Leinster v Munster, Saturday March 29th, Aviva Stadium, 1900 TG4 #MOD NOTE POST 36#

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

I only started writing this at half two, so ignore any inconsistencies/errors



Ladyboys

15. Rob Kearney
14. Fergus McFadden
13. Brian O'Driscoll
12. Gordon D'Arcy
11. Luke Fitzgerald
10. Ian Madigan
9. Eoin Reddan
1. Michael Bent
2. Richardt Strauss
3. Mike Ross
4. Devin Toner
5. Mike McCarthy
6. Kevin McLaughlin
7. Shane Jennings
8. Jamie Heaslip CAPTAIN
16. Sean Cronin
17. Jack O'Connell
18. Ed Byrne
19. Leo Cullen
20. Jordi Murphy
21. Isaac Boss
22. Jimmy Gopperth
23. Zane Kirchner

Turnip Munchers

Felix Jones; Keith Earls, Casey Laulala, Denis Hurley, Simon Zebo; Ian Keatley, Conor Murray; Dave Kilcoyne, Damien Varley, BJ Botha; Dave Foley, Paul O' Connell; Peter O'Mahony(Capt), Tommy O'Donnell, James Coughlan. Replacements: Duncan Casey, James Cronin, Alan Cotter, Donncha O'Callaghan, CJ Stander, Duncan Williams, JJ Hanrahan, Gerhard van den Heever.



With the Six Nations over and done, it's time for domestic rugby to hurtle towards the business end of the season. Leinster hosting Munster in the Aviva is supposed to be the biggest fixture in the league stage of the Rabo. But the proximity to the Heineken Cup quarter have made the fixture a bit of a damp squib in recent years.

Even the bitterness that seemed to exist between certain sections of the two camps has disappeared with the departure of several key figures.

That said we should still expect a fiery encounter tomorrow evening, even if each team will have an eye on the two French giants awaiting next weekend.

Front Row

Once again Rob Penney has opted for Dave Kilcoyne in a big game. It's somewhat perplexing considering the injuries that have befallen Leinster's Martin Moore and Tadhg Furlong. Cronin is a superior scrummager and it's hard to argue that his form doesn't merit hims starting a big game at this stage in his development.

Michael Bent seems more suited to loosehead but his credentials haven't been tested against someone of BJ Botha's quality yet. He'll be doing very well to gain parity while Ross will try to even the odds somewhat by targeting Dave Kilcoyne.

Strauss and Varley are both back from injury but it's hard to argue against the superiority of the South African born Irishman in this department. Varley is good in the loose but the pin-point precision of Duncan Casey may well be needed off the bench.

Even missing Stephan Archer Munster should be aiming to get on top at scrum time, especially if Leinster have to rely on Ed Byrne and Jack O'Connell off the bench.

Second Row

One area that Munster have a distinct advantage in from the offset has been hampered by a set-back in Donnacha Ryan's recovery from injury even if Dave Foley is a promising young player in a good vein of form.

The aerial battle between Toner and POC should be fascinating. Two world class lineout operators who only a few weeks previous were partnering each other to a six nations title. Toner arguably out-performed POC over the course of the competition. Another solid performance would go a long way towards silencing the ever dwindling critics of the giant lock.

Much has been made of the Munster players omitted from the Irish squad but it's worth noting that Mike McCarthy will have a big point to prove since slipping down the pecking order since November.

Off the bench DOC will have more impact than a Leo Cullen in dramatic regression.

Back row

Big area of worry for Leinster. On form their unit is more than capable of causing problems for Munster at the breakdown. But Kevin McGloughlin was very rusty last weekend and Shane Jennings has looked rather out of sorts this season. Both need to raise their games massively.

Peter O'Mahoney performing to the best of his ability will go a long way towards Munster winning in Dublin.

Heaslip is going to have to carry a lot of ball with SOB and Healy missing.

Both jordi Muprhy and CJ Stander offer each side versatile impact off the bench.

Halfbacks

Conor Murray is far and away the best operator either side can boast at 9 or 10. But the combination of Reddan and Madigan might be slightly more slick than Keatley/Murray if they can get some decent go forward ball.

