Champions Cup permutations 2014/15 after Round 4

thomond2006

2.3 The five pool winners and three best-placed runners-up will qualify for the quarter-finals and will be decided as follows:
(a) The pool winner will be the club with the highest number of match points in each pool. The best-placed runners-up will be the three clubs with the highest number of match points out of the five clubs that finish second in their respective pools. For the quarter-finals, the pool winners will be ranked 1 to 5 and the best-placed runners-up 6 and 8 by reference to the number of match points earned.

(b) If two or more clubs in the same pool are equal on match points, their ranking will be determined by the matches played between the relevant clubs as follows:
(i) the club with the greater number of match points from those matches; or
(ii) if equal, the club with the best aggregate points difference from those matches; or
(iii) if equal, the club that scored the most tries in those matches.

(c) If ranking remains unresolved and/or if clubs have not played each other previously in the pool stage, ranking will be determined as follows:
(i) the best aggregate points difference from the pool stage; or
(ii) if equal, the number of tries scored in the pool stage; or
(iii) if equal, the club with the fewest number of players suspended for incidents in the pool stage; or
(iv) if equal, by drawing lots.

http://www.epcrugby.com/europeanrugbychampionscup/rules.php

Team denotes a impossible or highly unlikely to qualify for the Heineken Cup knockouts.

(#) denotes the points difference, the rules above indicate that points difference is the first differential used to separate teams from different pools that have the same points.

Pool 1:
Clermont 14 (+39)
Saracens 13 (+13)
Munster 10 (-2)
Sale 2 (-50)

Sale vs Clermont
Saracens vs Munster

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Munster vs Sale
Clermont vs Saracens

Clermont will win both remaining matches but probably without bonus points, so I put them topping the pool with 22 points. Saracens not getting any bonus points against Sale means that Saracens vs Munster in Round 5 is a straight shoot out for second place and a likely qualification. At this stage Saracens are marginal favourites at Allianz Park but the result at Clermont, although gifted by Fritz Lee, will give Munster a big boost of confidence.

Pool 2:
Harlequins 13 (28)
Leinster 13 (5)
Wasps 12 (30)
Castres 1 (-63)

Harlequins vs Wasps
Leinster vs Castres

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Wasps vs Leinster
Castres vs Harlequins

Castres will roll over at Leinster in Round 5 which should put them on 18 points. Harlequins won away to Wasps so they will be fancied to win again at home. If Quins win and deny Wasps a LBP then Wasps are eliminated. However with Leinster's current struggles Wasps may fancy a win and will certainly not lack for motivation as they try to entice new fans to the Ricoh Arena. Leinster to grind out a LBP and finish on 20 points. Quins to top the group with 21 points.

Pool 3:
Toulon 13 (31)
Scarlets 8 (-4)
Leicester 8 (-16)
Ulster 6 (-11)

Leicester vs Scarlets
Toulon vs Ulster

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Ulster vs Leicester
Scarlets vs Toulon

Toulon look as strong as ever and given Ulster's loss against Scarlets Pool 3 will likely have one qualifier. Toulon to gain 9 points from their remaining two matches to finish on 22 points. Scarlets and Leicester will need bonus point wins to qualify but neither are likely to gain them.

Pool 4:
Toulouse 16 (+20)
Glasgow 10 (+18)
Bath 10 (+16)
Montpellier 2 (-54)

Glasgow vs Montpellier
Toulouse vs Bath

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Bath vs Glasgow
Montpellier vs Toulouse

Pool 4 is unlikely to have two qualifiers. Glasgow will get a BP win against a second string Montpellier team but lose at Bath. Toulouse to win both remaining matches and will probably get one bonus point. Toulouse to top the pool on 25 points.

Pool 5:
N Saints 15 (+109)
Racing M 14 (+29)
Ospreys 8 (+3)
B Treviso 0 (-141)

B Treviso vs Ospreys
N Saints vs Racing M

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Racing M vs B Treviso
Ospreys vs N Saints

Northampton have had a good season and should beat Racing in Round 5 and deny Racing an LBP. A likely TBP in Treviso will keep Ospreys in the hunt but Northampton will be favourites in the Liberty Stadium and I fancy them to win that. Racing will rout Treviso in Round 6. Saints to top the poll with 24 points.

