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Golf Stats Book: Every Shot Counts by Mark Broadie

  • 23-06-2014 03:20PM
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,349 ✭✭✭


    Robert Rock got into awful trouble in Fota on Saturday after driving his ball into the trees on 15.

    Howard Clark asks his caddie "Why didn't he use the 3 wood off the tee?"

    Caddy says Rock believes that statistically the driver is always the better because he read it in the book 'Every Shot Counts'.

    This is the book on Amazon.

    Every Shot Counts: Using the Revolutionary Strokes Gained Approach to Improve Your Golf Performance and Strategy
    http://www.amazon.com/Every-Shot-Counts-Revolutionary-Performance/dp/1592407501

    Andrew Rice says it is "the most important golf book I have ever read."

    Anybody read it?


«134

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 802 ✭✭✭m r c


    I hadnt heard of it before but I like the reviews, I ordered just now off the book depository. It might be worth a read. I'll let you know my thoughts after reading. Btw thanks for putting it up here


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,635 ✭✭✭newport2


    I'm in the process of reading it, it's interesting.

    Certainly makes you re-think the game and where the scoring lies in it.

    One of the key things the author says is that putting is over-rated - not that it's unimportant, just over-rated, and then goes on to pretty much verify that with the figures. He invented the Strokes Gained Putting stat that PGA Tour has now adapted. First real stat that the players feel accurately reflect putting performance.

    Would definitely recommend reading.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,505 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    newport2 wrote: »
    I'm in the process of reading it, it's interesting.

    Certainly makes you re-think the game and where the scoring lies in it.

    One of the key things the author says is that putting is over-rated - not that it's unimportant, just over-rated, and then goes on to pretty much verify that with the figures. He invented the Strokes Gained Putting stat that PGA Tour has now adapted. First real stat that the players feel accurately reflect putting performance.

    Would definitely recommend reading.


    Having a hard time accepting his points about putting importance.
    The margin for error in putting is way lower than with every other shot.
    You can miss a fairway and not impact your score. You can miss a green and not impact your score. Miss a putt and it impacts your score immediately.

    I think he is missing the wood for the trees by using stats to "prove" his argument.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 391 ✭✭Naz_st


    GreeBo wrote: »
    You can miss a fairway and not impact your score. .

    Not the way I miss a fairway you can't! When I miss a fairway I'm also often missing a ball! :)

    Seriously though, what you're saying is only treating "hit" / "miss" as very binary - which is not really accurate.

    E.g. "You can miss a green and not impact your score" whilst this is strictly true as a statement, it ignores the probabilities involved. E.g. since the chances of a birdie are seriously improved by hitting the green than not, you can work out that the average score on a par 4 say when you hit the green is 3.9, but the average score when you miss the green is 4.2, so in reality missing the green costs you .3 of a shot (in the long run).

    "Miss a putt and it impacts your score immediately"

    Again, this is too binary. I would never consider not holing a 30ft putt as a "miss" (in the sense that I was likely to make it and somehow messed it up, which is how I think about "missing" the fairway).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,036 ✭✭✭Loire


    GreeBo wrote: »
    Having a hard time accepting his points about putting importance.
    The margin for error in putting is way lower than with every other shot.
    You can miss a fairway and not impact your score. You can miss a green and not impact your score. Miss a putt and it impacts your score immediately.

    I think he is missing the wood for the trees by using stats to "prove" his argument.

    I haven't read the book but from what I've Googled he seems to put the emphasis on 4 footers and less - outside that most will miss them so don't worry about these.

    I think a lot of it depends too on where you play. The stats he has probably come from PGA tournaments with long, open fairways like Fota last weekend. Clearly semi-accurate longer drives here are rewarded more so that short and straight. Somewhere tight & narrow and the obvious play is fairway everytime...


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,635 ✭✭✭newport2


    GreeBo wrote: »
    Having a hard time accepting his points about putting importance.
    The margin for error in putting is way lower than with every other shot.
    You can miss a fairway and not impact your score. You can miss a green and not impact your score. Miss a putt and it impacts your score immediately.

