Betfair Hurdle

Nulty

So my picks are Cheltenian and Alaivan....

I looked through loads of the form last night (rejuvenated interest in punting ) and saw Alaivan was a very interesting runner. He is entered on Thursday at Huntingdon aswell though and I wanted to wait to see what would happen with that. I see he's blue across the boards on oddschecker now. Missed the 40s but nicked a little 33s. Hate that stuff. At least thats a small indication that he will line up.

McManus has 3 in it. Alaivan, GMOOH and Prompter. Alaivan looks like he's going to be the one though. Prompter wants better ground and GMOOH has had 3 goes in the race and will need a claimer based on those performances. Alaivan is well handicapped on old form and his last run shows he may be able to get back to that.

Anyone hear of any news on the horse today?

madmoose

Im on dell arca, theres improvement in this horse and was unlucky unseating last time out when travelling well.

NaiveMelodies

Swing Bowler at 16s is massive for me.
Only 2 pounds above last years mark after a great run in the same race behind MTOY and Cotton Mill and if one can forgive her run in the mares, she has to have an outstanding chance.
She had always been kept to flat tracks prior to her run at the festival, and while I'm finding it hard to find out why she ran so poorly that day, I'm taking the chance that something wasn't completely spot on with her, as I know she was fancied to run Quevega reasonably close.
Hasn't had any problems when going fresh before, and while this is obviously a hot hot race to be starting your season in, I cannot get away from the price and her mark of 136.
Not unlike the Pipes to have one under the radar in these hot handicaps either.

BumperD

When looking at this race, I try to see if there's something that has the class to line up in a supreme or champion hurdle. That can rule out most of the field straight away. With that in mind, dell arca and cheltenian (who would have contested a supreme except for injury) would be my fancies.

UrbanSea

BumperD wrote: »

When looking at this race, I try to see if there's something that has the class to line up in a supreme or champion hurdle. That can rule out most of the field straight away.

Maybe, but the fact that it's a handicap shouldn't make that imperative. A quick look I do like Cheltenian too Nulty but not entirely convinced I'll have a bet it's very competitive

longshotvalue

Not very original but Recession Proof was travelling well last time when he fell, and he looks great value at 25/1.

jimjamcos

Yep, planning on giving Recession Proof another chance too. He a definite runner?

Nulty

Have to say Cheltenians bumper isn't exactly a who's who of hurdling superstars. What's he beat? Not sure I'm on the right one there but he's on a very low weight for a bumper winner and his win on heavy ground last time was a good indication that he'll handle whatever comes up weather wise on Saturday.

I like Recession Proof too but I'm not enamoured by his performances since his comeback. He's travelled well but found nothing in his last races. Sure he might come back but after a fall like he had last time I won't be a player until I see something more.

longshotvalue

Betfair Hurdle Ante-Post Bet

It’s not like me to be bothered putting up ante-post bets, but I’m going to go with a small win bet on Recession Proof in the Betfair Hurdle on Saturday. He was travelling well last time out when he fell, and I just can’t resist the 25/1 Available in a few places at the moment. He has form on soft and has won a similar race before of the same mark in these conditions albeit a few years ago.

He started well over hurdles and then finished 5th in what must be the most ridiculous Supreme Hurdle ever in terms of future form. Of the 4 in front only Spirit Son hasn’t proved to be absolutely top class (only because he won 1 more race and hasn’t been seen since). The others are Al Ferof, Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card. Recession Proof finished in the lead group 7 lengths clear of a couple of other good yardsticks and that form would simply cruise this race with 10:08 on his back. Obviously he may never reach that peak again but he won’t need to here and I saw enough in his last run to make 25/1 Tempting. He does need to get over what looked a heavy enough fall, but all that is built into the price and I can see him being backed down to more like 12/1 on the day and id be raging if I hadn’t a point on at 25/1

1 Point win 25/1 Various

ste2010

aidankkk wrote: »

Betfair Hurdle Ante-Post Bet

It’s not like me to be bothered putting up ante-post bets, but I’m going to go with a small win bet on Recession Proof in the Betfair Hurdle on Saturday. He was travelling well last time out when he fell, and I just can’t resist the 25/1 Available in a few places at the moment. He has form on soft and has won a similar race before of the same mark in these conditions albeit a few years ago.