The pools are a lot more competitive this year but as 3/5 second placed teams go through as opposed to 2/6 in previous seasons there won't be such a mad scramble to know the permutations!

SEEDING PREDICTION

1. Toulouse (25 points)
2. N Saints (24 points)
3. Toulon (22 points)
4. Clermont (22 points)
5. Harlequins (21 points)

---

6. Racing M (19 points)
7. Leinster (19 points)
8. Munster (19 points)

In the above case, here are the Quarter-Finals:

1 v 8: Toulouse vs Munster
2 v 7: N Saints vs Leinster
3 v 6: Toulon vs Racing Metro
4 v 5: Clermont vs Harlequins

I'm looking forward to reading your thoughts and please point out any obvious errors!

matthew8

Leinster would be on 19 with that projection.

Predicting individual games:
Sale 0-4 Clermont
Saracens 4-1 Munster
Quins 4-1 Wasps
Leinster 5-0 Castres
Leicester 5-0 Scarlets
Toulon 5-0 Ulster
Glasgow 5-0 Montpellier
Toulouse 4-0 Bath
Ospreys 1-4 Northampton
Metro 5-0 Treviso

Clermont 4-0 Saracens
Munster 5-0 Sale
Castres 0-5 Quins (don't actually think Quins get 4 tries here but think they'll manage 1 BP in the last 2 and thus top the pool)
Wasps 1-4 Leinster
Scarlets 0-4 Toulon
Ulster 4-1 Leicester
Bath 4-1 Glasgow
Montpellier 1-4 Toulouse
Treviso 0-4 Ospreys
Northampton 4-0 Racing

Leaving it:
1.Toulouse 24
2. Northampton 23
3=. Toulon 22
3=. Harlequins 22
3=. Clermont 22
6. Leinster 22
7. Metro 19
8. Saracens 17

That third runner up spot is a real dogfight. Toulon will need a TBP to get a home QF it seems.

thomond2006

matthew8 wrote: »

Leinster would be on 19 with that projection.

Thanks!

I can see them being seeded higher than Munster on points difference. I think Sale will send a stronger side than Castres and not rollover as easily.

Pudsy33

Toulon vs Leinster would be absolutely ****ing grim.

thomond2006

Pudsy33 wrote: »

Toulon vs Leinster would be absolutely ****ing grim.

It's my mistake. Leinster would have to get 7 points in their remaining two matches which is highly unlikely. A TBP with a draw is pretty rare.

awec

Leicester could easily get a BP win against us.

thomond2006

awec wrote: »

Leicester could easily get a BP win against us.

Now that you're out, do Ulster say to hell with this and do a Castres? That would change a lot.

Edit: Maybe not for the home match anyway vs Leicester. There would be a serious backlash!

errlloyd

Leinster could luck out here. If our pool is definitely going to be the "5th" placed group winner, than coming second in the pool could work out better than winning it.

Another element is which teams do we expect to get better between now and round 5, and which teams will get worse. Famous last words here, but I am hoping Wasps have peaked, and I am hoping they were flattered by Castre this weekend. Leinster on the other hand have a lot left to give. So while I'd worry if that was game was tomorrow, I am less worried than some players.

awec

thomond2006 wrote: »

Now that you're out, do Ulster say to hell with this and do a Castres? That would change a lot.

Edit: Maybe not for the home match anyway vs Leicester. There would be a serious backlash!

I'd say we'll field a decent team but it's hard to see where motivation would come from.

We're not exactly amazing in games that we have to win, don't see how we'll be great in a game that's dead rubber for us.

Whereas for Leicester it could be make or break. Honestly a BP isn't out of the question.

Swiwi.

Have the quarter-finals ever been devoid of an Irish presence? I wouldn't be betting my house on Leinster getting though with current form, and Munster having to win away at Saracens is not an easy victory either.

awec

Swiwi. wrote: »

Have the quarter-finals ever been devoid of an Irish presence? I wouldn't be betting my house on Leinster getting though with current form, and Munster having to win away at Saracens is not an easy victory either.

17 years ago is the last time there was no province in the knockouts.

Or so they said on BT (or maybe it was Sky).

Fireball07

I could see Glasgow beating Bath, which is the main obstacle in Munster's way (outside of Saracens).