    I think he is missing the wood for the trees by using stats to "prove" his argument.


    Have you read it?

    Miss a putt and it impacts your score in an obvious way. All missed shots impact your score, whether directly or indirectly. Miss a fairway and it might not impact on your score, or it might lead to a triple bogey. Miss a green and you've already missed the chance of having a birdie putt, which does impact your score. Not to mention the fact that 60% of the time you mightn't get up and down which has a further impact. Just because you miss a green and still walk away with a par does not mean your score was not impacted.

    Like I said, he didn't say putting was not important, just overrated in the way the stats sometimes present it. The PGA Tour and the pros appear to believe him anyway.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,635 ✭✭✭newport2


    Loire wrote: »
    I haven't read the book but from what I've Googled he seems to put the emphasis on 4 footers and less - outside that most will miss them so don't worry about these.

    I think a lot of it depends too on where you play. The stats he has probably come from PGA tournaments with long, open fairways like Fota last weekend. Clearly semi-accurate longer drives here are rewarded more so that short and straight. Somewhere tight & narrow and the obvious play is fairway everytime...

    His description was along the lines of us hearing that say, 40% of our shots are putts.

    So say 35 putts in a round.
    But 12 of these are inside 2 feet, which are missed 0.05% of the time.
    And maybe 10 outside 12 feet, which even the pros only hole 1 in every 5 of.

    Already down to 13 putts in a round where you can really make a difference.
    And if say your holing 30-40% of putts from 8 feet, the pros only hole 50% of these, with the best in the world on 57%. So you might be losing one shot per round here on a professional golfer from this distance! Whereas if you look at 5 feet and in, you could be losing 10 shots a round. Which points to where your practice should be directed. (stats above made up appart from pros 8-footers, can't remember exact figures)

    I wouldn't buy totally into everything said, but it did make me think about some stuff in a different way and how I could improve by changing things little.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,036 ✭✭✭Loire


    newport2 wrote: »
    His description was along the lines of us hearing that say, 40% of our shots are putts.

    So say 35 putts in a round.
    But 12 of these are inside 2 feet, which are missed 0.05% of the time.
    And maybe 10 outside 12 feet, which even the pros only hole 1 in every 5 of.

    Already down to 13 putts in a round where you can really make a difference.
    And if say your holing 30-40% of putts from 8 feet, the pros only hole 50% of these, with the best in the world on 57%. So you might be losing one shot per round here on a professional golfer from this distance! Whereas if you look at 5 feet and in, you could be losing 10 shots a round. Which points to where your practice should be directed. (stats above made up appart from pros 8-footers, can't remember exact figures)

    I wouldn't buy totally into everything said, but it did make me think about some stuff in a different way and how I could improve by changing things little.

    I think we're saying the same thing, from my post above...."he seems to put the emphasis on 4 footers and less - outside that most will miss them so don't worry about these".


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,635 ✭✭✭newport2


    Loire wrote: »
    I think we're saying the same thing, from my post above...."he seems to put the emphasis on 4 footers and less - outside that most will miss them so don't worry about these".

    Yes, I was backing up what you were saying, sorry if it came across as otherwise! My "5 feet and in" example above was just that - an example. It also goes into Shots Gained driving, Shot's Gained on approaches, etc, although I haven't got to that yet. It isn't all about putting by any means. So your weakness could be in any area(s).

    I think it's useful to be able to analytically highlight where you are specifically losing shots to really good golfers. Especially if it's in areas where you didn't think you were.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 238 ✭✭saintastic


    GreeBo wrote: »
    Having a hard time accepting his points about putting importance.

    I've read a good bit of the book and the key thing that I noticed was that the top 10 players on the PGA tour over a 10 year period made up more shots on the field from long game rather than short game.

