Is it 1979 again with all the dairy talk?

grazeaway

Every time my dad reads through the journo or other farming mags he gets a good ol chuckle. He reckons it all sounds like the late 70's again.

Over the last few years there has been a huge focus being put on the upcoming dairy quota going next year and the impact that is going to have on irish farming. Every week there is a new article about how a co-op is going to expand it cheese plant or that a new dryer is been built or that the like of dairy gold and glanbia are looking to new suppliers. Aside from that there is always something about FR bull beef or contract rearing or something else that will be a spin off from the expected surge in dairy.

I'm just wondering if he is right? Back in the day when my folks were starting of in their 20's and looking raise a family on the farm they decided to build up the dairy herd. As my dad said every agri advisor in the county was saying that you should be I dairy. It was almost as if only real farmers that were serious about their futures would be in cows. So you had a huge surge in dairy production and then bang too much milk and in came the quota.

He reckons that the same thing might happen again only instead of the EU creating a quota system to prop up the price that fellas will be left go to the wall. I know that the folks (like many others) struggled through the 80's and into the 90's to pay off the debts that expansion and the quotas created for them so I wonder will it happens again.

I know loads of people on here have looked into going into dairy or are doing so as is and I wonder will it pay for them.

I have looked at doing so myself but at present the figures don't add up forit. You hear a lot of crap about us part time farmers using up land that others will do more with this is espically from local dairy lads that want to expand and feel we are holding them back.

I'm just wondering in 3-5 years time will there be many of them still going? Or as my dad says will it be 1983 again?

Poor Farmer in the hills

I think your dad has a point. Supply and demand will always dictate price. As a suckler farmer the only time i get paid a proper price for what i produce is when it is scarce.Irish processors of either beef or milk will screw farmers on price when supply is too strong.

rangler1

grazeaway wrote: »

Every time my dad reads through the journo or other farming mags he gets a good ol chuckle. He reckons it all sounds like the late 70's again.

Over the last few years there has been a huge focus being put on the upcoming dairy quota going next year and the impact that is going to have on irish farming. Every week there is a new article about how a co-op is going to expand it cheese plant or that a new dryer is been built or that the like of dairy gold and glanbia are looking to new suppliers. Aside from that there is always something about FR bull beef or contract rearing or something else that will be a spin off from the expected surge in dairy.

I'm just wondering if he is right? Back in the day when my folks were starting of in their 20's and looking raise a family on the farm they decided to build up the dairy herd. As my dad said every agri advisor in the county was saying that you should be I dairy. It was almost as if only real farmers that were serious about their futures would be in cows. So you had a huge surge in dairy production and then bang too much milk and in came the quota.

He reckons that the same thing might happen again only instead of the EU creating a quota system to prop up the price that fellas will be left go to the wall. I know that the folks (like many others) struggled through the 80's and into the 90's to pay off the debts that expansion and the quotas created for them so I wonder will it happens again.

I know loads of people on here have looked into going into dairy or are doing so as is and I wonder will it pay for them.

I have looked at doing so myself but at present the figures don't add up forit. You hear a lot of crap about us part time farmers using up land that others will do more with this is espically from local dairy lads that want to expand and feel we are holding them back.

I'm just wondering in 3-5 years time will there be many of them still going? Or as my dad says will it be 1983 again?

Don't know if they struggled through the 80s but dairy farmers came from up to 70 miles away to rent the good land around here in the 80s.
A lot of part time farmers are doing a good job and shouldn't worry about what people think, a lot of parttimers in our discussion group, lovely tidy farms....if you enjoy using your spare time to farm.....why not

J.O. Farmer

rangler1 wrote: »

Don't know if they struggled through the 80s but dairy farmers came from up to 70 miles away to rent the good land around here in the 80s.
A lot of part time farmers are doing a good job and shouldn't worry about what people think, a lot of parttimers in our discussion group, lovely tidy farms....if you enjoy using your spare time to farm.....why not

It's a very fair point that part time lads should be allowed do what they want with their own land. We don't live in a communist country. Most part time farmers don't have enough land to earn a living and it wouldn't pay them to expand. I farm part time and wouldn't go at it full time. For starters I would need investment that I couldn't pay back in my lifetime. Secondly I enjoy the day job. It gets me out meeting people at work and I have a secure wage. Just the same I could never consider selling off what has been in the family for generations or even leasing it to some lad who thinks he's better than me because he's full time farming.

