Economist article on the future of jobs

MrSzyslak

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21594264-previous-technological-innovation-has-always-delivered-more-long-run-employment-not-less

anyone read this? what do people thing?

According to this the Accounting function seems very probable to be replaced by computerization over the next two decades. be starting with the big 4 in September so this is a little worrying, I may just be ok but I wonder what the long term future of the profession looks like..

smcgiff

If, by accountant, they mean bookkeeper then they will probably be right, but accountants are much more than processors of data. If accountants are for the chop it would mean Management itself would be in trouble. I don't see that happening in the next 20 years.

Martin567

Even as far as "data processing" is concerned, no matter how sophisticated the software it still requires human beings to monitor it. Rubbish in = Rubbish out. If you go too far in that direction, there will be a complete dependence on systems to produce accurate figures and a shortage of people who understand these systems and whether they are reliable or not.

I've always been suspicious of those who claim to be more than just "bean counters" and they say this as if actually preparing accounts is beneath them. In many cases, I believe that those who shout this the loudest would be incapable of producing the accounts if put to the test. The current system seems to be sending out more and more qualified accountants who have never been taught the fundamental basics of accounts production. Believing that this doesn't matter because computers will do all the work for you is a huge mistake in my opinion. Irrespective of how big the company or how sophisticated the software, the fundamental basics of accounts will always remain the same.

I think a bigger problem is the oversupply of accountants. Membership of CAI, for example, has doubled in the past ten years or so. From my own experience, the current supply is far in excess of the demand and you are considered "old" by your mid thirties. The concepts of experience and maturity don't seem to matter much. The President of CAI recently commented that the Big 4 take on 1,000 new trainees every Autumn and we should be shouting this from the rooftops as a new multinational providing this many new jobs would be the first item on the news. I would have very severe doubts as to whether this vast number of new trainees every year is a positive development at all.

MrSzyslak

Martin567 wrote: »

Even as far as "data processing" is concerned, no matter how sophisticated the software it still requires human beings to monitor it. Rubbish in = Rubbish out. If you go too far in that direction, there will be a complete dependence on systems to produce accurate figures and a shortage of people who understand these systems and whether they are reliable or not.

I've always been suspicious of those who claim to be more than just "bean counters" and they say this as if actually preparing accounts is beneath them. In many cases, I believe that those who shout this the loudest would be incapable of producing the accounts if put to the test. The current system seems to be sending out more and more qualified accountants who have never been taught the fundamental basics of accounts production. Believing that this doesn't matter because computers will do all the work for you is a huge mistake in my opinion. Irrespective of how big the company or how sophisticated the software, the fundamental basics of accounts will always remain the same.

I think a bigger problem is the oversupply of accountants. Membership of CAI, for example, has doubled in the past ten years or so. From my own experience, the current supply is far in excess of the demand and you are considered "old" by your mid thirties. The concepts of experience and maturity don't seem to matter much. The President of CAI recently commented that the Big 4 take on 1,000 new trainees every Autumn and we should be shouting this from the rooftops as a new multinational providing this many new jobs would be the first item on the news. I would have very severe doubts as to whether this vast number of new trainees every year is a positive development at all.

sure is a a of new trainees every year, i think I heard that only about 10% stay after the 3 years, id like to know how many of these freshly quality accountants walk into good jobs afterwards, are you guarantee employment afterwards?

starting to wonder should I have followed a different path but I am kind of committed now. after all the study for leaving cert then degree , then 3 years work/more exams. you'd like it to be very worth my while!!

Jim2007

Well speaking as a FCA who writes code for a living, I'd say yes an awful lot that you do can be done by computers and we've gone along way past simply automating the bookkeeping!

These days most of the basic stuff is outsourced and the in house stuff is concentrated on the value added stuff using advanced maths & stats to do things like pattern matching and so on. Such techniques can be used to perform reasonability checks on data, just like a person might do, only faster. Or build some of the advanced dashboards that are popping up.

But having said that, I'd say that outsourcing represents a much bigger threat. Most of the work done by accountants is not location specific and there is no reason why an Indian CA could not do all the back office work for a Dublin based partner for instance! And in fact right now I'm working on a two way anonimization process that will a Swiss firm do something like that.

MrSzyslak

Jim2007 wrote: »

Well speaking as a FCA who writes code for a living, I'd say yes an awful lot that you do can be done by computers and we've gone along way past simply automating the bookkeeping!

These days most of the basic stuff is outsourced and the in house stuff is concentrated on the value added stuff using advanced maths & stats to do things like pattern matching and so on. Such techniques can be used to perform reasonability checks on data, just like a person might do, only faster. Or build some of the advanced dashboards that are popping up.

But having said that, I'd say that outsourcing represents a much bigger threat. Most of the work done by accountants is not location specific and there is no reason why an Indian CA could not do all the back office work for a Dublin based partner for instance! And in fact right now I'm working on a two way anonimization process that will a Swiss firm do something like that.

Yeah to be honest I thought a about the whole outsourcing too before deciding to go down the accounting root. There has been warnings of this for years but it has never seems to fully materialized and any list you read of best careers for future etc. always lists accountants auditors financial analyst near the top. Its tough to know, you need to decide on something I suppose, maybe I should of went with engineering ha..

Jim2007

MrSzyslak wrote: »

Yeah to be honest I thought a about the whole outsourcing too before deciding to go down the accounting root. There has been warnings of this for years but it has never seems to fully materialized and any list you read of best careers for future etc. always lists accountants auditors financial analyst near the top. Its tough to know, you need to decide on something I suppose, maybe I should of went with engineering ha..

Well of course there will always be demand for accountants, just not as many as in the past. Going forward you probably need to think about combining knowledge and in that respect IT and Accounting are a good mix, as many of the new systems will require that kind of knowledge.

Another big area is content providers - take a look at the English version of the Swiss Post bank site. All of that content is provided by an outside firm. The provision of content for financial sites is another big area. So combining accounting with journalism is another idea.

MrSzyslak

http://goingconcern.com/post/it-almost-certain-you-will-one-day-be-replaced-machines