    The consensus in the game is that short game is the most important part of the game so should be practiced accordingly. He is re-addressing the balance rather than completely dismissing putting/short game.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,736 ✭✭✭ssbob


    @Wombatman cheers for highlighting the book, I am definitely a numbers and stats man so will buy this one.

    As of now I am sceptical as to what side of the fence I am on, I play golf with my brother a lot whom some of you know, he is straight as anything off the tee and with his irons but his putting can be terrible at times. I however am like a left/right type of player in and out of trees and the likes but invariably get to the green in the same amount of shots as him. He on average takes 5-7 more putts than me per round. I don't think those strokes could be made up in long game but with a little practice could be made up with putting.

    All I am saying is that it may be different for high and low handicappers/pro's.

    As for Robert Rock, he is long off the tee, couldn't believe how long tbh, was no more than 80 yards out on the first and on the 2nd he hit his drive to where Alvaro Quiros hit his drive(not sure what club Alvaro used). Unfortunately didn't do the business on Sunday but his form has been poor this year.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,635 ✭✭✭newport2


    ssbob wrote: »
    As of now I am sceptical as to what side of the fence I am on, I play golf with my brother a lot whom some of you know, he is straight as anything off the tee and with his irons but his putting can be terrible at times. I however am like a left/right type of player in and out of trees and the likes but invariably get to the green in the same amount of shots as him. He on average takes 5-7 more putts than me per round. I don't think those strokes could be made up in long game but with a little practice could be made up with putting.

    It's worth a read ssbob, but at no time does the book state that putting is not important. It is, it's critical. And of course if you putt badly, you are going to score badly.

    What I have taken from it, is that if you putt reasonably well, then for 2/3 of your putts, professional golfers will not do much better than you do. They'll hole everything from inside 2-3 feet (as you will) and they'll two-putt most from 8-25 feet, as you will too. 3-8 feet might be the area to make up ground, which might be 6 putts a round. So instead of saying that putting is important because it's 40% of your shots, it's really putting is important BUT of the 40%, only 15% can probably be significantly changed (unless you're going to out-perform the pros) and these are where to focus your practice.

    (if you miss from inside 2 feet or 3-putt regularly from inside 25, then different story)
    ssbob wrote: »
    All I am saying is that it may be different for high and low handicappers/pro's.

    This is very true.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,505 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    ssbob wrote: »

    All I am saying is that it may be different for high and low handicappers/pro's.

    I think thats massively important tbh, strokes gained/lost compared to the best in the world doesnt really mean much to us amateur golfers.

    Unless you are missing the hole you are on or putting yourself in trouble, FIR means nothing, likewise for GIR. But if you are missing all your 5 footers of 3 putting from 15 feet then you are directly impacting your score, same as if you were hitting it OOB off the tee.

    I just think that putting is the only time that you have a goal/target that any type of miss counts. There is lots of scope for a miss on all other shots which wont impact your score.

    To the point about being too binary, I think thats exactly the problem. Golf is very grey. A missed fairway != a missed putt for most scenarios.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,736 ✭✭✭ssbob


    GreeBo wrote: »
    To the point about being too binary, I think thats exactly the problem. Golf is very grey. A missed fairway != a missed putt for most scenarios.

    I think our problem is we are trying define a theory of what will help the most in improving your game when that varies person to person.............

    Even the pro's average putts per round stats have some crazy differences, 3 putts per round difference between first and last on the PGA Putts per round stat.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,133 ✭✭✭✭FixdePitchmark


    My handicap dropped by concentration on the long game. Went from 12 to 6.
    I'm a poor putter and average to poor chipper.

    If you are on more fairways and improve your mid to longs irons you have more birdie putts. This bypasses what can be a weak part for some people - getting up and down. I'd much rather be faced with bad putting close , then bad chipping and bad putting. Or bad putting from a long distance away.

    If you really improve your mid irons - you can almost bypass your bad putting by having tap in pars. Typically my good rounds are when I hit greens and get close a good few times.

