Ukraine.

Reggie.

If Russia did decide to roll into Ukraine would NATO get involved?
If they did what would be the chances of victory or stalemate? Thoughts?

Borderfox

I think Nato would just do a lot of hard talking and let the Russian's sort it out, no way would they risk going outside of diplomacy.

Stinicker

Pity George W. Bush was not still in office he'd have mushroom clouds all the way to Siberia by now and this is what the Russians deserve for invading Ukraine.

Right now we have a toothless UN and Nato and the situation resembles the League of Nations and the appeasement of Hitler when he invaded the Sudetendland in 1939. The Russian Army could make a drive westwards and reach the Rhine in weeks.

Nato should be launching airstrikes against strategic targets in Western Russia right now but they will do nothing because they are cowards. They will be forced to act when it is too late the Continent burns all over again very soon.

wonski

Reggie. wrote: »

If Russia did decide to roll into Ukraine would NATO get involved?
If they did what would be the chances of victory or stalemate? Thoughts?

They ( Russia ) already decided.
This is sad news not only for Ukraine, but for all post-soviet countries.
They might feel they are independent, but - as we can see now - Russia still feels it is their territory and they can go in there as soon as they want.

If NATO,and UN won't stop them from going in I give up on the whole "united europe" and "peace in the world" concept.

Amirani

wonski wrote: »

If NATO,and UN won't stop them from going in I give up on the whole "united europe" and "peace in the world" concept.

Ukraine is neither EU nor NATO and has until recently been very pro-Russian. You can be sure things would be very different if this was happening in the Baltic states.

wonski

NiallSparky wrote: »

Ukraine is neither EU nor NATO and has until recently been very pro-Russian. You can be sure things would be very different if this was happening in the Baltic states.

Well, I do remember the so called orange revolution. Nothing has changed really since then tbh. For those countries it isn't so easy to get out of the russian influence.
The current situation started when Ukrainian government decided not to join EU under partnership agreement. This sums up their friendship with Russian leaders - the people want to be in Europe while their well paid leaders prefer to keep their connections with bigger brother.

My idea is that EU and NATO do need to stand up for smaller countries that only weeks ago wanted to do a partnership with. They can't just ignore them because they are not a members of them.
Ukraine - at the end of the day - should have been an independent country by now.

Amirani

wonski wrote: »

My idea is that EU and NATO do need to stand up for smaller countries that only weeks ago wanted to do a partnership with. They can't just ignore them because they are not a members of them.
Ukraine - at the end of the day - should have been an independent country by now.

I agree completely, but looking at it if you're Hollande, Merkel or Cameron, you're not going to want to run the risk of starting a fight over Ukraine unless you're fairly sure you're going to win. Risk avoidance will always be top of their agenda. The scenario changes though if it's an EU or NATO ally being attacked.

wonski

NiallSparky wrote: »

I agree completely, but looking at it if you're Hollande, Merkel or Cameron, you're not going to want to run the risk of starting a fight over Ukraine unless you're fairly sure you're going to win. Risk avoidance will always be top of their agenda. The scenario changes though if it's an EU or NATO ally being attacked.

I have to agree with you, too - unfortunately.
All the biggest players in the Europe called Russia to use a peaceful resolutions. They are not happy, but judging by the history they will stay quiet regardless of the actions taken by the Russians.

2 ships already arrived in the Ukraine, more sad news to come.
The Ukraine owes them a money for a gas, which gives them an additional advantage. They (Russia) already demanded the money to be paid and removed the discount thaey applied before.

This is not going to end well.

Borderfox

Nato and America will only go in if they have air superiority hence ploughing into Libya but not Syria, anyway they can cause more destabilisation in financial circles

XsApollo

I can't see Russia going further than Crimea.
It will be quiet down there until that referendum vote at the end of March, then it might kick off if it goes the Russians way.
Crimea is lost for Ukraine don't think the Russians are gonna let it go.

As for outside military intervention it won't happen.

eyescreamcone

Imagine the Crimea ever being the centre of a conflict between the major powers?

I think we should form a brigade.
A light one mind you, to take on the Russians in the Crimea.

If anything ever kicks off though we'll certainly need a few Florence Nightingales to clean up the mess.

wonski

XsApollo wrote: »

Crimea is lost for Ukraine don't think the Russians are gonna let it go.

How can it be lost?

