin, Henderson and Madigan to come off the bench. Ireland by 11 but we will need to perform and as ever will need a turn of luck in our favour on occasion.

I think Robbie Henshaw is going to have a big tournament and I expect him to have a few cuts at the Italian defence on Sat.

It's like Christmas Eve right now!!

thomond2006

McGrath is going to mince Castrogiovanni.

matthew8

There's this cliché about Italy being an improving side but the reality is they gone backwards badly since beating Ireland and France during the 2013 6 nations. Since that campaign, they've only won 2 out of 14, the wins at home to Fiji and Samoa. Last year's game between the sides was incredibly one sided with Italy having to make 245 tackles, I'll be surprised if there's less than 7 in it by the end of the game.

BBDBB

I suspect that the first half will be mostly Italy defending and tackling with the scores still fairly close at the half, then Ireland to pull away in the final 20

vienne86

I'd fancy Ireland to win this one, but not by much. Italy are always at their best at the start of the tournament, and are a tough opposition on their home patch. I think we are up for it, and I think our bench will be crucial in finishing the job.

Buer

Classy write up, Swiwi. Regarding the Italians, let us hope under a green sea, we see them drowning.

Swiwi.

Buer wrote: »

Classy write up, Swiwi. Regarding the Italians, let us hope under a green sea, we see them drowning.

You too for leaving cert English, huh

Tox56

matthew8 wrote: »

There's this cliché about Italy being an improving side but the reality is they gone backwards badly since beating Ireland and France during the 2013 6 nations. Since that campaign, they've only won 2 out of 14, the wins at home to Fiji and Samoa. Last year's game between the sides was incredibly one sided with Italy having to make 245 tackles, I'll be surprised if there's less than 7 in it by the end of the game.

Yeah Im naturally nervous that we'll make it more difficult than it should be, but on paper we absolutely have this, by a double figure margin imo. Even without Sexton (& Heaslip, Healy) theres a bucketload of quality out there

bilston

While I think we will win by more than a score there are areas of concern. The scrum, the back row, how close to his best will SOB be? Is Murphy up to it? Can Murray last the distance? There have to be concerns about Keatley, and how will the midfield go? They are very inexperienced. It's going to be tough but if we come through a few guys will have come of age.

BBDBB

bilston wrote: »

While I think we will win by more than a score there are areas of concern. The scrum, the back row, how close to his best will SOB be? Is Murphy up to it? Can Murray last the distance? There have to be concerns about Keatley, and how will the midfield go? They are very inexperienced. It's going to be tough but if we come through a few guys will have come of age.

not just SOB bils, POM is only just back from injury too

captbarnacles

Italy will keep this close and it could come down to how well we kick the goals. I think Italy will be still well in the game at 60 minutes and the bench of both teams will decide it so hopefully us.

CIARAN_BOYLE

If someone has time could they go through the italian pack and post the age of each player. I'm guessing (but have no time to verify that 5 of them are over 33 and 2 of the rest are over 30.

pc7

Great write up, can't wait now.

Glass Prison 1214

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

If someone has time could they go through the italian pack and post the age of each player. I'm guessing (but have no time to verify that 5 of them are over 33 and 2 of the rest are over 30.

N8 8 Sergio Parisse (c) (31)
OF 7 Francesco Minto (27)
BF 6 Alessandro Zanni (31)
RL 5 George Biagi (29)
LL 4 Joshua Furno (25)
TP 3 Martin Castrogiovanni (33)
HK 2 Leonardo Ghiraldini (30)
LP 1 Matías Agüero (33)

CIARAN_BOYLE

Glass Prison 1214 wrote: »

N8 8 Sergio Parisse (c) (31)
OF 7 Francesco Minto (27)
BF 6 Alessandro Zanni (31)
RL 5 George Biagi (29)
LL 4 Joshua Furno (25)
TP 3 Martin Castrogiovanni (33)
HK 2 Leonardo Ghiraldini (30)
LP 1 Matías Agüero (33)

well I was completely wrong

Zanni Parisse castro ghiraldini and aguero were all players I thought were over 33 while Biagi and Minto I thought were over 30

Buer

Swiwi. wrote:

You too for leaving cert English, huh 

And college because I'm a glutton for punishment, apparently.

Flipper22

I agree with Swiwi, think we'll win quite comfortably. I expect us to be in control throughout and maybe put up a bit of a score in the last 20.

irishbucsfan

Buer wrote: »

And college because I'm a glutton for punishment, apparently.

You studied English in college?!

Jesus christ. The most awful boring evening I have ever spent on boards.ie was going through every one of GerM's posts unthanking all of them after finding out he was a northsider. Looks like I have another one of those nights ahead of me...

part time punk

bilston wrote: »

While I think we will win by more than a score there are areas of concern. The scrum, the back row, how close to his best will SOB be? Is Murphy up to it? Can Murray last the distance? There have to be concerns about Keatley, and how will the midfield go? They are very inexperienced. It's going to be tough but if we come through a few guys will have come of age.

That's my biggest worry. Has SOB really only played 50 minutes of the Wolfhounds match in 14 months? I'd have thought it's a big step up from that to a 6 Nations game, just hope he's not being forced back too early cause of injuries. To think a potential back-row of Ruddock, Henry, Heaslip is unavailable :eek:
Murray is going to be such a key player, especially in this game. Anyway, Ireland by 4 points, only 2 sleeps to go !

CatFromHue

Flipper22 wrote: »

I agree with Swiwi, think we'll win quite comfortably. I expect us to be in control throughout and maybe put up a bit of a score in the last 20.

