Which airports do you see in Ireland (Republic) in 10 years time?

fr336

And why?

I guess we shouldn't even mention Dublin, and Cork would be the next near definite. But what of Shannon and especially Waterford, Kerry, Knock etc?

L1011

Shannon will still be there, if it doesn't stay on its own two feet, politics will protect it.

Kerry will be in trouble if the PSO goes, as that its bread and butter - not the few FR routes. Knock I suspect is OK. Waterford seems to be surviving and I suspect it'll get London back at some point too. Donegal is entirely PSO reliant but its under less risk.

folbotcar

Dublin, Shannon definitely. Cork and Knock if they continue to keep it commercial and recognise no one owes them a living.

The rest? Well it depends on whether they understand the above.

fr336

folbotcar wrote: »

Dublin, Shannon definitely. Cork and Knock if they continue to keep it commercial and recognise no one owes them a living.

The rest? Well it depends on whether they understand the above.

Why Shannon ahead of Cork? Doesn't Cork have bigger passenger numbers and doesn't receive a huge amount of subsidy from the govt like SNN?

highlydebased

I don't see it being any different. 2024 is not all that far away- 2014 will seem like only yesterday!!

Interesting times ahead of course for all and there will no doubt be challenges, will be interesting to see what happens when Ryanair start to get their delivery of 180 odd new aircraft, what will this mean for their Irish operations etc.

Only airport to be even slightly concerned about is Kerry.

fr336

highlydebased wrote: »

will be interesting to see what happens when Ryanair start to get their delivery of 180 odd new aircraft, what will this mean for their Irish operations etc.

Got any ideas?

notharrypotter

Dublin
Cork
Shannon
Knock
Kerry
Waterford SAR base
Sligo SAR base
DOnegal PSO

In other words no change.

No significant change. Waterford to struggle unless it gets a second operator.

People seem to forget that the main thig with Shannon isn't passenger numbers, but maintenance. It'll definitely be around in 10 years.

Katunga

Dublin, cork Shannon are defiantly going to be around. I can see all three of these grow. I can see aircraft Maintenance grow considerably in Shannon. A 777 hangar is possibly going to be constructed next year.

Chris_5339762

If the M20 and CNRR ever get built either Cork or Shannon (probably Cork) will take a hammering.

folbotcar

fr336 wrote: »

Why Shannon ahead of Cork? Doesn't Cork have bigger passenger numbers and doesn't receive a huge amount of subsidy from the govt like SNN?

As someone says, you can't ignore the maintenance aspect and frankly it's strategic position in the country and for transatlantic traffic.

Cork on the other hand has less going for it and is in a slightly less comfortable position. But I do think it will survive.

Jack1985

Cork on the other hand has less going for it and is in a slightly less comfortable position. But I do think it will survive.

It's out of the question it would ever close, it's second largest populous centre in the country, that's like saying because Manchester in the UK is losing money it could close - Granted far bigger difference in population but it's the exact same situation and neither would ever happen.

Maintenance only brings in a certain amount of money, most of the time the aircraft is in it's on the maintenance bases turf and doesn't pay charges. It's not like it's taking up the airports operators stand and pays charges. The main and important thing maintenance brings is jobs.

folbotcar

The main and important thing maintenance brings is jobs.

Hence the need to keep the airport going. Lose the airport and the jobs go too. Which is why Shannon gets a subsidy.

Henry Ford III

Can't see much of a long term future for Knock. Not enough population nor traffic to support it.

The motorway from Galway when completed will be another nail in it's coffin.

Irish Steve

Don't forget that Shannon is also a strategic diversion airfield for the North Atlantic, not as critical as it used to be, but still important. The size of the runway is critical, and at some stage, I can see a time coming when having a large not massively busy runway where it is will be a factor as oil prices rise, paying to fly freight for the UK and Ireland to Germany and then back again will become uneconomic, and there will be advantages in having a freight hub at SNN, with onward using smaller aircraft to places like the UK, western France and the like, 2 Hrs of flight time for a large aircraft is a big fuel bill, and there will come a time when that sort of hub location will bring Shannon to the fore again.