You can compare it to the British Army entering Donegal and claiming it back.

This is Europe - and I do hope the leaders will put a pressure on Russia to back off and let it go.

pilatus

Borderfox wrote: »

Nato and America will only go in if they have air superiority hence ploughing into Libya but not Syria, anyway they can cause more destabilisation in financial circles

Nato could achieve air superiority if they were to commit the right tools to do the job. People over estimate Russian military strength. Their air force is no match for Nato's should it go that way. Their air force is equipped with mainly 80's era Su24 bomber's, Su25 close support jets (think A10's), Su27 Flanker's and MiG29 Fulcrum's with only handfuls of each being upgraded in the last few year's. There are some newly built Su 34 and Su35's (Flankers with latest electronic tech) but not enough and they have been distributed to regiments in the Moscow air defence division and training/ evaluation regiments in Lipestk. They also still ground control intercept, ie they are vectored towards targets under very strict pre arranged manoeuvres where the pilot has little actual control and fires when told to. You guys can Google the method. Compare this to a Nato force of F22 Raptors , F15 Eagles, F18 hornets F16 falcons , Dassault Rafales, Eurofighter Typhoons and Saab Gripens all networked with a very extensive fleet of Awacs/ Elint/ Aerial jammers, Russias Awacs fleet is pretty pathetic by comparison. The battle would be quite terrifying though interesting for the aviation analysts and I suspect would not last too long. This is assuming Nato plays all its card's. Though I hope it doesn't come to that as it would leave a long bitter taste in everyone's mouths, especially in the Crimea region , never mind the damage it would do to the world economy. If Russia does invade which I doubt it will, I dont believe that the current Western leadership has the stones to stand up to Putin and fight.

riffmongous

Anyone familiar with the strength of the Ukrainian armed forces and can offer an opinion on how they would fare if it did break out into a war? Also I wonder to what extent the ukrainian forces would remain loyal to the Kiev government?

Borderfox

I would be talking about anti air weaponry like the Sam 3 or 400.

pilatus

The Ukrainian land forces are in general better trained than your average Russian soldier would be. They regularly participate in foreign missions with the UN. Earlier tonight I was looking at pictures of Ukrainian troops training with USMC. Their army at present is around 75 to 80,000 in strength and on paper has 1 million reserves.

The mood is highly stirred at the moment and with the armed forces being fully mobilised I think its safe to assume that most young Ukrainian reserves will be only too willing to fulfill their patriotic duty and answer the call to arms. Their army has a large inventory of tanks T72s and T90s and a large fleet of UMP apcs, in saying that the country is nearly bankrupt and with the defense budget having dwindled over the last few year's it's hard to say how many are operational at the moment.

Their artillery and anti air artillery is nearly the same as the Russians excluding the most recent s300/400 sam's, though they have the earliest version of the s300, not to be looked down at for sure. The navy has 11 front line ships,1 submarine and a whole litter of smaller gunboats. The frontline ships are a few soviet era frigates, landing ships and a few support / tanker ships. The entire Ukrainian military is nearly a mirror copy of Russia's,excluding the very newest of the Russian hardware.

The make up of the army itself is mainly ethnically Russian, but the same can be said of the Ukrainian nation as a whole but yet they have decided to stand up for themselves as their army will do also. In short the Ukrainian military will be no push over given the recent events and the huge wave of emotion running through the country will be enough to drive their determination to fight hard and finally stand up to the Russians.

Regarding the s300/400 threat, it will be no walk in the park, that's for sure. Israel , Turkey and the United States have been monitoring the recent s300 deliveries to Syria and their elint platforms have been busy monitoring the missile battery electronic and radar emissions that are emitted. Greece also operates the s300 and you can be sure NATO and the US have had a sneak peek at them too. They will know what signals to emit to confuse and jam their radar guidance units. With the missiles range they would be able to operate from Russian territory and shoot down Allied planes from a safe distance so cruise missile strikes would be the best option here. It would be messy and there would be losses but it could be done.

