England V Wales, who wins?

stpaddy99

This seems like the game of the weekend to me and could affect the outcome of the championship

From an Irish perspective I want Wales to win, in fact from any perspective I want them to win

IF england give them a shoe-ing it pressurises us more on points too

so how do we see this game going?

I notice tuilagi and jon davies are back fit? Will these 2 start?

If they do , it could be an explosive midfield battle

elsewhere. Ive been impressed with eng;land so far. steady and consistent. launchbury has been terrific, lawes too. but will misisng billy vunipola hurt england? how good is ben morgan?

wales have improved since we hammered them. they seem to start the championship slow and steadily improve. they seem to have a side with negates england but struggles with our aerial game and lineout superiority. not sure if alun wyn jones is fit. their scrum looks stronger now and may pressure englands imo

breakdown id edge it to the welsh as warburton and lydiate looked way fitter last time. i really think french rugby does no good for player fitness
gatland hammers them

I cant call this one.....england are playing better, but wales have the experience and the wins and lions. england have the twickenham factor which is a big factor. hapenny has a slight edge on goal kicks. england are playing a more expansive game, but the welsh backs look better on paper.

so who wins?

aimee1

stpaddy99 wrote: »

This seems like the game of the weekend to me and could affect the outcome of the championship

From an Irish perspective I want Wales to win, in fact from any perspective I want them to win

IF england give them a shoe-ing it pressurises us more on points too

so how do we see this game going?

I notice tuilagi and jon davies are back fit? Will these 2 start?

If they do , it could be an explosive midfield battle

elsewhere. Ive been impressed with eng;land so far. steady and consistent. launchbury has been terrific, lawes too. but will misisng billy vunipola hurt england? how good is ben morgan?

wales have improved since we hammered them. they seem to start the championship slow and steadily improve. they seem to have a side with negates england but struggles with our aerial game and lineout superiority. not sure if alun wyn jones is fit. their scrum looks stronger now and may pressure englands imo

breakdown id edge it to the welsh as warburton and lydiate looked way fitter last time. i really think french rugby does no good for player fitness
gatland hammers them

I cant call this one.....england are playing better, but wales have the experience and the wins and lions. england have the twickenham factor which is a big factor. hapenny has a slight edge on goal kicks. england are playing a more expansive game, but the welsh backs look better on paper.

so who wins?

I think england will grind this one out, just.

molloyjh

A Welsh win would be ideal given their points difference is so poor. They'd find it almost impossible to make up the difference with us should we win our remaining 2. But I reckon England will win it by 4 or 5.

LeeroyJones

From an Ireland perspective I'm shouting for England actually. Sure enough they could put some pressure on us but we're in a strong 'Points Diff' position. A sizeable enough victory for us at home -v- Italy and no matter what happens elsewhere I think a basic black and white win in Paris would see us over the line.

An England win -v- Wales puts significant pressure on France, however. They would definately go for it against us but so long as we kept them at bay for the opening 20-30mins they could well get frustrated and hopefully make chances for ourselves.

Scenario 1:
England beat Wales by 5
England Hammer Italy by 40
England finish on 8points and +65 Points Diff
This would mean we would need to beat Italy by 24 at home to put ourselves in a position of not needing to worry about Points Difference -v- France
It would, however, mean that France would need to hammer us by 20-30 assuming that they beat Scotland by 30-40. A tall order which may prove frustrating for France

Scenario 2:
Wales beat England by 5
Wales hammer Scotland by 40
Wales finish on 8points and +51
This means effectively the same on the face of it for us as that wouldn't be a problem for us so long as we beat Italy by a respectable margin
However the hypothetical +51 is a lot more attainable for France than the hypothetical +65 in scenario 1

errlloyd

So in some ways we want England to build up enough points difference to kill France but not pressurise us?

LeeroyJones

errlloyd wrote: »

So in some ways we want England to build up enough points difference to kill France but not pressurise us?

Exactamundo!

We're in a strong position in terms of points difference. It's in our hands, we're at home to Italy. We speak as though England will put a cricket score in Rome against Italy but we'll struggle to Italy at home.

Secondly, if France have a realistic shout of winning the title by beating us by 10 or so points I would really really worry.
France are that kind of side, World Cup 2011 they were crap, lose to Tonga, get a second bite at it and really should have beaten NZ in the final.
Wales could make it achievable for France

stpaddy99

I still say we better off with a welsh win. that finishes off england. if england win their points can challenge ours and they could steal the title in rome

LeeroyJones

stpaddy99 wrote: »

I still say we better off with a welsh win. that finishes off england. if england win their points can challenge ours and they could steal the title in rome

But it's the French challenge we want to finish off.

