Boyhood is now at some of the tightest betting odds ever. Do you gamble on Oscars?

IvaBigWun

Boyhood is now at 8/13 on Paddy Power which are very, very tight odds indeed, even by frugal PP standards.

The odds were even shorter last week, apparently to the point where it was thought some UK bookies will start paying out on Boyhood already as there is obviously a leak somewhere at Oscar HQ.

At the other side of things The Theory Of Everything is at a very long 100/1 and I just have this hunch it could be the biggest upset win since Crash took the gold. Might be worth a tenner for the craic.

Im not normally a gambler but I think when you do your research on things like this and you only bet 20 quid max then it can be a bit of fun.

Do you have a flutter on the Oscars and what success or otherwise have you had?

The full PP Oscar market is here http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/hollywood/oscars

IvaBigWun

Latest odds. Birdman is now favourite! Did it pick up a major award I missed?



Birdman - 4/6

Boyhood - 6/5

The Imitation Game - 40/1

American Sniper -40/1

The Grand Budapest Hotel - 40/1

Whiplash - 100/1

Theory of Everything - 100/1

Selma - 100/1

Irish Aris

IvaBigWun wrote: »

Latest odds. Birdman is now favourite! Did it pick up a major award I missed?



B

It won best director and, I think, best film from the producers' association.

Pierce_1991

I usually have a couple of bets on the oscars but I figured Boyhood was a lock for best pic so didn't touch it, surprised Birdman is now favourite (especially considering Whiplash should win it )

Two bets I have had this year were Eddie Redmayne for Best Actor at around even money and How To Train Your Dragon 2 for Best Animated Pic at 8/13.

The Princess Bride

I'm not a gambler, but was 100% convinced that Crash would win the year it did.

As for Boyhood, I can't see it not winning, by virtue of the fact it was filmed over 12 years, etc...
I think it's a good film, not necessarily the best Oscar contender ever.
But it's what it represents, surely, that'll warrant it winning.

happysunnydays

American Sniper & Grand Budapest are both up for best film?!?! Seriously ?
Birdman is a stretch and a half ahead of those two....and the Whiplash, getting massive reviews (which I go see next week) is out there past Pluto along with a bunch of also rans.

I don't normally bet but put a fair bit on DDL to win best actor for There Will be Blood. 1/2 I think it was. Came in nicely.

pwurple

I'd be confident that Boyhood will get it, just because the way these things work. Size of effort in making film (actor loosing loads of weight etc) seems to be worth more than whatever other criteria they use.

Watched boyhood, didn't think much of it myself, but because it was difficult to make over that length of time... probably.

Deco99

Matthew McConnaughy Best Actor, Got him at 5/2. Picking up cash off the floor.

Boyhood should win, but Birdman is about an actor so the people voting may relate to it.

ricero

Can you only do singles bets in paddy powers for the Oscars or can you do accumalators. Thinking of doing boyhood double for best film and director and throw in redmayne for best actor

Deco99

ricero wrote: »

Can you only do singles bets in paddy powers for the Oscars or can you do accumalators. Thinking of doing boyhood double for best film and director and throw in redmayne for best actor

Singles, its a novelty market so 25 quid max bet and singles

Pierce_1991

ricero wrote: »

Can you only do singles bets in paddy powers for the Oscars or can you do accumalators. Thinking of doing boyhood double for best film and director and throw in redmayne for best actor

Yeah singles only. Always annoyed me. Be a bit of fun to have a 5 way accum on the acting categories and best pic.

IvaBigWun

ricero wrote: »

Can you only do singles bets in paddy powers for the Oscars or can you do accumalators. Thinking of doing boyhood double for best film and director and throw in redmayne for best actor

They are offering some combination bets but considering what has to happen to win the odds are ridiculous. I havent checked other markets but safe to say PP are always the tightest and should be used for just a cursory look.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/hollywood/oscars?ev_oc_grp_ids=2000204

Pierce_1991

IvaBigWun wrote: »

They are offering some combination bets but considering what has to happen to win the odds are ridiculous. I havent checked other markets but safe to say PP are always the tightest and should be used for just a cursory look.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/hollywood/oscars?ev_oc_grp_ids=2000204

11/4 on Boyhood, Linklater, Redmayne and Moore ain't bad

IvaBigWun

Pierce_1991 wrote: »

11/4 on Boyhood, Linklater, Redmayne and Moore ain't bad

Thats about 3/1 isnt it? If Boyhood wins then Linklater almost certainly will too. Redmayne is an almost definite. Just not sure about Moore. Its relying on the results of four awards for very crap odds tbh.

Whiplash is now at 125/1 with some bookies. Worth a cheeky tenner surely?

efb

American Sniper was USA USA! Propaganda trash

Pierce_1991

I really enjoyed American Sniper.

FortuneChip

Boyhood was as short as 1/20 until Birdman won the Producers Guild.

For the last four years I've been placing one bet a year (as early as possible) without a single loser... until now.

This year I placed two bets, Boyhood at 16/1 back in July (still haven't seen it) and Rosamund Pike for Best Actress at 12/1 and I'm 100% sure they're both gonna be losers now whereas before the PGA I was fully convinced Boyhood was in the bag.