    People dismiss the long game too much, for some this is the only thing they have , so it counts for them.

    If my long game was at the same level as my short game I'd be off about 15 to 18.

    SO maybe I'm an exception, just to show there are - but I'd hardly be able to play golf without a long game. That is also why laying up is not a great option for me all the time too.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 878 ✭✭✭Montgolfier


    I think maybe I way off but your handicap could drop quicker depending the course you play. A championship course you will have to improve your game immensely compared to a municipal or low budget course with slow greens.
    Isn't that why the mainland Europe and the USA use a slope system.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 35,021 ✭✭✭✭The_Kew_Tour


    Every part of the game is important imo.

    on average Par 4
    No point in 1 putting most of greens and not 3 putting, if it takes 3 to 4 shots, to reach hole.

    No point in being great iron player if you miss too many 3 footers and 3 putt often.

    Needs to be balance. Obviously everyone has their strong and weak points.

    EVENFLOW



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    My handicap dropped by concentration on the long game. Went from 12 to 6.
    I'm a poor putter and average to poor chipper.

    If you are on more fairways and improve your mid to longs irons you have more birdie putts. This bypasses what can be a weak part for some people - getting up and down. I'd much rather be faced with bad putting close , then bad chipping and bad putting. Or bad putting from a long distance away.

    If you really improve your mid irons - you can almost bypass your bad putting by having tap in pars. Typically my good rounds are when I hit greens and get close a good few times.

    People dismiss the long game too much, for some this is the only thing they have , so it counts for them.

    If my long game was at the same level as my short game I'd be off about 15 to 18.

    SO maybe I'm an exception, just to show there are - but I'd hardly be able to play golf without a long game. That is also why laying up is not a great option for me all the time too.

    In fairness Fix from what I seen on Saturday your long game is exceptional. So you might just be that exception. I blame that big massive putter grip you have ;) . Although your puttin was still better than mine!!!!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 878 ✭✭✭Montgolfier


    kiers47 wrote: »
    In fairness Fix from what I seen on Saturday your long game is exceptional. So you might just be that exception. I blame that big massive putter grip you have ;) . Although your puttin was still better than mine!!!!

    I changed from a jumbo grip based on this video http://www.gripsize.com/p/putter-grip-size


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,635 ✭✭✭newport2


    People dismiss the long game too much, for some this is the only thing they have , so it counts for them.

    I think this is the message that comes across alright. But I think the reason it does is that for most people to start hitting most greens in regulation would require pretty much a rebuild of their swing and more work than they are willing to put in.

    Changing their short game would be a far quicker route to lower scores.

    But like you say, there are exceptions and you sound like you're one of them.
    My handicap dropped by concentration on the long game. Went from 12 to 6.
    I'm a poor putter and average to poor chipper.

    ......

    If my long game was at the same level as my short game I'd be off about 15 to 18.

    So if you sorted out your putting and chipping you'd be between scratch and +6 !! What are you waiting for??? :D


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 238 ✭✭saintastic


    GreeBo wrote: »
    Unless you are missing the hole you are on or putting yourself in trouble, FIR means nothing, likewise for GIR.

    I disagree that GIR doesn't matter. I may have bored you all with this before but in my opinion, there is a very clear relationship between handicap and GIRs:

    On average, this is the relationship between handicaps and GIRs:

    0: 66%
    4.5: 55%
    9: 44%
    13.5: 33%
    18: 22%

    And this links well enough back to my game (6 hcap):

    21/06 +7 56% GIR
    20/06 +8 61% GIR
    18/06 +7 56% GIR
    15/06 +10 50% GIR
    17/05 +13 39% GIR
    30/03 +17 22% GIR
    09/03 +3 61% GIR
    01/03 +6 50% GIR

    There are obviously other factors that make up the score but I think GIRs is one of the key stat differentiators for different handicap levels.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,133 ✭✭✭✭FixdePitchmark


    Agree Newport.
    I think people can hide from their poor game in the short game.
    The same can be said for long game.
    They can get low. But are limited until they deal with swing issue.

