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Germany warns Greeks it won't be blackmailed in election

  • 05-01-2015 1:30pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,412 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Also it seems they are not that bothered anymore if Greece falls out of the euro.

    http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/germany-will-not-be-blackmailed-into-renegotiating-greek-rescue-1.2055194

    The Greeks want to elect a party opposed to the whole bailout on the 25th. But there will be no renegotiation and Germany is not in the mood to tolerate blackmail from a people and it's government it believes over decades was feckless in how it ran it's affairs. And there will be no more money for them.

    I hope the left parties do win in Greece later in the month so other PIIGS like Ireland can see the consequences of electing people with no real ideas or alternatives.

    The 25th of January could be the start of the disintegration of the eurozone. And once one is forced out the market targets the next weakest link until they are kicked out because no one will believe they can stay.


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,357 ✭✭✭Beano


    ...

    I hope the left parties do win in Greece later in the month so other PIIGS like Ireland can see the consequences of electing people with no real ideas or alternatives.

    agreed
    The 25th of January could be the start of the disintegration of the eurozone. And once one is forced out the market targets the next weakest link until they are kicked out because no one will believe they can stay.

    i dont think this is a road we want to go down. What if that weakest link ends up being us?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 954 ✭✭✭Highflyer13


    The Greeks situation is very different to ours. They contributed sweet fook all to Europe and their taxation systems are all over the place. They have done very little to rectify their economy and have missed a few bailout targets. They deserve the talking down they get off Europe. Meanwhile good old Ireland does everything right, we have admitted our faults, taken the medicine, showing the highest level of growth in Europe and still we get treated like sh!t by our European masters. Also more austerity is being imposed on us under the cover of ............ well I wont say it. I fear we will be made pay further for the debts of other nations since we seem to have quite a spineless political class.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 126 ✭✭Slot Machine


    our European masters

    The lizard people?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 470 ✭✭Mr.McLovin


    the germans should just declare war and get it over with


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,866 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    From what I've read, if that new Greek party is elected then they are going to ask for a large portion of their debt to be written off. Again.
    Beyond a joke at this stage, they should have removed themselves from the Euro and gone back to the Drachma and devalued the currency to make them competitive again when it all started kicking off.
    They are like small children who have been refused sweets so they stomp their feet and become sulky until they get what they want.
    They already have had a haircut on their debt and yet want more.... maybe the EU should just wipe it all clean for them and tell them to fook off out of the EU altogether.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,412 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    They shouldn't have been allowed in to the euro in the first place. The books were cooked to make it look like they passed the rules. They didn't. We see the result now for all for Europe.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,028 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    They shouldn't have been allowed in to the euro in the first place. The books were cooked to make it look like they passed the rules. They didn't. We see the result now for all for Europe.

    who helped them cook the books?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,866 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    who helped them cook the books?

    Exactly.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    Mr.McLovin wrote: »
    the germans should just declare war and get it over with


    Var ist so last century, ve haff found ozer vays mein pixie headed friend.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,866 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    Mr.McLovin wrote: »
    the germans should just declare war and get it over with

    They already own Europe... no war needed.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,328 ✭✭✭Magico Gonzalez


    bear1 wrote: »
    Exactly.

    Goldman Sachs, i thought that was a matter of record?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,975 ✭✭✭Connemara Farmer


    The 25th of January could be the start of the disintegration of the eurozone.

    This is getting as tired a line as an English red top rag headline before every world cup.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,318 ✭✭✭✭Menas


    Greece will become an even bigger basketcase of a country if they vote those loons in. But the greeks are sick of austerity and I suppose will vote for anyone who tells them they can improve things.

    That the trouble with democracy like.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,143 ✭✭✭flanzer


    Can someone tell me in plain terms what the difference is with Greece telling their European masters to fcuk off and Iceland telling the EU to fcuk off??

    Iceland seem to be doing alright for themselves now, considering the early turmoil of burning their bondholders


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,866 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    flanzer wrote: »
    Can someone tell me in plain terms what the difference is with Greece telling their European masters to fcuk off and Iceland telling the EU to fcuk off??

    Iceland seem to be doing alright for themselves now, considering the early turmoil of burning their bondholders

    Well for starters Iceland doesn't belong in the Eurozone and Iceland didn't tell the EU to fcuk off they only told the UK and the NL to ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    flanzer wrote: »
    Can someone tell me in plain terms what the difference is with Greece telling their European masters to fcuk off and Iceland telling the EU to fcuk off??

