Grand National Weights Revealed

byronbay2

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/9161172/tidal-bay-tops-national-weights

Tidal Bay top weight with 11-10.

Other interesting contenders: Bog Warrior 11-02, Mossey Joe 11-01

byronbay2

http://www.oddschecker.com/grand-national-betting-odds/winner

Updated betting on the race. Fair dues to Ladbrokes for going 25/1 the field - how very unlike them!

kiers47

Tidal Bay been given a very live chance by the handicapper. In essence running off a rating of 161 7lb lower than his OR of 168. Would be great if the old boy could take it down.
Alfie Sherrin off 9-11 is interesting but he will be 3lbs out of the hc.

Colonel Sanders

kiers47 wrote: »

he will be 3lbs out of the hc.

Yeah the first port of call with the Grand national is to see who'll carry top weight. there's often Gold Cup contenders entered who are unlikely to run. Tidal bay runs barring accidents so your current weight is surely the weight you'll carry on the day

Number 88 on the list Kiers, will surely struggle to get a run (but its money back if ballotted out

kiers47

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Yeah the first port of call with the Grand national is to see who'll carry top weight. there's often Gold Cup contenders entered who are unlikely to run. Tidal bay runs barring accidents so your current weight is surely the weight you'll carry on the day

Number 88 on the list Kiers, will surely struggle to get a run (but its money back if ballotted out

Ya will be going well to get in alright but I would be hopefull he will. Haven't him backed yet nor will I back him until closer to the day but I think he is a national winner in the making and he will relish the trip. Whether that be this year I have no idea. I wouldn't think he will be much shorter than the 33s 25s on the day unless a McManus gamble takes off!!

longshotvalue

Im on Mr Moonshine at 220 on betfair , but he rather stupidly won another race at the weekend and has 11:01 .. He would have been better not to win again as its cost him a fair few pounds.. He ran a great race over the fences earlier this year and was really suited by it..

Nulty

Sunnyhillboy will do for me again this year. Back to his mark from two years ago. Shouldn't be 33s.

Colonel Sanders

Teaforthree tops Timeform ratings

Nulty

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Teaforthree tops Timeform ratings

No surprise there. Ran like the winner for 95% of the race last year. I'll be on him again.

Colonel Sanders

Any thoughts on who'll be Pricewised?

I was originally thinking Teaforthree plus A.N. Other at a bigger price but he might not be able to resist putting Tiday Bay up at 25/1 off 161

Edit: no longer 25/1 The Field. A good few have been trimmed to 20s. I took some 25/1 on Miss Rebecca Curtis' horse

Nulty

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Any thoughts on who'll be Pricewised?

I was originally thinking Teaforthree plus A.N. Other at a bigger price but he might not be able to resist putting Tiday Bay up at 25/1 off 161

He's been tempted by Irish horses in recent years with Seabass.

He will almost definitely put up Tidal Bay, he put him up at 20s last year.

Nulty

Teaforthree will probably have a weak comeback this weekend and may be pushed back out to 25s. I'll wait until then to get on.

mountai

If Big Shu line out my money would be on him.

kksaints

Sire Collonges is an interesting runner. Battled back really well at Cheltenham last time out over 3m7f. Teaforthree would also be a horse that I would like. Although I would be slightly worried that he possibly didnt stay out the trip fully last year. I think Mossey Joe got a bit more weight than I expected would put me off him a little.

madmoose

Think godsmejudge is on a nice weight, ill be on him after he done me well in the scottish national last term.

Colonel Sanders

Tidal Bay & T43 the money horses on Betfair

Both Pricewise?

Thought 25/1 T43 was more than fair off 2lbs lower than last year & off a decent racing weight in 10st 12

sting60

madmoose wrote: »

Think godsmejudge is on a nice weight, ill be on him after he done me well in the scottish national last term.

The best handicapped horse in the race .His ratings are based on a sick horse ,sound jumper when right,massive big horse,stays,good ground.My tip big time.There is no way Phil Smith will be exposed giving top weight 7lbs and leave other horses unexposed.If you see how well Godsmejudge is handicapped it makes real difference to 7lbs top weight.

UrbanSea

Does anyone else disagree with the likes of Tidal Bay getting special ratings for this race

Colonel Sanders

UrbanSea wrote: »

Does anyone else disagree with the likes of Tidal Bay getting special ratings for this race

Yes its a joke

Imagine you owned a horse running off its correct mark and its done a short head by a horse who carried 7lbs less for no reason

If they actually compressed the weights on some form of sliding scale I could possibly understand but arbitrarily knocking lbs off some of the top rated horses is nonsense

Awaits the its a special race comments. It isn't any longer, its been altered in such a way that its simply another handicap chase (albeit a hugely valuable one)

Colonel Sanders

'Plastic' Grand National at risk of becoming a parody, says Timeform

sting60

Smith has decided to compact the ratings .Top weight getting 7lbs leaves other horse getting 10 lb Godsmegudge[better again in].He has rated old horses high of 7lbs less with nothing over this distance.There is no way Smith would give an 8yr old that rating as a stayer.

Colonel Sanders

T43 surely pricewise, very little 20s left.