Ultra long term, before trans atlantic rail becomes a possibility, it could even be the case that Shannon could become the airport of choice for the East Coast of the USA, with real high speed rail links into Europe, it will all depend on the eventual price of oil, or even oil replacements, but that's going to be longer term than 2024.

If there were people thinking truly long term in Ireland, it would help, but we're unfortunately stuck with a mind set that can never see beyond the next election, and so much of what's going to happen over the next 50 years will be critical in terms of what is developed infrastructure wise.

As for the other airports, it will very much depend on what happens to oil and oil replacements, the days of cheap travel are going to be curtailed, simply because oil is finite, and if it's a choice of travel or food, which at present it's looking like it will be, then food is going to come first, unless science can find an acceptable oil alternative that doesn't have to be grown on land that at present provides food. I can see a resurgence of rail, in that it is much easier to use electricity to power trains than it is to provide fuel (of whatever sort) for aircraft. Ultra high speed rail will take the place of air travel for a high percentage of journeys, though there will still be some air travel, but not as we know it now, the concept of a short flight to (say) Manchester from Dublin will almost certainly be replaced by a high speed rail tunnel, simply because of the economic pressures on oil.

that's completely ignoring the political implications of oil, which given the present total instability in too many of the major oil producers is probably not a good thing to be doing.

It's going to be a challenging century.

fr336

Many thanks Steve, really interesting. I of course hear what you're saying about oil completely, but just with ref to rail links across the sea that's not exactly cheap in itself. Of course oil is the overriding issue, but it's such a huge thing that people can kind of let it blur into the background - a rail link between countries under the sea tends to have people a bit shaky when it comes to cost! With my admittedly limited knowledge I agree that it will be well, well past 2024 before we see rail become as big as that. But then who knows I guess

Irish Steve

The issue that's going to be the crunch is that rail can be powered by electricity, from overhead or third rail, which means that it can be got to the motive power mover, whereas an aircraft can't carry wires, unless there's new technology around the corner that we don't know about. There's plenty of power in the sun, we just have to find more efficient ways to capture it.

Trains under the sea will indeed be a challenge, but the Channel Tunnel in the UK has proved it can be done, I've been through it several times, and there's a lot to be said for the concept. In the same vein, diesel powered trucks are going to be an issue in time, and electric trucks won't have the range or power to haul large loads long distances, unless (again) a new technology comes on stream. So, we're going to see rail resurgent, (eat your hearts out all those people that are against keeping old rail tracks, we're going to need them again before too long) with road being local distribution.

We will see better batteries, if someone had said a while ago that the sort of performance that LiPo cells are now producing was coming, most people would have laughed at them. There will be other new developments as well, but for a lot of uses, rail is going to be the format of choice. Not sure I'm ready for the Ryanair on rails concept though!

geneva geneva4444

Forgive me if I'm breaking forum rules here... as I rarely post, I'm not sure if links to other websites are allowed;

iaa.ie/traffic_monthly_review
Official IAA 2014 vs 2013 monthly traffic figures. Essential reading before commenting on a topic such as this.

Makes for some interesting reading. Shannon seems to be showing some life again now that its free of the shackles put on it by the DAA.
The new summer Ryanair routes were a fantastic plus for Shannon and there seems to be increased private jet stopovers as well from what I can tell.
Cork on the other hand is slightly worrying me. In a year of traffic growth across the board, Cork is going backwards. -8.7% in June is a poor showing. I'd love to understand why? I know Wizz Air stopped their runs to/from Poland last year which hurt Cork but that was only a few flights a week. To see negative growth for all months of 2014 except for May is simply not what we want to see.

All things considered though, none of the big three airports are in any short term danger. 10 years is a long time away though.
Nice to see the enroute traffic levels getting back to the 2008 era btw.

As for the satellite airports, I'm not in a position to comment as I don't have enough data at hand.


P.S - I think I read a post on this topic suggesting Cork was bigger/busier than Shannon. In recent years yes, but Shannon's commercial movements for April, May and June were higher than Corks. Food for thought....

Jack1985

geneva geneva4444 wrote: »

Forgive me if I'm breaking forum rules here... as I rarely post, I'm not sure if links to other websites are allowed;

iaa.ie/traffic_monthly_review
Official IAA 2014 vs 2013 monthly traffic figures. Essential reading before commenting on a topic such as this.