I reckon we can beat Sarries though, especially if we have a full-strength squad.

Snickers Man

Good Game! Good Game!

Based on head ruling heart I suspect the quarter finals will be:

Northampton v Leinster
Toulouse v Glasgow
Clermont v Racing
Toulon v Harlequins

OK it rather depends on Bath being demoralised in their last home game to Glasgow but not beyond the bounds.

And Munster could beat Sarries away but miracles in Thomond are one thing; winning away against today's English moneybags is another.

Snickers Man

Swiwi. wrote: »

Have the quarter-finals ever been devoid of an Irish presence? I wouldn't be betting my house on Leinster getting though with current form, and Munster having to win away at Saracens is not an easy victory either.

You're not wrong about Leinster but the schedule is kind to them. If they beat CAstres at home next time out, and Harlequins beat Wasps (which they could well do) then a losing bonus away to Wasps in the last game would leave them in a good second place position.

Buer

Fireball07 wrote: »

I could see Glasgow beating Bath, which is the main obstacle in Munster's way (outside of Saracens).

I reckon we can beat Sarries though, especially if we have a full-strength squad.

I think you will. Saracens are not the team they were at all. Looking really out of sorts in the last couple of months. They're lacking all the intensity that made them contenders.

If Glasgow win in Bath, that's bad news for Munster as I reckon they'll cut Montpellier open with a BP win. Bath are flying now though so can't see it happening. They've won their last 5 on the trot.

It's all down to the Saracens game, though.

vienne86

Snickers Man wrote: »

Good Game! Good Game!

Based on head ruling heart I suspect the quarter finals will be:

Northampton v Leinster
Toulouse v Glasgow
Clermont v Racing
Toulon v Harlequins

OK it rather depends on Bath being demoralised in their last home game to Glasgow but not beyond the bounds.

And Munster could beat Sarries away but miracles in Thomond are one thing; winning away against today's English moneybags is another.

I don't see two teams coming out of the Toulouse pool or the Toulon pool. So I don't believe Glasgow will be there in the end. I think it iwll be Sarries, but the way Munster have been playing, that could change.

I think in the quarters it will be four French teams, three English and one Irish, just what the creators of this competition wanted!

matthew8

Bath haven't been perfect. Winning at home to Newcastle, away to Welsh, home to Harlequins and twice against a Montpellier side beaten before they walked onto the pitch is their 5 game winning streak, Glasgow can definitely win. They absolutely murdered them in the earlier pool game. 37-10 was a completely fair scoreline. I thought they were in better shape leading up to that game than they are now, after easily beating Leicester and Saracens and giving Northampton and Wasps good games away.

thomond2006

2.3 The five pool winners and three best-placed runners-up will qualify for the quarter-finals and will be decided as follows:
(a) The pool winner will be the club with the highest number of match points in each pool. The best-placed runners-up will be the three clubs with the highest number of match points out of the five clubs that finish second in their respective pools. For the quarter-finals, the pool winners will be ranked 1 to 5 and the best-placed runners-up 6 and 8 by reference to the number of match points earned.

(b) If two or more clubs in the same pool are equal on match points, their ranking will be determined by the matches played between the relevant clubs as follows:
(i) the club with the greater number of match points from those matches; or
(ii) if equal, the club with the best aggregate points difference from those matches; or
(iii) if equal, the club that scored the most tries in those matches.

(c) If ranking remains unresolved and/or if clubs have not played each other previously in the pool stage, ranking will be determined as follows:
(i) the best aggregate points difference from the pool stage; or
(ii) if equal, the number of tries scored in the pool stage; or
(iii) if equal, the club with the fewest number of players suspended for incidents in the pool stage; or
(iv) if equal, by drawing lots.

http://www.epcrugby.com/europeanrugb...scup/rules.php

Team denotes a impossible or highly unlikely to qualify for the Heineken Cup knockouts.

(#) denotes the points difference, the rules above indicate that points difference is the first differential used to separate teams from different pools that have the same points.

Pool 1:
Clermont 18 (+48)
Saracens 17 (+36)
Munster 10 (-25)
Sale 2 (-59)

---

Munster vs Sale
Clermont vs Saracens

Clermont should win but I can see Saracens picking up a LBP in a tight match.