    Iceland seem to be doing alright for themselves now, considering the early turmoil of burning their bondholders


    Greece is presently in the euro, a eurozone country defaulting, has implications for all eurozone countries and its banking systems. Greece can't act unilaterally, ( nor could Ireland) , Iceland could. clubs are not all benefits, they have constraints too.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,370 ✭✭✭✭Son Of A Vidic


    who helped them cook the books?

    The same criminal scum who advised & fooled Lenihan into bailing out the gamblers Banks.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    flanzer wrote: »
    Can someone tell me in plain terms what the difference is with Greece telling their European masters to fcuk off and Iceland telling the EU to fcuk off??

    Iceland seem to be doing alright for themselves now, considering the early turmoil of burning their bondholders
    Greece are using the Euro as their currency, so when they leave the EU, they have to transition to a new local currency - this is an incredibly chaotic and destructive event, which will result in large-scale capital flight, and possibly economic sanctions since they will effectively be defaulting their debts by redenominating them.

    However, that's only destructive in the short/medium-term; staying in Europe means the long-term destruction of their economy/country/democracy effectively, and an exit means a lot of short/medium-term economic destruction, with a return to fully sovereign democracy and economic recovery down the line.

    They should have left Europe 5-7 years ago; if they leave now, and Ireland stays in Europe, it could easily happen that Greece may well fully recover within a decade, with Ireland still plodding along with economic stagnation (don't believe anyone who says we are 'recovering' - Europe is about to slip into deflation, and we're all fúcked then, as that means Japanese-style multiple lost decades).


    If this party gets voted in, Greece will finally be showing some balls. The economic policies forced upon them, have destroyed their country - and by exiting Europe, they can regain the control needed, to start the (long and slow) effort towards true recovery.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    The same criminal scum who advised & fooled Lenihan into bailing out the gamblers Banks.

    where goldman sachs involved in that !


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,143 ✭✭✭flanzer


    Greece are using the Euro as their currency, so when they leave the EU, they have to transition to a new local currency - this is an incredibly chaotic and destructive event, which will result in large-scale capital flight, and possibly economic sanctions since they will effectively be defaulting their debts by redenominating them.

    However, that's only destructive in the short/medium-term; staying in Europe means the long-term destruction of their economy/country/democracy effectively, and an exit means a lot of short/medium-term economic destruction, with a return to fully sovereign democracy and economic recovery down the line.

    They should have left Europe 5-7 years ago; if they leave now, and Ireland stays in Europe, it could easily happen that Greece may well fully recover within a decade, with Ireland still plodding along with economic stagnation (don't believe anyone who says we are 'recovering' - Europe is about to slip into deflation, and we're all fúcked then, as that means Japanese-style multiple lost decades).


    If this party gets voted in, Greece will finally be showing some balls. The economic policies forced upon them, have destroyed their country - and by exiting Europe, they can regain the control needed, to start the (long and slow) effort towards true recovery.

    That's what I'm looking for. Thanks for that

    GO GREECE! We're rooting ya!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    Greece are using the Euro as their currency, so when they leave the EU, they have to transition to a new local currency - this is an incredibly chaotic and destructive event, which will result in large-scale capital flight, and possibly economic sanctions since they will effectively be defaulting their debts by redenominating them.

    However, that's only destructive in the short/medium-term; staying in Europe means the long-term destruction of their economy/country/democracy effectively, and an exit means a lot of short/medium-term economic destruction, with a return to fully sovereign democracy and economic recovery down the line.

    They should have left Europe 5-7 years ago; if they leave now, and Ireland stays in Europe, it could easily happen that Greece may well fully recover within a decade, with Ireland still plodding along with economic stagnation (don't believe anyone who says we are 'recovering' - Europe is about to slip into deflation, and we're all fúcked then, as that means Japanese-style multiple lost decades).


    If this party gets voted in, Greece will finally be showing some balls. The economic policies forced upon them, have destroyed their country - and by exiting Europe, they can regain the control needed, to start the (long and slow) effort towards true recovery.


    Overly simplistic situation,

    Firstly leaving the euro, would mean that Greece's debt would mushroom as it would be denominated in Euros and have to be repaid in devalued Drachma, potentially bankrupting the state.

