Sinn Fein and the huge cuts in NI

NIMAN

How will Sinn Fein, being an All Ireland party, be able to defend the massive cuts coming in NI whilst they continue their anti-water charges, anti-household charge, anti-USC .... etc stance in RoI?

The NI budget cut is rumoured to be between €880 million - €1.1 billion. That's a huge amount to take out of the NI economy.

BoJack Horseman

NIMAN wrote: »

How will Sinn Fein, being an All Ireland party, be able to defend the massive cuts coming in NI whilst they continue their anti-water charges, anti-household charge, anti-USC .... etc stance in RoI?

The NI budget cut is rumoured to be between €880 million - €1.1 billion. That's a huge amount to take out of the NI economy.

Well, its money from the mainland, so its not being removed from the NI economy as such..... It just won't reach the NI economy in the first place

It still leaves close to €14bn gifted from sugar-daddy George Osbourne, so it isn't too bad.

NIMAN

But the people of NI will feel the pain of it not arriving, thats for sure.

BoJack Horseman

True.

However it is manageable.

Its comparable to the annual reduction in public expenditure experienced in Ireland.
The NI executive should be able to manage it.

Personally I don't think its a double standard.
If the sugar from Downing Street is reduced, its not because the parties there asked for it.

Rightwing

NIMAN wrote: »

How will Sinn Fein, being an All Ireland party, be able to defend the massive cuts coming in NI whilst they continue their anti-water charges, anti-household charge, anti-USC .... etc stance in RoI?

The NI budget cut is rumoured to be between €880 million - €1.1 billion. That's a huge amount to take out of the NI economy.

They won't defend the cuts. They'll say they should be given more cash.

eire4

NIMAN wrote: »

How will Sinn Fein, being an All Ireland party, be able to defend the massive cuts coming in NI whilst they continue their anti-water charges, anti-household charge, anti-USC .... etc stance in RoI?

The NI budget cut is rumoured to be between €880 million - €1.1 billion. That's a huge amount to take out of the NI economy.

To be fair it is not money being taken out of that economy as the Stormont economy is only kept afloat due to large subsidies from London.

ardmacha

Sinn Féin don't "do" economics.

jank

They will defend it by doing what they do best. Lying.

maccored

another get them shinners and we'll make up stuff thread? very good. by the by - SF and the DUP (dont forget them now) can only juggle whatever money Westminster gives them. they don't create the cuts. but sure - as usual - lets ignore reality shall we and continue with this bull****.

BoJack Horseman

maccored wrote: »

another get them shinners and we'll make up stuff thread?

Its been keeping you very busy of late no doubt!

raymon

maccored wrote: »

another get them shinners and we'll make up stuff thread? very good. by the by - SF and the DUP (dont forget them now) can only juggle whatever money Westminster gives them. they don't create the cuts. but sure - as usual - lets ignore reality shall we and continue with this bull****.

Whatabout Westminster . Whatabout DUP.


Here we go again !

doopa

NIMAN wrote: »

How will Sinn Fein, being an All Ireland party, be able to defend the massive cuts coming in NI whilst they continue their anti-water charges, anti-household charge, anti-USC .... etc stance in RoI?

The NI budget cut is rumoured to be between €880 million - €1.1 billion. That's a huge amount to take out of the NI economy.

I dunno - maybe they will make some argument along the lines of 'the economy of NI is economically unsustainable without a massive subsidy from the rUK so perhaps it should just join up with the economy it happens to share a land border and a significant amount of trade with'.

And define how they have 'defended' the cuts. They have consistency argued against the cuts called them an "ideologically driven assault on the welfare state". Perhaps you have some quotes that you can point to that show Sinn Fein defending the Tory party cuts.

* I feel obliged given the forum to add a disclaimer that I am not a shinner, but hey let's not let the facts get in the way of a good shinner bashing thread. *

BoJack Horseman

doopa wrote: »

I dunno - maybe they will make some argument along the lines of 'the economy of NI is economically unsustainable without a massive subsidy from the rUK so perhaps it should just join up with the economy it happens to share a land border and a significant amount of trade with'.

They can make the argument..... Its nuts though.

Ireland doesn't have the €14-15bn needed annually to keep NI running.

eire4

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

They can make the argument..... Its nuts though.

