Huge Earth directed solar X-Flare

SlowBlowin

A big X class solar flare, smack bang on earth directed.

spaceweather.com very slow.

This could be an exceptional event.

Huw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpBUhlhXMDo

09/10/2014 @ 19:25 UTC
Incoming data reveals that the X1.6 event generated a 10cm radio burst (TenFlare) measuring 1300 solar flux units and lasing 57 minutes.

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2014 Sep 10 1723 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Sep 10 1732 UTC
End Time: 2014 Sep 10 1826 UTC
Duration: 57 minutes
Peak Flux: 1300 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 159 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

09/10/2014 @ 19:00 UTC
While coronagraph imagery is still needed, other data suggests that the CME will be a large, full-halo and Earth directed event. A geomagnetic storm will likely be possible by this weekend. More to follow.

http://www.solarham.net/data/events/sep10_2014_x1.6/index.htm

helimachoptor

Is it time crack opens each other's skulls and feast on the goo inside?

Potential to knock a few satellites out?

Hal1

Just reading about this myself. Wow that's an incredible xflare 3750ms. Possible earth directed cme? Lower latitudes are most likely to witness an aurora then in that case. Aurora map: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/images/Aurora_Map_N.png

Latest CME prediction model released by the Goddard Space Flight Center is showing a nearly direct CME impact by Friday. As I reported earlier, minor to major geomagnetic storming will be possible once the plasma cloud sweeps past our planet. This could hopefully be a great weekend for sky watchers at middle to high latitudes.

http://www.solarham.net/

An updated CME prediction model by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center is calling for the plasma cloud generated by the X1.6 solar flare to impact our geomagnetic field by Friday.

A moderate to major (G3) geomagnetic storm watch is now in effect. Solar wind speeds are predicted to reach near 800 km/s and could add fuel to another geomagnetic disturbance in the forecast resulting from an earlier M4.5 flare and CME event. Sky watchers at middle to high latitudes should be alert this weekend for visual aurora displays.


http://www.solarham.net/cmewatch2.htm

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 12: G2 (Moderate) Sep 13: G3 (Strong) Sep 14: G1 (Minor)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Comment: Upgrading the Watch for 13-14 Sep due to anticipated effects from the CME associated with yesterdays R3 (Strong) event.
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.

JustAddWater

ooooooooh!!!

KP7 on 1-4am saturday

Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13

00-03UT 3 2 7 (G3)

03-06UT 4 4 6

06-09UT 3 6 (G2) 6

09-12UT 2 5 (G1) 5

12-15UT 1 4 5

15-18UT 1 4 4

18-21UT 2 3 4

21-00UT 2 4 4

JustAddWater

JustAddWater wrote: »

ooooooooh!!!

KP7 on 1-4am saturday

For those that don't know what KP means. The Kp-index is a global geomagnetic storm index with a scale of 0 to 9. Based on the Kp-index, you can immediately know if there is a chance to see aurora or not:

And what does 7 mean? The green hue we get every few years?

Hal1

A kp index of 7 would probably result in something like this or better.



I hope it's ok to post this image taken from nightskyhunter.com.

jfSDAS

Hi Everyone,

Some shots that I took of the aurora displays in 2003 from Wicklow are at https://www.flickr.com/photos/92397104@N00/sets/72157600866332636/ ... this gives an idea of a geomagnetic storm from our latitude.

John

ankaragucu

Is it still Kp7 and is the most opertune time still 1am to 4 am Saturday??

Riamfada

From Dublin where is the best place to try and see this?

JustAddWater

Riamfada wrote: »

From Dublin where is the best place to try and see this?

Needs to meet a few criteria. Needs to be dark, little cloud cover as possible (ideally none, but this is Ireland), away from city lights, higher up the better with good view of the horizon, and more important, north facing as the lights will appear on the north horizon so the likes of coastal area's are not much good being east (or west!) facing.

Wicklow from what I read is not great, since Dublin is to the north of it (light pollution). Others might have better views on that.

I know a few stargazing spots but not much use for aurora.

I think in Dublin you'll need to go north as much as possible. Trying to think of good spots myself. Tara hill maybe? short distance from Dublin.

Its also not a great idea to travel for hours/miles as there's never any guarantee they'll be visible

*fingers crossed*

JustAddWater

3 day forecast updated


Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14
00-03UT 3 6 (G2) 4
03-06UT 4 7 (G3) 5 (G1)
06-09UT 6 (G2) 6 (G2) 5 (G1)
09-12UT 5 (G1) 5 (G1) 4
12-15UT 5 (G1) 5 (G1) 3
15-18UT 4 4 3
18-21UT 4 5 (G1) 3
21-00UT 5 (G1) 5 (G1) 4

Yawns

I can't believe my dslr is broken! Typical huh. Hopefully I can see it from Athy easily enough. I'm just outside the town and lucky to just have mostly farmer fields nearby

jfSDAS

Some calls coming in to the Observatory at Dunsink about the aurora so I'll post a few links here and enquiries can be pointed to this thread and also to http://www.irishastronomy.org (IFAS).