Makes for some interesting reading. Shannon seems to be showing some life again now that its free of the shackles put on it by the DAA.
The new summer Ryanair routes were a fantastic plus for Shannon and there seems to be increased private jet stopovers as well from what I can tell.
Cork on the other hand is slightly worrying me. In a year of traffic growth across the board, Cork is going backwards. -8.7% in June is a poor showing. I'd love to understand why? I know Wizz Air stopped their runs to/from Poland last year which hurt Cork but that was only a few flights a week. To see negative growth for all months of 2014 except for May is simply not what we want to see.

All things considered though, none of the big three airports are in any short term danger. 10 years is a long time away though.
Nice to see the enroute traffic levels getting back to the 2008 era btw.

As for the satellite airports, I'm not in a position to comment as I don't have enough data at hand.


P.S - I think I read a post on this topic suggesting Cork was bigger/busier than Shannon. In recent years yes, but Shannon's commercial movements for April, May and June were higher than Corks. Food for thought....

There's so many reasons why its gone down I actually have so many angles I could start from, to shorten it, the reason Cork traffic is declining is:

-Ryanair have driven out the competition including a successful 6 portfolio of routes for Wizz Air and have subsequently axed nearly all of those routes (FR) even though they were money makers.

-Ryanair are the only airline at Cork cutting capacity and not as a result of poor performance.

-Ryanair's growth at SNN is a cod, its the transfer of routes cut at Cork bar two four weekly in total flights to Shannon.

So to summarise about 95% of the decline in Cork this year is as a direct result of Ryanair to make points to management, not as a result of poor routes (and/or yielding routes) and also as a direct consequence of what can only be described as both predatory and unfair competition at Cork which was neither warranted nor needed. It is sad to see the airport I worked at for years to be going down such a bad road, but the thing is Cork has never had any favours from any politicians they got one they didn't ask for alright though, saddled with debt. Shannon on the other hand, its like everytime they meet an issue there's either a change or bailout - Sad to see the state's second largest city's airport neglected by inept idiots in Dublin who don't have an iota about what exactly an aviation policy is.

fr336

How on earth can FR get away with forcing other airlines out of an airport, then shelving the same routes themselves? It does both the airport (and its stakeholders) and passengers an unbelievable, economically costly disservice. Just what do governments do all day? This is a shambles.

imurdaddy

Cork is fecked as long as DAA at the Helm, I can see the tactics they used on snn on ork!

DAA claimed to try every thing in their power's to grow shannon but all bs! Ork is doomed under DAA.
SNN is growing pax numbers every month, MRO, maintenance, and logistics, with a new 777 hanger online this year.

DAA =Dublin Airport only dont care about snn or ork

geneva geneva4444

I must say the Cork situation really fascinates me. Looking at the new Shannon model, on the face of it a similar re-structuring at Cork could only be a positive. At least one would think anyway. Getting free of the DAA (who have been exposed by the new SNN model as only caring about Dublin) would be a logical step if Cork could get it done. Currently, Dublin's passenger percentage of the Irish market far outweighs the percentage of people who would ideally like to fly out of Dublin as a first choice. There would be a lot higher demand for Cork than one would surmise based on recent figures. It's purely a lack of competitiveness that these routes are all going out of Dublin.

@Jack1985 - I accept that some of the new Ryanair flights out of SNN have simply been transferred from Cork but my feeling is that if Cork could get free from the DAA and get themselves being competitive again, then its Dublin that they would start stealing routes from... which is the way it should go by right. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a couple of transatlantic flights out of Cork if that were to happen. There is huge demand for the U.S runs at the moment. United, American, Shamrock, Transat, Cactus, Westjet and perhaps one or two more I've forgotten off the top of my head are all doing runs out of either SNN or DUB. These flights have all been wedged this summer or so I've been told. The demand for one or two out of Cork is most definitely there.... they just need to get competitive first. As was mentioned previously, the second city should be doing much better than it currently is.

Tenger

fr336 wrote: »

How on earth can FR get away with forcing other airlines out of an airport, then shelving the same routes themselves? It does both the airport (and its stakeholders) and passengers an unbelievable, economically costly disservice. Just what do governments do all day? This is a shambles.