Ireland doesn't have the €14-15bn needed annually to keep NI running.

The subsidy which London pays Stormont to keep it afloat was about 11B in 2012.The economy is a false one at its current level given these massive London subsidies so at some point some hard decisions are going to have to be made and that has nothing to do with Sinn Fein doing a good or not so good job.

doopa

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

They can make the argument..... Its nuts though.

Ireland doesn't have the €14-15bn needed annually to keep NI running.

I think their argument is that it wouldn't require the subsidy once unification happens.

BoJack Horseman

doopa wrote: »

I think their argument is that it wouldn't require the subsidy once unification happens.

Have they ever made that argument?

I'd love to see it.

If the Shinners think joining that little failed statelet to Ireland is going to reduce the costs of same statelet by 1/3 (all of a sudden) then they really are on a different planet.

And that's before they would burden us with the NI share of the UK national debt.
What's €15bn x 30-40 years?

No thanks.

fly_agaric

IF they work within budget set and implement cuts/raise charges etc we can say they are "hypocrits" (on account of the party's anti austerity message in the south).

IF they try to avoid cuts in north and precipitate funding crisis for NI executive we can say they are "economic illiterates" and unfit to be given controls in the Republic

(which has always been run in a prudent fashion by "Fianna Gael" when it comes to the budget - eg. the wise maxim of "when I have it I will spend it" (on the lobby group who shouts loudest if there is election coming).

Win-Win situation for "bashing" SF so I'm sure it'll be aired constantly until next general election!

bobbysands81

NIMAN wrote: »

But the people of NI will feel the pain of it not arriving, thats for sure.

Strange question you've asked when you're already saying that it's not their fault.

Jolly Red Giant

fly_agaric wrote: »

IF they work within budget set and implement cuts/raise charges etc we can say they are "hypocrits" (on account of the party's anti austerity message in the south).

IF they try to avoid cuts in north and precipitate funding crisis for NI executive we can say they are "economic illiterates" and unfit to be given controls in the Republic

(which has always been run in a prudent fashion by "Fianna Gael" when it comes to the budget - eg. the wise maxim of "when I have it I will spend it" (on the lobby group who shouts loudest if there is election coming).

Win-Win situation for "bashing" SF so I'm sure it'll be aired constantly until next general election!

The joys of being stuck in a government that dances to the whim of British Imperialist interests.

realitykeeper

NIMAN wrote: »

How will Sinn Fein, being an All Ireland party, be able to defend the massive cuts coming in NI whilst they continue their anti-water charges, anti-household charge, anti-USC .... etc stance in RoI?

The NI budget cut is rumoured to be between €880 million - €1.1 billion. That's a huge amount to take out of the NI economy.

1. Cuts are cuts and charges are charges so the comparison is a bit clumsy.
2. Cuts are necessary and are therefore good. Why should anyone have to "defend" a good thing.
3. Sinn Fein are in a coalition in N.I. and in all probability it is their coalition partners who ought to be credited with the cuts and not Sinn Fein.
4. FG favour cuts over taxes. Therefore it is the leftists who are to blame for all of these charges.

maccored

whatabout reality? ... you seem to be missing that bit. your SF hatred is a bit obvious at this stage.

raymon wrote: »

Whatabout Westminster . Whatabout DUP.


Here we go again !

nice_guy80

How can you blame Sinn Fein for these cuts?

Where could they find replacement money in NI?

maccored

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

If the Shinners think joining that little failed statelet to Ireland is going to reduce the costs of same statelet by 1/3 (all of a sudden) then they really are on a different planet.

anyone who is as naive as to think thats all a united ireland entails really is on a different planet.

BoJack Horseman

maccored wrote: »

anyone who is as naive as to think thats all a united ireland entails really is on a different planet.

Educate us then...

Tell us the Shinnernomics magic that makes the €14bn annual gift from George Osbourne plus the NI share of UK national debt manageable for the ROI?

Genuinely keen to know.

Banjoxed

For a party on the rise they can be remarkably thin skinned.

john.han

raymon wrote: »

Whatabout Westminster . Whatabout DUP.


Here we go again !

