4th May Red C poll for the European election (attachment)

Lockstep

Got my hands on the latest Red C poll for the European parliament. Makes the following predictions:

Midlands North West: McGuinness (FG) Harkin (Ind) Carthy (SF) and Higgins (FG) or Ming (Ind)
South: Crowley (FF), Kelly (FG), Ní Riada (SF) and Prendergast (Lab)
Dublin: Hayes (FG), Boylan (SF). Last place is a free for all between Childers (Ind) Costello (Lab) Ryan (Green) and Fitzpatrick (FF)

All this took place before Adams' arrest so final results might differ.

Phoebas

Lockstep wrote: »

Makes the following predictions:

Dublin: Hayes (FG), Boylan (SF). Last place is a free for all between Childers (Ind) Costello (Lab) Ryan (Green) and Fitzpatrick (FF)

Is that Dublin prediction correct? - here's what they say

redc wrote:

Hayes takes the top spot in Dublin and is likely to secure a seat . The fight for the second and third seat will be tougher, with Boylan down to Childers all in contention.

Lockstep

Phoebas wrote: »

Is that Dublin prediction correct? - here's what they say

^That's exactly what I said, except for Boylan getting the second spot.
Boylan down to Childers are all in the contention.

FrStone

Lockstep wrote: »

Got my hands on the latest Red C poll for the European parliament. Makes the following predictions:

Midlands North West: McGuinness (FG) Harkin (Ind) Carthy (SF) and Higgins (FG) or Ming (Ind)
South: Crowley (FF), Kelly (FG), Ní Riada (SF) and Prendergast (Lab)
Dublin: Hayes (FG), Boylan (SF). Last place is a free for all between Childers (Ind) Costello (Lab) Ryan (Green) and Fitzpatrick (FF)

All this took place before Adams' arrest so final results might differ.

Good news for Prendergast, a big shock really!

Deirdre Clune losing out to her too.

Diarmuid O'Flynn has lost alot of ground too, he was looking like he could just about scrape a seat there for awhile.

nesf

Lockstep wrote: »

Got my hands on the latest Red C poll for the European parliament. Makes the following predictions:

Midlands North West: McGuinness (FG) Harkin (Ind) Carthy (SF) and Higgins (FG) or Ming (Ind)
South: Crowley (FF), Kelly (FG), Ní Riada (SF) and Prendergast (Lab)
Dublin: Hayes (FG), Boylan (SF). Last place is a free for all between Childers (Ind) Costello (Lab) Ryan (Green) and Fitzpatrick (FF)

All this took place before Adams' arrest so final results might differ.

I don't see the prediction for Prendergast and given the 2nd Preference levels I can see why. It's going to be a mess with Ní Riadha not looking to pick up much past the first round (fairly normal for SF in many of the areas here) and Clune potentially recovering very well through transfers (she is fairly popular in the city and narrowly missed out on a Dáil seat). Prendergast is somewhere between the two of these and you really would struggle to put her in the running without including Clune (who should receive a fair amount from Harris just to start given either Kelly or Crowley should be elected before he drops and Clune should be able to capture a fair amount of transfers that would go their way).

The third seat is looking very interesting. I'd personally put it between Ní Riadha and Clune, I think Prendergast will run out of transfers first. I think where the votes from Harris and O'Sullivan will go will decide things from looking at it. Probably O'Sullivan as her vote will be a lot less predictable. Also how many of the votes for the Independents become spent will be important, Ní Riadha might need quite a few 4th/5th preferences from them from the anti-Government votes.

Lockstep

I'm just hoping Prendergast gets elected as if she does, I'll have made €160 from Boylesports :P

nesf

Lockstep wrote: »

I'm just hoping Prendergast gets elected as if she does, I'll have made €160 from Boylesports :P

Yeah the problem with calling Labour is they don't reliably transfer from anywhere usually but will pull transfers from everywhere. The Greens used to also be like this. FG/SF/FF tend to be more predictable in where their votes can come from.

Jolly Red Giant

Phoebas wrote: »

Is that Dublin prediction correct? - here's what they say

No it is not - with margin of error Hayes could be as low as 13%. Remember this poll was conducted by contacting 381 people by phone out of a potential electorate of about 850,000. And because it was done by phone it was not truly randomised and at best there is a 95% chance that the candidates will get the numbers in the opinion poll within a = or - 5.02% margin of error.