If England win, France need points, France need tries against us. That in turn means they could turn down kickable penalties in an effort to score early tries which could frustrate them and make life easier for us. We could then hold it close in the opening 40 meaning meaning dejected French side would need something along the lines of 30-40 unanswered points in 40mins. If any side could throw in the towel at that stage it's the French.

If Wales win, France are in with a fighting chance and will undoubtedly be a different animal against us.

Don't forget ourselves and England are facing the same challenge in Italy except we have them at home, on top of our 21 point head start.
The ball is in our court and it's up to us to put the foot on the accelerator

BBDBB

3 all draw

corny

LeeroyJones wrote: »

But it's the French challenge we want to finish off.

If England win, France need points, France need tries against us. That in turn means they could turn down kickable penalties in an effort to score early tries which could frustrate them and make life easier for us. We could then hold it close in the opening 40 meaning meaning dejected French side would need something along the lines of 30-40 unanswered points in 40mins. If any side could throw in the towel at that stage it's the French.

If Wales win, France are in with a fighting chance and will undoubtedly be a different animal against us.

Don't forget ourselves and England are facing the same challenge in Italy except we have them at home, on top of our 21 point head start.
The ball is in our court and it's up to us to put the foot on the accelerator

There's one flaw in your logic or rather one key variable you are taking for granted....Scotland are going to beat France this weekend.

LeeroyJones

corny wrote: »

There's one flaw in your logic or rather one key variable you are taking for granted....Scotland are going to beat France this weekend.

Im confused. you're saying that I'm working off the assumption that Scotland are going to beat France?
I'm assuming France will beat Scotland

If Scotland do turnover France then that's France out of the equation which should probably make life easier on us.

Kayless

LeeroyJones wrote: »

Im confused. you're saying that I'm working off the assumption that Scotland are going to beat France?
I'm assuming France will beat Scotland

If Scotland do turnover France then that's France out of the equation which should probably make life easier on us.

Yeah so realistically we want Scotland and Wales to win this weekend, that would actually be the best case scenario for us and it is plausible a lot less likely is Italy beating us in Dublin so if we get the above result the PD argument is out the window we just need to beat France, still a very tall order no matter how bad people think they are at the moment, hopefully Sexton and ROG times in France can help Ireland in that regard because no matter how you look at it, we have to beat France.

LeeroyJones

As poor as France have been this year I don't think Scotland will get a result this weekend. It would be great mind you.

Going by likelyish case scenarios I'd be hoping for:
England by a point
Ireland by 30
France by 5

Thus meaning all on 6points
Ireland +72
England +22
France +6

Then
England bt Italy by 40 (Finish the championship on +62)

Meaning we're just looking for any sort of win to be crowned champions whereas France would need a 57 point win against us to slip past England.

stpaddy99

england have a major weakness at the breakdown mind, they are always outnumbered...theyre also only sending in 2 players , often backs to clear the rucks, wales will seriously target that with their back row.

Swiwi.

Rugby will be the winner on the day...

...but enough PC bullsh'it, England will win and relatively comfortably.

ScissorPaperRock

stpaddy99 wrote: »

england have a major weakness at the breakdown mind, they are always outnumbered...theyre also only sending in 2 players , often backs to clear the rucks, wales will seriously target that with their back row.

Do they? I thought they counter rucked very effectively against us, and we're probably one of the best breakdown-focused teams around.

sydthebeat

ScissorPaperRock wrote: »

Do they? I thought they counter rucked very effectively against us, and we're probably one of the best breakdown-focused teams around.

Agreed, wood and robshaw are absolute dogs at the breakdown.
I'd go as far as to say that England probably have the best balanced back row in the championship.

They have absolutely no problem at the breakdown.

They leave lazy bodies all over the place to slow down opposition ball. And on their own ball their leeches secure ball instantly in rucks.

They are extremely well drilled in this aspect of the game.

The proof of the pudding of this was the was they were able to effectively negate pom

Podge_irl

Have great difficulty seeing anything but a fairly solid England win. They're simply a better team.

Bridge93

I would think in week 5 Wales are more likely to hammer Scotland in Cardiff than England are to hammer Italy in Rome. I can't see England winning by more than 15 out there whereas god knows what Wales could put up at home in a final game (look at last year.)
I'd think a marginal Engkand win would suit us best.