Xios

pilatus wrote: »

The Ukrainian land forces are in general better trained than your average Russian soldier would be. They regularly participate in foreign missions with the UN. Earlier tonight I was looking at pictures of Ukrainian troops training with USMC. Their army at present is around 75 to 80,000 in strength and on paper has 1 million reserves. The mood is highly stirred at the moment and with the armed forces being fully mobilised I think its safe to assume that most young Ukrainian reserves will be only too willing to fulfill their patriotic duty and answer the call to arms. Their army has a large inventory of tanks T72s and T90s and a large fleet of UMP apcs, in saying that the country is nearly bankrupt and with the defense budget having dwindled over the last few year's it's hard to say how many are operational at the moment. Their artillery and anti air artillery is nearly the same as the Russians excluding the most recent s300/400 sam's, though they have the earliest version of the s300, not to be looked down at for sure. The navy has 11 front line ships,1 submarine and a whole litter of smaller gunboats. The frontline ships are a few soviet era frigates, landing ships and a few support / tanker ships. The entire Ukrainian military is nearly a mirror copy of Russia's,excluding the very newest of the Russian hardware. The make up of the army itself is mainly ethnically Russian, but the same can be said of the Ukrainian nation as a whole but yet they have decided to stand up for themselves as their army will do also. In short the Ukrainian military will be no push over given the recent events and the huge wave of emotion running through the country will be enough to drive their determination to fight hard and finally stand up to the Russians.

Regarding the s300/400 threat, it will be no walk in the park, that's for sure. Israel , Turkey and the United States have been monitoring the recent s300 deliveries to Syria and their elint platforms have been busy monitoring the missile battery electronic and radar emissions that are emitted. Greece also operates the s300 and you can be sure NATO and the US have had a sneak peek at them too. They will know what signals to emit to confuse and jam their radar guidance units. With the missiles range they would be able to operate from Russian territory and shoot down Allied planes from a safe distance so cruise missile strikes would be the best option here. It would be messy and there would be losses but it could be done.

Jesus christ, learn what a paragraph is.

pilatus

Remedied for you Xios. Im sorry I made you feel you had to swear on a public forum.

war29

Russia have no invaded Ukraine they are protecting there military base. Let Russian and Ukraine and western countries sort it out without firing a bullet.
If a war started it would not be won or lost by soldiers & tanks.
Lets hope everyone keeps their fingers off the red button.

spank_inferno

war29 wrote: »

Russia have no invaded Ukraine they are protecting there military base. Let Russian and Ukraine and western countries sort it out without firing a bullet.
If a war started it would not be won or lost by soldiers & tanks.
Lets hope everyone keeps their fingers off the red button.

15,000 Russians milutqry personnel have entered Ukraine territory in the last 2 days to bolster what is already in Crimea.

If that isn't "No invaded Ukraine" then I don't know what is.

spank_inferno

pilatus wrote: »

The make up of the army itself is mainly ethnically Russian,

Is that not a bit odd?

3/4 of the nation is ethnic Ukrainian.

Could it lead to a divided loyalty amongst Ukrainian armed forces?

Manach

The Russians will not back down from this. From a historical perspective, in WWII the Soviets took numerous severe bleedings by the Nazi (Sevastopol etc) and still came back and retake the Ukraine. This is an area the Russian's have regarded as integral to their security since the time of Peter the Great.
Politically they will calculate that the West will defend members of the EU/Nato but defending the Ukraine is beyond their political and military will.

Ironically, the one side intervention to re-draw the borders of a Slavic
country seems to have been given a precedent during Nato's Kosovo Campaign.

pilatus

spank_inferno wrote: »

Is that not a bit odd?

3/4 of the nation is ethnic Ukrainian.

Could it lead to a divided loyalty amongst Ukrainian armed forces?

No not really, just a continuation from soviet times. Being ethnically Russian doesn't mean they are exactly Russian. Their ancestors and forefathers were, they have since mixed with Ukrainians and the lines have been blurred and a new generation of Ukrainians has been born.

There may be some in the army that would have rather preferred the old government to stay in power but the majority of the officer corps are trained now using Western train of thought while still remembering and respecting the old ways.

I doubt there would be mass defections to join Russian forces and turn on their own people, at the same time I wouldn't be surprised if there was pockets here and there that may jump ship. You are most likely to see it in the Crimea itself where ties between the 2 armies would have been close until recently.

pilatus

This is heating up quick. BBC reporters have witnessed Russian soldiers digging trenches on the Crimean border with Ukraine, while Russian troops have surrounded a Ukrainian army base in Perevalnoe. In response the Ukrainian army have barred the gates and driven armored personal carriers right up to the gates also and Troops in full combat gear are standing along side them. This is as recent 12.59 PM . This is a very fluid situation. This time tomorrow we could be reading reports of the first battles. Scary times, my prayers are with those brave men.