Madigan has a massive chance to stake a claim to start what would be the biggest game of his career next weekend. It hasn't really happened for him this season and if Munster can get the Leinster pack on the backfoot it could spell trouble.

Ian Keatley has been one of Munster's most consistent performers this season. A bit of an unsung hero (maybe down to his Leinster roots :pac:).

Leinster can turn to Jimmy Gopperth if the ship needs to be steadied while Munster have the prolific talent of JJ Hanrahan to call upon. Both Hanrahan and Gopperth are pushing hard for a starting place and could have a big say in the business end of the game.

Centre

Well, even parity here would be a plus for Munster.

Denis Hurley is playing for his career at the province. At 29, it's somewhat amazing that he's only being tried in the centre now considering his skillset and offloading ability.

Hurley and Casey LLL will be looking to Simon Zebo and Keith Earls to get tight on their shoulders.

the BOD/Darcy axis doesn't need much explaining. Their effectiveness in attack will depend a lot on Madigan's performance and the ability for Leinster to get front-foot ball

Back three

For the sake of the fixture I really hope we see all six of these guys with plenty of ball in hand.

I can't separate the two units. Other than Rob Kearney's superiority over Jones arguments can be made in favour of all four wingers.

Fitzgerald showed no signs of his form slipping after another spell on the sidelines last week. Fitzgerald and Earls looked nailed on to start for Ireland in this six nations but for injury and will cause huge problems for defenses if they get an inch of space.

Fergus McFadden will be hoping to push a claim to start the HC quarter.

The performance of Simon Zebo, good bad or indifferent, will likely take up most of this thread!

Prediction

Without SOB/Healy/McGrath I just don't see where Leinster are going to get the go forward ball to win this fixture. Munster should have a bit more fluidity given the squad was together for a lot longer over the six nations.

Munster to edge a tight affair.


Oh, and at the end of the day, it's only a game lads. We're all cut from the same cloth!

molloyjh

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

...if Munster can get the Leinster pack on the backfoot it could spell trouble.

I think this is huge. Madigan will suffer if we can't secure good quality ball and I think we could be in serious trouble in that department. Our back line is where we have the advantage in this one and we need our forwards to give Madigan the chance to get into his groove. I'm not sure they will.

Sadly I'd have to agree with your prediction Ugo. I just can't see Leinster winning this one with that front-row and that back row.

Podge_irl

Where the **** is the table Ugo?

Podge_irl

Shoddy presentation aside, I largely agree. I think the injuried in the back and front row have really swung this in Munster's favour. We'll be relying on Ross to put in the 80 and while Bent is a capable scrummager at LH he is iffy in the loose - he's had some pretty bad missed tackles this season and he obviously provides nothing like the go-forward that Healy and McGrath bring.

I wouldn't ordinarily class McLaughlin as a weak point but he just hasn't hit top form this season and Ruddock has been immense. Jennings is getting on a bit too.

Annoying that it's our two strongest areas of the pitch where Leinster would expect to have a solid advantage that they've been most hit. I quite like the look of the Leinster backline but don't feel Madser will get the kind of ball that will let him utilise them fully. If Sexton was playing I'd feel better but under the circumstances I really do think Munster will take this - and that's after I spent the week supremely confident this was Leinster's to lose.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

If you want bells and whistles you can go to Thomond or Molloy for a match preview :pac:

I keep mine ugly and unapproachable. Much like the game itself

former legend

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

We're all cut from the same cloth!

We are not! It's expertly-tailored Italian suits against Aran jumpers and Penneys slacks this weekend.

Good man USME. I think Denis Hurley could be a massive selection; he's never really been a top player but by jaysus he can offload out of a tackle and that's what Munster have been missing to get the best out of Laulala IMO. If they can click, it could pay dividends.

The only quibble I'd have with your write-up is saying Murray is "far and away the best operator either side can boast at either 9 or 10"; Reddan has been in fantastic form this season for both province and country and he's not as far behind Murray as many people think.

I don't think we're going to be in for a great spectacle; these games very rarely live up to the hype.

Overall, I think the loss of three international props, O'Brien and Ruddock is going to make it very hard for Leinster to compete physically, serious lack of big ball carriers now, and for the first time in a long while, the Munster bench may actually be stronger than Leinster's.