He started well over hurdles and then finished 5th in what must be the most ridiculous Supreme Hurdle ever in terms of future form. Of the 4 in front only Spirit Son hasn’t proved to be absolutely top class (only because he won 1 more race and hasn’t been seen since). The others are Al Ferof, Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card. Recession Proof finished in the lead group 7 lengths clear of a couple of other good yardsticks and that form would simply cruise this race with 10:08 on his back. Obviously he may never reach that peak again but he won’t need to here and I saw enough in his last run to make 25/1 Tempting. He does need to get over what looked a heavy enough fall, but all that is built into the price and I can see him being backed down to more like 12/1 on the day and id be raging if I hadn’t a point on at 25/1

1 Point win 25/1 Various

You forgot to mention that spirit son beat cue card by 27l's if I can recall in that single race he won before not being seen again :-)

Has there been any sounds from the yard recession proof has retained his ability?

Mossey Joe

BumperD wrote: »

When looking at this race, I try to see if there's something that has the class to line up in a supreme or champion hurdle. That can rule out most of the field straight away. With that in mind, dell arca and cheltenian (who would have contested a supreme except for injury) would be my fancies.

He did contest a supreme;)

Mossey Joe

I like Cheltenian too, his run when being nutted by Minella Forfitness and having Valdez behind makes him look very well handicapped off 134, jumping is a concern though

BumperD

Mossey Joe wrote: »

He did contest a supreme;)

My bad. He finished so far back (think he got injured?) I missed him....I should re-phrase..."barely" contested :pac:. He's entered again this yr so must retain novice status?

I need to have a deeper look at this race. Recent winners have tended to go on & be competitive in the big hurdle races at March (get me out of here, zarkandar, my tent or yours). Nicholls had a decent word at their open day last w/e for far west if the ground turns up heavy (which is likely). Still edging towards dell arca given what he achieved in the greatwood on his first run in the uk, backed him lto & he was unlucky to be taken out of the race when travelling sweetly. Samtegal let the form down a little last w/e but flaxen flare ran well since.

Nulty

Well Alaivan has not been declared for the Huntingdon race so thats a bit of comfort. He's no hot favourite and to be honest I'm surprised he's now as low as 14s with Skybet. Wish the price held up for a little longer so I could get more on with more confidence. The odds still give him between a 4.76% and 6.66% chance.

the groutch

Nulty wrote: »

McManus has 3 in it. Alaivan, GMOOH and Prompter. Alaivan looks like he's going to be the one though.

actually he has a 4th, Snake Eyes who stayed on well from way back to finish 6th in the Boylesports Hurdle, and shouldnt be discounted.

UrbanSea

the groutch wrote: »

actually he has a 4th, Snake Eyes who stayed on well from way back to finish 6th in the Boylesports Hurdle, and shouldnt be discounted.

Think he is out of the handicap is he

premierstone

UrbanSea wrote: »

Think he is out of the handicap is he

Will only be a pound out of the handicap when/if Melodic Rendevous withdraws, this horse will definitely scoot in at a big price some day, when that will be is anyones guess though!

Nulty

the groutch wrote: »

actually he has a 4th, Snake Eyes who stayed on well from way back to finish 6th in the Boylesports Hurdle, and shouldnt be discounted.

Yeah I forgot about him writing the post. Your right though, shouldn't be discounted

Nulty

I see Totalize is being backed now aswell. He's got a good profile and I always like Ellisons horses in these big handicaps. This is a very competitive race....you maybe right in steering clear Urban

Colonel Sanders

Irving out

Far West runs for Nicholls

hucklebuck

Two words "Jumps Road", give or take a lb or two he has run 150-153 twice and is carrying 10-9. 25/1 is huge

Colonel Sanders

Far West in effect runs off 141 with Derham's claim, I liked him ante post but assumed he wouldn't run. Prices are long gone now

del roy

snake eyes out according to boyles

Colonel Sanders

del roy wrote: »

snake eyes out according to boyles

He's not declared

Card is here

del roy

Mr sanders
does that mean money back or is it lost

Ta

Colonel Sanders

del roy wrote: »

Mr sanders
does that mean money back or is it lost

Ta

I'd say money lost as I didn't see any bookmaker NRNB before the decs (but could be wrong about that)

del roy

cheers

Pearlstone

My two pokes at what is a very difficult handicap are Chris Pea Green and Vendor.

BumperD

BumperD wrote: »

I need to have a deeper look at this race. Recent winners have tended to go on & be competitive in the big hurdle races at March (get me out of here, zarkandar, my tent or yours). Nicholls had a decent word at their open day last w/e for far west if the ground turns up heavy (which is likely). Still edging towards dell arca given what he achieved in the greatwood on his first run in the uk, backed him lto & he was unlucky to be taken out of the race when travelling sweetly. Samtegal let the form down a little last w/e but flaxen flare ran well since.