Pool 2:
Leinster 18 (+47)
Wasps 16 (+50)
Harlequins 13 (+8)
Castres 1 (-105)

---

Wasps vs Leinster
Castres vs Harlequins

Wasps vs Leinster is a 50/50 call IMO. Wasps are like a new team since moving to Coventry, the big crowds at the Ricoh Arena have to be a morale boost for the whole organisation. I think Leinster will shade it though and be the only team to qualify from the pool.

Harlequins cannot score tries at the moment and were hopeless against Wasps. They should win against a hapless Castres side but won't get a necessary try bonus.

Pool 3:
Toulon 18 (+69)
Leicester 13 (+1)
Scarlets 8 (-21)
Ulster 7 (-49)

---

Ulster vs Leicester
Scarlets vs Toulon

Toulon are flying it but are more conservative away from home so I think Scarlets can hold them to a non-BP win.

Pool 4:
Toulouse 16 (+3)
Bath 15 (+33)
Glasgow 14 (+29)
Montpellier 2 (-65)

---

Bath vs Glasgow
Montpellier vs Toulouse

What a pool! Bath's shock BP win at Toulouse is a game changer for all the qualifiers. It's rare that you have a pool where three teams can top the table before the final weekend. Bath to get a BP win against Glasgow and despite their result today I think Toulouse will shade Montpellier. Bath to top the pool therefore on the head to head.

Pool 5:
Racing M 19 (+75)
N Saints 19 (+120)
Ospreys 8 (-8)
B Treviso 0 (-187)

---

B Treviso vs Ospreys
N Saints vs Racing M

Northampton to beat Racing and deny them a LBP.

SEEDING PREDICTION

1. N Saints (23 points)
2. Toulon (22 points)
3. Clermont (22 points)
4. Leinster (22 points)
5. Bath (20 points)

---

6. Toulouse (20 points)
7. Racing M (19 points)
8. Saracens (18 points)

In the above case, here are the Quarter-Finals:

1 v 8: N Saints vs Saracens
2 v 7: Toulon vs Racing Metro
3 v 6: Clermont vs Toulouse
4 v 5: Leinster vs Bath

vienne86

thomond2006 wrote: »

http://www.epcrugby.com/europeanrugb...scup/rules.php

Team denotes a impossible or highly unlikely to qualify for the Heineken Cup knockouts.

(#) denotes the points difference, the rules above indicate that points difference is the first differential used to separate teams from different pools that have the same points.

Pool 1:
Clermont 18 (+48)
Saracens 17 (+36)
Munster 10 (-25)
Sale 2 (-59)

---

Munster vs Sale
Clermont vs Saracens

Clermont should win but I can see Saracens picking up a LBP in a tight match.

Pool 2:
Leinster 18 (+47)
Wasps 16 (+50)
Harlequins 13 (+8)
Castres 1 (-105)

---

Wasps vs Leinster
Castres vs Harlequins

Wasps vs Leinster is a 50/50 call IMO. Wasps are like a new team since moving to Coventry, the big crowds at the Ricoh Arena have to be a morale boost for the whole organisation. I think Leinster will shade it though and be the only team to qualify from the pool.

Harlequins cannot score tries at the moment and were hopeless against Wasps. They should win against a hapless Castres side but won't get a necessary try bonus.

Pool 3:
Toulon 18 (+69)
Leicester 13 (+1)
Scarlets 8 (-21)
Ulster 7 (-49)

---

Ulster vs Leicester
Scarlets vs Toulon

Toulon are flying it but are more conservative away from home so I think Scarlets can hold them to a non-BP win.

Pool 4:
Toulouse 16 (+3)
Bath 15 (+33)
Glasgow 14 (+29)
Montpellier 2 (-65)

---

Bath vs Glasgow
Montpellier vs Toulouse

What a pool! Bath's shock BP win at Toulouse is a game changer for all the qualifiers. It's rare that you have a pool where three teams can top the table before the final weekend. Bath to get a BP win against Glasgow and despite their result today I think Toulouse will shade Montpellier. Bath to top the pool therefore on the head to head.