I think I'm going to have to predict a Munster win by 5-10 points.

eyeball kid

Good write up Ugo. With the injuries to Leinster I think Munster just might sneak this one. Going to be very close though.

stephen_n

Even if we had been at full strength I think we'd have struggled but with the injuries in the forwards, this could be a damage limitation exercise to try get a loosing bonus point, prediction now Munster +10.

Podge_irl

stephen_n wrote: »

Even if we had been at full strength I think we'd have struggled.

Why? Out of curiosity

Coburger

All Irish players for Leinster

Zzippy

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

If you want bells and whistles you can go to Thomond or Molloy for a match preview :pac:

I keep mine ugly and unapproachable. Much like the game itself myself

FYP

Great write-up, cheers!

stephen_n

Podge_irl wrote: »

Why? Out of curiosity

Because I think when we come up against better teams, we are always going to struggle playing how we have this season. We never would have physically dominated Munster one way or the other but now we will struggle to maintain ball let alone dominate. I think MOC's tactics require that, we won't be able to force Munster in to making mistakes to capitalise on and I haven't seen any sign of tactics that suggest we are clinical enough to survive off scraps anymore. I reckon the gameplan tmw, will be kick the ball into the Munster 22 all day, then try defend in their half, this requires huge physicality and trying to dominate the breakdowns. It will be interesting to see if we try to tackle up high outside our 22.

Buer

stephen_n wrote: »

We never would have physically dominated Munster one way or the other

I'd definitely question that. Guys like McCarthy, Healy, McGrath, SOB and Ruddock are physical freaks in terms of power and in collisions. I'd definitely give Leinster the edge if all of them (or even with SOB out) were available.

matthew8

Leinster by 5 for me. Being at home is a big deal in Leinster-Munster, enough to turn the tables even when one side is stronger than the other. And I don't buy that a Leinster team with so many big names for Ireland are at a disadvantage on paper just because Bent/McLaughlin/Jennings are starters.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

matthew8 wrote: »

Leinster by 5 for me. Being at home is a big deal in Leinster-Munster, enough to turn the tables even when one side is stronger than the other. And I don't buy that a Leinster team with so many big names for Ireland are at a disadvantage on paper just because Bent/McLaughlin/Jennings are starters.

You don't buy that Leinster are at a disadvantage missing Healy/McGrath/SOB/Ruddock?

phog

Coburger wrote: »

All Irish players for Leinster

Gopperth & Kirchner?

Eponymous

matthew8 wrote: »

Leinster by 5 for me. Being at home is a big deal in Leinster-Munster, enough to turn the tables even when one side is stronger than the other. And I don't buy that a Leinster team with so many big names for Ireland are at a disadvantage on paper just because Bent/McLaughlin/Jennings are starters.

Jenno always plays out of his skin for these ties.

Benty starting is a big issue for us and I think he's going to be targeted from the first scrum although he has improved somewhat from his unfortunate debut season.

I don't buy the home advantage either. We're in the palindrome and it's hardly a fortress for us. Add to that the fact that tickets were readily available and you could have a very vocal away support or (even worse) tourists who are there for the Facebook selfies and status updates.

I just wish they'd play a game like this in the RDS and stop chasing the €€€€. The atmosphere would be intense.

Buer

phog wrote: »

Gopperth & Kirchner?

The starting side.

LeinsterDub

Eponymous wrote: »

I just wish they'd play a game like this in the RDS and stop chasing the €€€€. The atmosphere would be intense.

To the extent of losing sob or Jamie or a other big name overseas? The piper has to be paid somehow.

stephen_n

Buer wrote: »

I'd definitely question that. Guys like McCarthy, Healy, McGrath, SOB and Ruddock are physical freaks in terms of power and in collisions. I'd definitely give Leinster the edge if all of them (or even with SOB out) were available.

The edge yes but I think Munster could have at least held their own against us, I doubt we would have dominated them up front.

former legend

Some random facts for yiz (I'm on a Friday afternoon go-slow).

Despite injuries to Six Nations winners Healy, McGrath, Moore, Ruddock and Kearney (and the absence of Sean O'Brien), the Leinster XV is composed entirely of capped Irish internationals, plus four more and a Springbok on the bench. Munster have a paltry 13 internationals in their XV.