Tidal Bay blue across the board also. Guessing the online edition is up by now

Shakalakaboomboom could be the other selection, very strong most of the day but has really shortened since I last looked

UrbanSea

Wyck Hill must be interesting, I'm really sure he has been trying this year :rolleyes:

madmoose

Cant be fussed with seagull tipping teaforthree as i was going to back as my other horse hope it does average sat and price goes out again.

Harry Angstrom

Sunyhillboy looks nicely weighted. Coming back to form again.

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

T43 surely pricewise, very little 20s left.

Tidal Bay blue across the board also. Guessing the online edition is up by now

Shakalakaboomboom could be the other selection, very strong most of the day but has really shortened since I last looked

Oddschecker told its tale

T43 at 25/1 & Shakalakaboomboom at 40/1

Kid Charlemagne

UrbanSea wrote: »

Wyck Hill must be interesting, I'm really sure he has been trying this year :rolleyes:

Make sure you get non runner no bet as he is 96 on the list so not at all likely to get in.

Quel Esprit would be another in a similar situation. 80th on the list so v unlikely to get in. However - if he did would be off 10 00. Carried 11 7 last year and was pulled up, but youd imagine a year and 1.5 stone would enliven his chances.
Little or no chance of a run though.

UrbanSea

Kid Charlemagne wrote: »

Make sure you get non runner no bet as he is 96 on the list so not at all likely to get in.

Quel Esprit would be another in a similar situation. 80th on the list so v unlikely to get in. However - if he did would be off 10 00. Carried 11 7 last year and was pulled up, but youd imagine a year and 1.5 stone would enliven his chances.
Little or no chance of a run though.

No need to worry about NRNB, If they don't get in because of being balloted out you get your stake back

Kid Charlemagne

cheers urbansea, wasn't aware of that

would that apply on betfair as well or just normal bookies?

UrbanSea

I'm nearly sure it's both

sting60

There is no way Phil Smith will be exposed in rating old horses who never ran over the distance over fences.Look at horses that will now be well handicapped,there are loads.How many horses at 10.11 will now improve a stone now they are handicapped[Barney Curley RIP]

hucklebuck

UrbanSea wrote: »

Does anyone else disagree with the likes of Tidal Bay getting special ratings for this race

Not a bit of it, hope he wins off it. He is a 13 year old who has been run on his merits all of his life and I hope the strangled horses all finish behind him.

rossom

hucklebuck wrote: »

Not a bit of it, hope he wins off it. He is a 13 year old who has been run on his merits all of his life and I hope the strangled horses all finish behind him.

Isn't that precisely the reason why it should be considered a joke that Phil Smith drops him 7lb to effectively a mark of 161?

Narrowly beaten 3rd in the Welsh National off 163 giving first 2 home 26lb, followed that up with an excellent 2nd in the Hennessy; effectively confirming his win in the Lexus in December 2012 through First Lieutenant's proximity whilst he was 2nd to the Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth off 166 giving him 6lb in the Hennessey.

How can Smith justify letting him in off effectively 161 when he has proven, despite his age, he deserves his 168 rating and bar the Betfair Chase he has run a huge race on his 7 runs since April 2012.

You can guarantee if he was 8 or 9 years old Smith wouldn't have let him off 7lb.

I've always liked Tidal Bay quite a bit and wouldn't begrudge him victory but surely it has to go down as a joke if he wins off Smith's revised rating.

sting60

Based on age/distance he is not well handicapped imo .AT10 down you see well handicapped younger horses.Top two have no chance to win National if you study Smith .He will not leave himself exposed .This is not a mystery loads of horses will now find form[without Barney Curley].

Harry Angstrom

If Tidal Bay ran off his true mark, chances are he wouldn't turn up. I think it's fascinating to see him in the race. It makes it a lot more interesting. Give me classy horses running in the Grand National any day, over watching 40 one-paced donkeys.

hucklebuck

rossom wrote: »

Isn't that precisely the reason why it should be considered a joke that Phil Smith drops him 7lb to effectively a mark of 161?

Narrowly beaten 3rd in the Welsh National off 163 giving first 2 home 26lb, followed that up with an excellent 2nd in the Hennessy; effectively confirming his win in the Lexus in December 2012 through First Lieutenant's proximity whilst he was 2nd to the Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth off 166 giving him 6lb in the Hennessey.

How can Smith justify letting him in off effectively 161 when he has proven, despite his age, he deserves his 168 rating and bar the Betfair Chase he has run a huge race on his 7 runs since April 2012.

You can guarantee if he was 8 or 9 years old Smith wouldn't have let him off 7lb.

I've always liked Tidal Bay quite a bit and wouldn't begrudge him victory but surely it has to go down as a joke if he wins off Smith's revised rating.

Not saying I agree part of it could be how steeply he has dropped 9 year old Long Run who has won and placed twice in the Gold Cup, last one less than a year ago. He has dropped LR 12lbs since winning a KG and third in the last GC.

Poor Hunt Ball getting 4lbs and 3lbs off them and never near Grade 1 level.

rossom

hucklebuck wrote: »

Not saying I agree part of it could be how steeply he has dropped 9 year old Long Run who has won and placed twice in the Gold Cup, last one less than a year ago. He has dropped LR 12lbs since winning a KG and third in the last GC.

