Hurricane GONZALO

maquiladora

Gonzalo is a major hurricane forecast to track close to Bermuda.

5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 15
Location: 22.9°N 67.3°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 954 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

hatrickpatrick

NCHurricane2009 whose blog I follow every year (fantastic analyses of the Atlantic during hurricane seasons) predicted a couple of days ago that it would reach category 5, although he has backed down from that intensity forecast since.

http://ido.wunderground.com/blog/NCHurricane2009/comment.html?entrynum=518

maquiladora

Gonzalo is now a Cat 4 hurricane, the strongest storm since 2011.

11:00 AM AST Wed Oct 15
Location: 23.5°N 68.0°W
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 949 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

M.T. Cranium

Most recent model runs show the remnants racing east across (northern areas) Ireland and Britain early Tuesday 21st. Would expect gusts to 110 km/hr in exposed areas, 15-25 mm rainfalls, but temperatures will be far too mild for snow, around 12-15 C. A significant event but hardly a "monster hurricane" at that point.

maquiladora

^^ Those images are of the large north Atlantic low, not hurricane Gonzalo.


The official forecast track takes it only about 20km west of Bermuda.

Re-gained Cat 4 status this morning.

5:00 AM AST Thu Oct 16
Location: 25.3°N 68.7°W
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 945 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph

Cantona's Collars

maquiladora wrote: »

^^ Those images are of the large north Atlantic low, not hurricane Gonzalo.


The official forecast track takes it only about 20km west of Bermuda.

Re-gained Cat 4 status this morning.

Lol,UK press using false reporting to big up a story,who'd have thought.:rolleyes:

I was wondering that all right when I looked at them,it must have been the fastest moving storm in history to get that far northwest so quickly.

Lumi

Mod Note
The Daily Express articles on Hurricane Gonzalo have been moved into the Tabloid Thread
They were bringing this thread a wee bit off topic but feel free to comment/snigger away at them over there

RED L4 0TH

Gonzalo at midday.

maquiladora

A wet and blustery day for us next week courtesy of then ex-Gonzalo on the 12Z GFS.

maquiladora

Gonzalo is the strongest hurricane since 2010 now. Just 12 mph under Cat 5 status. The latest forecast track is virtually directly over Bermuda.

2:00 PM AST Thu Oct 16
Location: 26.5°N 68.5°W
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 942 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

maquiladora

Gonzalo is approaching Bermuda this evening. Good webcam here. Looking very windy already : http://portbermudawebcam.com/

Rikand

maquiladora wrote: »

A wet and blustery day for us next week courtesy of then ex-Gonzalo on the 12Z GFS.

A cold windy day ahead for sure

maquiladora

Looking really wild on the webcam now.

bnt

The Bermuda Weather Service Radar looked like this a few hours ago :eek:



Eyewall about 35 miles across, according to Weather Underground.

royalflush2003

Nice webcam , looks like Greystones lol

Stella Virgo

brilliant web cam .wet n wild in bermuda now ! :P

Aerohead

Stella Virgo wrote: »

brilliant web cam .wet n wild in bermuda now ! :P

Hope that tug boat is well secured in that wind

leinad

unbelievable web cam footage any idea of windspeed at that location?

Aerohead

leinad wrote: »

unbelievable web cam footage any idea of windspeed at that location?

Try here


http://www.weather.bm/observations.asp

Hal1

The webcam in port bermuda is streaming live on youtube. They have added a link on top of the main page.

Faustino

Unreal footage, the wind is relentless!

Hal1

Sounds like a jet afterburner. The seas are fairly choppy now, and won't be long till it breaches the sea wall. A direct hit forecast, hopefully those who stayed will be alright.

RED L4 0TH

Image at 10pm.

RED L4 0TH

Latest radar image. Viewing the animated loop, it looks like the eye will pass right over the island.

http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp

sunbabe08

Watching the web cam on youtube. that wind is scary

elecktras weather bomb

THIS IS VERY SCARY to watch. this is a lot bigger than sandy . would it do as much if not more damage than sandy? there is a few super cells thrown in for good measure. hope anyone that stayed is ok.

