Longshotvalue in Aintree

longshotvalue

2:30 Aintree

It probably isn’t much of a surprise that I’m going for Menorah here at the current prices. He ran just as poor a race at the festival last year as this and still came out here and ran the race of his life to just fail behind First Lieutenant. The market looks all wrong to me , given that he didn’t run at the festival at all this year First Lieutenant looks the most likely winner and in fact he is probably value as well at 10/3 as I’m doubtful the top 2 in the market will run up to their best. Menorah is 12/1 with Ladbroke’s and that’s just too big to ignore.

1 Point win Menorah 12/1 Ladbrokes

4:15 Aintree

Astracad was my selection for the Grand Annual at Cheltenham and he simple couldn’t jump at all around there, I’m hoping that this will be more up his street and he has some decent form around here., including a very good 2nd in the Old Roan chase last year of 4lbs higher. He is a standout 18/1 with William Hill and that looks a few points too big. I’m also going with a gut feeling bet on Anquetta at a huge price. He is down to his last winning mark and came to life a few times towards the end of last season. He also ran a good race at Cheltenham when making a mistake 2 out when in contention.

1 Point win Astracad 18/1 William Hill
1 Point EW Anquetta 33/1 Generally

5:25 Aintree

Edgardo Sol ran a decent race for me at a huge price in Cheltenham and given that he was outpaced at the critical stage there and finished out his race well, I think he will improve for the step up in trip here. This race is nothing like as good at the Coral Cup and he looks EW value at 33/1 with Betbright.

1 Point EW 33/1 Betbright.

longshotvalue

3:05 Aintree

Rock on Ruby was a disappointment in the Arkle but he is far too big here in the w/o fav market. 10/3 without The New One looks a superb price as I just can’t see that Diakali is a shorter price than him even though he has been very good this year. I think Rock on Ruby doesn’t need to be near his best to grab second here, and for me it is significant that he is running here at all. He has had a very light season and that usually helps in Aintree

2 Points w/o fav 100/30 Paddy Power/VC/Coral

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

3:05 Aintree

Rock on Ruby was a disappointment in the Arkle but he is far too big here in the w/o fav market. 10/3 without The New One looks a superb price as I just can’t see that Diakali is a shorter price than him even though he has been very good this year. I think Rock on Ruby doesn’t need to be near his best to grab second here, and for me it is significant that he is running here at all. He has had a very light season and that usually helps in Aintree

2 Points w/o fav 100/30 Paddy Power/VC/Coral

:D Lovely what a race.. In fairness he got back up for 2nd..

Johner

Well done Aidan! Was a brilliant run from him.

Letyourselfgo

Cheers Aidan, don't normally follow others tips but always keep an eye on you and Rossom. Actually got on at 4.7 on betfair

BQQ

aidankkk wrote: »

:D Lovely what a race.. In fairness he got back up for 2nd..

He would have won in another few strides.
Would have been bittersweet only getting 10/3 then.

longshotvalue

BQQ wrote: »

He would have won in another few strides.
Would have been bittersweet only getting 10/3 then.

Well to be honest i also had him backed on betfair to win so i wouldn't have minded, still he repaid my faith in him. Wish to god he had run in the Champion Hurdle at the 40/1 EW i had NRNB..

Goldcupfav

Any thoughts on Pepite Rose in the Melling tomorrow Aidan? 12/1 looks abit of value to me considering she gets 7lbs plus this race looks like a grade 1 in name only..

longshotvalue

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Any thoughts on Pepite Rose in the Melling tomorrow Aidan? 12/1 looks a bit of value to me considering she gets 7lbs plus this race looks like a grade 1 in name only..

Not Sure but ive been thinking that Good Ground around Aintree would really suit Rathlin for a while and i may get interested in him. Some donkey race all the same..

sdoc13

Hi aidan. Any view on tatenen tomorrow?

longshotvalue

sdoc13 wrote: »

Hi aidan. Any view on tatenen tomorrow?

140 makes me think he wouldn't win, and he doesnt seem to go well around these fences..

sdoc13

aidankkk wrote: »

140 makes me think he wouldn't win, and he doesnt seem to go well around these fences..