    I just couldn't handle a life of accepting ill never get to a green in regulation.
    I like that part of the game.

    If your short game is holding you back . Sort it out.
    If your long game is holding you back . Sort it out.

    Yet people give stick to people for sorting out their long game on here.


    To put it simple. Deal with the weakest part of your game.
    That's what I'm trying to do all the time.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,331 ✭✭✭mike12


    Think Rory said early in his career i don't have to work on my short game cause i only miss a couple of greens a round.

    If you are average Putter & Chipper it is very hard to make any improvment. The quickest way your scores will drop is hitting more greens the easiest way to do that is drive it longer and work on your mid and short irons.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,133 ✭✭✭✭FixdePitchmark


    Anyway not about my game. But I've seen lads with good long games hit 4/5/6 iron and then another say 6 iron onto a par 4 green . A good few times in a round. Or a long iron and
    pw onto that 330 to 360 range hole we play a good bit from forward.

    A good long game and good iron striker has another major advantage.
    They have such easy options when it comes to course management.

    This can be particularly helpful when you play a variety of golf. Links . New courses.
    They are more versatile.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,313 ✭✭✭Dr_Colossus


    saintastic wrote: »
    I disagree that GIR doesn't matter. I may have bored you all with this before but in my opinion, there is a very clear relationship between handicap and GIRs:

    On average, this is the relationship between handicaps and GIRs:

    0: 66%
    4.5: 55%
    9: 44%
    13.5: 33%
    18: 22%

    And this links well enough back to my game (6 hcap):

    21/06 +7 56% GIR
    20/06 +8 61% GIR
    18/06 +7 56% GIR
    15/06 +10 50% GIR
    17/05 +13 39% GIR
    30/03 +17 22% GIR
    09/03 +3 61% GIR
    01/03 +6 50% GIR

    There are obviously other factors that make up the score but I think GIRs is one of the key stat differentiators for different handicap levels.

    Agree with above and to put my own poor long game into perspective below are my stats for the last 10 rounds. For my 9 handicap I should be hitting 44% GIR but instead I've only hit 25.6% and haven't hit over 40% once.

    22/06 +9 17% GIR
    21/06 +10 22% GIR
    15/06 +6 39% GIR
    08/06 +13 11% GIR
    01/06 +22 22% GIR
    11/05 +14 28% GIR
    04/05 +15 28% GIR
    04/05 +20 17% GIR
    03/05 +11 33% GIR
    27/04 +7 39% GIR

    If your short game is holding you back . Sort it out.
    If your long game is holding you back . Sort it out.

    As from the stats above my long game is definitely holding me back and it's what I have been practicing the past couple of months with little or no results so far. Will keep at it though as anytime I've played near to handicap has been as a result of improved GIR stats.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69 ✭✭Long Turn


    Saintastic,

    Where do those average GIR figures come from?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,505 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    saintastic wrote: »
    I disagree that GIR doesn't matter. I may have bored you all with this before but in my opinion, there is a very clear relationship between handicap and GIRs:

    On average, this is the relationship between handicaps and GIRs:

    0: 66%
    4.5: 55%
    9: 44%
    13.5: 33%
    18: 22%

    And this links well enough back to my game (6 hcap):

    21/06 +7 56% GIR
    20/06 +8 61% GIR
    18/06 +7 56% GIR
    15/06 +10 50% GIR
    17/05 +13 39% GIR
    30/03 +17 22% GIR
    09/03 +3 61% GIR
    01/03 +6 50% GIR

    There are obviously other factors that make up the score but I think GIRs is one of the key stat differentiators for different handicap levels.