Munster have not won in Dublin since September 2008; in the six defeats since then, the cumulative score is 138-61 and the try count is 11-3. However, since the opening of the Aviva, the gap has narrowed to an average margin of six points and a try count of 4-3 over three matches.

Leo Cullen played against Munster for the first time in 1998, a 25-10 defeat in Donnybrook. Peter Stringer is the only other player involved that day still active. Of tomorrow's Munster squad, Donnacha O'Callaghan is the longest-serving player in this fixture (2000).

Each XV features two players who began their careers at the other province, although Ian Keatley never appeared for the Leinster senior team while Mike Ross and Felix Jones only made one senior appearance each for their native provinces.

Buer

All the best to Leinster's new signing this weekend.

.ak

Hickie and Horgan to run riot!

matthew8

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

You don't buy that Leinster are at a disadvantage missing Healy/McGrath/SOB/Ruddock?

They're massive losses but I think the advantage Munster have in the forwards is evened out by Leinster's in the backs. And even in the forwards Leinster have 5 very strong players in Strauss, Ross, McCarthy, Toner and Heaslip. Kev and Jennings are definitely capable of putting in the performances required too, Bent is my only major worry.

who_me

Buer wrote: »

All the best to Leinster's new signing this weekend.

Hah!

Well, that's definitely holding on. He'd penalise himself if he hadn't just swallowed the whistle..

Eponymous

LeinsterDub wrote: »

To the extent of losing sob or Jamie or a other big name overseas? The piper has to be paid somehow.

Didn't stop us losing J10.

We could play every game in the Aviva and it doesn't matter a jot if the IRFU don't want to play ball.

former legend

LeinsterDub wrote: »

To the extent of losing sob or Jamie or a other big name overseas? The piper has to be paid somehow.

33,000 extra seats at a conservative average of €40 = €1.3 million before anyone buys a pint or a hot-dog. Greater expense associated with staging it at the Aviva, of course, but it's a no-brainer really.

It's good for Irish rugby and the league to have such high-profile ties generating a bit of publicity.

Swiwi.

Buer wrote: »

All the best to Leinster's new signing this weekend.

Is it just me Buer, or did you happen to choose the photo that makes him look like a simpleton...

Buer

Swiwi. wrote: »

Is it just me Buer, or did you happen to choose the photo that makes him look like a simpleton...

Nope, he just went to Blackrock.

Beadyeye

Can't wait for a great game, I know it's broadcast on TG4, but does anyone know how I can listen to an English language commentary radio or stream? Thanks in advance

phog

Beadyeye wrote: »

Can't wait for a great game, I know it's broadcast on TG4, but does anyone know how I can listen to an English language commentary radio or stream? Thanks in advance

AFAIK, Michael Corcoran is on RTE radio

former legend

Beadyeye wrote: »

Can't wait for a great game, I know it's broadcast on TG4, but does anyone know how I can listen to an English language commentary radio or stream? Thanks in advance

Radio commentary on RTE1 and via the website.

vienne86

Beadyeye wrote: »

Can't wait for a great game, I know it's broadcast on TG4, but does anyone know how I can listen to an English language commentary radio or stream? Thanks in advance

I think it's on RTE 1.

Beadyeye

Thanks everyone for the replies, appreciate it a lot!

Molester Stallone

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

If you want bells and whistles you can go to Thomond or Molloy for a match preview :pac:

I keep mine ugly and unapproachable. Much like the game itself

Much like yourself you mean!

awec

Just to point out lads and ladies - none of us mods really fancy spending our Saturday night sifting through pages of bollocks to find out who is causing problems and who is trolling etc.

So during and after the game if you act the dick you will just be banned for at least 24 hours.

This includes nonsense about referee bias, abuse of players, abuse of pundits, abuse of coaches, abuse of other posters, the fact TG4 isn't in English etc. You all know the rules by now.

Enjoy the game, hopefully neither of you win.

thomond2006

The trolls have been in good form lately, I reckon they've a good chance of winning tomorrow. :pac:

CatFromHue

The bench tomorrow will be a bit of a worry in Byrne, JOC, and Cullen up against Cronin, Cotter, and DOC.

You could argue that Casey will help the Munster line out more if he;s brought on instead of Varley.

