King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2014

tryfix

A small ( 8) but select field contest this year's renewal of this important race.

Telescope ( OR 123 [SIZE=-1]DI = 0.76 ) [/SIZE]2/1

Taghrooda ( OR 116[SIZE=-1] DI = 0.74 )[/SIZE] 9/4

Magician ( OR 124 [SIZE=-1] DI = 1.00 )[/SIZE] 9/2

Eagle Top ( OR 118 [SIZE=-1] DI = 0.73 ) [/SIZE]6/1

Mukhadram ( OR 121 [SIZE=-1]DI = 1.46 ) [/SIZE]12/1

Trading Leather ( OR 119 [SIZE=-1] DI = 1.15 ) [/SIZE]12/1

Romsdal ( OR 115 [SIZE=-1]DI = 0.74 ) [/SIZE] 25/1

Leitir Mor ( OR 107 [SIZE=-1] DI = 1.89 ) [/SIZE]125/1


You could give everything bar Leitir Mor a chance of at least finishing in the frame.




The last ten winners were

Novellist ( OR 119[SIZE=-1] DI = 0.43 ) 13/2

Danedream ( OR 128 [/SIZE][SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1]DI = 0.81 [/SIZE]) [/SIZE]9/1

Nathaniel ( [SIZE=-1]OR 115 DI = 0.81 [/SIZE]) 11/2

Harbinger ( OR 123 [SIZE=-1] DI = 1.33 ) 4/1

Conduit ( OR 125 [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]DI = 0.76 ) 13/8f

Duke Of Marmalade ( OR? [/SIZE][SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1]DI = 1.38 ) [/SIZE] 4/6f

Dylan Thomas ( OR ? [/SIZE][SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1] DI = 1.55 ) [/SIZE] [/SIZE]5/4f

Hurricane Run ( OR ? [SIZE=-1] DI = 0.57 ) 5/6f[/SIZE]

Azamour ( [SIZE=-1] OR ? DI = 1.67 ) [/SIZE]5/2f

Doyen ( OR 124 [SIZE=-1] DI = 0.91 ) [/SIZE]11/10f


I can't have Taghrooda on price, she's not yet proven at this level, although she has a great trainer and she won the Oaks with plenty in hand.

I'd reluctantly drop Mukhadram on price rather than form, for a Coral Eclipse winner he's just too big at 12/1 for there to be much confidence behind his ability to win this.

I'm coming around to Telescope a bit, he has good enough form but is still too short considering the 3yos could be anything.

Romsdal and Trading Leather are place prospects, Romsdal barely.

Eagle Top is my idea of Gosden's best chance. Came the same King Edward route that Nathaniel did and already better on pre King George form than Nathaniel was.

Magician is the best horse in the race on an OR of 124, he's a bit inconsistent, but he's coming into the race on his best form and 12f on firm ground is his ideal trip.

My idea of the first three is Magician, Telescope, Eagle Top.

Mgoraf

I can't see taghrooda being beaten with the amount of weight she is given. Think Eagle top is very interesting he was very good at ascot.

longshotvalue

King George Ascot 3:50

I think that the market has got too excited about the prospected of both Telescope and Taghrooda here. It’s not certain that either has really beaten anything yet. Eagle Top could be anything but basically an unknown and as such isn’t value at 5/1. The more I look at it the more I end up looking at Trading Leather as the value here. He is a very consistent animal and has looked as if 12 furlongs is his best trip. He was a good second in the Eclipse behind my selection for that race Mukhadram, who had got away somewhat early in the straight. He was 2nd in this last year but I wouldn’t be surprised if he has improved this year and the current 12/1 available looks about 4 points too big. He is a tempting large EW bet but that isn’t really my thing at these odds so I’ll go for a smaller win bet

1 Point win 16 Betfair

FIVE2_THREE

And this is what happens when Coolmore doesn't support a Group one race. the most prestigious summer race in the northern hemisphere reduced to 8 runners.

Gregk961

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

And this is what happens when Coolmore doesn't support a Group one race. the most prestigious summer race in the northern hemisphere reduced to 8 runners.

It's still a good quality field, I don't see how 4 Ballydoyle runners would change that. Or do you just like to mention how great they are in every possible thread?

tryfix

Mgoraf wrote: »

I can't see taghrooda being beaten with the amount of weight she is given. Think Eagle top is very interesting he was very good at ascot.

