Ireland v Italy; Aviva 08/03/14, 1430 - RTE2, BBC1, RTE Radio 1 [mod warning #323]

former legend

A Parisse-less Italy look to turn their season around...

Ireland: Rob Kearney (Leinster); Andrew Trimble (Ulster), Brian O'Driscoll (Leinster), Gordon D'Arcy (Leinster), Dave Kearney (Leinster); Jonathan Sexton (Racing Metro), Conor Murray (Munster); Cian Healy (Leinster), Rory Best (Ulster), Mike Ross (Leinster), Devin Toner (Leinster), Paul O'Connell (Munster) capt; Ian Henderson (Ulster), Chris Henry (Ulster), Jamie Heaslip (Leinster).

Replacements: Sean Cronin (Leinster), Jack McGrath (Leinster), Martin Moore (Leinster), Rhys Ruddock (Leinster), Jordi Murphy (Leinster), Eoin Reddan (Leinster), Paddy Jackson (Ulster), Fergus McFadden (Leinster)

Italy: McLean, Esposito, Campagnaro, Garcia, Sarto, Orquera, Tebaldi, Castro, Ghiraldini, de Marchi, Geldenhuys, Bortolami (capt), Furno, Derbyshire, Barbieri

Replacements: Giazzon, Rizzo, Cittadini, Pavanello, Vosawai, Gori, Allan, Masi

Ireland’s track record against Italy in the Six Nations has been nothing if not consistent; played 14, won 13. The side which lost to Italy at Stadio Olimpico last March was ravaged by injury and bereft of any tactical direction but were very much the second-best team on the park. The three yellow cards accumulated by Ireland that day mirrored the frustration felt by the fans at the end of an atrocious campaign.
But like so often before, the Italians have not managed to push on from what could have been a watershed season for them; wins over France and Ireland made 2013 a truly historic campaign but 2014 has seen three defeats from three, including the most disheartening of all, a win for Scotland in Rome after Italy looked to have the game won.
So the question is, how will Italy react? Will they reform the line and lay waste to the Celtic savages, like the Roman legionnaires of old, or will they collapse in the face of a better equipped and better organised foe, like the soliders of Mussolini?

Unfortunately, from a neutral perspective at least, the signs would point to the latter. Italy have shown a lot of the old reliable characteristics, like a powerful scrum and potent back-row but have continued to be haunted by their inability to find a top-class halfback unit or a reliable goal-kicker. Their lack of depth in the squad means they struggle to remain competitive in the closing stages so Ireland will be looking to turn the screw as the game wears on. An injury to captain Sergio Parisse is an absolute hammer blow to their chances and the loss of Alessandro Zanni has turned one of their strongest units into an area of weakness. Almost everything positive about Italy has flowed through Parisse so the importance of his absence cannot be overstated.

Ireland, under their new coach, arrive into the game in a much more optimistic frame of mind. The handsome margins of victory over Wales and Scotland means that the title is still in our hands and Ireland will be looking to stretch further the gap in points difference with a handsome win on Saturday.

As expected, Schmidt has gone for minimal changes, with only Henderson replacing the injured O’Mahony in the XV from Twickenham, with Rhys Ruddock hoping to make his first Six Nations appearance of 2014 off the bench. This consistency of selection will disappoint many observers who were hoping for a greater degree of rotation with a view to building a deeper squad with RWC 2015 fast approaching. Schmidt seems to have taken the view that results take precedence and clearly none of the fringe players have made the required impression to force their way in.


Where the game will be won and lost
In truth, it’s hard to see where Italy can hope to achieve dominance and punish Ireland. Their traditional weapon of choice, raw forward power, may not be enough given that Ireland’s tactics this season have also been based heavily on the same power, but with the Irish scrum looking the better unit so far and the Irish forwards appearing to be better drilled, Ireland should have the edge here.


Assuming Sexton is fully fit, Ireland should have a massive advantage at half back. The return of Tito Tebaldi and Luciano Orquera to the team offers a more experienced, option but this is a definite area of strength for Ireland.


Given the continued exclusion of certain players from the backline and persistent questions about the game-breaking ability of the Irish wingers, a lot of focus will fall on how Ireland perform in the backline. Against a relatively callow Italian line, there should be plenty of space to be found and fans will be hoping that the narrow game plan adopted against Wales and England will be expanded somewhat.
That said, the kicking game that was so successful against Wales could be expected to deliver more benefits against Italy than it did against England so we may see that making a return, but hopefully as part of a more varied gameplan.


The key match-ups

Ross v De Marchi
The emergence of the Treviso prop as a real prospect at loose-head has been one of the bright spots of Italy’s campaign and recent reports indicate he may be plying his trade in England next season. He will be a real handful for 34-year old Ross whose form this season has varied wildly. The introduction of the new scrum laws appeared to nullify a lot of his strengths but he has recovered well as the season has worn on and Ireland’s scrum has been very comfortable in the Six Nations. If Ross can anchor it again for 50-60 minutes, then Ireland will have cancelled out one of Italy’s few weapons.