Its the same free market that allows StarBucks to open either side of a local coffee shop in a US city, forcing it to close, then closing one of its own shops. Its predatory form of market protection.

L1011

Cork would have extreme difficulty getting pre-clearance - meaning that US TATL would be very unattractive compared to Shannon.

Jack1985

geneva geneva4444 wrote: »

@Jack1985 - I accept that some of the new Ryanair flights out of SNN have simply been transferred from Cork but my feeling is that if Cork could get free from the DAA and get themselves being competitive again, then its Dublin that they would start stealing routes from... which is the way it should go by right. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a couple of transatlantic flights out of Cork if that were to happen. There is huge demand for the U.S runs at the moment. United, American, Shamrock, Transat, Cactus, Westjet and perhaps one or two more I've forgotten off the top of my head are all doing runs out of either SNN or DUB. These flights have all been wedged this summer or so I've been told. The demand for one or two out of Cork is most definitely there.... they just need to get competitive first. As was mentioned previously, the second city should be doing much better than it currently is.

I totally agree with you, we need to have 3 competing airports. If Cork was given control by an International consortium an example MAG (unlikely), then the change in management I believe could see a drastic change in the airport's future, it is unfortunate that the DAA don't seem to be able to have oversight past DUB - But that's the way it is. Regards transatlantic, JetBlue and WestJet interestingly enough have both publicly state they wanted to establish Cork routes, JetBlue stating Cork would be there first European venture. Although USPC is a very good advantage for DUB as a connecting HUB and likewise for SNN, it's not the be all and end all. For example only last Summer, about half of Aer Lingus flights weren't pre-clearing USPC and the long-haul network was still booming. I really have always held the belief its price draws passengers, USPC may be an advantage but price is the biggest factor it's as simple as that. Definitely agree with you, the situation Cork finds itself in, is pretty ridiculous.

L1011

Jack1985 wrote: »

For example only last Summer, about half of Aer Lingus flights weren't pre-clearing USPC and the long-haul network was still booming.

2 a day wasn't it? Not half...

Jack1985

MYOB wrote: »

2 a day wasn't it? Not half...

It was half actually. The 105/109 to JFK, pre-cleared. The 123 to Chicago and 121 to MCO cleared. The 137/139 to BOS, 125 to ORD didn't clear in S13. There were limited days in off-season (Mar-Apr and Sep to Nov) that the 109 was able to clear.

The new arrangement, means all flights pre-clear.

roundymac

What suits the DAA re lack of growth in Cork is that people are taking the bus to Dublin and flying from there with both EI and FR, this of coarse suits both of them as well. They really are stalking one another in ORK, copying one anothers routes. If Cork gets the same deal from the Government that O'Leary will start to play SNN off ORK and vica-versa until one or the other breaks. I flew fron Dublin this year to Vienna and swore I will never do so agin, having to drive past Cork airport (10mins from where I live) nearly killed me.:mad:

fr336

Tenger wrote: »

Its the same free market that allows StarBucks to open either side of a local coffee shop in a US city, forcing it to close, then closing one of its own shops. Its predatory form of market protection.

Yeah, predatory not competitive.

highlydebased

roundymac wrote: »

What suits the DAA re lack of growth in Cork is that people are taking the bus to Dublin and flying from there with both EI and FR, this of coarse suits both of them as well. They really are stalking one another in ORK, copying one anothers routes. If Cork gets the same deal from the Government that O'Leary will start to play SNN off ORK and vica-versa until one or the other breaks. I flew fron Dublin this year to Vienna and swore I will never do so agin, having to drive past Cork airport (10mins from where I live) nearly killed me.:mad:

Buses to Dublin from all corners of the country every hour of the day and night have made it very difficult for both Cork and Shannon. Given how price sensitive people have become they have no trouble getting a bus in the small hours to Dublin for a saving however small on a flight- even if only to London where there are plentiful options from ORK/SNN/KIR etc! Why is public transport so poor into other airports? Irregular buses, complicated timetables, long routes, expensive fares....it wouldn't be difficult to fix!

flazio

Henry Ford III wrote: »

Can't see much of a long term future for Knock. Not enough population nor traffic to support it.