Stovepipe

Hi all,
NATO need not fire a shot. It can block the Bosphorus and bottle up the Black Sea Fleet.....Ukraine, politically, is stymied by needing gas from Russia so unless it changes gas suppliers any time soon, Russia has it by the balls. There might be a few small scale fights but you could credibly see the Crimean Peninsula going back into Russia, as well as parts of Eastern Ukraine.This also has implications for seagoing access for Ukraine.

regards
Stovepipe

riffmongous

The BBC is reporting that the newly appointed head of the Ukrainian Navy has defected to the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, how much of the navy will go with him I wonder?

Reggie.

riffmongous wrote: »

The BBC is reporting that the newly appointed head of the Ukrainian Navy has defected to the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, how much of the navy will go with him I wonder?

Seen that so are we looking at a breakaway state like kosovo

airsofter1234

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26410431

The newly appointed head of Ukraine's navy has sworn allegiance to the Crimea region, in the presence of its unrecognised pro-Russian leader.

Rear Admiral Denys Berezovsky was only made head of the navy on Saturday, as the government in Kiev reacted to the threat of Russian invasion.

Russia's troops have been consolidating their hold on Crimea, which is home to its Black Sea Fleet.

Nato's chief has asked Russia to withdraw its forces to its bases.

"We call on Russia to de-escalate tensions... to withdraw its forces to its bases and to refrain from any interference elsewhere in Ukraine," Anders Fogh Rasmussen said, speaking in Brussels.

Ukraine was a "valued partner" for Nato and should be allowed to determine its own future, he said.
US Secretary of State John Kerry warned Moscow might be ejected from the G8 for its actions but his German counterpart, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, argued for Moscow's continuing membership.

"The format of the G8 is actually the only one in which we in the West can speak directly with Russia," he told the public broadcaster ARD.

US President Barack Obama called Russian troop deployments a "violation of Ukrainian sovereignty".
'Brink of disaster'

Ukraine has ordered a full military mobilisation in response to Russia's build-up of its forces on the Crimean peninsula. Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has warned the country is "on the brink of disaster".

In Crimea, Ukrainian soldiers faced off with Russian soldiers surrounding their bases on Sunday while the Russian army was said to be digging trenches on the border with mainland Ukraine.

The UK has joined the US, France and Canada in suspending preparations for a summit of the G8 in Russia in June. Nato, of which Ukraine is not a member, is conducting emergency talks.

Admiral Berezovsky appeared in Sevastopol before cameras alongside Sergiy Aksyonov, the pro-Russian politician elected by Crimea's regional parliament as local prime minister.

Mr Aksyonov announced he had given orders to Ukrainian naval forces on the peninsula to disregard any orders from the "self-proclaimed" authorities in Kiev.

Sunday, he said, would go down in history as the birthday of the "navy of the autonomous republic of Crimea".

The admiral then pledged to "strictly obey the orders of the supreme commander of the autonomous republic of Crimea" and "defend the lives and freedom" of Crimea's people.

Admiral Berezovsky was later sacked by interim Ukrainian Defence Minister Ihor Tenyukh and a treason case launched against him.

Ukraine's Ukrainska Pravda newspaper reports that the admiral was speaking before the "numerous cameras of predominantly Russian TV channels".

Earlier, Ukrainian naval officers found their headquarters in Sevastopol occupied by Russian troops and were unable to go to work.

Separately, Ukraine withdrew coast guard vessels from two ports in Crimea and moved them to other bases in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov on Sunday.

Several Ukrainian army bases were surrounded by Russian troops on Sunday but there were no reports of clashes despite the refusal of Ukrainian soldiers to open their gates.

http://rt.com/news/ukraine-military-russia-resign-437/

Ukrainian armed forces dispatched to Crimea have switched to the side of local authorities and are expected to take military oath soon, Russian news agencies report.

Facts you need to know about Crimea and why it is in turmoil

“Today the majority of the Ukrainian armed forces deployed in Crimea passed to the side of the authorities of the Crimean autonomous region. The transition was absolutely peaceful, without a single shot fired either by the military or by the forces of self-defense,” an unnamed source told RIA Novosti news agency.

The source added that some of the servicemen also ran away, while some submitted letters of resignation.

The local military have not been paid for many months, the source also told RIA Novosti.

