Munster v Toulouse, 05/04/2014, 1.30pm. Live on Sky Sports 2 and Newstalk.

former legend · 05-04-2014 7:16am #1

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*McAlister and Nyanga will be confirmed before kick-off; Vincent Clerc and Clement Poitrenaud are on standby.

Featuring more jaded aristocrats and faded glory than season 4 of Downton Abbey, this quarter-final sees four-time champions Toulouse up against double-winners Munster, both teams seeking to revive their former glories and recapture the most coveted trophy in club rugby.

The pre-game buildup has focussed on who is not playing, or might not be playing. Toulouse have left first-choice outhalf and star openside flanker on the bench in the hope that they can play some part, although this will be confirmed closer to kickoff, with Vincent Clerc and Clement Poitrenaud waiting in the wings. Added to the loss of tighthead Census Johnston and the season-long loss of the immense Thierry Dusautoir; this is a weakened Toulouse side.

For their part, Munster are missing Donnacha Ryan while there must be serious doubt over the capacity of captain Peter O'Mahony's hamstring to last 80 minutes. The loss of James Cronin and Stephen Archer from the supporting cast gives a worryingly unfamiliar look to the front-row replacements.

It's tough to call exactly how each team will approach this; Toulouse will be fielding one of the biggest packs ever seen at Thomond and while the loss of Johnston deprives them of some bulk, that is more than offset by the arrival of Tekori in the back row. So it will be interesting to see how they employ their brute force, whether they try to steamroll Munster with raw power and leave their star-studded backline to freeze.
However, the downside of having so many big men in the pack is the possibility that, if Munster can secure enough ball, they can be moved around the pitch to the point of exhaustion. The breakdown work of O'Mahony will be key here; quick ball coming back can hopefully expose gaps around the fringes.

With Beauxis at outhalf, Toulouse will be short on creativity and that probably explains the selection of Vermaak ahead of Doussain, so expect plenty of kicking. If they can get enough ball, the backline of 11-15 is pretty terrifying, Yoann Huget was one of the players of the Six Nations, Gear is lightning quick and if Fritz is back to full fitness after a disrupted season, he is going to be a handful. One possible area of weakness is Gael Fickou; despite his outstanding talent, he has started very few matches of this intensity and with such a hostile crowd; if the occasion gets to him, Munster could make hay.

And so to Munster; how can they target a win? As mentioned above, the breakdown will be key, they need to slow down Toulouse possession and get their own ball away as quickly as possible. Yoann Maestri is an animal when it comes to clearing out rucks so expect some serious collisions. Once possession is secured, what do Munster do with it? They looked seriously short on attacking options last week against Leinster and the introduction of Downey for Hurley won't help matters in that department. Gurthro Steenkamp (122 kg, 49 Springbok caps) is a different proposition to Michael Bent at loosehead and Munster won't be able to rely on their scrum for the sort of points they racked up last week.

They need a big improvement in performance from Conor Murray who was eclipsed by Reddan last week; he needs to be wide awake to any gaps which might appear around the fringes and be gone through the gaps as soon as possible. They need Keatley to be much more threatening in open play and they need their centres to come into the game far more. If gaps can be created, the likes of Laulala, Earls and Zebo have the ability to exploit them but the question is whether Munster can do enough to open those gaps up. We saw some loose kicking last week from Murray, Keatley and Zebo; they just cannot do that when Huget, Gear and Medard are on the other end; precision in every aspect is vital

As the game wears on and the bench comes into play, things could get weird. For as much as Munster have very inexperienced players at 16-18, so too do Toulouse with Cyril Baille still in their academy and Jaba Bregvadze covering hooker with very little experience. At only 90kg, Bregvadze must be one of the smallest front-rowers in the Heineken Cup. CJ Stander's pace and energy off the bench could be key as Toulouse's monsters begin to tire, although Yannick Nyanga could bring the same if he is fit. However, watch out for Gillian Galan, yet another absolute monster of a man and just the sort to steamroll a few tired bodies.