Both are very relevant considering the context of the stable establishment of a Northern Ireland Executive as part of a peace process in a region devastated by conflict for four decades. But sure ignore that... Boo Sinn Fein!

maccored

A united ireland is a concept that would take a few generations to complete, and would entail creating a united, all ireland government. This is not one government adding on another one.

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Educate us then...

Tell us the Shinnernomics magic that makes the €14bn annual gift from George Osbourne plus the NI share of UK national debt manageable for the ROI?

Genuinely keen to know.

BoJack Horseman

maccored wrote: »

A united ireland is a concept that would take a few generations to complete, and would entail creating a united, all ireland government. This is not one government adding on another one.

And this intangible pays for NI's share of UK national debt how exactly?

Unsure how the cost of NI magically reduces by 1/3 either?

SF in ROI have vehemently opposed all government spending reductions..... I doubt they have a clue how they would slash over €1bn every month from NI.

I'm sure after all these years someone in Parnell St has ran the numbers?

Rightwing

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

And this intangible pays for NI's share of UK national debt how exactly?

Unsure how the cost of NI magically reduces by 1/3 either?

SF in ROI have vehemently opposed all government spending reductions..... I doubt they have a clue how they would slash over €1bn every month from NI.

I'm sure after all these years someone in Parnell St has ran the numbers?

Incorrect. They want to reduce government spending on ridiculous salaries.

I think you'll find all opposition parties tell porkies. Didn't Enda Kenny state that he was opposed to property tax 'a man's house is his castle' bulls*it

BoJack Horseman

Rightwing wrote: »

Incorrect. They want to reduce government spending on ridiculous salaries.

Did they?

Out of the €9bn in public spending cuts from peak, how much do you think this reduction would have saved?

Did the Shinners themselves estimate?

Rightwing

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Did they?

Out of the €9bn in public spending cuts from peak, how much do you think this reduction would have saved?

Did the Shinners themselves estimate?

In 1 word, YES.

BoJack Horseman

Rightwing wrote: »

In 1 word, YES.

And the savings?

maccored

what are you talking about? if a UI happened, it would take a lot of time and in the end there wouldnt be a 'NI'. Its a complex issue not helped by short sightedness.

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

And this intangible pays for NI's share of UK national debt how exactly?

Unsure how the cost of NI magically reduces by 1/3 either?

SF in ROI have vehemently opposed all government spending reductions..... I doubt they have a clue how they would slash over €1bn every month from NI.

I'm sure after all these years someone in Parnell St has ran the numbers?

Rightwing

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

And the savings?

That's a seperate issue. But 1 I can't help you out with unfortunately.

ShowMeTheCash

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

And this intangible pays for NI's share of UK national debt how exactly?

Unsure how the cost of NI magically reduces by 1/3 either?

SF in ROI have vehemently opposed all government spending reductions..... I doubt they have a clue how they would slash over €1bn every month from NI.

I'm sure after all these years someone in Parnell St has ran the numbers?

In part - I might somewhat agree that SF are over promising on things that they probably cannot deliver on but I do not see how that makes them any different than FG or FF.

In really there is no point trying to quantify the impact of NI leaving the UK and what portion of the national debt they will take with it and then what cuts will be made etc etc... It is complex and in the end it would be a totally new situation.

As for SF not having a clue, I think they are in good company as all the major parties of our little crony run inept utopia would be lucky to have a clue among them.

Personally I do not think a political party trying to over reach is the issue in Ireland, our major political parties are rotten with cornyism and corruption to their very core... It needs to change!

BoJack Horseman

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

In really there is no point trying to quantify the impact of NI leaving the UK and what portion of the national debt they will take with it

There is every reason to quantify it.
We would be the ones paying it.

Seems silly to tell the people that NI joining would be grand but 'complex'..... let's just ignore the 200-300 billion euro price tag.

ShowMeTheCash

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

There is every reason to quantify it.
We would be the ones paying it.

Seems silly to tell the people that NI joining would be grand but 'complex'..... let's just ignore the 200-300 billion euro price tag.

No you are "trying" to quantify it, you are not quantifying it.

How much of the UK national debt to you really think NI would be taking with it? Considering the UK subsidise more than half of their budget?