Poor Hunt Ball getting 4lbs and 3lbs off them and never near Grade 1 level.

By that logic then surely Phil Smith has ****ed up his handicapping duties in terms of dropping Long Run. Long Run has seemed regressive and just because he's now entered in a handicap shouldn't change anything.

Malarkey121

Can anyone confirm if your horse is balloted out you will get your stake back with bookmakers and Betfair exchange?

Id be interested in Merry King myself, he has caught the eye a few times in races looks an out and out stayer seems to always finish well after leaving far too much to do maybe the 4 miler at Cheltenham / Grand National will allow him to run a true race?

Harry Angstrom

Malarkey121 wrote: »

Can anyone confirm if your horse is balloted out you will get your stake back with bookmakers and Betfair exchange?

Id be interested in Merry King myself, he has caught the eye a few times in races looks an out and out stayer seems to always finish well after leaving far too much to do maybe the 4 miler at Cheltenham / Grand National will allow him to run a true race?

I'm fairly sure that if your horse is balloted out, you get your money back. "If you can't win, you can't lose"

Colonel Sanders

Malarkey121 wrote: »

Can anyone confirm if your horse is balloted out you will get your stake back with bookmakers and Betfair exchange?

Id be interested in Merry King myself, he has caught the eye a few times in races looks an out and out stayer seems to always finish well after leaving far too much to do maybe the 4 miler at Cheltenham / Grand National will allow him to run a true race?

You do

The problem is if a horse is miles away from getting a run the owners might not bother paying up at the various forfeit stages

But just to be clear, if your horse is declared to run and is ballotted out you get a refund. This applies to bookmakers and Betfair

hucklebuck

rossom wrote: »

By that logic then surely Phil Smith has ****ed up his handicapping duties in terms of dropping Long Run. Long Run has seemed regressive and just because he's now entered in a handicap shouldn't change anything.

I think so, no doubt Long Run is on the slide but the drop is mammoth given the level he could run to a bit over a year ago, some horses could be 4 years getting a drop of that amount, could be connections influence.

Long Run has regressed too quickly for my liking, I would not be surprised if he has a cracked rib or something like it from the belt he he took in the Charlie Hall, he seriously hit it and they may not have found a minor injury

Harry Angstrom

hucklebuck wrote: »

I think so, no doubt Long Run is on the slide but the drop is mammoth given the level he could run to a bit over a year ago, some horses could be 4 years getting a drop of that amount, could be connections influence.

Long Run has regressed too quickly for my liking, I would not be surprised if he has a cracked rib or something like it from the belt he he took in the Charlie Hall, he seriously hit it and they may not have found a minor injury

Surely you couldn't be suggesting that Robert Waley-Cohen, chairman of Cheltenham racecourse and good friend of Lord Daresbury could have any influence over what the handicapper allots to Long Run!

Hulk Hands

rossom wrote: »

Narrowly beaten 3rd in the Welsh National off 163 giving first 2 home 26lb, followed that up with an excellent 2nd in the Hennessy; effectively confirming his win in the Lexus in December 2012 through First Lieutenant's proximity whilst he was 2nd to the Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth off 166 giving him 6lb in the Hennessey.

As I said in another thread, that form isnt as strong as you think. Look at Texas Jack's proximity, a clear non stayer. The ground at Xmas is much better than in Feb, which explains First L's drop off. His form from last weekend doesn't get near that 2012 Lexus form. He actually ran quite a poor race in my eyes, as did FL.

finbarrk

I had fancied Tidal Bay before the weights were announced and backed him accordingly. I'm happy with what he got. Well done Phil!

Colonel Sanders

Great run from T43 today, should be spot on for Aintree

14/1 best price now & shorter on Betfair

finbarrk

Yep. Teaforthree ran well. Deserving favourite now. A good Clare man behind him too! Best of luck to them.

Colonel Sanders

Burton Port ran a decent National trial there

McCoy made a lot of use of him but think that was to see could he rekindle the old enthusiasm. If they can keep him sweet he might run a big race under a more patient ride at Aintree

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Burton Port ran a decent National trial there

McCoy made a lot of use of him but think that was to see could he rekindle the old enthusiasm. If they can keep him sweet he might run a big race under a more patient ride at Aintree

Annoying

Hills were slow to cut their 50s, added it to Betslip. By the time I added funds it was cut to 33s

longshotvalue

Grand National Ante Post

I've seen enough there to know that Burton Port is not a 50/1 shot with under 11 Stone on his back in the national. Looked superb wont be any where near that. To be beaten by one of the Williams Mud sloggers there is no disgrace..

1 Point EW 50/1 Racebets

kiers47

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Annoying

Hills were slow to cut their 50s, added it to Betslip. By the time I added funds it was cut to 33s

Stuck it up here before the last run.

Got 50s alright a week or so ago. Looks very well handicapped and I'd be happy enough with the run.

Colonel Sanders

Any news on T43?

Price is a bit up and down on Betfair and liquidity appears then dries up on the pink side