    The effect would cause massive capital flight and would undoubtably bankrupt several greek banks, causing widespread personal hardship for greeks.

    The situation in greece is much worse then Iceland.

    The meltdown would imperil banks in Europe, possibly leading to significant turmoil.

    Externbal credit would virtually dry up for Greece, leading possibly to decades of austerity.

    Greeces fundamental issue is it has a chaotic revenue collection system, and massively cooked the states books.

    IN comparison , Ireland is a wealthy country, and despite all the whinging, the lattes are still flying out the door in starbucks, and the property prices are climbing. The " poor mouth" is a common feature.

    Were it not for the transfer of bank debt to public debt, Ireland would never have experienced any issues, and the problems would have been dealt with by the ECB. As it was we committed self-immolation.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,088 ✭✭✭SpaceTime


    Iceland is also absolutely tiny. The scale of what went on there is vastly over estimated.
    Greece is 36 times bigger.

    County Cork is 200,000 people bigger than Iceland!

    Also they took a huge hit in their currency rates resulting in a loss of almost half their spending power.

    The big difference is Iceland's and Ireland's bubbles were largely just that - a big fat bubble built on top of and swamping small but very progressive, effective and modern economies.

    Greece was very poor before the bubble and the bubble was the economy.
    When it burst it caused total chaos where as here it caused us to tumble back to a fairly sustainable reality. It hurt but it didn't completely kill us.

    The situations aren't really comparable.

    Greece might also benefit big time from being a cheap tourism destination again, as would Southern Spain. Ireland wouldn't really have that benefit. We'd just drive down our purchasing power and find life suddently very miserable.

    I've been in Iceland, they've a recovery going on but they're a LOT poorer now and also because the population is so tiny 10,000 people emigrating to Scandinavia can totally change the UE figures. A lot of people also stopped looking for jobs and are retraining or no longer economically active too (housewives and househusbands etc)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    flanzer wrote: »
    That's what I'm looking for. Thanks for that

    GO GREECE! We're rooting ya!

    you mean the answer you wanted to hear or the real reality.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    BoatMad wrote: »
    Overly simplistic situation,

    Firstly leaving the euro, would mean that Greece's debt would mushroom as it would be denominated in Euros and have to be repaid in devalued Drachma, potentially bankrupting the state.

    The effect would cause massive capital flight and would undoubtably bankrupt several greek banks, causing widespread personal hardship for greeks.

    The situation in greece is much worse then Iceland.

    The meltdown would imperil banks in Europe, possibly leading to significant turmoil.

    Externbal credit would virtually dry up for Greece, leading possibly to decades of austerity.

    Greeces fundamental issue is it has a chaotic revenue collection system, and massively cooked the states books.

    IN comparison , Ireland is a wealthy country, and despite all the whinging, the lattes are still flying out the door in starbucks, and the property prices are climbing. The " poor mouth" is a common feature.

    Were it not for the transfer of bank debt to public debt, Ireland would never have experienced any issues, and the problems would have been dealt with by the ECB. As it was we committed self-immolation.
    No, Greece would redenominate its debts in 'New Drachma' - if they allowed their debts to stay denominated in Euro, you'd likely get Weimar-style hyperinflation, as they'd be forced to print-and-exchange once reserves of Euro ran out.

    Once Greece has its own currency, it has no need for external credit - though it does have a need for external trade.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,412 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    SpaceTime wrote: »
    I've been in Iceland, they've a recovery going on but they're a LOT poorer now and also because the population is so tiny 10,000 people emigrating to Scandinavia can totally change the UE figures. A lot of people also stopped looking for jobs and are retraining or no longer economically active too (housewives and househusbands etc)

    Don't forget Iceland's government has restricted market access for money and they only get it at punitive rates.

    Ireland currently pays just over 1% to borrow for 10 years. Iceland pays over 6% - loan shark territory basically. Iceland is busted and untrustworthy.

    You can't default without consequences. It's basically Argentina in the north Atlantic.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    flanzer wrote: »
    That's what I'm looking for. Thanks for that

    GO GREECE! We're rooting ya!
    An exit would still be an horrendously ugly event though - so what we aught to root for, is a softening of policies from Europe (especially Germany), which does not require any country exiting; very unlikely though, given Germany's policies thus far.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    You can't redenominate external debt and decide to pay back your creditors in coal rather than gold.