I think we'll win but not so sure about the comfortable bit

homecouldbhere

If I was having a bet (I'm not) I'd be backing it to be tied at half-time (6-6 or 9-9). Or we could even be trailing by 6-3, 9-3 or 9-6.
This has been the pattern with us playing Italy away & early in the 6N.

The bench should win it for us. I'm thinking Ireland by somewhere between 8-12 points, with us scoring 10 points in the last 15 minutes. But we'll have a lot of squeaky bum, "ah for fcuk sake *Keatley!" incidents before the final whistle I reckon!

I'll be EXTREMELY happy if we come away with any kind of a win, and NO fresh injuries(big ask against the Italian pack always, esp in their first game, and on their turf.)

*I'm not shocked or disappointed with the Keatley selection fwiw!!

Flipper22

CatFromHue wrote: »

I think we'll win but not so sure about the comfortable bit

I don't mean that we'll necessarily hockey them but I don't think we'll look like losing at any point.

dubal

I'm confident enough this will be over at half time, we'll take Seanie off soon after half time too

Dubal

Neil3030

Glass Prison 1214 wrote: »

N8 8 Sergio Parisse (c) (31)
OF 7 Francesco Minto (27)
BF 6 Alessandro Zanni (31)
RL 5 George Biagi (29)
LL 4 Joshua Furno (25)
TP 3 Martin Castrogiovanni (33)
HK 2 Leonardo Ghiraldini (30)
LP 1 Matías Agüero (33)

In Italian years, these guys are just about hitting puberty.

redmca2

dubal wrote: »

I'm confident enough this will be over at half time, we'll take Seanie off soon after half time tool

I would expect TOD to take O'Briens place after 60 minutes and I think it is more likely that Henderson will come on as a back row replacement than for POC or Toner.

Noopti

It is a tough one to call. Not the winner, but the nature of the win. First game in the 6 Nations is generally a rusty/sloppy affair, and against Italy it will be even more of a dogfight.

However, this is the first game and my optimism is high. So I won't let my head rule this one. Ireland by 20 points, SOB to score first try.

crybaby

A lot of unwarranted nerves on this thread, we were an absolute shambles as a team when they beat us in 2013. We now have have a different mindset, different tactics and a different coach.

I see us beating them by at least 15 points, really looking forward to it.

crybaby

crybaby wrote: »

A lot of unwarranted nerves on this thread, we were an absolute shambles as a team when they beat us in 2013. We now have have a different mindset, different tactics and a different coach.

I see us beating them by at least 15 points, really looking forward to it.

I thought we were going to get blown away by South Africa in November and the match thread was all about minimising the nature of defeat and we did a solid number on them.

Yes we have injury worries and are away, but I think we should be fine and I expect a good win, not a margin like last year but I think the game will be over by 60m.

Buer

irishbucsfan wrote: »

You studied English in college?!

Jesus christ. The most awful boring evening I have ever spent on boards.ie was going through every one of GerM's posts unthanking all of them after finding out he was a northsider. Looks like I have another one of those nights ahead of me...

He was a decent skin! A bit serious but his heart was in the right place. I was actually in college with him, would you believe? :pac:

Hurray for arts degrees!

Call me a pessimist but Ireland are due an implosion. The amount of times I've gotten my hopes with for this national team just for them to be dashed. Add that to this disjoitned team. I'm wary

Buer

I think it will be a hugely physical and scrappy game. This is the first game of the 6N and Italy are at home.

Lets look at their results in opening weekend:

2014: Lost 23-15 to Wales in Cardiff
2013: Beat France 23-18 in Rome
2012: Lost 30-12 to France in Paris (France pulled away in second half after one score game at the break).
2011: Lost 13-11 to Ireland in Rome

They come out of the traps flying in recent years and aren't pushed around by anyone. We're missing 3 of our top players in Sexton, Healy and Sexton and are possibly fielding two important guys who are some way off full match fitness in SOB and Murray.

I think we're looking at a very tight game entering the second half and then experience and fitness taking us home by in or around the 10 point spread.

The only quibble I would have with selection is at tighthead. Unless the challenger is outperforming the incumbent in all the main facets of their role, give me the experienced campaigner any day. The one place I see this as the case now is Moore and Ross. Moore has performed more solidly in the scrum. He brings more physicality in the tackle. He gets around the field just as well and probably better. While I'm happy for Ross given how he persevered with the game and took the road less travelled, I would almost certainly be looking at Marty Moore for this clash.

redmca2

Buer wrote: »

We're missing 3 of our top players in Sexton, Healy and Sexton

I know Sexton is good but playing both No 8 and No 10 is some feat !!:D

irishbucsfan

redmca2 wrote: »

I know Sexton is good but playing both No 8 and No 10 is some feat !!:D

He was clearly referring to Tom Sexton!

Swiwi.

For me there are 2 players under the most pressure to perform: Payne & Ross. No matter how well Keatley & Murphy play, they are not going to hold out Sexton & Heaslip. Listening to Schmidt yesterday, it is clear that the midfield combination is by no means secure, and somewhat under trial. He name-checked Cave & Fitzgerald, and also mentioned Earls & Darcy. If Payne doesn't perform well enough at 13, he is then looking at a bench spot at best, as I don't think he is currently better than Kearney at 15, and Jones has probably been playing better at 15 too. If Ross doesn't start, he really isn't a great bench option, and if goes poorly, or at least not well enough, the public will largely go along with the promotion of Moore.