As JustAddWater said, the best option is get to a dark site if you want to really have the best views of the aurora and also capture the display on camera without any light pollution.

Around Dublin you might find some spots northwest or north of the City ... I've pulled in on the Walshestown road just off the first exit for Balbriggan on the M1 north and got good views of the aurora before at that spot. There's not much room for more than a couple of cars though. The Naul might be good too and also Bective Abbey near Trim which has a large car park.

The Sugar Loaf car park or other areas nearby might not be too bad either even though you are looking over the City. If the display is really active you can get good views of it from there despite the capital's light pollution ... it kind of depends on whether there's a lot of haze/aerosols in the atmosphere scattering Dublin's light dome (I noticed a lot of scattering last night despite the sky being clear).

Two sites I use for observing are below ... I live on the border of Templeogue/Terenure in Dublin so these are southside locations.

Slademore is just off the N11 before Brittas and is a Coillte forest. There's room for a few cars to pull in and it has a nice southerly aspect. When you walk up the forest track there are great views to the west and north of the City (the westerly aspect is ideal for evening conjunctions, etc). See http://maps.osi.ie/publicviewer/#V1,701292,722469,5,10 for the exact spot. You can get to it by going into Brittas and taking the right-hand turn (McDonagh's Lane) by the now-closed Blue Gardinia restaurant/pub.

Garryknock is just off the Hollywood to Laragh Road heading towards Turlough Hill. I found this site by accident while doing one of my many drives around Wicklow looking for ideal observing locations. The forest is mostly cleared here at the moment and there is plenty of room for cars. There's a great southern horizon but having only stumbled across the place this summer I will need to see what it's like for observing as the darker nights close in. We did do some astrophotography there about a month ago and it is a promising observing site. See http://maps.osi.ie/publicviewer/#V1,703088,702661,4,10

Occasionally go up to the saddle road that passes by Sorrel Hill to get a good sky if cloud is around the Sugar Loaf area. The micro-climate of the Wicklow Mountains means that sometimes the sky is clear on the western slopes of the mountains rather than the east. See http://maps.osi.ie/publicviewer/#V1,704219,710925,4,10

Aurorawatch UK have a magnetometer hooked up to the internet which is worth checking for enhanced aurora activity. See http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ and also http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/introduction for an explanation of what is the aurora. The page http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/livedata explains how to interpret the magnetometer data. I noticed the example uses the aurora storm of April 6th, 2000 which a few of us actually first noticed from Kenilworth Square in Harold's Cross, just 2 miles or so from Dublin City Centre! It first appeared as two red beams like searchlights shooting up from the northern skyline. A high pale green arch was also visible at this time too. The display was even more spectacular once we got out to Kilakee where the sky was much darker.

Another excellent site is http://www.spaceweather.com which has lots of information about the latest celestial events. A diagram on the left-hand side of the page shows the current auroral oval as well as details about possible aurora activity.

A similar page with graphic displays of the aurora oval is http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/ ... see also their pages on what is the aurora and how to view it.

http://www.aurora-service.eu/ is another good site with lots of information on the northern lights and how to view it, as is http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast

Atmospheric optics expert Les Cowley has a few pages on the northern lights at http://www.atoptics.co.uk/highsky/auror1.htm ... it is well worth looking through the other phenomena highlighted such as halos, etc ... you'll be amazed at the wonders in our sky!

For the more serious observers you can find a bewildering amount of information at http://www.solarham.net/ and also see the latest space weather alerts/forecasts at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

Clear skies!

John

Higgeldy

Thanks SO much for that, really appreciate it. Didnt fancy a drive to Bundoran from Dublin after work this evening!!

gaz wac

hey,

just so its not a wasted trip at 1am....tonight up on the hill of tara, if clear, would that be a good spot? is that the best time ?

thanks

jfSDAS

hi gaz_wac,

You should get good views from that location ... not sure how dark it is at night there but I'm guessing there's not that much light around. Keep an eye on the Aurorawatch UK web site (spaceweather.com seems to be overloaded at the mo) -- the current forecast is for the next charged-cloud to impact Earth's magnetosphere around 1am tomorrow morning, leading to enhanced aurora activity.

I'm heading over to a friend in Swords later and we'll drive north a bit from there.

Skies are very milky/hazy at the moment so hopefully that gunk will clear.

