Housing Shortage

MouseTail

The ESRI claims we need to be building 25,000 units a year to meet housing demand. 'The 36 months from January 2011 to December 2013 saw barely 2,000 new dwellings started in Dublin, whereas estimates suggest the capital needs that number of new homes every four months.'


IMO the construction sector is getting off its knees, there are obvious signs of recovery as cranes once again appear on the skyline. The problem is managing the balance between providing an incentive to the industry, whilst ensuring we don't over-heat and over rely on the sector again.

superman28

Yes there is a massive housing shortage in Dublin, but although we will see dangerous double digit price increases in both Rent and House prices over the next year, this is different from a bubble as there is very little credit from the banks for ordinary people.

50% of the purchases are from cash buyers, wealthy investors are snapping up what they can as banks offer poor returns for savings, etc.. the sample size of transactions that the "rise" is very small,, so the market view is distorted.

A dead cat bounce (common enough after housing crashes) means that their will be a jump in prices from the floor 10-20% as investors swoop in, but then a levelling off or possibly fall again as new builds/repossions (at present almost non existant in Ireland) /and further sales from taxed landlords properties in about 18-24 months time.

But I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for the government to do anything, as it is in their best interest to inflate property prices again as they control Nama the worlds largest and least transparent property owner.. what would be good if the banks and Nama released all the property onto the market, lent to developers so they could start building again.

Slideshowbob

If there's a shortage of houses in Dublin, I gather NAMA and the banks have released ALL apartments etc onto the market at current sale / rental prices.

This world mean singletons/students/couples who currently occupy "family homes" can move into apartments and hence free up houses for families ....

The_Conductor

Slideshowbob wrote: »

If there's a shortage of houses in Dublin, I gather NAMA and the banks have released ALL apartments etc onto the market at current sale / rental prices.

This world mean singletons/students/couples who currently occupy "family homes" can move into apartments and hence free up houses for families ....

The release of units in Dublin by NAMA and the banks is complicated by a few factors.

First off- NAMA predominantly owns commercial and office space in the Dublin area- very little residential property. Of the residential developments they have interests in- most are being completed- some have already been released for sheltered housing units (notably at Beacon Court etc)- and they will in total have about 2,000 units to release over the next 30 months.

The banks- are finding it very difficult to repossess anything other than BTL properties in the Dublin area- and those units are not vacant- so repossessing isn't releasing free units onto the market.

We need new developments of high density units- with very good facilities and amenities- which frankly- isn't on the cards- even now, everyone wants their detached or semi-d with front and back gardens, housing shortage bedamned...........

Allowing councils control planning- has not worked- and needs to be urgently looked at.

murphaph

The_Conductor wrote: »

We need new developments of high density units- with very good facilities and amenities- which frankly- isn't on the cards- even now, everyone wants their detached or semi-d with front and back gardens, housing shortage bedamned...........

Allowing councils control planning- has not worked- and needs to be urgently looked at.

Amen. Still no joined up land use strategy for Greater Dublin. The Dail really got what it wanted when it smashed Dublin County Council into pieces.

ronan45

Are there any "Ghost Estates" left in Dublin? Any sites i know that were shut down all have builders back on site !!!

chris85

Shortage seems to be worse in last few months. I have been keeping an eye on houses in north Dublin over the last 6 months. I now have approval the last few weeks and there is very little coming on the market, less than there was 6 months ago.

I wonder how many people are holding off selling based on increasing prices at the moment?

The_Conductor

ronan45 wrote: »

Are there any "Ghost Estates" left in Dublin? Any sites i know that were shut down all have builders back on site !!!

Dublin and its immediate hinterlands in Kildare and Meath- have pretty much been picked clean.