Predictions are a risky business and on paper, it's hard to see where Munster are superior, but this is the Heineken Cup and Munster rarely lose at Thomond, if the crowd have been out of bed long enough to get worked up, that's a massive bonus. Munster will be very familiar with Nigel Owens and should have no problem playing the type of game he wants, so that counts in their favour too. Rob Penney reckons Owens "needs to get his game face on", here's what that might look like, keep an eye out:

Oi, Penney, shuut iiiiit

Toulouse may have their eyes taken off the ball by their injury-disrupted buildup and their struggle to make the Top 14 playoffs, they are always 100% committed to the HC but perhaps that is wavering? They should have had home advantage and probably top-seeding secured but a home defeat to Connacht and a failure to get a BP win at Zebre are not what we have come to expect from them.

If O'Mahony is genuinely fit, if they can gain parity at the scrum and if their halfbacks improve from last week, Munster will win.

Prediction: Munster by 5-10 points.

Muna bhfuil Sky Sports agat, beidh na buaicphointí le feiceail ar TG4 ag 21.15

budhabob · 05-04-2014 7:34am

Quality write-up and agree with all your points. Its going to be a monster battle.

Starting to get that nervous excitement now.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience · 05-04-2014 7:37am

budhabob wrote: »

Quality write-up and agree with all your points. Its going to be a monster battle.

Starting to get that nervous excitement now.

only saw your location there budhabob. Hon the Naas Munster crew!

durkadurka · 05-04-2014 7:41am

Wasn't stander named originally in the A team?

Did someone drop out?

budhabob · 05-04-2014 7:42am

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

only saw your location there budhabob. Hon the Naas Munster crew!

Haha, its the small things eh? (i am a cork man originally - we all have our crosses to bear).

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience · 05-04-2014 7:44am

budhabob wrote: »

Haha, its the small things eh? (i am a cork man originally).

haha, Tipp myself.

Swiwi. · 05-04-2014 7:46am

Leinster winning the battle of the write-ups this weekend :pac:

Molloy to do the Ulster preview please...

budhabob · 05-04-2014 7:48am

Swiwi. wrote: »

Leinster winning the battle of the write-ups this weekend :pac:

Jaysus....them leinster lads would fight with there shoe laces....

phog · 05-04-2014 7:56am

Dampish morning in Limerick but forecast is for little or no rain, greasy field/ball but dry for supporters.

Hoping it's a classic with a Munster win but I'll take any sort of win.

Front row needs to have close to 80 mins in them and we need to be accurate with our kicks, loose kicks will cost us, we can't afford to give them free runs at us.

Supporters need to play their part too, hope Thomond Park rocks today.

Molester Stallone · 05-04-2014 8:17am

I'm expecting a hard 80 minutes, close battle but I do expect us to come away with the win. BJ & Killer are well capable of lasting for 80 mins, and they may have to. We need Earls & Zebo to be at their penetrating best & for LLL to make some incisive runs which Jones can profit from.
A close game, but 5 point win would be my guess

LuckyGent88 · 05-04-2014 8:56am

This is definitely one day I would love to be back home.
I would expect the atmosphere to be awesome; something along the lines of cardiff 2008.

.ak · 05-04-2014 9:00am

I think Munster will pull away after 60 and win it comfortably by 10. Can see Toulouse scoring a soft try early on though to put the willies on.

thomond2006 · 05-04-2014 9:45am

McAlister now starting. Uh oh.

Poitrenaud on the bench instead of Nyanga.

crybaby · 05-04-2014 9:47am

Really looking forward to this one, best of luck to Munster there will be more than a few Leinster fans cheering you on over in Bangkok

Home advantage will carry Munster through to the semi finals

Tox56 · 05-04-2014 9:49am

Surprisingly pumped for this. It's Thomond Park, it's a good Munster team and Toulouse are French. Even if they threaten something early on I think Munster will ease away eventually

Molester Stallone · 05-04-2014 9:50am

thomond2006 wrote: »

McAlister now starting. Uh oh.