We are only going on a forecast of aurora activity so there's no absolute guarantee we'll see something but fingers-crossed! Other factors, such as the Bz value (direction of the Earth's magnetic component) can affect what will happen. Info on the Bz and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field at http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/help/the-interplanetary-magnetic-field-imf

See also another link about today's possible activity at http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/10/20140911-middle-latitude-auroral-activity-watch-12-and-13-september-2014

Good luck tonight everyone!

John

Woodville56

What are the chances ( clear skies allowing) of seeing aurora activity tonight west of the Shannon - Galway / Clare ?

RebelButtMunch

Woodville56 wrote: »

What are the chances ( clear skies allowing) of seeing aurora activity tonight west of the Shannon - Galway / Clare ?

Good I think

http://theyr.tv/cg/cna/I4baeea/F=js*L=CM*s*140912*20*a*IE*ie_Dublin

syngindub

Looking forward to this event

Zyzz

You think it can be seen just going out an looking up? Or would I have to go somewhere with a limited amount of light pollution? (Located dublin city)

Woodville56

Is visibility borderline at Lat 53N - south midlands ??

mystic86

I don't have a car sadly! Anyone travelling anywhere from Dublin city want to give me a lift to tag along, I really want to get some photos!!

Blue Dreamer

Is there any point going looking for this in Waterford?

JJJJNR

Thanks for the info, glendalough hopefully will have some good spots. now if I can only remember how to set my camera up for night shots.

Kersh

Starting to get gradually worse with fog here in Julianstown. Nothing to report yet.

youtube!

Yea it looks very misty out there right now (navan) I wonder if it will clear up ,thinking of heading to Hill of Tara...

JJJJNR

Up at the gap and theres a bit of cloud, not much, no activity to report yet. Going to sit it out up here for a while.

Etnies

Was just up all round Sally gap and glendalough and nothing in sight.. gave up and went home.

JJJJNR

There is some activity, it was there all along its very very faint but there is faint "dancing" in the cloud free areas of the sky, going to setup.

mystic86

I'm in Howth, can't see a thing, it's misty /foggy and there is a load of light pollution. Can't see anything in the parts of the sky that I can see

JJJJNR

Actually nothing to see, must have been my eyes playing tricks. Sorry false alarm.

mystic86

This sucks.
Big moon out not helping either.

youtube!

What a disappointment

shedweller

Too much low lying mist and i can only see some of the brighter stars above about 30 degrees elevation. And the moon. Nice big ring around it though...
Ah well. We did try!

jfSDAS

Hi all,

Drove to just north of Newry, stopping at a few places along the way to check the sky, but nothing seen. Lots of fog in parts, generally milky skies scattering moonlight and street lights, and a couple of "I don't think we are in Kansas anymore Toto" moments when lost on a few back roads ;-)

Overall, it was worth a try and a good experience on checking various web sites learning what to look for, bolstering the knowledge of the causes & effects of space weather, and that feeling of anticipation of witnessing one of nature's greatest sights some stage in my lifetime.

I saw a mug recently that said, "Keep Calm, the sky is bound to clear sometime" ;-)

John

Urfa

Hey Everyone

Had a look around the hill of tara and kells and no joy

Is there any hope for tonight??

Mickeroo

Yeah there was nothing doing in Mayo either. Was clear over head but too misty near the horizon and the big moon didn't help.

Sheeps

I'm gonna try head north of Dublin tonight see if I can spot anything.

mystic86

Sheeps wrote: »

I'm gonna try head north of Dublin tonight see if I can spot anything.

take me, I've no transport..?

Urfa

Does anyone have an idea of the forecast for tonight?? There doesn't seem to be as much about it today as there was yesterday!!

mickmackey1

Urfa wrote: »

Does anyone have an idea of the forecast for tonight?? There doesn't seem to be as much about it today as there was yesterday!!

David Moore's view...

mystic86

Not a fan of David Moore myself, don't know what the generally accepted view on him is...?

SpaceTime

What time are we expecting this?

wofias8

SpaceTime wrote: »

What time are we expecting this?

Yeah would like to know as well!

karltimber

Would the hill of Tara be a good spot for this tonight - looks clear out there now. whats the best time - now ? later ? Thanks

Any forecasts I see put tonight's peak at kp5, which is no good for us. Not sure why some people are predicting we'll see some activity tonight. I guess you never know...

Urfa

karltimber wrote: »

Would the hill of Tara be a good spot for this tonight - looks clear out there now. whats the best time - now ? later ? Thanks

I was at the hill of tara last night as were others. Its a ok spot but there is a lot of light pollution from navan town which is north lying. Making it harder to spot the aurora unless it was a very strong display. Thsts just my personal opinion though im no expert! ! Might be ok for photo purposes.