It would make sense for the UK to cut their losses with NI and let them go.

But again I am now simplifing...

Godge

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

No you are "trying" to quantify it, you are not quantifying it.

How much of the UK national debt to you really think NI would be taking with it? Considering the UK subsidise more than half of their budget?

It would make sense for the UK to cut their losses with NI and let them go.

But again I am now simplifing...

That is interesting. If the UK subsidies half the NI budget, then NI must owe a greater share of the UK debt on a per capita basis.

Where is the money to subsidise NI going to come from post-unification? From my pocket and your pocket and everyone else's pocket. What chance I vote yes? None.

ShowMeTheCash

Godge wrote: »

That is interesting. If the UK subsidies half the NI budget, then NI must owe a greater share of the UK debt on a per capita basis.

Where is the money to subsidise NI going to come from post-unification? From my pocket and your pocket and everyone else's pocket. What chance I vote yes? None.

Yeah thats right you will have to pay for every man woman and child in NI...

Firstly you seem to think post unifcation there will be a northern ireland, there won't, it will be ireland.
People in NI pay less in the form of taxation so that will change various bodies will need to be brought into the fold, Ireland as a whole provide less with regards schools, education, social housing, hospitals, healthcare, Sanitisation etc etc...

The deficit has a lot to do with the fact that in the UK they provide ALOT more.

On the positive side the standard of education in NI is pretty high the work force is pretty well educated and salaries in the public and private sector are not as over inflated as they are in the state.

The challange would be to try and maintain the good things in NI, things to do much better than the state, transitioning people to the current irish way of taxation and essentially cutting services that where previously provided by the UK that will be discontinued under state rule.

It would not happen that the rest of the UK would try and lumber NI with a huge propotion of the nationl debt, if it was to rejoin the Republic, what would they say?

"Hey we invaded your country a while back and took six counties, we would like to return them, oh and by the way they owe us 200billion, if we could have that by the end of the week that would be great"

I think the people of NI would be nuts to want to join the state in the first place so I never see it happening.

Godge

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

Yeah thats right you will have to pay for every man woman and child in NI...

Firstly you seem to think post unifcation there will be a northern ireland, there won't, it will be ireland.
People in NI pay less in the form of taxation so that will change various bodies will need to be brought into the fold, Ireland as a whole provide less with regards schools, education, social housing, hospitals, healthcare, Sanitisation etc etc...

The deficit has a lot to do with the fact that in the UK they provide ALOT more.

On the positive side the standard of education in NI is pretty high the work force is pretty well educated and salaries in the public and private sector are not as over inflated as they are in the state.

The challange would be to try and maintain the good things in NI, things to do much better than the state, transitioning people to the current irish way of taxation and essentially cutting services that where previously provided by the UK that will be discontinued under state rule.

It would not happen that the rest of the UK would try and lumber NI with a huge propotion of the nationl debt, if it was to rejoin the Republic, what would they say?

"Hey we invaded your country a while back and took six counties, we would like to return them, oh and by the way they owe us 200billion, if we could have that by the end of the week that would be great"

I think the people of NI would be nuts to want to join the state in the first place so I never see it happening.

Oh I agree with your post. There are only two options:

- Public services cut drastically in Northern Ireland
- Taxes in all of Ireland go up significantly to give everyone higher public services (or things like child benefit get abolished).


I cannot see NI voting Yes to unification if it is the first option.
I cannot see either side of the border voting yes if it is the second option.

Adding on a greater portion of UK debt would only add to the problem.

ShowMeTheCash

Godge wrote: »

Oh I agree with your post. There are only two options:

- Public services cut drastically in Northern Ireland
- Taxes in all of Ireland go up significantly to give everyone higher public services (or things like child benefit get abolished).


I cannot see NI voting Yes to unification if it is the first option.
I cannot see either side of the border voting yes if it is the second option.

Adding on a greater portion of UK debt would only add to the problem.

We are kind of agreed on the basics here but to go back to my earlier point - It is hard to quantify, people are coming up with numbers and how much it will cost and how bad it would be, doing this is somewhat short sighted...

Public service cuts yes - But more so to bring NI inline to what Ireland can afford per capita.