The stats are really in Birdman's favour unfortunately.

If there is to be a big surprise I think it would be Keaton beating Redmayne

FortuneChip

The Princess Bride wrote: »

As for Boyhood, I can't see it not winning, by virtue of the fact it was filmed over 12 years, etc...
I think it's a good film, not necessarily the best Oscar contender ever.
But it's what it represents, surely, that'll warrant it winning.

My exact reasoning for backing it blindly.
"gimmicks" for want of a better word can win awards, but Birdman is very unique in it's own right.

enda1

Boyhood was a poor film with uninspiring insipid performances and a plot that was as dry as could be... So it's a shoe in for the Oscars!

IvaBigWun

FortuneChip wrote: »

Boyhood at 16/1 back in July (still haven't seen it)

The stats are really in Birdman's favour unfortunately.

They were amazing odds to get Boyhood at and you still have a great chance of cleaning up. Why are people now swinging towards Birdman in the markets so much after it's recent win?

Is it a stats thing where x amount of films who won the Director's Guild award has gone onto win the Oscar? And why is this? Lots of the same voters?

FortuneChip

IvaBigWun wrote: »

They were amazing odds to get Boyhood at and you still have a great chance of cleaning up. Why are people now swinging towards Birdman in the markets so much after it's recent win?

Is it a stats thing where x amount of films who won the Director's Guild award has gone onto win the Oscar? And why is this? Lots of the same voters?

Back in July Interstellar, Unbroken and Foxcatcher were among the frontrunners, had I been even a week earlier I could have gotten Boyhood at 25's.

Yeah, the trends with the Directors, Producers and Actors guild have me concerned. I could realistically put money on Birdman now and guarantee a decent profit, but I'm more interested in the bragging rights.

Tipsy McSwagger

I hope Boyhoood doesn't win so I don't have to see that smug little shyte Mason spotting his garbage on stage. Birdman, Whiplash and especially Grand Budapest are all better films anyway.

Sad Professor

I'm expecting another split with Boyhood getting Best Picture and Birdman Best Director.

FortuneChip

Tipsy McSwagger wrote: »

I hope Boyhoood doesn't win so I don't have to see that smug little shyte Mason spotting his garbage on stage. Birdman, Whiplash and especially Grand Budapest are all better films anyway.

Booooooo!

Sad Professor wrote: »

I'm expecting another split with Boyhood getting Best Picture and Birdman Best Director.

I'll take that!

And if Santa thinks I've been really good this year, Rosamund Pike to pull off the most ridiculous upset in Oscar history!

AnonoBoy

Pierce_1991 wrote: »

Yeah singles only. Always annoyed me. Be a bit of fun to have a 5 way accum on the acting categories and best pic.

One year I predicted 7 out of 7 categories. I was raging when they all came in and Paddy Power hadn't let me put on an accumulator!

Padraig Mor

AnonoBoy wrote: »

One year I predicted 7 out of 7 categories. I was raging when they all came in and Paddy Power hadn't let me put on an accumulator!

Years ago, when Titanic came out I tried to bet on the Oscars but left it as they would only take bets on the main categories. I wanted to bet that it would win 11 Oscars (equalling the all time record) and specify the 11.

I was spot on! If they had taken the bet, I'd have made a fortune!

IvaBigWun

Whiplash and Theory Of Everything's odds have been halved now to 50/1 each on PP! I was planning on opening an account with them and placing 20 quid on each but the site is giving me hassle with Paypal.

If I awake later to find out either have won most of you will hear me screaming, regardless of where you live in Ireland

Edit; No wait, managed to get in. Im not a gambling man but this is worth a punt.

IvaBigWun

*closes Paddy Power account as quick as he opened it*

FloatingVoter

happysunnydays wrote: »

... the 'Birdman' came up trumps, sweeeeeeeet!:D
I mean c'mon, the easiest prediction that will ever grace the Oscars. A film about actors.......in a competition being voted by actors! Duh!

Except the entire Academy votes for best pic. Plenty of directors, producers and writers would happily shoot actors with guns instead of cameras.


Still glad that the best picture actually won best picture.

happysunnydays

... the 'Birdman' came up trumps, sweeeeeeeet!:D
I mean c'mon, the easiest prediction that will ever grace the Oscars. A film about actors.......in a competition being voted by actors! Duh!
I'll be having cream cake cherry on top with my coffee break this morn...thank you! ..because I can afford it now!

happysunnydays

FloatingVoter wrote: »

Except the entire Academy votes for best pic. Plenty of directors, producers and writers would happily shoot actors with guns instead of cameras.


Still glad that the best picture actually won best picture.

How did you post before me? Did You read my mind Mr. time traveller?

FloatingVoter

happysunnydays wrote: »

How did you post before me? Did You read my mind Mr. time traveller?

Yes, I'm just back from winning next weeks lotto.

happysunnydays

FloatingVoter wrote: »

Yes, I'm just back from winning next weeks lotto.

Nice return, I was about to turn it that way. Have a good day now