Been thinking about the allowances, so I had a look at what the 3yo's achieved in the King George with their allowances.

2013. Trading Leather ( OR 118 ) 9/2 and Hillstar ( OR 111 ) 5/1 finished 2nd and 3rd in a race without much depth.

2012. Deep Brillante ( OR 118 ) 20/1 flopped.

2011. Nathaniel ( OR 115 ) 11/2 1st.

2010. Cape Blanco 9/2 ( OR 119 ) and Workforce 8/11f ( OR 128 ) finished 2nd and 5th.

2009. Alwaary 12/1 ( OR 113 ), Golden Sword 9/2 ( OR 119 ), Rockhampton ( OR 100 ) finished 4th, 5th and 8th.

2008. No 3yo runner.

2007. No 3yo runner.

2006. No 3yo runner.

2005. Oaks winner Eswarah 9/1 ( OR 117 ) 8th.

2004. Tycoon 16/1 ( OR ? ) 6th.

They perform well enough, the weight allowance certainly seems to help them place, but they're not overly advantaged by the allowances.

Harry Angstrom

Very heavy showers at Ascot today, on already watered ground. Stickels should be sacked.

jimjamcos

Eagle Top Eagle Top Eagle Top

Mgoraf

tryfix wrote: »

Been thinking about the allowances, so I had a look at what the 3yo's achieved in the King George with their allowances.

2013. Trading Leather ( OR 118 ) 9/2 and Hillstar ( OR 111 ) 5/1 finished 2nd and 3rd in a race without much depth.

2012. Deep Brillante ( OR 118 ) 20/1 flopped.

2011. Nathaniel ( OR 115 ) 11/2 1st.

2010. Cape Blanco 9/2 ( OR 119 ) and Workforce 8/11f ( OR 128 ) finished 2nd and 5th.

2009. Alwaary 12/1 ( OR 113 ), Golden Sword 9/2 ( OR 119 ), Rockhampton ( OR 100 ) finished 4th, 5th and 8th.

2008. No 3yo runner.

2007. No 3yo runner.

2006. No 3yo runner.

2005. Oaks winner Eswarah 9/1 ( OR 117 ) 8th.

2004. Tycoon 16/1 ( OR ? ) 6th.

They perform well enough, the weight allowance certainly seems to help them place, but they're not overly advantaged by the allowances.

Not many fillies there though. I think she could be potentially excellent and certainly seems to be improving with each run I wouldn't put further improvement on her Oaks run passed her. Connections skipping the Irish Oaks for this should be taken as a plus too I think they must be very confident of a very big run from her. If I were to have a bet it would be her, can't see telescope for example giving her 15 pounds and a good beating.

FortuneChip

I'm with Eagle Top, bit annoyed I didn't take it earlier as I don't think it was as short as 9/2 this morning (?)

FIVE2_THREE

Gregk961 wrote: »

It's still a good quality field, I don't see how 4 Ballydoyle runners would change that. Or do you just like to mention how great they are in every possible thread?

I like to make money.and the more horses entered in a race offers better money making opportunities. now, if you prefer 8 horses in a group one race with a 2/1 horse leading the market then I can't convince you to see things my way. But I think I speak for most here when I say I don't prefer a consolidated market.

Gregk961

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

I like to make money.and the more horses entered in a race offers better money making opportunities. now, if you prefer 8 horses in a group one race with a 2/1 horse leading the market then I can't convince you to see things my way. But I think I speak for most here when I say I don't prefer a consolidated market.

Fair enough im not getting involved in an elongated betting debate. Your first post indicated you were more concerned "prestige" wise, i was mistaken, carry on.

FIVE2_THREE

Gregk961 wrote: »

Fair enough im not getting involved in an elongated betting debate. Your first post indicated you were more concerned "prestige" wise, i was mistaken, carry on.

Surely one should have expected more than 8 horses to turn up for a race of such magnitude, no ?

Gregk961

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

Surely one should have expected more than 8 horses to turn up for a race of such magnitude, no ?

I cant check at the moment but I have a feeling its not too far from par for the course. Wasnt there 4 runners a couple of years ago?

bellybuster12

I really think Magician is a tad over priced @5's, Trading leather @10's is tempting also. I'll either pick 1 of the 2 or leave it and enjoy the race.

tryfix

Gregk961 wrote: »

I cant check at the moment but I have a feeling its not too far from par for the course. Wasnt there 4 runners a couple of years ago?