The motorway from Galway when completed will be another nail in it's coffin.

The motorway is going both ways to Shannon and Knock.
I don't think any further airports are going in the direction of Galway Airport. Knock seems to be doing OK and Shannon as has been mentioned has maintenance and it's ever so popular military connection service to keep it going.

man98

What I see is:
Dublin at 30M passengers
Cork at 2 5M passengers.
Shannon at 1.3M passengers, as I don't see many more destinations Shannon could possibly fly to, unless daily JFK and Boston services bump it up a good bit.
Knock at 1M passengers, without Sligo and Galway airports, it can Hoover up most of the west coast's traffic.
Kerry at 400k passengers, services to London, Dublin (PSO), Manchester and Hahn could all be possible unless Ryanair decide to cut Hahn and throw on services elsewhere, although their 175 new 737s can only be a plus.
Waterford at 150k or 200k. I know I'm extremely optimistic here, but with BA Cityflyer, Flybe and Cityjet all beginning more flights to Ireland, I believe Waterford - London flights are just around the corner. That would bring 80k passengers, added to 30k traveling to Manchester and Birmingham. I also see 2 or 3 weekly flights to Paris or Amsterdam. These are estimates by the way.
Donegal at 50 or 60k. I would say the PSO to Dublin will remain, as will Glasgow flights with Loganair. I wouldn't be overly surprised if flights to Birmingham or Manchester began.
Sligo has the Coast Guard helicopter as well as plenty of private aircraft, commercial services might come back but I wouldn't bet on it.
Connemara, Inishmore, Inishman and Inisheer services will remain, the government won't cut them but frequencies may be reduced.

highlydebased

man98 wrote: »

What I see is:

Shannon at 1.3M passengers, as I don't see many more destinations Shannon could possibly fly to, unless daily JFK and Boston services bump it up a good bit.

Shannon should be well over 1.5m this year- don't see another huge decline down the road either

man98

As long as Aer Lingus don't pull out of SNN again, it should keep all transatlantic flights. I discovered only 2 months ago that EI weren't doing JFK all year round

roundymac

man98 wrote: »

As long as Aer Lingus don't pull out of SNN again, it should keep all transatlantic flights. I discovered only 2 months ago that EI weren't doing JFK all year round

They are now doing all year round with the 757s.

Van.Bosch

man98 wrote: »

As long as Aer Lingus don't pull out of SNN again, it should keep all transatlantic flights. I discovered only 2 months ago that EI weren't doing JFK all year round

If EI switched all T/A aircraft to DUB would they make more money on them I wonder?

man98

Van.Bosch wrote: »

If EI switched all T/A aircraft to DUB would they make more money on them I wonder?

While they might make more money, I bet everyone would kick up a massive fuss. They left Waterford for that reason, WAT - LTN made a good wedge until the day they cancelled it.

L1011

roundymac wrote: »

They are now doing all year round with the 757s.

Is JFK not suspended for Jan 15? Thought it was the victim to allow a 757 assist in the 330 cabin refresh over this winter

b757

MYOB wrote: »

Is JFK not suspended for Jan 15? Thought it was the victim to allow a 757 assist in the 330 cabin refresh over this winter

Not operating from the 4th Jan - 22nd Mar

Tenger

roundymac wrote: »

They are now doing all year round with the 757s.

As above...only the SNN-BOS is remaining 'year round'. Still an improvement for SNN from the suspension of T/A flights over the last 3 years in Jan/Feb/Mar.