Grimebox

I wouldn't write off the Welsh. They've had a rocky start but its the same time that won the last two championships

Podge_irl

Grimebox wrote: »

I wouldn't write off the Welsh. They've had a rocky start but its the same time that won the last two championships

True, but the France game aside they have been poor for a year now. And I'm loathe to read too much into the France game as France are woeful at the moment and were utterly disinterested.

[Jackass]

I definitely think Wales can win. It's tough to call, but Wales pretty much demolished France, a team England failed to put away, and they demolished England last season, so they're definitely in with a good chance.

England aren't a great side, they deserved their win against us, but they really just wrestled the game away from us, hugely physical, bullying side, the way the English love to be, but Wales have that extra spark about them, Wales at their best are better than England at their best, so I think it all comes down to how Wales will approach the game.

An advantage they also have is that Ireland and Wales are quite similar teams in terms of how they like to play, and they will look at how England spoiled Ireland and really have a blue print of exactly what England will look to do against them.

I think we lost to England because of some uncharacteristic individual mistakes, we just happened to make those couple of crucial mistakes that they didn't make. Like I said, England aren't a great team, but they're extremely difficult to play against and they'll punish mistakes, and we just made too many.

Midnight64

[Jackass] wrote: »

crucial mistakes that they didn't make.

On the contrary, England made some woeful mistakes and Ireland made few, if none.

That aside, as an Englishman (in-exile) I hope England will win but it will be tight and not as good a match as the Irish game (I'm still short of breath).

However, it is more than likely that Wales have been putting themselves through the grinder over the two weeks and will come out very strong and make some really early scores and will task the young English heads to rally and make a comeback. What will follow, as they say, can not be written!!

My money is, happily, on Ireland for the tournament, which will be a very fitting retirement present for BOD.

Tox56

Midnight64 wrote: »

On the contrary, England made some woeful mistakes and Ireland made few, if none.

?! It was a game littered with Irish inaccuracies. There's a Murray Kinsella article on it. Not saying England didn't make mistakes either (they did) but the most infuriating part of Ireland's performance were small mistakes that added up in the end.

King_of_Kingz

Wales will be massively up for this one, nothing rises the blood of the Welsh like giving England a beating especially being in the situation they find themselves in at the moment.

I just feel Wales have one massive performance in them in this championship so I will go for them by a score.

Webbs

J Davies and AWJ back for Wales


Wales: Leigh Halfpenny (Blues); Alex Cuthbert (Blues), Jonathan Davies (Scarlets), Jamie Roberts (Racing Metro), George North (Northampton); Rhys Priestland (Scarlets), Rhys Webb (Ospreys); Gethin Jenkins (Blues), Richard Hibbard (Ospreys), Adam Jones (Ospreys), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys), Luke Charteris (Perpignan), Dan Lydiate (Racing Metro), Sam Warburton (Blues, capt), Taulupe Faletau (Dragons).

Replacements: Ken Owens (Scarlets), Paul James (Bath Rugby), Rhodri Jones (Scarlets), Jake Ball (Scarlets), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Mike Phillips (Racing Metro), Dan Biggar (Ospreys), Liam Williams (Scarlets).

rrpc

[Jackass] wrote: »

I definitely think Wales can win. It's tough to call, but Wales pretty much demolished France, a team England failed to put away, and they demolished England last season, so they're definitely in with a good chance.

England aren't a great side, they deserved their win against us, but they really just wrestled the game away from us, hugely physical, bullying side, the way the English love to be, but Wales have that extra spark about them, Wales at their best are better than England at their best, so I think it all comes down to how Wales will approach the game.

An advantage they also have is that Ireland and Wales are quite similar teams in terms of how they like to play, and they will look at how England spoiled Ireland and really have a blue print of exactly what England will look to do against them.

To be fair to England it wasn't just bullying. They really targeted the breakdown and got a lot of turnovers and slowed a lot of our ball, very skilfully. It'll be a fascinating game to watch. England are very disciplined and patient, but they're also a side that Warrenball could well work against.

Jon Davies back is going to be a big plus for Wales; Jamie Roberts is still capable of punching holes and Davies of exploiting them. Nowell and May will have their hands full minding North and Cuthbert as well. In the set piece, I'm really not sure which side shades it in the scrum, but I'd suspect Wales. The lineout favours England.

So I still can't call it

stephen_n

I think with Charteris out the welsh lineout will be extremely vulnerable, I'd expect a lot of kicking in behind from the English, can't see this being anything other than a +10-15 win for the English.