RED L4 0TH

sunbabe08 wrote: »

Watching the web cam on youtube. that wind is scary

The northern part of the eye should be reaching the island now looking at the latest radar loop. The winds might drop away soon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsKPEx3fgHU

RuthieRose

Hurricane!! Where??? ðŸ˜႒ beautiful morning in Cavan. Happy Saturday everyone!!

Aerohead

Don't know why the warning about heavy rain and flooding in the South and West, lovely day in Galway and not a lot on the radar

sunbabe08

seriously i decided not to go to college today because of this yellow warning, it hasn't rained at all in the city. besides the howling wind it's actually a grand oul day

maquiladora

The warning for heavy showers has got nothing to do with this hurricane guys. Remains of Gonzalo won't be around our parts until Tuesday...

Dazzo

Thats irish weather for ya....

howlinwolf

a question for the more tuned in people...with the el nina effect this year, does this have any bearing on atlantic storms/depressions as in intensity, direction or is it just the pacific that it effects?

pauldry

howlinwolf wrote: »

a question for the more tuned in people...with the el nina effect this year, does this have any bearing on atlantic storms/depressions as in intensity, direction or is it just the pacific that it effects?

Yes it usually brings wet and windy winters. Prob like last year

Billcarson

It is thought that an el nino has less effect on europe then other parts of the globe. This el nino is expected to be fairly weak i think which should be alright news for those hoping for a colder then average winter.

omicron

Quite unusual to have a Cat 1 hurricane which hasn't transitioned to extratropical yet north of 45N!

RED L4 0TH

Still a hurricane despite being over SSTs of less than 10C. Extra-tropical transition expected very soon though.

Xenji

What time tomorrow are we expecting this to hit the west coast?

howlinwolf

how are the models looking for this ex hurricane, the last models I seen were yesterday and they were saying a downgrade with the low pushing further north.... any change?

sunbabe08

well according to accuweather is hitting us tomorrow night

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/gonzalo-to-deliver-drenching-r/35936197

maquiladora

howlinwolf wrote: »

how are the models looking for this ex hurricane, the last models I seen were yesterday and they were saying a downgrade with the low pushing further north.... any change?

The bulk of the heaviest rain looks like heading for Scotland. Gusts look like being up to around 85-95 km/h around coasts, so nothing exceptional at all. A wet and windy autumn night, the type of thing you see several times in the average autumn. The media hype is ridiculous.

Iancar29

Exactly Maq... nothing out of the ordinary . Wouldnt even have its own thread if it wasnt for it being a hurricane from the start.

maquiladora

Gonzalo is now Post-Tropical. The final forecast discussion:

The combined effect of sea-surface temperatures around 10C and
southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 40 kt has finally
taken its toll on Gonzalo. The upper-level circulation is tilted
more than 100 nmi to the northeast of the low-level circulation
center, and an abundance of cold-air stratocumulus clouds has
wrapped all the way around the entire low-level circulation. Gonzalo
looks like a frontal low in satellite imagery, suggesting that the
system has completed its transformation into an extratropical
cyclone. The initial intensity has been decreased to 70 kt, which is
consistent with various decay models. Only gradual weakening is
expected during the next 48 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 060/45 kt. Gonzalo has turned toward
the east-northeast, and that general motion is expected for the next
24-36 hours, after which the cyclone is forecast to slow down
considerably and turn northward and be absorbed by a larger low
pressure system north of the British Isles by 72 hours. The NHC
track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and
is near the latest forecast guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.

This is the last NHC advisory on Gonzalo. Additional information on
this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 51.6N 41.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 20/0600Z 53.6N 31.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/1800Z 56.5N 15.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/0600Z 58.5N 1.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1800Z 64.5N 1.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1800Z...ABSORBED