Poitrenaud on the bench instead of Nyanga.

McAllister was a doubt for the bench, he may not last too long in this game perhaps.

.ak · 05-04-2014 9:58am

No nyanga is a good thing.

Buer · 05-04-2014 9:59am

thomond2006 wrote: »

McAlister now starting. Uh oh.

Poitrenaud on the bench instead of Nyanga.

I'm not sure that's any advantage to Toulouse, to be honest. I'd have Doussain at 10 if I had to select any of them. McAlister has played 80 minutes since October; I find that a mad decision, to be honest.

Nyanga being unavailable is a big plus. No Nyanga, no Dusautoir, no Lamboley, no Qera; I cannot see anything but Munster dominating the breakdown.

Quint2010 · 05-04-2014 9:59am

Have a feeling Toulouse are going to spoil the Munster party. POC and half fit POM might pull them through but dont think Munster have enough quality and can see Toulouse edging this.

Molester Stallone · 05-04-2014 10:00am

Quint2010 wrote: »

Have a feeling Toulouse are going to spoil the Munster party. POC and half fit POM might pull them through but dont think Munster have enough quality and can see Toulouse edging this.

Pick a window, any window..you're leaving!

vkid · 05-04-2014 10:08am

Can't wait. P!ssy wet morning around Limerick, but buzz nicely building around the city centre.

eyeball kid · 05-04-2014 10:44am

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

only saw your location there budhabob. Hon the Naas Munster crew!

Off to Haydens then to watch it I guess?

matthew8 · 05-04-2014 11:01am

Though I think the Leinster match is the best of the weekend this is the most fascinating for me. Munster should be very wary of Toulouse, they've really come into their own in the Top 14 recently with good performances away to Castres, Toulon and Stade. They definitely look like they have the better backline and though Munster probably have the edge up front you must remember this is a Toulouse team that physically dominated Saracens twice this year. However, without Nyanga and Dusautoir it's hard to see a repeat of those 2 performances up front which is why I give Munster the edge.

locum-motion · 05-04-2014 11:30am

Is it currently forbidden to post or PM links to websites where one might watch the match?
(policy seems to change frequently - can't keep up with it!)

Teferi · 05-04-2014 11:36am

Have my own match to play so missing this one, I hope Munster crush them.

And now to have a shower, I feel dirty just saying that

Grimebox · 05-04-2014 11:52am

Does coverage start at 1? I hope I have the right "channel"

Molester Stallone · 05-04-2014 11:54am

Grimebox wrote: »

Does coverage start at 1? I hope I have the right "channel"

Coverage on sky starts at 1, match starts at 1.30.

Tox56 · 05-04-2014 12:12pm

Oh great it's Frankie Sheahan commentating

Said no one ever

Micky Dolenz · 05-04-2014 12:15pm

Great write up.

Waiting is the hardest part.

Kanrith · 05-04-2014 12:17pm

Really looking forward to this. This weekend has the potential to be something special alright. Here's hoping for 4 great matches and 3 Irish victories.

Fireball07 · 05-04-2014 12:17pm

Can't wait, wish I was there........ need to up our performance levels a huge amount. But I believe we can. (Although I actually think the 23 man squad is weaker this week than last, bar POM... and that could make all the difference).

Grimebox · 05-04-2014 12:20pm

For the amount of words that Quinlan uses, he actually says very little.

Micky Dolenz · 05-04-2014 12:20pm

Yeah. All three provinces can as easily win them as lose them. Exciting times.

Fireball07 · 05-04-2014 12:23pm

I just hope we don't miss Cronin & Archer too much, and don't regret playing Downey and Jones. I don't think we're far from clicking in the backline at all, we've shown flashes. When we inject a bit of urgency into our moves, we have looked dangerous- Earls and Zebo are hungry and come looking for the ball, Jones and Keatley do run good lines, but Murray is the key man in the backline, he has to have a big game.