    But those stats/scores ignore your scrambling ability.
    In one of my recent rounds I think I had 1 GIR and was 3 under CSS (off 10)
    My point was that missing the green doesnt really matter unless

    a) you cant chip/scramble
    b) you are putting yourself in trouble

    FIR is even more "useless" a stat imo.
    Unless you dont have a shot to the green, hitting the fairway or not doesnt impact your score.

    Obviously hitting more greens should give you a better chance at scoring well, but it doesnt necessarily mean that you will.
    Likewise, missing all the fairways doesnt mean you will have a bad score.


    my stats

    GIR FIR Par

    22% 33% +18
    25% 42% +15
    25% 42% +12
    44% 67% +12
    06% 50% +8
    33% 58% +11
    22% 36% +11
    44% 50% +14
    31% 58% +17
    19% 58% +14
    19% 67% +14
    25% 33% +19
    25% 17% +13
    53% 67% +4
    17% 33% +11
    22% 67% +13
    22% 42% +11
    33% 50% +13
    44% 50% +10
    33% 42% +12


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,635 ✭✭✭newport2


    GreeBo wrote: »
    But those stats/scores ignore your scrambling ability.
    In one of my recent rounds I think I had 1 GIR and was 3 under CSS (off 10)
    My point was that missing the green doesnt really matter unless

    a) you cant chip/scramble
    b) you are putting yourself in trouble

    FIR is even more "useless" a stat imo.
    Unless you dont have a shot to the green, hitting the fairway or not doesnt impact your score.

    Obviously hitting more greens should give you a better chance at scoring well, but it doesnt necessarily mean that you will.
    Likewise, missing all the fairways doesnt mean you will have a bad score.

    I think missing greens:

    a) All but eliminates birdie chances
    b) Ensures for every two greens you miss, you are going to bogey at least one hole. At best. (PGA Tour scrambling average < 50%)

    That matters.

    I've had some good rounds while missing a lot of greens too, but they are the exception.

    I agree with you on the FIR regulation to an extent. It can be useful to know, provided you're honest with yourself about where you're missing them. If you're chipping out on every second hole, you've obviously got something to sort out.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 35,021 ✭✭✭✭The_Kew_Tour


    Every part of the game is important imo.

    on average Par 4
    No point in 1 putting most of greens and not 3 putting, if it takes 3 to 4 shots, to reach hole.

    No point in being great iron player if you miss too many 3 footers and 3 putt often.

    Needs to be balance. Obviously everyone has their strong and weak points.

    Actually just to go into little more detail on this from personal point of view.

    I remember posting 36 points in a stableford competition, off 10 handicap at time, must be 15 years ago now. I kept stats at time and what was remarkable was I 1 putted the first 9 holes. I ended up 1 putting 12 of the 18 and 2 putting the rest.

    Thats good by any standard, but when I looked more closely there was a few factors, yes I putted well but

    my iron play was not good, leaving myself pitches and chips to green and second was I only hit 1 green in regulation all 18 holes.

    Now my putting was something I worked hard on and I became solid putter but my Iron play was poor as was my driving accuracy.

    I tried to find a balance, and when my Iron play got better, I shot lower.

    So the term Drive for Show, Putt for Dough is no good if you end up driving a ball or 2 out of bounds.

    Short game is important but being able to hit greens and drive with accurate (long hitter a bonus) results is just as important.

    EVENFLOW



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,505 ✭✭✭✭GreeBo


    newport2 wrote: »
    I think missing greens:

    a) All but eliminates birdie chances
    b) Ensures for every two greens you miss, you are going to bogey at least one hole. At best. (PGA Tour scrambling average < 50%)

    Ah but unless you are hitting your approaches to within 15 feet then you aren't going to hole any more than ~50% of those birdie chances anyway.
    (PUTTING FROM - 10-15' Sergio tops out at 42% made)

    And I'm specifically talking about missing the green but not in trouble.
    (SCRAMBLING FROM 20-30 YARDS Mike Weir 69%)

    At amateur level (anything above single figures) your score is far, FAR more about not having bogeys and worse than it is about missing birdie chances.


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