He was backed antepost from 25's into general 12's in the last 48 hours. Obviously, the other axiom runner irving is out but this is a big pot for the stable, whose (stable) sponsor is generously putting up a big prize. They had 3 high class possibles in mind for this race and he's made no secret that he's been saving Harry Derim's claim for big prizes. The positive vibes & profile of the horse point to a decent run. His distant 2nd in last yrs triump to champion hurdler contender Our Connor might look even better this saturday. Still some 14's NRNB 4 Places around & is worth chancing for me -more appealing than the 7's about dell arca after his unfortunate tumble & I've bet accordingly. If this comes off, I will seal the war chest & put it in a time lock safe for the festival :pac:

There's a bit of chop in the forecast so I do hope the meeting goes ahead saturday.

BumperD

One other point. Nicholls has a good line through Sametegal re Dell Arca from the greatwood hurdle. Far West is Far better than Sametegal - just another angle to my logic but hey, its a fiercely competitive handicap but its Far West for me all day. I'm hoping Harry's 5 lb claim is further cut after the betfair hurdle this saturday

premierstone

Agree with everything you have said Bumper re Far west's chances and I agree he is a far more appealing proposition than Del Arca, can't agree or understand your assertion that he is far better than Sametegal though

BumperD

Perhaps I went a little over the top re sametegal. He did beat him fair & square in the triumph though

paddy no 11

first avenue wont be winning but if he can stay on in the mud for a place ill take that.

mailburner

gone ew on cheltenian at 10s
don't see that price being available on saturday

must be in the frame at the very least
saver on irish saint after his romp last time out

jimjamcos

Quinn confident about Recession Proof's chances by the sounds of it.

Malarkey121

I like Deep Trouble myself looks like value at 20's.
Held up until late and will swoop, he needs a true run race and looks sure to get it here, conditions will suit and should have won last 2 races with a bit in hand having being hampered last time but only beaten a head in the finish at Kempton.

His race at Sandown in the listed hurdle he made very good headway and was 2 lengths clear and would have been more for seeing something and veering right losing an iron but still winning.

nominated this as a target and has already had the "run" between December and Feb to get him right, I will have a bit each way to be in the top 4 or 5 places.

Trainer comments -

"In the future he could go to the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February if he runs well at Sandown. That race track would suit him ideally. That would be where I'd be inclined to go.

"He's a six-year-old and is taking his races a bit better than a younger horse and I think he could do with a run between now and February."

Case reflected on Deep Trouble's victory in the December Handicap Hurdle on Saturday when he nearly threw the race away after jinking right at the final flight and veering to the far rail, with jockey Leighton Aspell's feet out of both irons.

"He'd won the race going to the last and has then seen something and got unbalanced. Luckily, Leighton managed to stay aboard," said the Banbury trainer.

BumperD

It will be interesting to see what Tom Segal tips tomorrow.

Nulty

I read that McCoy wasn't even asked to ride Alaivan. JP wanted to claim of him from the beginning.

This is a very hot race and it would disappoint me if Irish Saint won just cause it's ripe for and upset. I've taken Cheltenian and Alaivan but I might be tempted by another ew on Totalize. You could realistically choose half of them and still not get a place.

Can't wait

tonic wine

Went for totalize ew @ 16/1

mailburner

BumperD wrote: »

It will be interesting to see what Tom Segal tips tomorrow.

wiseprice gone for poet in this 33s i think

20s in most now with one or two still at 25s

oddschecker very misleading

BumperD

mailburner wrote: »

wiseprice gone for poet in this 33s i think

20s in most now with one or two still at 25s

oddschecker very misleading

Saw that was blue. But about 7 others were as well so hoping someone lets me know. Got the marketing email from RP with picture if Segal, he must fancy one.

radharc

It's a race to sit back and watch, just too many serious contenders.

Pricewise selection is Poet at 40s

BumperD

radharc wrote: »

It's a race to sit back and watch, just too many serious contenders.

Too late for that, Far West is carrying my hopes and dreams of a free trip to the Cotswolds

superfurry1

I have gone for montbazon 36-1 for 2moro still entered for champion hurdle 130-1 bit of an unknown choc on board though and remember thinking would back for Cheltenham last year when a non runner some race 2moro ha

Gregk961

Thrown every bit of sense I have out the window and went Irish Saint, just going on the off chance that the last run was not just down to the step up in trip.

Nibbled at Ressecion Proof also. A lot of Ifs, but plenty of why nots

Nulty

4th and 6th unfortunately. Alaivan not quick enough and suffled back going around the turn but stayed on well to the line. Ew landed on Cheltenian though.