Newly appointed Navy Chief rear admiral Denis Berezovsky has sworn allegiance to the people of Crimea, the news agency reported.

“I, Berezovsky Denis, swear allegiance to the Crimean people and pledge to protect it, as required by the [army] regulations,” he said.

Earlier, Ukrainian troops in Crimea were said to be resigning on a massive scale. Living quarters, weapons and ammunition have all been left under the protection of the so-called ‘self-defense forces.’

Letters of resignation have been coming in since early morning, as the self-defense forces continue to preserve order on the streets of Simferopol, RIA Novosti said citing own reporters on the ground.

Since Thursday, the city’s Supreme Council and a number of other buildings have been occupied and guarded by the self-defense forces run by the local population.

Crimea’s deputy prime minister, Rustam Temirgaliev, announced that the Ukrainian armed forces have all but surrendered their military capabilities and that no active units remain in the Crimea.

"The entire Ukrainian armed forces stationed on the Crimean territory have been blocked," Interfax reported him as saying. "The self-defense forces have taken control of the landing strips of all the Crimean airports and airfields."

The deputy PM said that that the region’s security services and emergency services now report to the local government.

Crimeans began protesting after the new self-imposed government in Kiev introduced a law abolishing the use of other languages for official documents in Ukraine. More than half the Crimean population are Russian and use only this language for their communication. The residents have announced they are going to hold a referendum on March 30 to determine the fate of the Ukrainian autonomous region.

The new interim government in Ukraine doesn't seem to have control over the armed forces. It would be interesting to know what percentage of the military are of Russian ethnic origin. I don't think the west would get involved in a fight against Russia because it wont even get more involved in Syria than covertly supplying light arms to al-Qaeda inspired groups in Syria.

The Crimea was never Ukrainian until 1954 when it was transferred from Russia to Ukraine and the mainly Russian population never wanted to be part of this new independent Ukraine. While the Russians may be going over the top, they are only looking out for the interests of the Russian population who have already faced discrimination by the new administration, who removed the Russian as an official language of Ukraine even though 30% of the population of Ukraine use it as their native language. Sorry for going slightly off topic but it is relevant to know Russian reasons for conflict.

DipStick McSwindler

This post has been deleted.

spank_inferno

So, with that level of desertion/defection its fair to say that the Ukrainian military is all but collapsed.

I heard that as well as the Admiral defecting, the Ukrainian naval HQ is also under Russian Control.

Russia's endgame is unknown.
But what we can say, the Ukrainian state is powerless to intervene.

Xios

Stolen from Reddit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQqBYq75LjY

Russian special forces entered Ukrainian military facility (base of 191st Ukrainian navy training unit) and seized weapons. However, they were unable to transport captured weapons, as Ukrainian naval forces, using an armored vehicle BTR-80, blocked the road to exit and stopped Russian trucks.

Ukrainian naval forces lined up in a live chain around the armored vehicle and thus Russian were unable to move it. Despite the fact that the Russians twice fired automatic weapons into the air, Ukrainian troops have stayed in and did not give in, even though they have been threatened to use force. Finally Russian special forces withdrew from the territory of the military unit, and trucks with weapons were directed to the 174-th Ukrainian naval forces storage base

Video: Presumably Russian soldier > [inaudible]
Naval officer (in blue uniform)> An what? You in my territory… [inaudible]
Presumably Russian soldier > .. [inaudible]… He have our mission
Naval officer (in blue uniform> I also have my mission
Presumably Russian soldier > .. [inaudible]…
Naval officer (in blue uniform> No, it is my vehicle, unit’s vehicle, BTR, belongs to state. You want this peacefully? So, solve it peacefully.
Presumably Russian soldier > And how it is possible to solve it peacefully with you?
Naval officer (in blue uniform> And how it is possible to solve it peacefully with YOU?
Presumably Russian soldier > Remove the vehicle
Naval officer (in blue uniform> Why? So you can take my weapons? NO
Another Ukrainian naval officer (maybe the one filming> Unload the crates and remove Kamaz (truck)
…some chatter from the portable radios
Presumably Russian soldier > So you do not want it normally?
Voice> We are doing it normally
Video end
[EDIT #1: Some text formatting

norrie rugger

brave lads! If true managed to stand down the Russians without firing first. Really think that Russia wants the Ukrainian forced to fire first. They would love the propaganda opportunity

Xios

norrie rugger wrote: »

brave lads! If true managed to stand down the Russians without firing first. Really think that Russia wants the Ukrainian forced to fire first. They would love the propaganda opportunity

I believe this is a picture of them.
http://i.imgur.com/XUTQHtj.jpg

norrie rugger

seriously. If the Ukrainians shoot then it will give the Russians the pretence of defending their troops and, of course, the people of Crimea. Because this is all to do with them and not Russian expansionism.

war29

I am sure all former soviet nations bordering the Ukraine are at high alert as well. As if a war started there would be a humanitarian crisis.