Taxes in ireland go up significantly - Hard to know! Look its not that NI won't bring anything to the table, the country will grow, but so will the over all business and employment oppertunities in the country as a whole - Will the transition be easy? I doubt it, corruption and cronyism in our govenment needs to be weeded out and I am at a bit of a loss to know what to do with the northern ireland assembly... I think the transition would be hard but it could (if managed correctly) level back out and or work to our advantage.

mistermouse

The Northern Ireland subsidy for many years was down to a huge public service and security costs. It is inevitable that the subsidy would be cut in any case

However, many in the Republic do not particularly understand or know Northern Ireland or have much experience of it

In some ways Northern Ireland could be at the brink of economic success as is. On the ground things are prospering in many cases, large grants such as the International Fund for Ireland and grants for cultural projects for example have left a very good infrastructure in many places, Derry is an example and is light years ahead of most cities and certainly border counties in the Republic.

Add to this and continued peace, possibly a Corporation Tax rate cut and the province could do very well in the next few years. It could also learn from the Republics mistakes quite alot. On the whole it is also better and regional development than the south with not as much division of development in the Republic.

In essence in a few years time Sinn Fein might well be able to point to Northern Ireland as an example of what the south should be doing. I still think Sinn Fein would probably rather be in government in two terms time rather than the next.

I'd say most political parties on this side are quite envious of their strategies and success. I do see Sinn Feins populist strategies, but the current government here are only in government as a result of a backlash against Fianna Fail, and their own election populist promises that were broken in most cases, so there's not much difference

In the event Sinn Fein would do what all parties have done - blame things on the wider economy / Europe etc...

NIMAN

mistermouse wrote: »

The Northern Ireland subsidy for many years was down to a huge public service and security costs. It is inevitable that the subsidy would be cut in any case

However, many in the Republic do not particularly understand or know Northern Ireland or have much experience of it

In some ways Northern Ireland could be at the brink of economic success as is. On the ground things are prospering in many cases, large grants such as the International Fund for Ireland and grants for cultural projects for example have left a very good infrastructure in many places, Derry is an example and is light years ahead of most cities and certainly border counties in the Republic.

Add to this and continued peace, possibly a Corporation Tax rate cut and the province could do very well in the next few years. It could also learn from the Republics mistakes quite alot. On the whole it is also better and regional development than the south with not as much division of development in the Republic.

In essence in a few years time Sinn Fein might well be able to point to Northern Ireland as an example of what the south should be doing. I still think Sinn Fein would probably rather be in government in two terms time rather than the next.

I'd say most political parties on this side are quite envious of their strategies and success. I do see Sinn Feins populist strategies, but the current government here are only in government as a result of a backlash against Fianna Fail, and their own election populist promises that were broken in most cases, so there's not much difference

In the event Sinn Fein would do what all parties have done - blame things on the wider economy / Europe etc...

In terms of what?
Derry has been badly neglected by Stormont for many years, and money spent on it compared to other towns and cities in NI is minimal.

Roads spending is Derry is poor, I know of 2 projects where one took nearly 15yrs to get done, and another (a new major roundabout) that was actually stalled in the middle of building due to lack of funds. This would never happen in the Belfast region, which gets an unfair proportion of the infrastructure budget.

Its university has recently had expansion plans turned down.
The redevelopment of the Brandywell Stadium and surrounding area has been dragging on for years now, despite nearly every sports ground in the rest of the country getting money thrown at them.

Derry is also an unemployment blackspot, and has been for most of my life.

As long as I can remember, the city has been starved of investment and any sign of equality when it coming to spending allocation.

The Corinthian

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

We are kind of agreed on the basics here but to go back to my earlier point - It is hard to quantify, people are coming up with numbers and how much it will cost and how bad it would be, doing this is somewhat short sighted...

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain...

Problem is that it could be short sighted, but then again that's what I was told in 2005 when I said I thought buying a house was a dumb idea.

Of course, it could be short sighted. Northern Ireland "could be at the brink of economic success as is", but I've not heard any convincing arguments or seen evidence that this could be the case. Instead, most evidence points to a private sector heavily propped up by UK government subsidies in a tribal environment that is kept from boiling over only by further UK government expenditure and local government that cares more about marches and flags than the economy - which is as well, because neither the Loyalists nor Nationalists seem to have a notion about economics.