    Well, you can, but you will instantly find yourself without any coal or gold and nobody willing to give you any.

    The exit of Greece could return some stability and growth to the Eurozone in the medium-term.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    No, Greece would redenominate its debts in 'New Drachma' - if they allowed their debts to stay denominated in Euro, you'd likely get Weimar-style hyperinflation, as they'd be forced to print-and-exchange once reserves of Euro ran out.

    Once Greece has its own currency, it has no need for external credit - though it does have a need for external trade.


    Greece cannot demoninate existing bonds or loans in " new drachma" it has legal obligations to repay in euros.

    What it would then be faced with is default. That brings massive implications

    Greece needs access to the money markets , after a default it would find that hard to impossible , especially without eurozone support.

    NOt to mention the fallout effect in the eurozone generally,

    Nor does any party in greece really want to leave the Euro


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    An exit would still be an horrendously ugly event though - so what we aught to root for, is a softening of policies from Europe (especially Germany), which does not require any country exiting; very unlikely though, given Germany's policies thus far.


    The germans are living with QE, thats a start, then well see Eurobonds in time, ultimately the germans need the eurozone and they just have to grow up and start living with the cousins cooking garlic,.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    seamus wrote: »
    You can't redenominate external debt and decide to pay back your creditors in coal rather than gold.

    Well, you can, but you will instantly find yourself without any coal or gold and nobody willing to give you any.
    It's effectively the same as defaulting - no sane country would ever accept foreign-denominated debts as large as Greece's debt would be; that's a recipe for hyperinflation.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    Once Greece has its own currency, it has no need for external credit - though it does have a need for external trade.


    Thats exactly what the Weimar republic thought too..


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    BoatMad wrote: »
    Greece cannot demoninate existing bonds or loans in " new drachma" it has legal obligations to repay in euros.

    What it would then be faced with is default. That brings massive implications

    Greece needs access to the money markets , after a default it would find that hard to impossible , especially without eurozone support.

    NOt to mention the fallout effect in the eurozone generally,

    Nor does any party in greece really want to leave the Euro
    That's what I said in my original post: It's effectively a default.

    Of course exiting the EU will have massive implications - that's rather obvious. This is one of those implications.

    Nobody has said they're going to go for an exit either; this was answering a question from earlier.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,328 ✭✭✭Magico Gonzalez


    "it could easily happen that Greece may well fully recover within a decade"

    Really? Since you have just told us that Europe is about to enter into a period of deflation how does an isolated greek economy which has just cut itself off from the countries to which it exports goods to manage this little miracle? Principle export destinations for Greek goods are EU and US, that all ends when they leave the club as tariffs will make it costly. Greece already exports way less than is average for a country of it's GDP size, that is only going one way once EU market incentives are removed.

    How does Greece recover in a deflated Europe? Arguable they'll struggle even more than the rest.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    BoatMad wrote: »
    The germans are living with QE, thats a start, then well see Eurobonds in time, ultimately the germans need the eurozone and they just have to grow up and start living with the cousins cooking garlic,.
    We're not likely to see 'real' Eurobonds; probably something named Eurobonds, that the Germans have stapled down so tightly, that it will be ineffective at bringing recovery.

    Any hope of the Germans agreeing to sensible recovery policies, is - after 6-7 years of this - a pipe dream really; they don't show any signs of changing course.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    BoatMad wrote: »
    Thats exactly what the Weimar republic thought too..
    Hmm, it isn't? They were forced to repay war reparations under the Versailles Treaty, and France occupied and gutted their industry in the Rhineland - severely impacting their industrial capacity.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    We're not likely to see 'real' Eurobonds; probably something named Eurobonds, that the Germans have stapled down so tightly, that it will be ineffective at bringing recovery.

    Any hope of the Germans agreeing to sensible recovery policies, is - after 6-7 years of this - a pipe dream really; they don't show any signs of changing course.


    I dont agree, if you look at the position of the germans today, its far removed from the no no no , even when ireland was in trouble.

    slowly slowly cachchy monkey, thats how its done, The german economy is going into a period of retrenchment, nothing like needing bit of help yourself to make you see the light


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    "it could easily happen that Greece may well fully recover within a decade"

    Really? Since you have just told us that Europe is about to enter into a period of deflation how does an isolated greek economy which has just cut itself off from the countries to which it exports goods to manage this little miracle? Principle export destinations for Greek goods are EU and US, that all ends when they leave the club as tariffs will make it costly. Greece already exports way less than is average for a country of it's GDP size, that is only going one way once EU market incentives are removed.