Cheers.

ste2010

This thread should be called ask Aidan..
I've got
One thing to say to y'all..
Everyday I'm hussling...

longshotvalue

Aintree 4:50

I’m going to go with 2 horses that ran well at Cheltenham in the County Hurdle without getting any luck. Cash And Go got badly hampered rounding the turn and had little chance after that but ran on well enough. I think his current mark 135 give him a decent chance and the fact that we was well backed a couple of times this year makes me think he could be working well and I think he will suit Paul Carberry well. Alaivan is another horse that has been backed a few times this year but also ran well in the county making a mistake at the last. He certainly is capable of getting involved of a mark of 132 with a decent 5lbs claimer on.

1 Point win Cash And Go 18/1 Stan James/Coral
1 Point win Alaivan 16/1 365/sky/coral

Nulty

aidankkk wrote: »

Aintree 4:50

I’m going to go with 2 horses that ran well at Cheltenham in the County Hurdle without getting any luck. Cash And Go got badly hampered rounding the turn and had little chance after that but ran on well enough. I think his current mark 135 give him a decent chance and the fact that we was well backed a couple of times this year makes me think he could be working well and I think he will suit Paul Carberry well. Alaivan is another horse that has been backed a few times this year but also ran well in the county making a mistake at the last. He certainly is capable of getting involved of a mark of 132 with a decent 5lbs claimer on.

1 Point win Cash And Go 18/1 Stan James/Coral
1 Point win Alaivan 16/1 365/sky/coral

I think Alaivan was in the wrong race at Cheltenham. Should have been in the Coral. I've backed him and Cheltenian, as I did in the Betfair.

longshotvalue

Aintree 3:05

To be honest I never thought that Rathlin would be good enough to win a grade 1, but he will never get a better chance than this race. He will be well suited to the course and ground and could well get sparked to life here. His pounding of Hidden Cyclone on good ground last summer reads well now and 16/1 looks value. He also ran reasonable in the Ryanair and If he can improve for that he wont be far away

1 Point win 16/1 Coral

BumperD

aidankkk wrote: »

Aintree 3:05

To be honest I never thought that Rathlin would be good enough to win a grade 1, but he will never get a better chance than this race. He will be well suited to the course and ground and could well get sparked to life here. His pounding of Hidden Cyclone on good ground last summer reads well now and 16/1 looks value. He also ran reasonable in the Ryanair and If he can improve for that he wont be far away

1 Point win 16/1 Coral

Backed him in the Ryanair, he was tanking and then just seemed to go from cruising to under pressure. Maybe he was a little under cooked?

tomaussie

Aidan, your number 1 stalker here.

What makes you think Walkon will get the distance ? I'd like to back it but it's lack of victory beyond 2.5 miles is very off putting.

Also, you made your selections before knowing the ground. You still happy with across the bay ?

longshotvalue

tomaussie wrote: »

Aidan, your number 1 stalker here.

What makes you think Walkon will get the distance ? I'd like to back it but it's lack of victory beyond 2.5 miles is very off putting.

Also, you made your selections before knowing the ground. You still happy with across the bay ?

I haven't selected Walkon yet but more than likely will at 50/1. Not sure about Across the bay yet he just enjoyed it last year and ran well for most of the race., At the moment i only have Burton Port up at 50/1..

longshotvalue

3:40 Aintree

Looking at last year’s race I think I can be pretty sure than Dunowen Point will be competitive here of 8lbs lower . His runs this year on soft ground can be safely ignored as he certain to be prepared with today in mind. Given that the race has turned out particularly well with the winner following up in the Hennessey he may only need to reproduce that run to win here. His front running style should suit this race and also with only 10:01 on his back he may well be harder to catch this year. 16/1 looks decent value. I also noticed the Giorgio Quercus was in the process of running a big race until he was brought down at the 3rd last. He is 2 lbs. lower this year and has a good 6th in the Byrne Group Place behind him this year. 22/1 looks a bit of value about him.

1 Point win 16/1 Dunowen Point
1 Point win 22/1 Giorgio Quercus

UrbanSea

Cash and Go and Cheltenian the only two I'd back today

handsfree

king of the pics 20/1, placed in his grade 1s over the winter in good races. he's definitely ew material and should go close.

longshotvalue

Aintree 2:50

I think there is too much of a difference in price here between At Fishers Cross and Zarkandar here. Zarkandar was probably asked to do too much in the World Hurdle and really finished his race well just 2 lengths behind the fav here. He could hardly have a better record here and in truth probably should be favourite on his Aintree Hurdle form alone, along with his now proven staying ability. 4/1 looks too big.