O’Driscoll v Campagnaro

Michele Campagnaro grounds the ball against Wales

20-year old Michele Campagnaro made his debut for Italy in the Autumn but really announced his arrival on the international scene in the first round of the Six Nations with two tries and a man of the match performance against Wales. In many ways, he’s in the same mould as O’Driscoll, a good turn of pace and a great step but not the most physically imposing centre, relying more on his footwork and reading of the game to make an impact. O’Driscoll plays his last home game for Ireland this weekend and, while no-one has called for him to be dropped, there are always concerns about whether he still offers the same attacking threat as before. There’s no doubting his value in terms of leadership or defence, but he will be hoping to leave the Aviva in style with a few flashes of attacking brilliance.


In conclusion, it’s hard to see past an Ireland win but the margin and manner of victory will still come under serious scrutiny. Paddy Power rate Ireland as 22 point favourites for this; if Ireland can achieve that, then we can ride the wave of optimism for another week at least but a one-score win will mean the voices questioning Schmidt’s decisions will get louder and more numerous.

Everyone’s favourite Welshman, Nigel Owens, takes the whistle for this one, so no excuses will be permitted!

Prediction: Ireland by 15-20 points.

As an aside, Hugh Cahill will be calling this for RTE with Ralph Keyes on sidekick duty, otherwise Eddie Butler and Philip Matthews will be on BBC.

.ak

Orquera is a great player on his day and could cause us problems I reckon.

ssaye2

.ak wrote: »

Orquera is a great player on his day and could cause us problems I reckon.

He is not great in fairness, had good games but great is overdoing it imo.

Parisse is
So much of Italys play is around Parisse, I just cant see them doing much whatsoever.

Will be disappointed if we dont hammer them by 20+ points and concede no tries.

.ak

ssaye2 wrote: »

He is not great in fairness, had good games but great is overdoing it imo.

So much of Italys play is around Parisse, I just cant see them doing much whatsoever.

Will be disappointed if we dont hammer them by 20+ points and concede no tries.

I thought last season he had some great games, really ripped some teams apart early in the championship.

Pudsy33

.ak wrote: »

Orquera is a great player on his day and could cause us problems I reckon.

Yeah big fan of him although I thought Tommy Allen was pretty impressive up until this point. Looking forward to seeing more of Campagnaro.

pickarooney

Campagnaro looks about 75 in that photo.

irishbucsfan

It may be sacrilegious to say this...

But if we're really going to open up against the Italians I worry about BOD in midfield. We've had a few possessions spoiled by poor passing and decision making by him in this championship so far and we'll be putting an even greater premium on possession tomorrow. I hope, given the day that's in it, we'll see a masterclass from him.

stephen_n

Great write up and that was quick!!

I think the bookies have it right once again with Ireland +20, would hope to see the bench used earlier if we are dominating, be a perfect chance for Ireland to move the backline a little more and see how it works as i doubt we will be playing that way in Paris.

funtime93

Pudsy33 wrote: »

Yeah big fan of him although I thought Tommy Allen was pretty impressive up until this point. Looking forward to seeing more of Campagnaro.

Campagnaro is decent alright but I just don't rate Allan at all.Useless player.

.ak

irishbucsfan wrote: »

It may be sacrilegious to say this...

But if we're really going to open up against the Italians I worry about BOD in midfield. We've had a few possessions spoiled by poor passing and decision making by him in this championship so far and we'll be putting an even greater premium on possession tomorrow. I hope, given the day that's in it, we'll see a masterclass from him.

Watching the England game again and I thought for the most part his passing and decision making was spot on. The one where he skinned Burrell and then popped to the cut for DK was sheer class. It's touches like that that nobody in our team are capable of making. I wouldn't worry about it.

Besides, if we cut the Italians open, it won't be through midfield breaks.

19543261

WOOHOO, HENDERSON IN THE BACKROW. I ****ING CALLED IT.

irishbucsfan

.ak wrote: »

Watching the England game again and I thought for the most part his passing and decision making was spot on. The one where he skinned Burrell and then popped to the cut for DK was sheer class. It's touches like that that nobody in our team are capable of making. I wouldn't worry about it.

Besides, if we cut the Italians open, it won't be through midfield breaks.

It wasn't as obvious in the England game, but it stood out very clearly in the first half against both Scotland and Wales where he gave up possession cheaply on a few occasions. That distribution needs to be there consistently if we're going to retain possession for long periods, individual pieces of skill are great but not as valuable as that consistency. If we were playing a team like England then those individual moments would be much more important.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

I think this is going to be an easy win tbh. I think if Scotland at the Aviva was an indication of how we should expect Ireland to deal with teams like this in Dublin

Ireland by 25+

[Jackass]

Wow, Ruddock is a bit of a shock. Obviously he's being picked on the basis of being a back-row a lot more than covering second row, presumably in expectation of what a big physical battle that's going to be and the ability to switch Henderson.

