Official London Marathon Competition Thread!

tomdempsey200

ok

with the London Marathon fast approaching

we got kiplagat(recent HM wr) v tirunesh dibaba in the ladies race

and we got mo sit'n'kick farah against the best in the world with haile g peacemaking

so who you got and what times you got?

ThePiedPiper

I reckon we could be in for one of the best women's performances in years, I think the field is potentially deep enough to push Jeptoo to a possible low 2:17, she had an unbelievable year in 2013, and the likes of Gelena and Dibaba will mean it'll take a very fast and aggressive performance to win.

The men's race could be a cracker too. I see possibly G Mutai and Kipsang going deep into the race at WR pace, before Kipsang blows up, Mutai winning in 2:04:13, E Mutai in second and Kebede finishing like a trooper, with Mo running 2:06:45 and getting all of the TV coverage

ecoli

I am gonna say as follows

1) E Mutai 2.04.30 (despite stunning performances last year will be overlooked by many due to being Mr. Silver I reckon will finally get his chance in the lime light)

2) Feyisa Lilesa 2.04.42 (Championship race experience will stand to him and I think will be able to challenge but ultimately think he is a little shy of talent compared to Mutai)

4) W Kipsang 2.04.55 (With the sigh off relief after getting the WR last year I think that there may be a little bit of drive lacking much like many athletes experience with post championship hangover)

5) Kebede 2.05.20 (Consistent as ever but I think this year will be a different ball game and can't see him besting such a quality field 2 years in a row)

honourable mentions
Mo Farah - 2.06.50. Enough to bag top 10 and British record. That is best case scenario but I wouldn't be surprised to see a DNF. He has very little to gain from this race but a hell of alot to lose

G Mutai - DNF - last 18 months despite wins there is nothing in his performances that has blown me away and I think a hard effort in NY will ultimately be his undoing

A Abshero - DNF - So many fast times coming from Dubai from Ethiopians that I don't think it can be used as a good gauge against top marathoners in the world and ultimately I don't think he will be able to hang with the big boys

pconn062

Men

1: W. Kipsang- 2:04:55
2: E. Mutai- 2:05:23
3: T. Kebede- 2:05: 42


Top 10: M. Farah- 2:06:40

Women:

1: Jeptoo- 2:18:32
2: T. Dibaba- 2:19:10
3: Kiplagat- 2:19:32

tomdempsey200

it appears that mo will be hanging back at a slower pace

he'll go back to track like he said if he can't do the business at the marathon

morceli

Yep had expected him to do that . Still going out at sub 2:05 pace which is still impressive /optimistic
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/apr/09/mo-farah-london-marathon

But a couple of time there has been peacemaking groups so close together they just merge. So will wait to see on sunday

tomdempsey200

mo is going to be on radio 5 live at 730
to discuss the race

wrstan

tomdempsey200 wrote: »

mo is going to be on radio 5 live at 730
to discuss the race

Sorry to have missed that, any pearls of wisdom?

wrstan

morceli wrote: »

Yep had expected him to do that . Still going out at sub 2:05 pace which is still impressive /optimistic
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/apr/09/mo-farah-london-marathon

But a couple of time there has been peacemaking groups so close together they just merge. So will wait to see on sunday

One of the better informed articles in mainstream media.

I love the precision:rolleyes: of it all! I'm really looking forward to how it all plays out in reality.

And as for Kebede's confidence, it all just adds to the mix. When does the build up start?

tomdempsey200

wrstan wrote: »

Sorry to have missed that, any pearls of wisdom?

I only managed to get the end of it

he was on about respecting the distance/competitors

and getting the British record

RunRoryRun

wrstan wrote: »

When does the build up start?

8.30am on BBC - can't wait!

morceli

Thought Mutai was a hard one not to back at 7:1 so went ew on him.

Have two outside bets on Feyisa Lilesa and Jeilan also ew aty 16/1 which was worth a punt. Not sure how Jeilan will go.

menoscemo

morceli wrote: »

Thought Mutai was a hard one not to back at 7:1 so went ew on him.