2 Points win 4/1 BetVictor/Coral

longshotvalue

Aintree 3:25

I’m tempted by a couple of outside chances here that would need a return to form, but these things happen regularly at Aintree so it may be worth a small investment . Both Vino Greigo and Golden Chieftain have proven in some of their runs to be well capable of winning this of their current marks and have both suddenly improved in the past before. As they are both available at 33/1 or better it’s worth the risk as any return to form by either will put them right in the firing line here.

1 Point win Vino Griego Betfair 44

1 Point win Golden Chieftain Betfair 55

longshotvalue

Grand National

I already have Burton Port selected at 50/1 EW Ante post and I wouldn’t swap that bet for anything now. I’ve looked for a big price angle a number of times in this race and I’m beginning to get the feeling that class may well out here and there is a huge amount of the field that can’t win. It’s a matter of selecting the best value of the class horses as a starting point and at the current price I can’t but be interested in Tidal Bay. It’s not just his class performance in Grade 1 Chases this year but his 3rd on unsuitable ground in the Welsh National that really catches the eye, amazingly 2lbs higher than today. If anything he has been getting better as his mark has dropped and I can’t ignore that at 22/1.

I had Walkon in mind for this all year and although he has a load of negatives in terms of trip I’m going to assume that his trainer knows him better than the rest of us and that put with his top class performance last year over these fences just failing to concede a stone to Triolo D’Alene, has to put him in with a chance here if he can be kept together for the first circuit. 50/1 seems a huge price

I have to go with a couple of min bet at huge prices and the only ones I can see with a small chance a huge prices are Our Father who to my eye looks to be suited by this race. He has run well this year in the Hennessy and ran well at Cheltenham but is still a bit unexposed and could well be better than his mark. I’ll have a small dart at 120 on Betfair. I also think Hunt Ball could be suited by the race and his staying on performance in 4th in the Ryanair was a step back to good form for him and that along with his good 3rd in the Grade 1 Bowl here might give him a tiny squeak at a huge looking 80/1

1 Point win Tidal Bay 22/1 Stan/888/Sporting

1 Point EW Walkon 50/1 5 Places Bet365 (place stake back before 12)

½ Point win Our Father 120 Betfair

½ Point win Hunt Ball 80/1 Various

Advised Already http://longshotvalue.com/grand-national-ante-post/

1 Point EW 50/1 Burton Port RaceBets

longshotvalue

Aintree 5:10

Kashmir Peak caught my eye from a canny trainer who may have targeted a race here. His beating of Sametegal and Vasco Du Ronceray about 16 months ago read well in the context of his mark of 133 and he looks worth a shot at 28 on Betfair . He is fit from running on the flat.

1 Point win Betfair 28

BQQ

aidankkk wrote: »

Aintree 3:25

I’m tempted by a couple of outside chances here that would need a return to form, but these things happen regularly at Aintree so it may be worth a small investment . Both Vino Greigo and Golden Chieftain have proven in some of their runs to be well capable of winning this of their current marks and have both suddenly improved in the past before. As they are both available at 33/1 or better it’s worth the risk as any return to form by either will put them right in the firing line here.

1 Point win Vino Griego Betfair 44

1 Point win Golden Chieftain Betfair 55

Had my eye on these too.
Went with Vino. 3lbs lower than when giving Rolling Aces a beating in December.

sdoc13

aidankkk wrote: »

Aintree 3:25

I’m tempted by a couple of outside chances here that would need a return to form, but these things happen regularly at Aintree so it may be worth a small investment . Both Vino Greigo and Golden Chieftain have proven in some of their runs to be well capable of winning this of their current marks and have both suddenly improved in the past before. As they are both available at 33/1 or better it’s worth the risk as any return to form by either will put them right in the firing line here.

1 Point win Vino Griego Betfair 44

1 Point win Golden Chieftain Betfair 55

Sic.

andyman

Well done on Vino. Was on him myself. New he had a good run in him despite a poor season

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Aintree 3:25

I’m tempted by a couple of outside chances here that would need a return to form, but these things happen regularly at Aintree so it may be worth a small investment . Both Vino Greigo and Golden Chieftain have proven in some of their runs to be well capable of winning this of their current marks and have both suddenly improved in the past before. As they are both available at 33/1 or better it’s worth the risk as any return to form by either will put them right in the firing line here.

1 Point win Vino Griego Betfair 44

1 Point win Golden Chieftain Betfair 55

Feck that was torture up the run in:(:(

hudhastings

Ya Aidankkk backed him also gutted. Did not do e/w ow well get them next time