Viewtodiefor

grazeaway wrote: »

Every time my dad reads through the journo or other farming mags he gets a good ol chuckle. He reckons it all sounds like the late 70's again.

Over the last few years there has been a huge focus being put on the upcoming dairy quota going next year and the impact that is going to have on irish farming. Every week there is a new article about how a co-op is going to expand it cheese plant or that a new dryer is been built or that the like of dairy gold and glanbia are looking to new suppliers. Aside from that there is always something about FR bull beef or contract rearing or something else that will be a spin off from the expected surge in dairy.

I'm just wondering if he is right? Back in the day when my folks were starting of in their 20's and looking raise a family on the farm they decided to build up the dairy herd. As my dad said every agri advisor in the county was saying that you should be I dairy. It was almost as if only real farmers that were serious about their futures would be in cows. So you had a huge surge in dairy production and then bang too much milk and in came the quota.

He reckons that the same thing might happen again only instead of the EU creating a quota system to prop up the price that fellas will be left go to the wall. I know that the folks (like many others) struggled through the 80's and into the 90's to pay off the debts that expansion and the quotas created for them so I wonder will it happens again.

I know loads of people on here have looked into going into dairy or are doing so as is and I wonder will it pay for them.

I have looked at doing so myself but at present the figures don't add up forit. You hear a lot of crap about us part time farmers using up land that others will do more with this is espically from local dairy lads that want to expand and feel we are holding them back.

I'm just wondering in 3-5 years time will there be many of them still going? Or as my dad says will it be 1983 again?

If we could predict the future we would all be millionaires. People including farmers are a bit like cattle and sheep "they tend to follow the crowd" ( a lot of them) Just look at property how if you weren't buying a second property of investing then you weren't doing the "right thing". Look at stoves these were thrown out years ago and now everyone has to have one! That's just two examples.
Who knows what's going to happen with dairy but if you take history as an example then there has to be a price collapse somewhere down the line, but maybe we will get ten great years and make loads of money. Quota didnt stop a collapse in 09 also. I think we need to be careful and not overextend on loans and such and be prepared for the bad years when they inevitably will come. As said previously when price drops farmers will be left high n dry with few if any supports, so business planning/ cash reserves etc will play a huge part to keep the show on the road in the future. This will leave the heavily borrowed new entrants under pressure unless they get a few years under there belt to get established properly as any new startup and expanding herd eats up money. But we must look forward and hope for the best and plan for the worst!

frazzledhome

It's a commodity and the same rules apply, don't over borrow(different for each business) and keep your unit cost as low as possible while pushing sales as hard as possible

Viewtodiefor

frazzledhome wrote: »

It's a commodity and the same rules apply, don't over borrow(different for each business) and keep your unit cost as low as possible while pushing sales as hard as possible

Without some risk there will be no gains!

keep going

A fella said to me the other day "will the price of milk fall".I said yes and then it will go up.peopl who are expanding or entering for the first time should live by thecwords "expand away but spend nothing".everything will have to be done as cheap as possible and if you think cows are going to pay back big loans for everything, think again.I know people will say but you have to spend but people on the way upnin cows cant splash out, its fine for the established fella to say "acrs are essential "orjohn deeres are the only tractor" but to the fella building his business money is king

frazzledhome

keep going wrote: »

A fella said to me the other day "will the price of milk fall".I said yes and then it will go up.peopl who are expanding or entering for the first time should live by thecwords "expand away but spend nothing".everything will have to be done as cheap as possible and if you think cows are going to pay back big loans for everything, think again.I know people will say but you have to spend but people on the way upnin cows cant splash out, its fine for the established fella to say "acrs are essential "orjohn deeres are the only tractor" but to the fella building his business money is king

Sorry, can only thank once