Have two outside bets on Feyisa Lilesa and Jeilan also ew aty 16/1 which was worth a punt. Not sure how Jeilan will go.

Lilesa is at 25/1 in some bookies. i am going to look around To see if I can find a william hill in London tomorrow
http://www.oddschecker.com/athletics/london-marathon/mens-london-marathon-2014/winner

morceli

menoscemo wrote: »

Lilesa is at 25/1 in some bookies. i am going to look around To see if I can find a william hill in London tomorrow
http://www.oddschecker.com/athletics/london-marathon/mens-london-marathon-2014/winner

25:1 is mad, i though 16:1 was great when I got it. I am a bit of a chicken so all bets were each way.

roro2

E Mutai 12/1 e/w with boylesports - too big to ignore. He often finds one better than him though.

likestosmile

1st time ever placing a bet, but this thread has me intrigued.
Quickly scurried into the black hole that is B.S @lunchtime hiding under my bright pink hat (with white bobble just in case i wouldn't be seen!!!) Met by the stale smell of ciggies and booze and some dodgy, tootless, dirty hair "regulars" .....:eek:
All in the name of a double bet on Jeptoo (2/1) and E Mutai (12/1). Bring it home baby.....

menoscemo

likestosmile wrote: »

1st time ever placing a bet, but this thread has me intrigued.
Quickly scurried into the black hole that is B.S @lunchtime hiding under my bright pink hat (with white bobble just in case i wouldn't be seen!!!) Met by the stale smell of ciggies and booze and some dodgy, tootless, dirty hair "regulars" .....:eek:
All in the name of a double bet on Jeptoo (2/1) and E Mutai (12/1). Bring it home baby.....

Jeptoo at 2/1 is a very solid bet I think.
I have a boyles right beside my house. I reckon I will put a fiver on that double myself

Edit: just noticed she is 13/5 on Paddy power :eek:

ecoli

menoscemo wrote: »

Jeptoo at 2/1 is a very solid bet I think.
I have a boyles right beside my house. I reckon I will put a fiver on that double myself

13/5 with PP.

Personally though as much as I fancy Jeptoo personally I feel that those odds are a little short given that field and don't think the womens race offers great value (given the shorter odds effectively negating any value to be got from e/w)

tomdempsey200

what's eurosport commentary going to be like

if you're looking for an alternative to bbc

yaboya1

This race looks very hard to call, but surely Emmanuel Mutai @ 12/1 (Boylesports) and Stephen Kiprotich @ 16/1 (Skybet) are massive each-way value?
It's hard to envisage you not getting a run for your money with those two, even if neither win.

rainbow kirby

I just can't see the race being run in a manner that would suit Stephen Kiprotich - he is a good championship runner when the pace is a bit slower and the race is more tactical, but the way a major is run and won is completely different.

ecoli

yaboya1 wrote: »

This race looks very hard to call, but surely Emmanuel Mutai @ 12/1 (Boylesports) and Stephen Kiprotich @ 16/1 (Skybet) are massive each-way value?
It's hard to envisage you not getting a run for your money with those two, even if neither win.

Agree with value on E Mutai but I think Lelisa is a better e/w punt @ 25s with 365

ThePiedPiper

Hasn't E Mutai finished second in about 657 major marathons at this stage, with just one or two wins? He even finished second in Chicago despite running 2:03:52 last year. He's got to be somewhere in the mix-up.

Agreed on Kiprotich. His PB is 2:07 odd, and has never shown anything to indicate he could be a 2:03/04 man.

I still think that Geoffrey Mutai must feel he has to produce something special on European soil to get the recognition he rightly deserves. His 2:04 win in Berlin a couple of years ago was tainted due to Kimetto more or less letting him take the win. But his performances in the New York and Boston marathons were astonishing, and he'll want to prove that he belongs at the top table the current generation of marathoners.

