Thursday 14th May

UrbanSea

After what seemed like everyone made some money today, let's hope it can continue tomorrow. There are two I think are worth chancing.

Sweet Lightning is getting on in years but is still a smart horse, he was kept on the go over in Meydan over the winter without being competitive but ran two good races back here, beaten only around 2 lengths into fourth by Ocean Tempest who proved to be miles ahead of his mark in the Lincoln, and ran a similar race in a hot Newmarket handicap next time when fifth. He did disappoint last time but is the type to bounce back, and a mark of 97 shouldn't be beyond him given the form he showed in Ireland last year, especially when easily winning the Irish Lincoln at the Curragh first time out winning by 3 3/4 lengths despite a mark of 100 and was beaten under a length when third to the gr.1 filly Duntle.

It's a good race tomorrow though I'm not sure how well handicapped some of them are. Fort Bastion and Ingleby Angel are half his price, and I backed Fort Bastion last time when winning at Thirsk when he held him off, but that race wasn't as competitive as this and the two could be vulnerable. Fury is one of the most frustrating horses in training and is the type you could follow off a cliff. I think this horse is about 4 points too big at 14/1


The other worth a small chance in the last at Salisbury is The Mongoose 16/1. He was in good form last year, winning 3 handicaps on turf last summer, including over this course and distance off a pound higher mark. The last of those wins came in comfortable fashion off a mark of 61, and was only beaten half a length off his revised mark of 68. He hasn't really been as good since, but didn't run badly on his return to turf last time at Catterick (well backed), and 16/1 looks a big each way price here

the groutch

In Sweet Lightning's race I like the look of Fury for Willy Haggas.
Won this race 2 years ago off 9lb higher, and still showed signs of ability when only 5L back (behind Educate) in the Cambridgeshire last year despite breaking poorly.

NaiveMelodies

Taking a chance on Soul Intent in the 7.00 Newmarket at 28s.
Screaming out for this step up in trip I feel.
Some hint of promise in his seasonal reappearance but was ultimately outpaced, otherwise absolutely no form of note on the turf, but is 3 pounds better off on his AW form.
The Hills stable is in good form also.

tomaussie

1.45 at York today guys. Monsieur Joe is jumping off the page at me. Been running in some quality races and if you go back 2 years was running in hotter races than this.

I'm also looking at Secret Witness in this.

Any of you got an opinion ?

sdoc13

tomaussie wrote: »

1.45 at York today guys. Monsieur Joe is jumping off the page at me. Been running in some quality races and if you go back 2 years was running in hotter races than this.

I'm also loorking at Secret Witness in this.

Any of you got an opinion ?

Was looking at secret witness as well. Definitely capable of winning a race like this one. His best form ia on good/ good to firm though.

skippymac6

In much lower class Tony "the snake" Martin sends over recent Punchestown Festival bumper horse to Perth today. Went off favourite that day so he was obviously doing something at home. Raced prominently all race but once his chance went Robbie Mac was very easy on him. Of course a few unraced horses could improve past him today and Crawford always targets these sort of races but it would be disappointing if he didn't win. At 11/10 he's obvioulsy no steal or get rich quick plot but he should win.

skippymac6

In much lower class Tony "the snake" Martin sends over recent Punchestown Festival bumper horse Blair Perrone to Perth today. Went off favourite that day so he was obviously doing something at home. Raced prominently all race but once his chance went Robbie Mac was very easy on him. Of course a few unraced horses could improve past him today and Crawford always targets these sort of races but it would be disappointing if he didn't win. At 11/10 he's obvioulsy no steal or get rich quick plot but he should win.

longshotvalue

tomaussie wrote: »

1.45 at York today guys. Monsieur Joe is jumping off the page at me. Been running in some quality races and if you go back 2 years was running in hotter races than this.

I'm also looking at Secret Witness in this.

Any of you got an opinion ?

Secret witness has done this thing of running the day after a few times and has run better next day each time.. Wont have time to get the tip up today but he might not be far away

And where is the mighty all conquering Rossom's picks?

tomaussie

aidankkk wrote: »

Secret witness has done this thing of running the day after a few times and has run better next day each time.. Wont have time to get the tip up today but he might not be far away

I noticed that. Has only run badly on the one occasion using that method but has run well on 3 occasions I think. My minds made up now.

Gringo180

I like the look of Long Awaited in the sprint race at York, travelled nicely on his first start for the best part of a year LTO then didnt find much which is understandable. He has a 3lb claimer on board and could run a big race at 16/1. I like The Lark too, she is the type that will have improved massively over the winter but the 2lb penalty FTO is a worry but ill take the risk at 14/1.