Victor

pilatus wrote: »

Their artillery and anti air artillery is nearly the same as the Russians

By basic model sure, but differences will have evolved over the last 20-25 years. However, the big difference is that Russia has a lot more. Sure, the have to keep forces in the Caucuses and the Far East, but htey have a lot available.

Regarding the s300/400 threat, it will be no walk in the park, that's for sure. Israel , Turkey and the United States have been monitoring the recent s300 deliveries to Syria and their elint platforms have been busy monitoring the missile battery electronic and radar emissions that are emitted. Greece also operates the s300 and you can be sure NATO and the US have had a sneak peek at them too. They will know what signals to emit to confuse and jam their radar guidance units.

Knowing how to jam one country's system doesn't guarantee you know how to jam another's.

With the missiles range they would be able to operate from Russian territory and shoot down Allied planes from a safe distance so cruise missile strikes would be the best option here.

But how would you do those cruise missile strikes? Sure, you can use ALCM, but getting Tomahawk in range is more problematic. Any naval forces are potentially sitting in a gold fish bowl.

airsofter1234 wrote: »

I don't think the west would get involved in a fight against Russia because it wont even get more involved in Syria than covertly supplying light arms to al-Qaeda inspired groups in Syria.

It is one thing dealing with Syria. Ukraine received security guarantees in exchange for giving up its nuclear weapons. If 'The West', in particular those guarantors, want to be taken seriously in other anti-proliferation issues, then they will need to show they are taking the situation seriously.

war29 wrote: »

I am sure all former soviet nations bordering the Ukraine are at high alert as well. As if a war started there would be a humanitarian crisis.

Not quite. Russia has defence agreements with several of those states. Kazakhstan is 48% Russian, but without Russian state help is unable to defend it's own borders.

nbar12

Everyone needs to chill the fúck out! Has anyone been reading the news? Eamon Gilmore is attending an emergency EU meeting in Brussels and Putin is surely going to shít his pants when he hears Gilmore is out to get him

pilatus

20-25 years, they have exchanged military technologies over that time. For example every Antonov aircraft is built in Ukraine and Russia operates alot of them.

Sure Russia has newer tech, but in limited numbers. The defence acquisition budget until recently has been terribly shy of what is actually needed, more went into sustainment and upgrading older platforms then buying new ones. The Russians were to upgrade 400 MiG29's to SMT standard for instance over 10 years ago, a few dozen were upgraded and the whole thing was cancelled and only now are they carrying out minor upgrades to keep them airworthy until new machines are built.

The Americans or Nato are not limited to naval launched tomahawks , B1 Lancers B52 stratofortress' B2 spirits all launch conventional cruise missiles outside S300/400 range.

They would have a good enough chance of suppressing/Jamming the radar units from having inspected physical examples and studying their algorithms and different tracking modes.

Conmaicne Mara

nbar12 wrote: »

Everyone needs to chill the fúck out! Has anyone been reading the news? Eamon Gilmore is attending an emergency EU meeting in Brussels and Putin is surely going to shít his pants when he hears Gilmore is out to get him

Listen Vlad, it's Labours way or... urgh, argh!,glug, eurrrghhh, thud..........

Tzar Chasm

one thing still confuses me, people are saying that one of the key reasons for this Invasion is the fear that Russia will lose their ports in the Crimea, why would that prompt them to instigate aggression, surely if the Ukranian Government tried to renege on their lease they would be in a far stronger position to appeal to the international community, or worst case scenario they could try something like the americans did in Guantanamo when Castro tried to renege.

Cork boy 55

Irish ukranians not russians

Victor

Tzar Chasm wrote: »

one thing still confuses me, people are saying that one of the key reasons for this Invasion is the fear that Russia will lose their ports in the Crimea

Who is saying this?