IamtheWalrus

Does anyone know when the ballot for 2015 is open?

rainbow kirby

22nd April according to the magazine.

menoscemo

Bets made.
€10 on a E Mutai (12/1) Jeptoo (2/1) double in Boyles. (yes I copied Like to Smile, hopefully her first bet is a lucky one )
Also £10 each way on Lilesa at 25/1 in William Hill. The William Hill is literally opposite the Coal Hole, so hopefully drinking my winnings tomorrow night

tomdempsey200

from letsrun:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5736184

We emailed Tom Bedford, son of London elite man Dave Bedford, and asked him about the various pace groups. Which men were in group 1A (61:45) and which in 1b (62:15)?

He wrote back:

Tom Bedford:

1) Mo Farah, Ibrahim Jeilan and Stephen Kiprotich will be pace group 2. Everyone else pace group 1.

2) Women will go through in 69.15-69.30 and negative split.


Read more: http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5736184#ixzz2yhDvqivk

theboyblunder

tomdempsey200 wrote: »

from letsrun:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5736184

We emailed Tom Bedford, son of London elite man Dave Bedford, and asked him about the various pace groups. Which men were in group 1A (61:45) and which in 1b (62:15)?

He wrote back:

Tom Bedford:

1) Mo Farah, Ibrahim Jeilan and Stephen Kiprotich will be pace group 2. Everyone else pace group 1.

2) Women will go through in 69.15-69.30 and negative split.


Read more: http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5736184#ixzz2yhDvqivk

Jelian eh? Didint know he was in it. Interesting. If I had a beard now i'd stroke it......

ecoli

theboyblunder wrote: »

Jelian eh? Didint know he was in it. Interesting. If I had a beard now i'd stroke it......

Step up doesn't seem to have translated well as was 10th in the RAK half earlier this year in 61.47 (course is lightning fast as top 8 went sub 60)

Wouldn't stroke be stroking it too much :pac:

theboyblunder

ecoli wrote: »

(course is lightning fast as top 8 went sub 60)

:eek:

Fair enough, not going to be him so!

echancrure

morceli wrote: »

Yep had expected him to do that . Still going out at sub 2:05 pace which is still impressive /optimistic
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/apr/09/mo-farah-london-marathon

But a couple of time there has been peacemaking groups so close together they just merge. So will wait to see on sunday

"for them to run 2.55 is just jogging" ...:eek:

tomdempsey200

from renato canova on letsrun:
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5735714&page=1#5735936

1) All the best athletes this year are in very good shape, while last year Kenyans were out of shape because there were two and half months of continue rain, not allowing athletes to have a good training.

2) The pace will be very fast, but with Haile pacing, very even, too. This means that 61:45 can have a cost not very high. Under the point of view of how much fuel athletes use for running, it's very much more important to analyze HOW a time comes, than the time itself.
For example, when we go for the final test of lactate, using 6 x 2000m with less than one minute recovery, at increasing speed (6'15" / 6'10" / 6'05" / 6' / 5'55" / 5'50"), if the pace for every test is totally even (in this case we use acustic rabbits, with a bip every 25 meters at the requested speed) we have a real picture of the situation, but if we do the same test without acustic rabbit, and there is some mistake in the ditribution (for example, 6' must be 5 times 72" : if the first lap is 69", and after we have 3 laps in 74", and after we have again the last lap in 69"), the final time is the same, but the level of lactate is significantly higher.

3) In the past, we had some crazy split (the year of Sammy Wanjiru), but with the first 10 km really too fast, situation I don't think we can see again with Haile in front.

4) With this speed, a normal leading Group can be composed in the following way : Wilson Kipsang, Geoffrey Mutai, Emmanuel Mutai, Stanley Biwott, Stephen Kiprotich (he wants to go with the leaders), Tsegaye Kebede, Mekonnen Tsegaye (but he's with the leaders only for growing in experience).