Murphy and Stander could be an interesting battle to see who will offer more when brought on, I think Murphy will shade it though.

In Boss, Gopperth, and Kirchner we've some good options there but

rockbeast

Munster look to have a clear edge in the pack, Leinster an edge in backs. Backrows will decide the games though IMO as usual in these encounters.

I think all four midfielders are slow(ish), perhaps the slowest 4 I've seen in a game of this calibre TBH. Plenty of quicksand in the Aviva tomorrow!

If Leinster can limit the number of scrums I think they should win but not by much. All about presenting clear ball for Reddan.

Personally I think madigan will move to receive the ball close to the gainline a lot more with Hurley at 12 than he would with Downey there. Don't think he's gonna sit deep and kick for territory as a gameplan.

If Keatley is on form and can get the ball to LL in a yard of space, I expect to see Jones running some good lines off LL's shoulder, inside and out, to receive and break gainline.

Will be interesting to see how Hurley is used and if or how often Murray will trust to pass to him, if at all...

I'm sticking a fiver on the draw as I can't decide!

* Please no injuries for either side! Wish I could have the same desire for the Tou/Tou clash ;-)

phog

Darcy/BOD could easily exploit our experimental midfield combo, any loose ball could be punished.

I'd be hopeful of a win but by no means overly confident.

captbarnacles

Interesting going by what's posted so far by both Leinster AND Munster fans Munster +6 looks like bet of the century. Home advantage worth 6 points? doesn't seem likely. I'm persuaded. Lumping on.

rockbeast

captbarnacles wrote: »

Interesting going by what's posted so far by both Leinster AND Munster fans Munster +6 looks like bet of the century. Home advantage worth 6 points? doesn't seem likely. I'm persuaded. Lumping on.

There's your mistake:D

captbarnacles

Too late!

rockbeast

captbarnacles wrote: »

Too late!

Nah, you should be safe either way:)

The Pheasant2

Just been given an adult and 2 children's tickets for tomorrow...obviously I'll be taking the lads though! Would we get away with using the kids tickets?

Podge_irl

The Pheasant2 wrote: »

Just been given an adult and 2 children's tickets for tomorrow...obviously I'll be taking the lads though! Would we get away with using the kids tickets?

It's an automated ticket checking thing and I've never seen anyone manually check a damn thing in the aviva.

durkadurka

The Pheasant2 wrote: »

Just been given an adult and 2 children's tickets for tomorrow...obviously I'll be taking the lads though! Would we get away with using the kids tickets?

You probably will. The stewards don't check xlosely and the turnstile ticket reader is blind to it. I've often thought of doing it meself!

awec

All the stewards check is that you are on the correct coloured route.

rockbeast

durkadurka wrote: »

You probably will. The stewards don't check xlosely and the turnstile ticket reader is blind to it. I've often thought of doing it meself!

You get into the ground alright. The lad with the adult ticket should just "occupy" the steward while the two "kids" walk in!

He should be fine*.

* But cheeky!

OR just say you are a 10 year old of Samoan descent!

The Lost Sheep

The Pheasant2 wrote: »

Just been given an adult and 2 children's tickets for tomorrow...obviously I'll be taking the lads though! Would we get away with using the kids tickets?

Ive been doing it for years. Way cheaper and more money for drinking:P
You wont be stopped unless you are very unlucky.

Fireball07

I would have hoped we could win if both teams were at full-strength... with Leinster missing so many, I really think we should be winning this, even at Lansdowne Road.


We're not quite at our strongest team, I'd argue that maybe Cronin, Sherry, Ryan, JJ and Murphy would all be included but 3 of those players are available, just on the bench. We should have a scrummaging advantage, an advantage in the back row and second row. I think we should have the edge at half-back, I think the back 3 is close... and while we mightn't have better centres, the choice of Hurley is the right one imo. He can offload and offers more than Downey, even in an unfamiliar position.


Having Cotter on the bench really isn't ideal, and feel sorry for Murphy, but I'm glad that Casey made the cut and our bench is strong too.



Obviously Leinster aren't just going to roll over, and it will undoubtedly be tight but I will be really disappointed if we don't give this everything, and I think we have the better 15 and 23 available.