JCX BXC

man98 wrote: »

What I see is:
Dublin at 30M passengers
Cork at 2 5M passengers.
Shannon at 1.3M passengers, as I don't see many more destinations Shannon could possibly fly to, unless daily JFK and Boston services bump it up a good bit.
Knock at 1M passengers, without Sligo and Galway airports, it can Hoover up most of the west coast's traffic.
Kerry at 400k passengers, services to London, Dublin (PSO), Manchester and Hahn could all be possible unless Ryanair decide to cut Hahn and throw on services elsewhere, although their 175 new 737s can only be a plus.
Waterford at 150k or 200k. I know I'm extremely optimistic here, but with BA Cityflyer, Flybe and Cityjet all beginning more flights to Ireland, I believe Waterford - London flights are just around the corner. That would bring 80k passengers, added to 30k traveling to Manchester and Birmingham. I also see 2 or 3 weekly flights to Paris or Amsterdam. These are estimates by the way.
Donegal at 50 or 60k. I would say the PSO to Dublin will remain, as will Glasgow flights with Loganair. I wouldn't be overly surprised if flights to Birmingham or Manchester began.
Sligo has the Coast Guard helicopter as well as plenty of private aircraft, commercial services might come back but I wouldn't bet on it.
Connemara, Inishmore, Inishman and Inisheer services will remain, the government won't cut them but frequencies may be reduced.

So in 10 years with a direct motorway from galway and limerick to shannon, it will only have 1.3mil passengers, while knock has 1m? That would be assuming all of galway will travel to knock, which I highly doubt.

Henry Ford III

Carnacalla wrote: »

So in 10 years with a direct motorway from galway and limerick to shannon, it will only have 1.3mil passengers, while knock has 1m? That would be assuming all of galway will travel to knock, which I highly doubt.

Agreed. Chalk and cheese comparison.

Shannon has one of the longest runways in Western Europe and can cope with any size of aircraft currently in service. It also has significant infrastructure for aircraft repairs and maintenence. It has plenty of ramp space, and departure gates too.

Knock has none of the above and actually uses tractor mower sized vehicles to transport luggage

http://www.irelandwestairport.com/images/airport_tech2.jpg

man98

Knock is still on the up, I believe. As long as Ryanair keep increasing flights from there. Knock has a decent sized runway too.

JCX BXC

man98 wrote: »

Knock is still on the up, I believe. As long as Ryanair keep increasing flights from there. Knock has a decent sized runway too.

I cannot see ryanair increaseing flights. I'd say knock has hit as high as it will go for a while this year. Its only a matter of time before Ryanair start withdrawing. Knock has a decent runway, but Shannons is still bigger.

fr336

Carnacalla wrote: »

I cannot see ryanair increaseing flights. I'd say knock has hit as high as it will go for a while this year. Its only a matter of time before Ryanair start withdrawing. Knock has a decent runway, but Shannons is still bigger.

Why?

And of course Shannon's runway is bigger...that's one of the biggest thing it's known for. Perhaps one of the only attractions nowadays from what I hear. I also believe that Knock earn their way, yet Shannon is heavily subsidised.

LoonyLovegood

Speaking as someone who has travelled to Dublin and Cork airports from Galway, a major issue with Knock is the €10 charge. It's more expensive for me to get to Knock than Dublin or Cork, and when I add the charge in it's totally uneconomical for me to fly from there.

JCX BXC

fr336 wrote: »

Why?

And of course Shannon's runway is bigger...that's one of the biggest thing it's known for. Perhaps one of the only attractions nowadays from what I hear. I also believe that Knock earn their way, yet Shannon is heavily subsidised.

Why will Ryanair withdraw? Because Ryanair tends to play the airports in the west against each other. Ryanair is rarely good. They almost ruined Shannon. They pulled a lot from cork. They are starting to restock Shannon and have stocked knock. They will pull from knock when a better deal comes along.

Also

Shannon is Not as heavily subsidised as cork.

I'm not against knock, I just don't think it will have 1mil passengers while Shannon has 1.3mil.

highlydebased

Runway length not a concern for Ryanair in context of SNN/Knock and not a reason to pull service

Knock is getting to the stage where it is starting to become a victim of it's own success- it doesn't have enough room to physically handle any more flights during the limited hours in which it opens during the summer. Certainly some days are quieter than others and they will have to be the ones expansion happen on. I believe they have a plan to expand their apron but time will tell how that works out.

Also don't think any subsidy paid to SNN on an ongoing basis any more? Unsure on that however.

fr336

Thanks for the info Carnacalla and highlydebased, much appreciated. FR get on my nerves more and more - they shouldn't be allowed to pull these tricks, especially since ironically it's all in the name of "competition".

highlydebased - what hours does Knock keep during summer and the rest of the year?