Morpheus

Ive heard this too. Russia has traditionally (for something like 200 years) had sevastapol as a naval base.

But its also got its own territorial access to the black sea so technically it really doesnt need the crimean peninsula.

I think that following the oppositions overthrow of the pro russian president and the new minority language law they enacted immediately - that says ukrainian is the sole national language, combined with the probability that they will be very pro european... that russia basically went in here to say, look, this is what WILL happen if you even think about kicking us out of our leased bases in the crimea.

To be honest, it was somewhat right wing of them to claim a language spoken by a quite sizeable portion of the population was no longer recognised as a national language, but Russia is walking a tightrope with the false invasion.

Ukraine has the largest population of muslims in the former soviet states and most of those live in the crimea. its a tinderbox waiting to explode and the russians should just pack up and leave at this stage.

Xios

Half the soldiers station in Belbek March on the Airstrip to retake command of it. The marched unarmed against the russian soldier. Brave ****ers, the lot of em.

The russians were shooting off into the air above them too.

https://mobile.twitter.com/shustry/status/440734434686689280?screen_name=shustry

Video:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10151917315347217

bbc news with commentary

Jawgap

Stovepipe wrote: »

Hi all,
NATO need not fire a shot. It can block the Bosphorus and bottle up the Black Sea Fleet.....Ukraine, politically, is stymied by needing gas from Russia so unless it changes gas suppliers any time soon, Russia has it by the balls. There might be a few small scale fights but you could credibly see the Crimean Peninsula going back into Russia, as well as parts of Eastern Ukraine.This also has implications for seagoing access for Ukraine.

regards
Stovepipe

The Bosphorous is an international strait, NATO can't block it unless war is declared.

cruasder777

Stinicker wrote: »

Pity George W. Bush was not still in office he'd have mushroom clouds all the way to Siberia by now and this is what the Russians deserve for invading Ukraine.

Right now we have a toothless UN and Nato and the situation resembles the League of Nations and the appeasement of Hitler when he invaded the Sudetendland in 1939. The Russian Army could make a drive westwards and reach the Rhine in weeks.

Nato should be launching airstrikes against strategic targets in Western Russia right now but they will do nothing because they are cowards. They will be forced to act when it is too late the Continent burns all over again very soon.

You are having a laugh, you suggest a nuclear war is started over this, thats what it would escalate to. If the US nuked Russia, do you not think they would respond ?


Let keep it real folks.

The Ukraine has a democratic govt, that govt has been overthrown by civil unrest and a military putsch.

The Ukrainian govt has ASKED its ally Russia to step in to prevent civil war.

Wheres the invasion ?



Interestingly Putin is on record as saying Russia no longer needs nukes, now that Russia supplies most of Europe with oil and gas, Russia holds all the cards.

They could turn off the gas and oil western Europe would come to a standstill.

norrie rugger

What civil war?
The president is answerable to the people and demonstrated a complete lack of morals, in his dealing on all sides.
the occupation of the square was peaceful, until he ordered intervention.

Calibos

I just Hope Denzel keeps his Nuclear arming Key away from Gene Hackman so they don't launch before the Ukraine sort this mess out. Or else there could be a Crimson Tide in the Crimea!

cruasder777

norrie rugger wrote: »

What civil war?
The president is answerable to the people and demonstrated a complete lack of morals, in his dealing on all sides.
the occupation of the square was peaceful, until he ordered intervention.

He was democratically elected, you cant just have a revolution everytime you dont like a leader, the whole point of democracy is you get a chance to vote them out.


Id love it if Putin turned off the oil and gas for a week and put some manners on the EU.

cruasder777

The groups trying to take over Ukraine are fascist. Why is the west backing fascists against a democratic govt ?

Anything to p.... Russia off.

http://rt.com/news/nationalists-storm-council-meeting-701/

Tzar Chasm

You Should have a revolution whenever the Government acts against the will of the people or activley attempts to Kill them.

Yanukovich lost all legitimate right to call himself president the night e fled.

how many of the people in the interm government are Fascist, hell, how do you define fascist in this contxt, is it just because they want National soverignty and distrust the Russians?

even if some of them are Fascists, you are tarring them all with the same brush, the Dail has some Shinners in it therefore the entire opposition is baby murdering IRA terrorists.

RT is an ok news source for a Rusian government perspective, but it is a Propaganda mouthpiece for Putin