Gregk961

Inxile looks a decent bet in the first at 28-1 especially with 5 places. Not shown much in last year but im willing to give him a shot. Back in to handicap company off a decent mark and on his old form has a great chance of at least placing against this bunch

rossom

2.00 Salisbury

Laurelita 8/1

Oaks entrant Laurelita (also held a 1,000 Guineas entry) is clearly held in high regard by the George Baker team and if forgiving her last run in a French Listed contest in March I think she should go extremely close on her first start in a handicap off a mark of 82. Laurelita made her debut as a 2 year old in August last year over 6f at Windsor when she finished a very good 2nd (beaten 7L) by the vastly more experienced Hoku who has since gone on to be beaten a nose Group 3. Additionally, fellow debutant Veiled Intrigue has since gone on to finish runner up in a Group 3 contest and it was an excellent debut by this daughter of High Chaparral. Putting that experience to good use, Laurelita ran out a supremely impressive winner on her final start as a Juvenile when upped to 7f at Yarmouth as she made all at a good speed and was never troubled as she scored by a very comfortable 2.5L in a race that now looks really strong form. The runner up Regardez finshed 3rd in the Group 3 Musidore Yesterday whilst the 3rd Cay Dancer was a winner of a handicap off a mark of 74 and given the authority she dispatched of those rivals it certainly looks that a mark of 82 is very favourable on those two runs. She does, however, have to bounce back from a poor performance in a Listed contest over 1m at Saint-Cloud back in March when finishing last of the 6 finishers but her trainer said that this galloping type didn't appreciate the start-stop gallop and subsequent 2f sprint for the finish (she set the pace). In addition, the race has turned out to be quite a useful contest with the winner and 4th subsequently placing in Group 3 contests and the runner up 5th in the French 2,000 Guineas and Laurelita will certainly find the return to handicap company today a much easier task with that run sure to have brought her on a bit. Additionally, I think she's going to relish the step up to just shy of 10f for the first time and I definitely think that Pat Cosgrave will attempt to make all and gallop his rivals into the ground. In a race made up of lots of unexposed types, it's always hard to quantify how well the opposition are handicapped but off a mark of 82 I think it's going to take a well handicapped one to beat Laurelita and I think she must take a lot of beating today.

darced

This post has been deleted.

tomaussie

tomaussie wrote: »

1.45 at York today guys. Monsieur Joe is jumping off the page at me. Been running in some quality races and if you go back 2 years was running in hotter races than this.

I'm also looking at Secret Witness in this.

Any of you got an opinion ?

Doh. Back the winner but had my main bet on the other one.

BumperD

tomaussie wrote: »

1.45 at York today guys. Monsieur Joe is jumping off the page at me. Been running in some quality races and if you go back 2 years was running in hotter races than this.

I'm also looking at Secret Witness in this.

Any of you got an opinion ?

25/1 cracker!

mr.jingle

It just gets better looking for Australia in the Derby after that result

carpothepunk

None of those horses will win the Derby.

mr.jingle

carpothepunk wrote: »

None of those horses will win the Derby.

Very much looks a 1 horse race at the moment, odds on Australia all across the board 10/11 the best around

carpothepunk

I've become what I hate talking in certainties, but the proximity of Odeon to the winner... Good lord.

UrbanSea

carpothepunk wrote: »

I've become what I hate talking in certainties, but the proximity of Odeon to the winner... Good lord.

Not sure that's a great line to use given the colt only had two starts.

That drift on Sweet Lightning said it all. 14 to 29 few minutes before the off

Francie Barrett

Irish trainers cleaning up at Perth.

superfurry1

Hidden justice 12-1 in the last at york looks great value.

Francie Barrett

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Irish trainers cleaning up at Perth.

4 in a row :pac:

BorneTobyWilde

Do Do Run Run & High Office in the 7.00 pm
Lil ew on both
NR
Sporting Gold instead 10-1 ew
High office 10-1 ew

hawaii501

Even the great Alex Hammond tipped a 15/2 winner in Navajo Chief. Whats going on

skippymac6

hawaii501 wrote: »

Even the great Alex Hammond tipped a 15/2 winner in Navajo Chief. Whats going on

Must have told the producer to copy Hugh Taylor's tip for today

Johner

Tony Martin landed a big gamble there. :pac:

Francie Barrett

Johner wrote: »

Tony Martin landed a big gamble there. :pac:

Three winners from three for him today.

BorneTobyWilde

Cincinnati Kit 8.35 7-1
Recent run should be of benefit . Should do well in this class

Francie Barrett

I'd say that'll be the last time that James goes off as an even money favourite. Looked like it was travelling brilliantly but found zip in the last 2 furlongs. Don't think the horse even finished in the first three.

hudhastings

violinist in the last small e/w prospects I have seen the horse in a point to point

hudhastings

Just found out the going might be a little soft for violinist

Francie Barrett

Ground Invasion at 6/1 for me, Crawford missed a few decent rides at Perth today. Surely this horse is somewhat useful.

Francie Barrett

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Ground Invasion at 6/1 for me, Crawford missed a few decent rides at Perth today. Surely this horse is somewhat useful.

Thank you and good night :cool:

hawaii501

Aurora bell was the word on course an backed too but looked like it was out for a spin there.
Wish I seen your post Frankie ha

NaiveMelodies

only1stevo wrote: »

Taking a chance on Soul Intent in the 7.00 Newmarket at 28s.
Screaming out for this step up in trip I feel.
Some hint of promise in his seasonal reappearance but was ultimately outpaced, otherwise absolutely no form of note on the turf, but is 3 pounds better off on his AW form.
The Hills stable is in good form also.

2nd but bit of rule 4 on the 28s... happy with the pick but not sure I'll be following, fairly one paced, may want even further.

kiers47

tomaussie wrote: »

1.45 at York today guys. Monsieur Joe is jumping off the page at me. Been running in some quality races and if you go back 2 years was running in hotter races than this.

I'm also looking at Secret Witness in this.

Any of you got an opinion ?

Great shout tom. No money on but great shtuff!!