Looking forward to this game, I think we're going to try and put a big score on them. It will also be an emotional goodbye to O'Driscoll, who there will be a presentation for after the game. Hopefully unveiling the statue of him that will be erected on the concourse of Lansdowne Road.

former legend

When drafting the OP, I was under the impression Parisse was injured. Now it turns out he's just rested. That's a very bad sign about how Italy are approaching this game.

I'd hope we can fill our boots.

.ak

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

I think this is going to be an easy win tbh. I think if Scotland at the Aviva was an indication of how we should expect Ireland to deal with teams like this in Dublin

Ireland by 25+

We might look a bit sharper too, and I wonder if the Italians will suffer from the changes at half back and missing the big P. Could be like the last game we played them in Aviva, Sexton ran riot against them...

rrpc

former legend wrote: »

When drafting the OP, I was under the impression Parisse was injured. Now it turns out he's just rested. That's a very bad sign about how Italy are approaching this game.

I'd hope we can fill our boots.

I can't believe it. A French coach playing a weakened team away. Who'd have thunk it.

bleg

The Untouchables...

sydthebeat

I think orquera is very flaky and if we can get in his face early on he has no hesitancy about dropping off further and further as the game progresses.

personally i think we need to exceeding the spread in this game and go into the last game knowing a win is the win.

id agree with ugo above and put up +25, i think we have the superior player in pretty much every position and tactically as well. i think we will actually play a lot of 'gattyball' on saturday, bash bash bash around the corners until the opportunity arises to spread wide and, unlike wales who run over a back line, we will run around and use cunning over power.

If drico clicks, which ive no reason to doubt he will, he could put opportunities on plates for our wingers and RK.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

bleg wrote: »

The Untouchables...

?

justsomebloke

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

?

I'm gathering it's in reference to the lack of unforced changes in the squad

[Jackass]

If Ireland don't win the championship, we can analyse the selections, but I'm fairly confident that we will and at the moment it's steady as she goes.

We're currently in the best position out of any of the team to win the championship and are the bookies favourites to do so also.

A big win against Italy here (c.20 point margin), our points difference will be healthy enough that Paris becomes a final, without worrying about margins.

Prawo_Jazdy

I was hoping for a few more changes, but chances are we'll win this comfortably and as long as there aren't any injuries I probably won't be complaining after, this should be the perfect opportunity for the team to play a more open game.

errlloyd

Italy resting Sergio Parisse is the sporting equivalent of Ferrari resting the car.

Larbre34

I think some people are feeling the ghost of Eddie O'Sullivan about this one.

Unlike EOS however, Schmidt and Plumtree have fully explained the internal debate on the issue. Nobody deserves to get dropped, do you do it for the sake of it at this stage? Personally Id rather keep the squad harmony and have good cohesion ahead of France. If injuries do force changes, then it will be less of an upset overall.

I too hope we run riot, foot to the throat the whole way. In 2007 we went 51-17 ahead at one point but we let them in last minute and it wasnt enough to outscore France as it turned out.

bleg

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

?

No changes. Not a bad thing in itself. Just strange when the coach says he's going to build a squad but then doesn't follow through.

Dazzler0911

Is Zanni injured for them or being rested like Parisse too?

Also, why the heck are they resting Parisse?

19543261

I think fans are always guilty of overvaluing novelty. I dont see any reason why there'd ought to be more changes in this squad.

Our goal is still to defeat Italy by as many points as possible, as it was with the games before this one; why would that change.

CatFromHue

bleg wrote: »

No changes. Not a bad thing in itself. Just strange when the coach says he's going to build a squad but then doesn't follow through.

When did he say he was going to build a squad?

Larbre34

errlloyd wrote: »

Italy resting Sergio Parisse is the sporting equivalent of Ferrari resting the car.

he must have a knock though right? What exactly are they expecting to get out of the England game on the last day?

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

bleg wrote: »

No changes. Not a bad thing in itself. Just strange when the coach says he's going to build a squad but then doesn't follow through.

He has given experience to plenty of players and will do again this weekend by having Ruddock on the bench

.ak

Dazzler0911 wrote: »

Is Zanni injured for them or being rested like Parisse too?

Also, why the heck are they resting Parisse?

I believe it's what the Italians call.... Seppeku.

Grimebox

I hope Hendo goes on some barrelling runs

.ak

19543261 wrote: »

I think fans are always guilty of overvaluing novelty. I dont see any reason why there'd ought to be more changes in this squad.