The reality is that any of the top eight candidates - Hayes, Boylan, Fitzpatrick, Costello, Ryan, Childers, Smith and Paul Murphy - could win the three seats. This contest is very much one of 'its all to play for'. No candidate has managed to get any momentum yet - several candidates (particularly Fitzpatrick, Costello, Ryan and Childers) are very vulnerable to the exposure of their politics over the next three weeks. By election day the entire thing could be turned around.

Godge

Lockstep wrote: »

Got my hands on the latest Red C poll for the European parliament. Makes the following predictions:

Midlands North West: McGuinness (FG) Harkin (Ind) Carthy (SF) and Higgins (FG) or Ming (Ind)
South: Crowley (FF), Kelly (FG), Ní Riada (SF) and Prendergast (Lab)
Dublin: Hayes (FG), Boylan (SF). Last place is a free for all between Childers (Ind) Costello (Lab) Ryan (Green) and Fitzpatrick (FF)

All this took place before Adams' arrest so final results might differ.

An interesting poll but I don't agree with the conclusions.

In the South, FG actually look good for two seats, 40% needed for two seats, first preference across all 3 candidates is 33% with second preferences being 30% means that there must be tight transfers between them.

FF had enough to consider 2 seats as well but Crowley is gobbling up all of the votes. His surplus and Hartley's transfers will play a large part in what is going on.

Prendergast is interesting. Get the first preference up to 11-12% and she could take a seat.

To sum up, Crowley, Kelly look nailed on for two seats. Clune, Ni Riada and Prendergast for the last two seats. I just don't think SF pick up enough transfers to get them home. On those stats I see them losing out but it is far enough away for them to have a chance.

In Dublin the poll is all over the place, impossible to predict. Boylan could top the poll and win a seat, equally if she is only narrowly ahead, she could top the poll and lose out because of the spread of candidates and SF inability to pick up transfers. Only a fool would call this on the information available.


Midlands/North-West looks like McGuinness followed by Harking with Flanagan likely to take the third seat. Transfers or lack of them between FF and SF will decide if SF or FF take that third seat ahead of him.

road_high

Wouldn't rule out Harris either. By geography alone, he is the only Leinster candidate for Wicklow/Wex/Kilkenny/Carlow which are likely to prefer their "own" candidate than someone way down in Kerry/Cork.

road_high

I seriously do not get the Brian Crowley appeal at all. FF (a definite No No to start) plus a dismal attendance record courtesy of illness the past term. Effectively electing someone to not do a job by voting for him.

nesf

road_high wrote: »

Wouldn't rule out Harris either. By geography alone, he is the only Leinster candidate for Wicklow/Wex/Kilkenny/Carlow which are likely to prefer their "own" candidate than someone way down in Kerry/Cork.

Cork county on its own has a greater population than all those combined. Without pulling in a decent amount of the FG vote (or Kelly transfers) Harris will have more trouble than Clune most likely.

road_high

nesf wrote: »

Cork county on its own has a greater population than all those combined. Without pulling in a decent amount of the FG vote (or Kelly transfers) Harris will have more trouble than Clune most likely.

But are all of Cork going to vote so strongly for Clune? There's about 450k people in the south east counties with just one local candidate (Harris), Cork has several big names split acoss it's population of 520k. Not to mention the likes of Kelly and Prendergast on the Cork border areas.

nesf

road_high wrote: »

But are all of Cork going to vote so strongly for Clune? There's about 450k people in the south east counties with just one local candidate (Harris), Cork has several big names split acoss it's population of 520k. Not to mention the likes of Kelly and Prendergast on the Cork border areas.

Sure, but it's about transfers. Clune is polling good transfers from Crowley and Kelly, Harris isn't. Those two surpluses will be distributed first, the Independents etc that go first won't be a big factor for either Clune or Harris. There's a strong chance that unless Harris steals a good lead on Clune in the 1st preference vote that she pulls ahead after these transfers leaving him without somewhere for more votes to come from that would massively favour him over her. Harris is just too much of an unknown in too much of the constituency to pick up these transfers.

He's far from out of it, he just has an uphill struggle based on that single poll. It's going to be a very interesting count to watch I think.

Scofflaw

road_high wrote: »

I seriously do not get the Brian Crowley appeal at all. FF (a definite No No to start) plus a dismal attendance record courtesy of illness the past term. Effectively electing someone to not do a job by voting for him.

Passive euroscepticism perhaps? After all the entirety of UKIP is elected to do nothing.

cordially,
Scofflaw