    How does Greece recover in a deflated Europe? Arguable they'll struggle even more than the rest.
    By not being in the Euro (the Euro is what will lock us into deflation). Once Greece have their own currency, they can easily avoid deflation.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,328 ✭✭✭Magico Gonzalez


    We're not likely to see 'real' Eurobonds; probably something named Eurobonds, that the Germans have stapled down so tightly, that it will be ineffective at bringing recovery.

    Any hope of the Germans agreeing to sensible recovery policies, is - after 6-7 years of this - a pipe dream really; they don't show any signs of changing course.

    Probably true, Germany has it's own internal populists to appease. Long term solutions are required, but without european political union it's not going to be possible for any German chancellor to do the necessary.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    Hmm, it isn't? They were forced to repay war reparations under the Versailles Treaty, and France occupied and gutted their industry in the Rhineland - severely impacting their industrial capacity.

    The post first war german government, decided to pay for the war costs by borrowing, (* unlike the French , which imposed its first ever income tax) so they removed themselves from the gold standard and started printing money ( like was suggested for the greece, i.e. don't need external currency) .

    Furthermore the also had to repay external debt in the increasingly devalued mark , which required even more printing of money. we know what the outcome was of all that.

    fiat currencies are built on trust, once you remove that they are literally not worth the paper they are printed on.

    greece would find this out horrifying fast


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    By not being in the Euro (the Euro is what will lock us into deflation). Once Greece have their own currency, they can easily avoid deflation.

    indeed, deflation will not be an issue at all, rampant unrestrained inflation however will destroy the earning power and savings ( whats left) of its population, subject it to penal interest rates and destroy what remaining standard of living exists.

    Returning greece to the 50s and relying on Ryanair to rescue their economy is rather facile.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,761 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Goldman Sachs, i thought that was a matter of record?

    Yes, otherwise known as the "great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money."


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,328 ✭✭✭Magico Gonzalez


    By not being in the Euro (the Euro is what will lock us into deflation). Once Greece have their own currency, they can easily avoid deflation.


    Greece will:

    1. Have no access to money markets for borrowing (unless the repay in Euros)

    2. Face collapsing exports to EU principally. Tariffs, issue with outstanding Euro debts not paid = reptutational damage. Classic symtpon of populism, they'll try and artificially create an internal market and reduce imports, exports can only go out if they replicate the internal market price (or more) otherwise any exporter with a brain will export out for hard currency.

    3. By your own criteria have it's major export destination in a deflated state, result? Less exports.

    So, exports down. Import restrictions, massive issues in accessing money markets. The Greek economy is currently running on loans, once we remove those loans were does the money come from? Internal market??

    They can probably avoid deflation. Their reward for that will probably be unmanageable inflation, huge budget deficits, public sector pension and salary crisis and a collapse in production / manufacturing due to extremely unfavourable export conditions.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    BoatMad wrote: »
    The post first war german government, decided to pay for the war costs by borrowing, (* unlike the French , which imposed its first ever income tax) so they removed themselves from the gold standard and started printing money ( like was suggested for the greece, i.e. don't need external currency) .

    Furthermore the also had to repay external debt in the increasingly devalued mark , which required even more printing of money. we know what the outcome was of all that.

    fiat currencies are built on trust, once you remove that they are literally not worth the paper they are printed on.

    greece would find this out horrifying fast
    No, they ran out of reserves of the currency they needed to pay reparations in, and were forced into printing-and-exchanging for that currency; that's why you don't want foreign-denominated debts (if you run out of reserves of foreign currency, you must default or risk print-and-exchange hyperinflation).

    Fiat currencies are grounded in taxes, not trust - you have to pay taxes in whatever currency the government demands, and if they demand you pay it in New Drachma, that's going to underpin the demand for that currency.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    BoatMad wrote: »
    indeed, deflation will not be an issue at all, rampant unrestrained inflation however will destroy the earning power and savings ( whats left) of its population, subject it to penal interest rates and destroy what remaining standard of living exists.