Our goal is still to defeat Italy by as many points as possible, as it was with the games before this one; why would that change.

This is it. It's easy for us to sit at our laptops and say 'Oh I'd love to see Zebo get a run', or 'Ruddock should be starting, it's only the Italians'. But Schmidt has a very real job that means picking a team and keeping momentum. Why should anybody be dropped or rotated? We're not talking about a 25 game season here.

I think we, as fans, have a gum on us to see the most exciting up and coming players, especially in a low risk situation like Italy at home, but the truth of it is there is no low risk games anymore. Joe stressed how much he thought of the Italians and that says it all really. We should be beating them, but we shouldn't be so complacent we feel we can throw in players who have barely been in the squad or drop players who don't deserve to be dropped.

Molester Stallone

CatFromHue wrote: »

When did he say he was going to build a squad?

So he's not going to build a squad?

Hagz

Molester Stallone wrote: »

So he's not going to build a squad?

So coaches shouldn't build squads?

Molester Stallone

Hagz wrote: »

So coaches shouldn't build squads?

They should

CatFromHue

Molester Stallone wrote: »

So he's not going to build a squad?

I dunno.

I'd much prefer to win the 6N to be honest.

Hagz

Molester Stallone wrote: »

They should

So coaches should build squads during the 6 nations?

So that they can be better placed to win the Summer and Autumn friendlies?

connemara man

A good team, the summer tour and AI's are a better time to test new players than the business end of the 6 nations especially when we are in a good position to win the whole thing

.ak

He did say he'd like to build a squad of 30-34 international quality players over the course of a season, IIRC. He's pretty close to that I think. Getting certain players onto the bench and getting bits of meaningful game time.

It's pretty good to see the likes of TOD, Murphy, Hendo and Ruddock getting more caps. By the end of the tournament we might be happy to see these guys take their experience into the summer tour, AIs and who knows next year.

It's subtle but it's working.

errlloyd

CatFromHue wrote: »

I dunno.

I'd much prefer to win the 6N to be honest.

This. I would suggest right now the team has a crippling lack of confidence which is an issue that needs to be addressed before anything else.

Podge_irl

When it came to big games in the HEC - especially that run of 5 games in the Amlin and Rabo at the end of last year - Schmidt rotated his team far less than people seem to remember. And several of the players rotated have stand out alternatives in the Irish team who aren't going to be rested (Murray, POC).

CatFromHue

Grimebox wrote: »

I hope Hendo goes on some barrelling runs

he's like a mixture of Bruce Lee and Godzilla. Bruce Lee in that he doesn't look like much but Godzilla when he starts swatting people out of the way!

.ak

errlloyd wrote: »

This. I would suggest right now the team has a crippling lack of confidence which is an issue that needs to be addressed before anything else.

Woah - how did you get to that conclussion? Was it something to do with the fact we got the top of the table too easily? The lads have no confidence now because of it. :pac:

.ak

CatFromHue wrote: »

he's like a mixture of Bruce Lee and Godzilla. Bruce Lee in that he doesn't look like much but Godzilla when he starts swatting people out of the way!

Don't forget the plasma breath.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

People seem to be of the opinion that Schmidt was some sort of ridiculously experimental selector. This in has no basis in reality at all

.ak

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

People seem to be of the opinion that Schmidt was some sort of ridiculously experimental selector. This in has no basis in reality at all

Yeah, although for Leinster he wasn't afraid to make big calls and rotate key players (Boss and Reddan for example, or Healy and HvDM). But generally for big games the team was set in stone, and he has said that the 6n is basically 5 finals in a row.

errlloyd

.ak wrote: »

Woah - how did you get to that conclussion? Was it something to do with the fact we got the top of the table too easily? The lads have no confidence now because of it. :pac:

Sorry that was a bit of a sweeping statement. I mean like long term confidence. I think they've been tagged as underperformed or whatever, which is a problem that needs to be addressed (by winning).

Molester Stallone

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

People seem to be of the opinion that Schmidt was some sort of ridiculously experimental selector. This in has no basis in reality at all

No one thinks that. But in a game where you can rest certain players, and bring in others to show their worth, Joe chose not to
My worry is that the physicality of the Italians leads to us shipping 1 or 2 injuries during the game & we then have to make these changes in the last game

sydthebeat

errlloyd wrote: »

This. I would suggest right now the team has a crippling lack of confidence which is an issue that needs to be addressed before anything else.

i think people view that english match as somehow a game we failed miserably in.....

it was a cracker of a game with electric intensity from the start to the finish.
England won because their discipline was exemplary.
The had the power and tactics to negate some of our strengths .... but that being said there was the narrowest of margins between us and we could have won it.

the team will be hurting.. but they certainly will not be suffering a 'crippling lack of confidence' crisis.
I actually think they are extremely confident in their abilities and their plays.