The last ten King George's had 8, 10, 5 ( 4 finishers, Rewilding broke down horribly ), 6, 9, 8, 7, 6, 12 and 11 runners.

This year's is a decent showing particularly the quality and we can thank John Gosden for doing an Aidan O'Brien and running three runners. It just goes to show that the moaning about multiple entries from single trainers being the reason for micro fields doesn't hold up.

madmoose

Eagle top all the way, 8/1 looks a steal now.

FIVE2_THREE

tryfix wrote: »

The last ten King George's had 8, 10, 5 ( 4 finishers, Rewilding broke down horribly ), 6, 9, 8, 7, 6, 12 and 11 runners.

This year's is a decent showing particularly the quality and we can thank John Gosden for doing an Aidan O'Brien and running three runners. It just goes to show that the moaning about multiple entries from single trainers being the reason for micro fields doesn't hold up.

Indeed, the hatred for coolmore is clear in relation to some. Gosden has 3 in and not one word spoken about it. where is the continuity ?

FortuneChip

Gregk961 wrote: »

I cant check at the moment but I have a feeling its not too far from par for the course. Wasnt there 4 runners a couple of years ago?

Six ran in 2010, and it remains one of my favourite races to this day, despite backing Cape Blanco.

Gringo180

Theres a lot of horses that wont like this rain, Trading Leather, Mukhadram, Magician would of liked the ground on the firm side of good, I think Eagle Top could be slightly over rated he was hard at it a long way from home LTO but in fairness to him he did look impressive in the last furlong so I could be wrong but can't be backing him at his price. I think Tagroodha and Telescope are the one's to beat, 2 that might like a bit of ease in the ground (especially the Stoute colt). One I like at big odds is Romsdal, this horse will love a bit of cut in the ground and has a great attitude so I think I will side with him each way at a massive 25/1, wasn't beaten too far in the Derby and I think he will have improved since that run.

dilinja1

Gringo180 wrote: »

Theres a lot of horses that wont like this rain, Trading Leather, Mukhadram, Magician would of liked the ground on the firm side of good, I think Eagle Top could be slightly over rated he was hard at it a long way from home LTO but in fairness to him he did look impressive in the last furlong so I could be wrong but can't be backing him at his price. I think Tagroodha and Telescope are the one's to beat, 2 that might like a bit of ease in the ground (especially the Stoute colt). One I like at big odds is Romsdal, this horse will love a bit of cut in the ground and has a great attitude so I think I will side with him each way at a massive 25/1, wasn't beaten too far in the Derby and I think he will have improved since that run.

Its 20 degrees over here this morning already. Will be touching 30 degrees by the time the race starts. The ground will be more than likely good to firm considering how well Ascot drains

Gringo180

dilinja1 wrote: »

Its 20 degrees over here this morning already. Will be touching 30 degrees by the time the race starts. The ground will be more than likely good to firm considering how well Ascot drains

Didn't know that I just looked at the good to soft description, although the forecast says theres a high chance of rain in the afternoon.

dilinja1

Gringo180 wrote: »

Didn't know that I just looked at the good to soft description, although the forecast says theres a high chance of rain in the afternoon.

The forecast is good. Was dry all night here as well. Dettori was on the Morning Line saying he expects it to be Good to firm by race time. Dettori very sweet on Taghrooda he said the Godsen stable think she is a superstar. Still leaning towards Magician myself. Will wait and see how the ground rides in the first couple of races before dipping in

Harry Angstrom

dilinja1 wrote: »

Its 20 degrees over here this morning already. Will be touching 30 degrees by the time the race starts. The ground will be more than likely good to firm considering how well Ascot drains

It possibly might go good/firm on the new part of the track, but it will be no better than good on the old part of the track. Somebody should take away Chris Stickels's watering can permanently.

dilinja1

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

It possibly might go good/firm on the new part of the track, but it will be no better than good on the old part of the track. Somebody should take away Chris Stickels's watering can permanently.

the bookies will be delighted after the battering they took at RA. I wouldnt mind but thunderstorms were forecasted to happen at some point during the week. Its not as if rain was unexpected.