    Returning greece to the 50s and relying on Ryanair to rescue their economy is rather facile.
    If they exit the Euro, the transition to New Drachma will be very very ugly, sure - though whether it will look like that, isn't known; there'll be huge short/medium-term damage, which is the tradeoff needed if they want eventual recovery in the long-term.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    Greece will:

    1. Have no access to money markets for borrowing (unless the repay in Euros)

    2. Face collapsing exports to EU principally. Tariffs, issue with outstanding Euro debts not paid = reptutational damage. Classic symtpon of populism, they'll try and artificially create an internal market and reduce imports, exports can only go out if they replicate the internal market price (or more) otherwise any exporter with a brain will export out for hard currency.

    3. By your own criteria have it's major export destination in a deflated state, result? Less exports.

    So, exports down. Import restrictions, massive issues in accessing money markets. The Greek economy is currently running on loans, once we remove those loans were does the money come from? Internal market??

    They can probably avoid deflation. Their reward for that will probably be unmanageable inflation, huge budget deficits, public sector pension and salary crisis and a collapse in production / manufacturing due to extremely unfavourable export conditions.
    They won't need to borrow - who in the external markets is going to be lending them New Drachma's anyway, once the currency is newly established?

    If they exit - again, the short/medium-term results on trade and economic output are going to be hugely damaging - no dispute there. What form that will take exactly, is not known.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 200 ✭✭Slozer


    if Greece defaults it does not automatically mean that they will drop the euro. Having no debt and a strong currency would surly put the Greeks in a better position. Converting their currency to drachma would be a nail in the coffin as it could easily be manipulated both internally and externally.

    If the Greeks default it would be totally up to them as to which currency to adopt and if they choose to stay with the euro I don't see how the rest of europe can do anything about it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    No, they ran out of reserves of the currency they needed to pay reparations in, and were forced into printing-and-exchanging for that currency; that's why you don't want foreign-denominated debts (if you run out of reserves of foreign currency, you must default or risk print-and-exchange hyperinflation).

    Fiat currencies are grounded in taxes, not trust - you have to pay taxes in whatever currency the government demands, and if they demand you pay it in New Drachma, that's going to underpin the demand for that currency.

    Sorry your historical knowledge is faulty. read John Maynard Keynes ,"The Economic Consequences of the Peace" Despite many warnings from experts the German government decided to finance its debts from almost exclusively borrowings ( much like the greeks) rather the increases taxes. In doing so it removed the gold standard and started printing money ( just like QE is doing now). The external trust in the currency collapsed and the economy was subject to hyper inflation and initially responded by printing more money.

    IN the end the gov had to abandon the old mark, revalue a new currency ( the Renten mark) and tie it to the US dollar, ( and to promise to prepay its debts in the new higher value currency). It then effectively defaulted on its own people by subjecting them to a 25% valuation in their existing marks.

    fiat currencies are based on a complex balance between supply and demand for that currency, print too much and like all surpluses it devalues, restrict it and it becomes more valuable. It has nothing to do with taxes per say see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_money


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    Slozer wrote: »
    if Greece defaults it does not automatically mean that they will drop the euro. Having no debt and a strong currency would surly put the Greeks in a better position. Converting their currency to drachma would be a nail in the coffin as it could easily be manipulated both internally and externally.

    If the Greeks default it would be totally up to them as to which currency to adopt and if they choose to stay with the euro I don't see how the rest of europe can do anything about it.


    The ECB effectively controls the money supply in the Eurozone, A greek default and remaining in the Euro, would most likely be similar to might have happened in Irelands cases, had it not issued the guarantee.

    The fact is that the effect would ripple through the eurozone, killing banks , especially german banks as it went. Greek default would also be sovereign default since the money it has been lent, was lent to the state.

    The net effect would be an incredible reduction in ECB funding to Greece. Greece's money supply would dry up and almost certainly the next effect would be to force them out of the Euro anyway, with a then replaying of that scenario.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 560 ✭✭✭Philo Beddoe


    So far this has been a fascinating thread, with very little of the usual over the top rhetoric which these kind of discussions so often descend into on AH. What's going on?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,391 ✭✭✭✭mikom


    So far this has been a fascinating thread, with very little of the usual over the top rhetoric which these kind of discussions so often descend into on AH. What's going on?

    Hitler.


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