May CSO Data

kennyb3

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexmay2014/

April thread here

Summary:
Dublin House prices are 44.4% lower than at their highest level in April 2007 (rose by 4.4% in the month of May 2014 and were 22.4% higher compared to a year earlier)

Dublin Apartments are now 53.4% lower than their peak in February 2007 (rose by 1.9% in the month of May 2014 and were 19.5% higher compared to a year earlier)

Dublin Residential property prices are 46.3% lower than at their highest level in March 2007 (rose by 4.2% in the month of May 2014 and were 22.0% higher than a year ago)

Residential properties in the Rest of Ireland are 47.0% lower than highest level in September 2007 (rose by 0.6% in May 2014 and were 1.8% higher compared to a year earlier)

Overall, the national index is 45.1% lower than its highest level in September 2007 (rose by 2.3% in May 2014 and were 10.6% higher compared to a year earlier)

superman28

22.4% annual rise is quite shocking and clearly unsustainable.. it is clear that it is the government's intention to interfere with the market and drive up prices as much as possible, similar to the disasterous policies of the Fianna Fail government before it.

Reasons,
- tax incentives for investors
- strangle supply via nama and state controlled banks
- endless red tape and high contruction costs
- no reform to the inadequate planning process
- no lending to developers
- land hoarding is allowed to continue tax free

The house of cards is back and worse than ever,,

ionapaul

Anecdotally (not sure how much weight anyone can put on a stranger's words ) I know of two sales that have broken down over the past week, one because the bank's valuers didn't agree with the sale agreed price, no idea about the other one. In our house search we've come across so many sales falling through, it must be so common at the moment with the crazy bidding wars going on, people bidding up, up and up without being sure if they'll get the dough to buy the place!

I honestly think the CSO data lags the facts on the ground by a few months, and that we've hit a plateau in terms of prices - though even at that we all know lots of people who've just stopped looking as a result of frustration and that feeling that we're smack-bang in the middle of another unsustainable bubble phase...

whiteandlight

22.4% annual rise is terrifyingly boomlike. It simply shouldn't be running at that level and there does need to be something done.

Even some simply things like regulation of estate agents for example All bids must be passed to the owners, bids must be provable (and not invented to push up prices). Transparency would go a long way towards helping things and wouldn't cost anything

Mr.McLovin

superman28 wrote: »

- tax incentives for investors
- strangle supply via nama and state controlled banks
- endless red tape and high contruction costs
- no reform to the inadequate planning process
- no lending to developers
- land hoarding is allowed to continue tax free

FG housing strategy

jd1983

A monthly increase of 4.2% in Dublin is astonishingly high, if this continued for 12 months it would be annual increase of 63.8%. When increases are that high, it's hard to argue that there isn't a bubble in Dublin...

Glenbhoy

jd1983 wrote: »

A monthly increase of 4.2% in Dublin is astonishingly high, if this continued for 12 months it would be annual increase of 63.8%. When increases are that high, it's hard to argue that there isn't a bubble in Dublin...

It's very difficult to get meaningful figures over such a short period of time. The CSO figures for the first few months of the year were showing drops in prices and that clearly wasn't reflecting what was going on on the ground.

There's certainly a significant lag between CSO figures and reality, cash sales (which recent estimates have put at 55% of the market) are not included.

Also bear in mind that with the relatively small volumes of sales at present, monthly figures can be easily skewed for no apparent reason.

One final point, in agreement with Iona Paul, I know many people who have decided to opt out of the market for the time being and I'm also hearing stories of vastly reduced numbers attending viewings, sales falling through and vendors getting nervous. Of course there's probably quite a bit of confirmation bias there and I'm ignoring all the stories indicating the market is still rising, but.....

What I do know for sure is that the two most recent viewings I have attended (South City, desireable area, 650K odd), numbers were very low on the ground and significantly, both properties are still on the market over 2 months later.

kennyb3

Glenbhoy wrote: »

It's very difficult to get meaningful figures over such a short period of time. The CSO figures for the first few months of the year were showing drops in prices and that clearly wasn't reflecting what was going on on the ground.

Also bear in mind that with the relatively small volumes of sales at present, monthly figures can be easily skewed for no apparent reason.

+1, taking a monthly figure and annualising it is just plain ridiculous.

After such a big upswing this month I wouldn't be surprised to see a much smaller rise or even a fall in some sort of 'smoothing out' next month.

Mr.McLovin

jd1983 wrote: »

A monthly increase of 4.2% in Dublin is astonishingly high, if this continued for 12 months it would be annual increase of 63.8%. When increases are that high, it's hard to argue that there isn't a bubble in Dublin...

I don't about bubbles or what not but I do know our economy even in Dublin with our 'green shoots' does not reflect 22.4% increase in house prices even if you subscribed to the bottom over shot.

jd1983

kennyb3 wrote: »

+1, taking a monthly figure and annualising it is just plain ridiculous.

After such a big upswing this month I wouldn't be surprised to see a much smaller rise or even a fall in some sort of 'smoothing out' next month.

Firstly, the CSO monthly index is actually a 3 month average, so it's already smoothed out to a certain extent.

Secondly I was just annualising this figure to better illustrate how massive a jump this really is. It's the biggest monthly cso jump since the boom times and therefore I believe that rises of such magnitude should be taken seriously by people who influence policy relating to the property market (i.e. the cabinet, central bank etc.).

Personally I reckon there is a bubble in Dublin at the moment but property markets are difficult to call. I take it from your response that you think we'll eventually see the 'soft landing' that was talked about so much in 06/07

kennyb3

jd1983 wrote: »

Firstly, the CSO monthly index is actually a 3 month average, so it's already smoothed out to a certain extent.

Secondly I was just annualising this figure to better illustrate how massive a jump this really is. It's the biggest monthly cso jump since the boom times and therefore I believe that rises of such magnitude should be taken seriously by people who influence policy relating to the property market (i.e. the cabinet, central bank etc.).

Personally I reckon there is a bubble in Dublin at the moment but property markets are difficult to call. I take it from your response that you think we'll eventually see the 'soft landing' that was talked about so much in 06/07

Look at my posting history going back on this section or on the propertypin- I don't think you'll find I've ever mentioned the words soft landing (or ever been bullish) so not sure where your bull is coming from. So less of the of suggesting what I think. I ve said many times these rises are unsustainable and it will all end in tears (again).

My point was simply I doubt we'll see 4.4pc again next month, it was a prediction, if it's proven wrong I ll stand corrected and come back to me then.

jd1983

kennyb3 wrote: »

Look at my posting history going back on this section or on the propertypin- I don't think you'll find I've ever mentioned the words soft landing (or ever been bullish) so not sure where your bull is coming from. So less of the of suggesting what I think. I ve said many times these rises are unsustainable and it will all end in tears (again).

My point was simply I doubt we'll see 4.4pc again next month, it was a prediction, if it's proven wrong I ll stand corrected and come back to me then.

I doubt rises as high as 4.2% will become the norm and I never stated it would become the norm. My point is that 4.2% is an exceptional rise and I thought annualising this monthly rise was an effective way of illustrating how exceptional this rise was.

I have no interest in searching through forums to find out what your opinions are on the property market, I'll only go on how you responded to my post.