Warper

dilinja1 wrote: »

The forecast is good. Was dry all night here as well. Dettori was on the Morning Line saying he expects it to be Good to firm by race time. Dettori very sweet on Taghrooda he said the Godsen stable think she is a superstar. Still leaning towards Magician myself. Will wait and see how the ground rides in the first couple of races before dipping in

Sorry about sidetracking but Dettori say anything about Isaila in the 2.05,i was very impressed with her last time

dilinja1

Warper wrote: »

Sorry about sidetracking but Dettori say anything about Isaila in the 2.05,i was very impressed with her last time

Yes he seems very sweet on her, she has the form in the book compared to the fav, but that would not be hard as the fav has only ran once. Have had her in the tracker since the Albany might wait after the first race before backing. Malabar won comfortably yesterday as well

bellybuster12

She is special, looks like she is Arc bound.

tryfix

Top class Taghrooda, as good as any recent winner and the most impressive thing is that she looked so comfortable at the end of the race and afterwards. The ground certainly didn't help Magician or Trading Leather, but Mukhadram certainly ran to form and that's the bench mark, along with Eagle Top. The equivalent of a 128 run from a colt but with the sex allowance of 3lbs excluded she ran to about 125 IMO.


She's good enough to win an Arc and better than Australia, suited on Pedigree and form by the stamina sapping soft ground likely to be found on Arc day. Don't think she'd be suited to 10f at all.

kfallon

Sea The Stars to sire first 2 home in The Arc???

tryfix

kfallon wrote: »

Sea The Stars to sire first 2 home in The Arc???

Quite possibly, with Taghrooda in the King George she was either going to step well up on previous form and do something awesome or she was going to stagnate.

I get the feeling that Sea The Moon is another horse who's either going to win the Arc or prove to not be the superstar he appeared to be the last day in Germany.

The ball is in Ballydoyle's corner now, Australia needs to put up or shut up by beating a decent field of older horses...

Backstreet Moyes

tryfix wrote: »

Quite possibly, with Taghrooda in the King George she was either going to step well up on previous form and do something awesome or she was going to stagnate.

I get the feeling that Sea The Moon is another horse who's either going to win the Arc or prove to not be the superstar he appeared to be the last day in Germany.

The ball is in Ballydoyle's corner now, Australia needs to put up or shut up by beating a decent field of older horses...

Australia won't go if it's soft which it usually always is for the ARC.

dilinja1

just seen the race -so comfortable - will be heeding every word from Dettori during Goodwood - spot on again

FIVE2_THREE

I don't see Taghrooda putting up a performance like this over a rain soaked longchamp. not against those french horses who train in the rain of chantilly everyday.

Gringo180

tryfix wrote: »

Top class Taghrooda, as good as any recent winner and the most impressive thing is that she looked so comfortable at the end of the race and afterwards. The ground certainly didn't help Magician or Trading Leather, but Mukhadram certainly ran to form and that's the bench mark, along with Eagle Top. The equivalent of a 128 run from a colt but with the sex allowance of 3lbs excluded she ran to about 125 IMO.


She's good enough to win an Arc and better than Australia, suited on Pedigree and form by the stamina sapping soft ground likely to be found on Arc day. Don't think she'd be suited to 10f at all.

Great post as usual and totally agree especially with the last bit, she has buckets loads of stamina on the dams side is she a close relation to Enzeli?? Who was a top class stayer in his own right. Beautiful filly with a great temperament.

Peintre Celebre

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

I don't see Taghrooda putting up a performance like this over a rain soaked longchamp. not against those french horses who train in the rain of chantilly everyday.

And which of the French nags bar Treve could finish in front of her. A hound won the Grand Prix de Paris, Avenir Certain or Treve the only two that could and I wouldn't be confident of the former once she steps out of 3 year old company. Ectot could if he returns but he is a long while out now

FIVE2_THREE

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

And which of the French nags bar Treve could finish in front of her. A hound won the Grand Prix de Paris, Avenir Certain or Treve the only two that could and I wouldn't be confident of the former once she steps out of 3 year old company. Ectot could if he returns but he is a long while out now

The photo is still blurry at the moment. we are still 3 months from the Arc so I can't buy into the hype of any horse including Taghoora. Her fans should celebrate today's win but save all the Arc talk for 3 months because this is racing and anything can happen.

Warper

She beat a horse that has never won a G1

tryfix

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

And which of the French nags bar Treve could finish in front of her. A hound won the Grand Prix de Paris, Avenir Certain or Treve the only two that could and I wouldn't be confident of the former once she steps out of 3 year old company. Ectot could if he returns but he is a long while out now

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

The photo is still blurry at the moment. we are still 3 months from the Arc so I can't buy into the hype of any horse including Taghoora. Her fans should celebrate today's win but save all the Arc talk for 3 months because this is racing and anything can happen.

The Japanese have a strong challenge this year spearheaded by World Champion Just Away and Gold Ship.

A Frenchie could emerge from the trials quite easily and Australia only has to improve 5lbs on his Epsom Derby win to match Taghrooda's King George performance.

Australia had a very easy race in the Irish Derby, he's got gears like Sea The Stars had, while Taghrooda is a powerful stayer built like a tank. It will be quite a match if those two meet up. Sea The Moon is another powerfully built animal in contrast to the wiry Australia who may be an awful lot harder to pass than people expect..

Harry Angstrom

Even though I was impressed with Taghrooda today, 5/1 is a bit of a silly price for the Arc, considering the possibility of softish ground at Longchamp, and I can't ever remember a British 3yo filly ever winning an Arc, so the stats are against her.

tryfix

Warper wrote: »

She beat a horse that has never won a G1

She clocked a very good time, considering the ground. It was the real deal today and she did it comfortably, the lung busting pace played into her hands, but she has already shown plenty of tactical 12f speed in the Oaks.

Harry Angstrom

Just checking the St Leger prices, and Eagle Top is a very tasty 8/1 with Paddy Power. Obviously he's no certainty to run but he'll be a lot shorter than 8/1 if he runs, and surely John Gosden must realise that he won't win an Arc with him, so the Leger would seem the more sensible route. Worth a small speculative bet, I reckon.

Peintre Celebre

Who was the last three year old British filly to go there with a real chance Harry. I never pay any heed to stats sure she couldn't do it today according to stats.

Treve and Zarkava both won it as three year old fillies, throwing the word 'British' in there is just being pedantic to suit your argument. 3 year old fillies had a poor record in it before those two though.

And wasn't Danedream 3 when she won or was she four

jimjamcos

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Just checking the St Leger prices, and Eagle Top is a very tasty 8/1 with Paddy Power. Obviously he's no certainty to run but he'll be a lot shorter than 8/1 if he runs, and surely John Gosden must realise that he won't win an Arc with him, so the Leger would seem the more sensible route. Worth a small speculative bet, I reckon.

I'd hold off...

Rory Jiwani Stan James PR man tweeted earlier:

"Lady Bamford's racing manager Hugo Lascelles on Eagle Top: "Very pleased with him. He is in the Leger but I don't think he will go there."

Peintre Celebre

Actually forgot how bad a record fillies had in the Arc, Zarkava was the first since Urban Sea. They have fairly dominated since

andyman

Warper wrote: »

She beat a horse that has never won a G1

...but a G1 winner was third?

Itziger

Warper wrote: »

She beat a horse that has never won a G1

You're taking the pi$$, right?

Cos the race I watched she beat more than one horse. And a few of the horses she beat were G1 winners.

Panrich

Warper wrote: »

She beat a horse that has never won a G1

And yet was favourite to win against G1 winners. The fact that he ran up to expectations and came second shows that the form looks fairly solid.
She's very much like her sire temperament wise. That will stand to her wherever she goes from here.

KTF1980

Looks a superstar to me but have to take the weight allowance into considerations. That being said the ARC look like it could be some race with the Sea The Stars duo, Taghrooda and Sea The Moon potentially taking on Australia.. Eagle Top looks like he will win a big race soon too..

jimjamcos

Little Lion, a well beaten second to See The Moon lto, has just beaten Noble Mission in German grp 1.

hucklebuck

jimjamcos wrote: »

Little Lion, a well beaten second to See The Moon lto, has just beaten Noble Mission in German grp 1.

Missed that, solid bit of form there. Noble beat Telescope and Magician this season iirc.

Still backing STM, Taghrooda was very impressive but still think STM is the one to beat.

Why are so many talking about the ground being soft for the Arc and ruling horses out on that basis? It has also been good and good to soft in recent years.