5) May be very difficult to respect the real difference of speed between first and second Group. If at the end of the first half we want 30" of gap between the two groups, inside the race this means about 8 meters of difference every km, and normally this never happens. Knowing the personal tension every pacer has, the second Group has only two chances : a) going together with the first (in this case also Mo and Samuel Tsegay run under 62') or b) trying from the beginning to have more gap (in this case 62:15 can become closer 63:00).

6) Due to this high speed, at even pace, I think nobody wants (or can) try to create a sudden gap running 2-3 km at crazy speed (like Wilson did in the past). I think more logic that, after 30 km, front runners such as Geoffrey (remember Boston 2011...), Wilson, Tsegaye Kebede and Emmanuel Mutai start to push progressively their speed. In my opinion, this is the last Group of runners staying together, with some chance for Stanley Biwott till 5 km from the end.

7) Weather conditions seem to be very much better than last year. For those reason, I think possible to see 2-3 athletes under 2:04 at the end of the race.

8) If the race can follow this development, I think Mo can't have any chance for going on the podium. His realistic goal is to destroy the National record. And, of course, running 10000m in the next WCh 2015 and OG 2016 can remain his priority, because of sure he doesn't look at the Marathon when there are titles to win.


Read more: http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5735714&page=1#5735936#ixzz2yheVOn1d

snailsong

Lilesa now 33/1 on Bet365. I chanced a tenner each way.

tomdempsey200

women's race looks to be between

dibaba
jeptoo
f kiplagat

pc11

tomdempsey200 wrote: »

what's eurosport commentary going to be like

if you're looking for an alternative to bbc

3 hours of Tim 'My word!' Hutchings? Might as well just hit my head with a hammer now and get the migraine over with.

wrstan

tomdempsey200 wrote: »

women's race looks to be between

dibaba
jeptoo
f kiplagat

Brave to be writing off Lorna K so early!

tomdempsey200

it appears the lead group have gone off too fast

that may help mo

ecoli

tomdempsey200 wrote: »

it appears the lead group have gone off too fast

that may help mo

I don't think will be as influential in blowing up as last year for the below point

tomdempsey200 wrote: »

1) All the best athletes this year are in very good shape, while last year Kenyans were out of shape because there were two and half months of continue rain, not allowing athletes to have a good training.

I remember this point being made a few times last year and if you compare the performances in the likes of Boston and London by Kenyan athletes last year to the autumn ones where you will find that alot of these athletes won't die as much as last year.

nobody told me

He's not losing he's just running in the second group. Oh dear lord. Cringe.

ecoli

wrstan wrote: »

Brave to be writing off Lorna K so early!

Not really, its Edna not Lorna running

shels4ever

If foster says "no he is not losing" one more time I'm going to eurosport.

tomdempsey200

nobody told me wrote: »

He's not losing he's just running in the second group. Oh dear lord. Cringe.

he's winning the british race

ecoli

Dibaba having a serious run so far and looks more comfortably now than she did in the first few miles. Seems to have taken a while to settle into the pace

wrstan

ecoli wrote: »

Not really, its Edna not Lorna running

My bad!

I still wouldn't be writing off either of the Kiplagats, although haven't seen a women's' update for a bit.

wrstan

Dibaba is looking amazing

tomdempsey200

wrstan wrote: »

Dibaba is looking amazing

it won't last

she'll fall off the pace

wrstan

Lead women's splits are incredibly consistent, last 5 miles all 5:22/5:23

nobody told me

tomdempsey200 wrote: »

he's winning the british race

No sh1t.

wrstan

2 Kiplagats trying to loose her now
Taken a drinking station drama to create the space.
Dibaba will do well to recover.

But where is Jeptoo?

ecoli

wrstan wrote: »

2 Kiplagats trying to loose her now
Taken a drinking station drama to create the space.
Dibaba will do well to recover.

But where is Jeptoo?

Looking like a DNF I think

morceli

Looks to me that mo is starting to suffer.