Pool 5:
Racing M 19 (+75)
N Saints 19 (+120)
Ospreys 8 (-8)
B Treviso 0 (-187)

---

B Treviso vs Ospreys
N Saints vs Racing M

Northampton to beat Racing and deny them a LBP.

SEEDING PREDICTION

1. N Saints (23 points)
2. Toulon (22 points)
3. Clermont (22 points)
4. Leinster (22 points)
5. Bath (20 points)

---

6. Toulouse (20 points)
7. Racing M (19 points)
8. Saracens (18 points)

In the above case, here are the Quarter-Finals:

1 v 8: N Saints vs Saracens
2 v 7: Toulon vs Racing Metro
3 v 6: Clermont vs Toulouse
4 v 5: Leinster vs Bath

As a Leinster fan, I'd love this to be the way it finishes up. No travel nightmares for fans here either.

Snickers Man

Snickers Man wrote: »

Good Game! Good Game!

Based on head ruling heart I suspect the quarter finals will be:

Northampton v Leinster
Toulouse v Glasgow
Clermont v Racing
Toulon v Harlequins

OK. I will have to revise this given some unexpected (by me) results. Like Bath and Wasps winning away at Toulouse and Harlequins respectively. Also Glasgow shot themselves in the foot by failing to get a bonus point against Montpelier but given that Bath have played themselves right back into contention that would have been a moot point anyway. Don't expect Glasgow to have a prayer away to Bath now.

So my new revised lineup is

Northampton v Leinster
Toulon v Toulouse
Clermont Auvergne v Racing Metro
Wasps v Bath

Am really hoping that Leinster can prove me wrong by winning at Wasps (in Coventroy!!) and getting a home draw.

thelad95

Amazing how one TBP performance can be so important in a competition like this. Leinster are likely to finish as top seed now should they beat Wasps.

Sad that only Leinster have a chance to make the quarters. Stark contrast to last year

total former

thelad95 wrote: »

Amazing how one TBP performance can be so important in a competition like this. Leinster are likely to finish as top seed now should they beat Wasps.

Top ranked seed? Very unlikely, would require a draw between Saints and Racing.

total former

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Sad that only Leinster have made the quarters. Stark contrast to last year

We haven't made anything yet. We could still very easily finish third in the group.

thelad95

total former wrote: »

Top ranked seed? Very unlikely, would require a draw between Saints and Racing.

Apologies, thought Saints were on 18 as well.

.ak

Deleted User wrote: »

Sad that only Leinster have a chance to make the quarters. Stark contrast to last year

We did get a handy group in fairness. Although having said that it hasn't worked out as well as we thought. Instead of having a group with a major seed like Toulon or Sarries we got a group of 3 other very competent teams, whilst all are beatable there isn't many tbp to go around.

matthew8

Tbh I think the only side worse than Castres in the comp have been Treviso. Sale and Ulster/Scarlets have been better while Montpellier have had a similar time in their pool and might be putting up resistance in the last 2 rounds. Harlequins and Wasps have been competitive but I couldn't see Leinster doing any better in another pool unless they replaced Northampton in their pool.

vienne86

matthew8 wrote: »

Tbh I think the only side worse than Castres in the comp have been Treviso. Sale and Ulster/Scarlets have been better while Montpellier have had a similar time in their pool and might be putting up resistance in the last 2 rounds. Harlequins and Wasps have been competitive but I couldn't see Leinster doing any better in another pool unless they replaced Northampton in their pool.

It's been a handy pool for Leinster, and I think we acknowledged that from the start. Mind you, we've had some pretty rough pools in the not too distant past.

Only one team is definitely qualified for the knock-outs fafter round 5 (Toulon) - this format has made the competition very tight. A couple of days ago, I would have put Toulouse as likely top of the points table after six rounds, and now I am not even sure they will qualify. That was a mighty win for Bath today....I had written them off completely. In three of the pools we have winner-takes-all matches coming up. And I'm sure we will have some surprises again next weekend.....it's great!

errlloyd

When was the last time that no teams from one league got into the quarters.

IE if Leinster don't make it, then no Pro12 teams will have made it.


EDIT: Never, bar the season of the boycott. 2009 was close, Toulose the only french team as a runner up.

total former

total former wrote: »

We haven't made anything yet. We could still very easily finish third in the group.

You managed to quote that before I fixed that error