In practical terms though, it makes no difference because the south has neither the resources nor will to take over the level of subsidy that the UK is presently effecting and the north would effectively collapse if that level of subsidy was lost overnight. So the north would need to come at least part way to reach that 'economic success' before the training wheels could be taken off to a level that the south could afford. And by-the-by, economic success does not mean GDP generation by government subsidy.

If I were SF, I'd probably concentrate on that if they're serious about unification. But as I said, I get the impression that marches and flags are a greater priority.

ardmacha

The Corinthian wrote: »

In practical terms though, it makes no difference because the south has neither the resources nor will to take over the level of subsidy that the UK is presently effecting and the north would effectively collapse if that level of subsidy was lost overnight. So the north would need to come at least part way to reach that 'economic success' before the training wheels could be taken off to a level that the south could afford. And by-the-by, economic success does not mean GDP generation by government subsidy.

Current trends are reducing public expenditure in NI to that of the UK generally rather than its previously inflated figure and there is more emphasis on private sector development as public sector layoffs occur. This issue is not a current one, and in the timescale where it becomes more current the North can at least come part of the way, as you suggest.

The Corinthian wrote: »

If I were SF, I'd probably concentrate on that if they're serious about unification. But as I said, I get the impression that marches and flags are a greater priority.

SF haven't been especially concentrated on marches and flags, it is others who are stirring the pot in that respect. They are just useless on economics.

ShowMeTheCash

The Corinthian wrote: »

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain...

Problem is that it could be short sighted, but then again that's what I was told in 2005 when I said I thought buying a house was a dumb idea.

Of course, it could be short sighted. Northern Ireland "could be at the brink of economic success as is", but I've not heard any convincing arguments or seen evidence that this could be the case. Instead, most evidence points to a private sector heavily propped up by UK government subsidies in a tribal environment that is kept from boiling over only by further UK government expenditure and local government that cares more about marches and flags than the economy - which is as well, because neither the Loyalists nor Nationalists seem to have a notion about economics.

In practical terms though, it makes no difference because the south has neither the resources nor will to take over the level of subsidy that the UK is presently effecting and the north would effectively collapse if that level of subsidy was lost overnight. So the north would need to come at least part way to reach that 'economic success' before the training wheels could be taken off to a level that the south could afford. And by-the-by, economic success does not mean GDP generation by government subsidy.

If I were SF, I'd probably concentrate on that if they're serious about unification. But as I said, I get the impression that marches and flags are a greater priority.

A 10 year old with basic maths could of told you that buying a house in 2005 was a bad idea, the trouble with Ireland was no one wanted to believe it...

A major issue with out country is hype, that house is worth 500K... Why?

I have worked funnily enough in Derry, Belfast and Dublin.
And have lived in all 3 Citites for a significant period of time.

NI is heavily subsidised but there is a noticible difference in how things operate and are run. I get paid more in Dublin but serives are lacking.

The NI assembly is a joke but most of the infrastructure came from the mainland UK and I am afraid it leaves the state far behind in it's wake.

So let's break it down the level of service provided in NI, Ireland could simply not afford as it is let a lone subsidise another 1.8 million.
So let's not be totally stupid, Ireland won't do it nor could it do it, so this idea that we would HAVE to subsidise NI I think is nonsense.

But on the flip side the salaries in the state are overly inflated and the education in NI is significantly of a higher quality. So in the restructure I would replace huge segments of the public sector with staff from NI who are better educated and will work for half the salary of their state brethren

How would ireland cope if 1.8 million immigrants came to Ireland?
Considering we are still about 3 million down from 1851.

I would focus less on what the UK does for NI and more on what NI could do for Ireland as a whole!

Godge

ShowMeTheCash wrote: »

But on the flip side the salaries in the state are overly inflated and the education in NI is significantly of a higher quality. So in the restructure I would replace huge segments of the public sector with staff from NI who are better educated and will work for half the salary of their state brethren

Are you serious?

How would you go about this? Just fire the civil servants down South?

ShowMeTheCash

Godge wrote: »

Are you serious?

How would you go about this? Just fire the civil servants down South?

It was a joke....But then again :rolleyes: