is beef farming a viable enterprise in this country??

farmingmad10

Is beef farming viable? What are the top beef farmers net profits/ha. Is everyone else just doing it all wrong or is their just no money in it??

Toplink

farmingmad10 wrote: »

Is beef farming viable? What are the top beef farmers net profits/ha. Is everyone else just doing it all wrong or is their just no money in it??

I'll get the popcorn, this could be a long one...

munkus

How could it be, each suckler costs 9000 euro to keep each year, madness Ted!

epfff

munkus wrote: »

How could it be, each suckler costs 9000 euro to keep each year, madness Ted!

A Beef farmer in my local bought 2 heifers in pub On the blind for 1500 and sold next morning for just over 2000 at xmas
Bought 2 fr bullacks last week in same pub for simular price and got 2200 in factory next morning
He owns only a small lawn so his profit per hectare will be high this year me thinks

maguic24

farmingmad10 wrote: »

Is beef farming viable? What are the top beef farmers net profits/ha. Is everyone else just doing it all wrong or is their just no money in it??

Dairy is where it's at!

munkus

epfff wrote: »

A Beef farmer in my local bought 2 heifers in pub On the blind for 1500 and sold next morning for just over 2000 at xmas
Bought 2 fr bullacks last week in same pub for simular price and got 2200 in factory next morning
He owns only a small lawn so his profit per hectare will be high this year me thinks

Where's this pub with the cheep cattle?

jfh

epfff wrote: »

A Beef farmer in my local bought 2 heifers in pub On the blind for 1500 and sold next morning for just over 2000 at xmas
Bought 2 fr bullacks last week in same pub for simular price and got 2200 in factory next morning
He owns only a small lawn so his profit per hectare will be high this year me thinks

hope he didn't buy them off you?!

jfh

maguic24 wrote: »

Dairy is where it's at!

this year:D

maguic24

jfh wrote: »

this year:D

Till 2020 at least, with quotas been abolished in 2015 and the targets set out in Food Harvest 2020.

farmerjj

maguic24 wrote: »

Till 2020 at least, with quotas been abolished in 2015 and the targets set out in Food Harvest 2020.

I hope your right but I just cant see it,i,d be worried it could be the next boom to bust.

epfff

jfh wrote: »

hope he didn't buy them off you?!

my local is full of 30-60acre farmers with a few very organic suckers that regularly need money quick when their tab meets its limit
They would see a day at the Mart As major hassle so happy to sell in pub to anyone that's cheques don'. Bounce

Viewtodiefor

farmerjj wrote: »

I hope your right but I just cant see it,i,d be worried it could be the next boom to bust.

Maybe it's heading the way of contracts for milk supply so that may put a floor on price (it also caps price which is not good either!) but at least you have some certainty and it gives co-ops guaranteed milk supply

simx

epfff wrote: »

my local is full of 30-60acre farmers with a few very organic suckers that regularly need money quick when their tab meets its limit
They would see a day at the Mart As major hassle so happy to sell in pub to anyone that's cheques don'. Bounce

Do these farmers that sell in the pub not hear back about the easy money this other man is making dealing on they're cattle

maguic24

farmerjj wrote: »

I hope your right but I just cant see it,i,d be worried it could be the next boom to bust.

You could be right!

reilig

maguic24 wrote: »

Till 2020 at least, with quotas been abolished in 2015 and the targets set out in Food Harvest 2020.

7 years ago there was a target to build 200,000 new houses in Ireland every year up to 2020. You'll find that targets are portable. Hopefully for everyone's sake the Dairy target goes up instead of down!

mikefoxo

I would say suckler-to-beef is on its way out and calf-to-beef is in. Why pay €7-800 to keep a cow that MIGHT go in calf. When you think about it all you really need the cow for after calving is milk supply.

Panch18

reilig wrote: »

7 years ago there was a target to build 200,000 new houses in Ireland every year up to 2020. You'll find that targets are portable. Hopefully for everyone's sake the Dairy target goes up instead of down!

Yeah but that was an absolute bulls##t target with regards to housing - that's more than the UK build every year - a monkey could see that's rubbish.

Milk is completely different, we are selling on the world market and it is that world market which will determine if we have the markets to sell the extra milk produced - if the markets evaporate the price will drop and so will production - if the markets remain strong and increase then we will have no problem increasing production.

Hasn't NZ tripled its milk production since the period of EU quotas?? There is a huge deficit in Ireland from 30 odd years of suppression with regards to production - that 30 years will be made up fro pretty rapidly I think

munkus

mikefoxo wrote: »

I would say suckler-to-beef is on its way out and calf-to-beef is in. Why pay €7-800 to keep a cow that MIGHT go in calf. When you think about it all you really need the cow for after calving is milk supply.

And if everyone goes this route where does the calf come from? Should the whole country be finishing Friesian X cattle bought from the dairy lads?

Panch18

mikefoxo wrote: »

I would say suckler-to-beef is on its way out and calf-to-beef is in. Why pay €7-800 to keep a cow that MIGHT go in calf. When you think about it all you really need the cow for after calving is milk supply.

Sucklers has always been a hugely inefficient form of farming, the whole idea of having a huge cow just to produce a calf is the height of inefficiency. The only reason its lasting is most suckler farmers are part timers and have the job to keep them going - if they hadn't the job then most would have left the game years ago

I can't see it lasting in any great numbers going forward - apart from those with jobs and off farm incomes

Panch18

munkus wrote: »

And if everyone goes this route where does the calf come from? Should the whole country be finishing Friesian X cattle bought from the dairy lads?

Probably yes!!!

Greengrass1

Panch18 wrote: »

Yeah but that was an absolute bulls##t target with regards to housing - that's more than the UK build every year - a monkey could see that's rubbish.

Milk is completely different, we are selling on the world market and it is that world market which will determine if we have the markets to sell the extra milk produced - if the markets evaporate the price will drop and so will production - if the markets remain strong and increase then we will have no problem increasing production.

Hasn't NZ tripled its milk production since the period of EU quotas?? There is a huge deficit in Ireland from 30 odd years of suppression with regards to production - that 30 years will be made up fro pretty rapidly I think

What happened in nz 30yr ago when all the supports were pulled away?? Mass amounts of suicide and mass abandonment of farms

Panch18

Greengrass1 wrote: »

What happened in nz 30yr ago when all the supports were pulled away?? Mass amounts of suicide and mass abandonment of farms

I never said what they did was right or wrong - just saying that a country can dramatically expand its milk production when it isn't hindered by quota. NZ tripled its milk production - Irelands has remained practically unchanged. There is pent up expansion in Ireland

No doubt there would be equally serious social problems in Ireland and EU is the EU money stopped flowing tomorrow

Sam Kade

Dairying might be the next boom but not bust. Any money being borrowed is secured and is used to generate profit. It's completely different to borrowing crazy money to build a mansion of a house with the only security being a job that relies on the building trade.

onyerbikepat

Everyone says that suckling is ineffecient, but what is the alternative, feeding diary jersey crosses. Come on, look whats happening with dairy bulls at the moment. Factories, we are told, just dont want them.
So are we all supposed to get into dairying. Am I the only one old enough to remember the Butter Mountains. If you increase the supply of anything you get a resulting drop in price. It's a fundamnetal law of economics. Dairying is no different.:(

Panch18

onyerbikepat wrote: »

Everyone says that suckling is ineffecient, but what is the alternative, feeding diary jersey crosses. Come on, look whats happening with dairy bulls at the moment. Factories, we are told, just dont want them.
So are we all supposed to get into dairying. Am I the only one old enough to remember the Butter Mountains. If you increase the supply of anything you get a resulting drop in price. It's a fundamnetal law of economics. Dairying is no different.:(

Dairying is no different - but the marketplace into which we are now selling is completely different to what it was 20 years ago - that's the key

And not every dairy farmer is using jersey - in fact I would say most aren't

bbam

mikefoxo wrote: »

I would say suckler-to-beef is on its way out and calf-to-beef is in. Why pay €7-800 to keep a cow that MIGHT go in calf. When you think about it all you really need the cow for after calving is milk supply.

The problem is that the calves are way over valued, if you add to that more lads looking for calves I can't imagine where it will go...

Rearing calves is no fun either, some lads seem to have very high losses..


For me for the moment buying weanlings in the backend seems good value, I picked up a few heifers late last autumn, April born - CH & CH/HE 280/290kg ~€485. Weaned and on meal... I thought they'd bawl the place down but no, they were weaned and all... To get them weanlings to mart would have cost €600-700. I ask you, only for the interest in breeding who'd have sucklers !!

rancher

bbam wrote: »

The problem is that the calves are way over valued, if you add to that more lads looking for calves I can't imagine where it will go...

Rearing calves is no fun either, some lads seem to have very high losses..


For me for the moment buying weanlings in the backend seems good value, I picked up a few heifers late last autumn, April born - CH & CH/HE 280/290kg ~€485. Weaned and on meal... I thought they'd bawl the place down but no, they were weaned and all... To get them weanlings to mart would have cost €600-700. I ask you, only for the interest in breeding who'd have sucklers !!

The suckler - beef enterprise was built on subsidies, it was never really profitable on its own and these farmers will have to face this reality in the next few years. Millions of Friesian bull calves are knocked on the head every year in NZ, that should be telling us there's no future in dairy beef

mikefoxo

bbam wrote: »

The problem is that the calves are way over valued, if you add to that more lads looking for calves I can't imagine where it will go...

I won't argue with you on value, but I would guess with end of quotas, dairy numbers increase, more calves, more supply but with the same demand (in the short term) so price should come down.

Re. NZ dairy beef. What sort of bull would the sire generally be: maternal/milk yield etc.? I heard there were promising results coming from an Angus X/ Hereford X trial by Teagasc.

Farmer Pudsey

Suckler farming is highly inefficient especially if we go down the route of sub 400 kg carcase's. I believe that this is only 1-2 years down the road. a lot of the issue with 2yold bulls was carcase size. Suckler farming may be viable where a farmer can produce a weanling 380+ kgs at 8-10 months from a cow with a unit cost of 400 ish euro. Otherwise it is economic suscide.

A Continental bullock grading R+ killing DW 380kgs leaves a difference of about 260 euro over a Freisian grading O-/O= killing DW 350. He leaves a difference of 330 over an AA killimg 300 grading O+ and 230 over a HEX killing 330kgs. The only thing that makes good quality cattle more economic is the high price paid to dairy farmers for a by product and often the price paid by farmers for certain types of store.

The only thing that makes continental bullocks profitable is the ability of some farmers to target them at a premium price at certain times of year or to carry to heavy weights. There advantage will disappear if the demand is for carcase's sub 400kgs.

I wonder who is making most money a farmers buying 50 freisian weanlings and killing at 29-34 months on 70 acres or a suckler Farmer carrying 30 cows and carrying all progney to finish at sub 30 months on 70 acres if it is possible.

Miname

I am suckler farming with some through to beef. Ive just under 100 acres and i still made more than the average industrial wage off the farm and i'm only doing this part time, i'm by no means a genius at this and had taken a loss the previous year but this was by restructuring and by my own choice. Cows cost money to keep yes, but so do calves and weanlings. lads can buy 200kg weanlings and say sure they cost nothing to keep, weigh it up and see how what they cost from there to slaughter. There is potential in every sector and each person should become just as efficient as they can but we need a diverse market not just every clown in the country with a three legged stool. See what happened with all the bulls and all the houses and the house conversations sounded just like the dairying ones going around. fair play its a big investment and commitment and you have to really believe that its going to work but .

Farrell

Allot of good points, as everyone points out, we all (no matter the industry) could have tough times ahead.
With sucklers how many weanling are sold 500kg+ in the mart, with an additional push & cover, would these make the spec?
Selling for less than cost price cannot continue, but that will have a knock on effect to dry stock farmers.

farmingmad10

Do dairy myself & if the price was 30c/l their would still be good money in it. But beef as we're seeing now with the bad price is it viable with poor prices? Is much beef farmers able to make profit still even when price is down.

Miname

Prices in beef arent going to make you rich but theres plenty of lads that can make money at it. There are also plenty of lads who do it for a hobby, let those lads do it for a hobby if they want or the next thing we will be breaking down the profitability of pigeon racing and gaa. The only difference is you cant milk part-time. Call into any mart in the country and you will run into auld lads getting out enjoying themselves and probably one of the few times in a week they might get chatting to someone. If iut keeps them out and about isnt that not profit. Dairying and beef cant be compared on an equal basis and with this there are always going to be lads looking down saying arent we great farmers sure your mans only rooting around with his few cows. He should get into dairy.

Muckit

Miname wrote: »

There are also plenty of lads who do it for a hobby, let those lads do it for a hobby if they want or the next thing we will be breaking down the profitability of pigeon racing and gaa. The only difference is you cant milk part-time.

Lad l know milking 40 cows and working full time. Making about 2500/ha he reckons. I don't know if that's good or bad but shows it can be done.

sawdoubters

when I go to the pub I cant even pick up a girl never mind a cow

farmingmad10

onyerbikepat wrote: »

Everyone says that suckling is ineffecient, but what is the alternative, feeding diary jersey crosses. Come on, look whats happening with dairy bulls at the moment. Factories, we are told, just dont want them.
So are we all supposed to get into dairying. Am I the only one old enough to remember the Butter Mountains. If you increase the supply of anything you get a resulting drop in price. It's a fundamnetal law of economics. Dairying is no different.:(

But shur continental E grade bulls are only making €3.90!! Ha lads mocking Friesans & they only dairy stock & nearly making as much as the U grades. Won't be many friesan bulls around anyways post 2015 with Sexed semen dairy farmer can pick whatever he likes will only need small number of cows to breed his replacement heifers & the rest he can choose bulls whatever breed he wishes. So why would a lad want to keep the cow?

C0N0R

sawdoubters wrote: »

when I go to the pub I cant even pick up a girl never mind a cow

Try dairy farming, hectare hunters love to hear that!

reilig

Panch18 wrote: »

Yeah but that was an absolute bulls##t target with regards to housing - that's more than the UK build every year - a monkey could see that's rubbish.

Milk is completely different, we are selling on the world market and it is that world market which will determine if we have the markets to sell the extra milk produced - if the markets evaporate the price will drop and so will production - if the markets remain strong and increase then we will have no problem increasing production.

Hasn't NZ tripled its milk production since the period of EU quotas?? There is a huge deficit in Ireland from 30 odd years of suppression with regards to production - that 30 years will be made up fro pretty rapidly I think

Where's the guarantee on dairy? When the quotas go, Ireland will have no problem increasing production. So will every other country in the EU. On top of this, every dairy producing country in the world will have the opportunity to increase production. Like the housing target, the Dairy Target is just a number plucked out of the sky based on increasing population. It's a dairy Target not a Dairy Guarantee!

Just like houses, if the market remains strong, there will be money to be made - and as I said, I hope it does. But like the houses, if the market falls down or is oversaturated, then the price will reflect this and this could cause people to lose a lot of money - again, I hope it stays up, but there's no guaarantee.

bbam

reilig wrote: »

Where's the guarantee on dairy? When the quotas go, Ireland will have no problem increasing production. So will every other country in the EU. On top of this, every dairy producing country in the world will have the opportunity to increase production. Like the housing target, the Dairy Target is just a number plucked out of the sky based on increasing population. It's a dairy Target not a Dairy Guarantee!
Just like houses, if the market remains strong, there will be money to be made - and as I said, I hope it does. But like the houses, if the market falls down or is oversaturated, then the price will reflect this and this could cause people to lose a lot of money - again, I hope it stays up, but there's no guaarantee.

Sensible words there rellig.
When all this milk starts flowing in and many of these new entrants are in half million euro debt. What is to stop the producers slashing back the price paid just like the meat plants do?? This is the basic economics of supply and demand.
The 20% deficit between UK beef and Irish beef prices are an example of how it can happen.

Viewtodiefor

reilig wrote: »

Where's the guarantee on dairy? When the quotas go, Ireland will have no problem increasing production. So will every other country in the EU. On top of this, every dairy producing country in the world will have the opportunity to increase production. Like the housing target, the Dairy Target is just a number plucked out of the sky based on increasing population. It's a dairy Target not a Dairy Guarantee!

Just like houses, if the market remains strong, there will be money to be made - and as I said, I hope it does. But like the houses, if the market falls down or is oversaturated, then the price will reflect this and this could cause people to lose a lot of money - again, I hope it stays up, but there's no guaarantee.

What I'm doing here as an existing dairy farmer is increasing cow numbers about 5 per year and improving sheds parlour etc to milk 120% more cows but still going to hold onto beef cattle for the next few years just to see what happens with milk price, have no need or intention of getting into debt to expand just doing it more slowly my aim is to go to full dairy eventually but I think some prudence is necessary, don't get me wrong I think milk prices will hold reasonably well for the most part and am optimistic about dairying but I'd like to see where they are at this time 2016. Maybe I'm too cautious? As for beef I wouldn't like to try living off it but with sfp etc it can work.

ellewood

Miname wrote: »

I am suckler farming with some through to beef. Ive just under 100 acres and i still made more than the average industrial wage off the farm and i'm only doing this part time, i'm by no means a genius at this and had taken a loss the previous year but this was by restructuring and by my own choice. Cows cost money to keep yes, but so do calves and weanlings. lads can buy 200kg weanlings and say sure they cost nothing to keep, weigh it up and see how what they cost from there to slaughter. There is potential in every sector and each person should become just as efficient as they can but we need a diverse market not just every clown in the country with a three legged stool. See what happened with all the bulls and all the houses and the house conversations sounded just like the dairying ones going around. fair play its a big investment and commitment and you have to really believe that its going to work but .

Agree, of course there are lads making money at sucklers

Suckler- weaning is about producing as much as you can from the resources you have
If youre keeping a cow over 600kg for a year costing ya E600 for the year you have to calve that cow at an average of mid febuary and get as much cheap gain from grass for both the cow and calf until weaning, use creep feed to youre advantage before sale and otpimise weight gain all through the year.
Sell that calf as late as you can and as heavy as you can
A Febuary calf should be around the 400kg mark in mid nov and at E2.35/kg
Giving an out put from that cow of E940
Take all costs fixed and varable of E600 from that and youre left with E340 net per cow at 1 cow per acre thats E840 NET/hec (now if youre getting that for what little work in in sucklers as opposed to the work dairy lads put in and probobly with thge day job as well) - not including any sfp etc if youre getting that on top happy days
I know thats easier said than done but that should be the aim

I know everyone is saying dairying is the only game in town but efficient sucklers taking as much info from how dairy lads, to get as much output as possible from as low a cost as possible is where its at.

Panch18

reilig wrote: »

Where's the guarantee on dairy? When the quotas go, Ireland will have no problem increasing production. So will every other country in the EU. On top of this, every dairy producing country in the world will have the opportunity to increase production. Like the housing target, the Dairy Target is just a number plucked out of the sky based on increasing population. It's a dairy Target not a Dairy Guarantee!

Just like houses, if the market remains strong, there will be money to be made - and as I said, I hope it does. But like the houses, if the market falls down or is oversaturated, then the price will reflect this and this could cause people to lose a lot of money - again, I hope it stays up, but there's no guaarantee.

There is no guarantee in dairy - but then again there is no guarantee on anything in business or in life - apart from death and taxes.

But I don't think anybody in dairy is expecting any guarantees. The likelihood of dairy farmers going bust is probably going to increase a lot in the future with the removal of the "safety net" of the quota, and whilst the quota provided stability in dairy for a lot of the time since its inception we have to realise that this stability became much less in recent years - hence the lows of 2009 and the highs of 2013.

So why should EU farmers be hindered by quota when our rivals in NZ, USA etc can increase production as they wish - getting markets and contracts that we should be fighting for but can't because our production is hindered??

As I said earlier the housing market is not a relevant comparison - it was an oversupply in a small country on the edge of Europe - houses cannot be picked up and transported around the world and a house is a house. Milk is totally differnet as it is a global market place, it is a product that has many many uses and can be changed into a huge number of other products. The 2 are completely different

Just to add - there is no doubt that some lads are going to do some mental things with regards to getting into/ expanding in dairy and some will go to the wall - but the same as any free market business if you do something completely stupid then you will probably go bust - what harm

Cavanjack

Miname wrote: »

I am suckler farming with some through to beef. Ive just under 100 acres and i still made more than the average industrial wage off the farm and i'm only doing this part time, i'm by no means a genius at this and had taken a loss the previous year but this was by restructuring and by my own choice. Cows cost money to keep yes, but so do calves and weanlings. lads can buy 200kg weanlings and say sure they cost nothing to keep, weigh it up and see how what they cost from there to slaughter. There is potential in every sector and each person should become just as efficient as they can but we need a diverse market not just every clown in the country with a three legged stool. See what happened with all the bulls and all the houses and the house conversations sounded just like the dairying ones going around. fair play its a big investment and commitment and you have to really believe that its going to work but .

Do ya make more than the industrial wage farming with or without a SFP?

F.D

One thing everyone is forgetting is the people we want to see all this extra milk and expensive meat, cannot afford it, the market for this produce is in the devolping world... so the question is how quick will the markets that can offord our produce get saturated
is anyone in politics thinking about this on there little trips to china and india etc ?

reilig

Cavanjack wrote: »

Do ya make more than the industrial wage farming with or without a SFP?

I know that people are going to slate me for this, but it's a reality for many thousands of farmers in this country. Minimum wage or average industrial wage is unknown. For these people, farming is a way of life.

It puts food on the table, and keeps the way of life going from year to year. It puts enough money together to buy a bit of neighbouring land once in a lifetime. It keeps the thing ticking over and the way of life continued.

For this group of people, they have no concern with making money - so long as they have enough to live from day to day.

I know that people are going to come back at me and say that farming should be treated as a business - but the reality is that for a lot of farmers, farming is their way of life and draws nothing from their business accumen. They are not bringing in enough money to save to make them a millionaire at retirement, nor are they working for a 10% annual expansion.

And they are happy enough!!

There proportion of unhappy farmers is far greater among those who actually have higher incomes. For some, money can be a great cause of stress!

Farmer Pudsey

reilig wrote: »

Where's the guarantee on dairy? When the quotas go, Ireland will have no problem increasing production. So will every other country in the EU. On top of this, every dairy producing country in the world will have the opportunity to increase production. Like the housing target, the Dairy Target is just a number plucked out of the sky based on increasing population. It's a dairy Target not a Dairy Guarantee!

Just like houses, if the market remains strong, there will be money to be made - and as I said, I hope it does. But like the houses, if the market falls down or is oversaturated, then the price will reflect this and this could cause people to lose a lot of money - again, I hope it stays up, but there's no guaarantee.

Dairy market has great potential. Over the last 6-8 years excluding this year the average price of milk was 28c/L, it is climbing to average over 30c/l. The demand for western lifestyle from eastern country's, such as China and India is huge. Accross the EU Ireland is the only country where Milk production will seriously increase. We expect to increase O/P by 50%+ by 2020. However this will only add a fraction of a % to the milk produced in the world.

I saw a figure that if everybody in China had a yogurt was it once a week it would exceed the total Irish Milk supply. Yes there will be failures however those that expand slowly will suceed. Those that intend to expand at an accelrated rate could suffer if either we have a sharp decrease in price or a few bad years for grass supply. However looking at it on the balance it there is opportunities to expand what is a profitable industry.

However this looking at NZ and those that do look at how they produced it 5+ years ago. As world market price has increases there movement away from a totally low cost system has evolved to a medium priced production system. You have to look at what is sustainable on your farm.

However suckler farming is not sustainable for many producers. Every body cannot produce a calf worth 900-1000 euro stocked at 1 cow to the acre. That is up in the 250kg/organic nitrogen /HA I think. Most suckler farmers are stocked at 1 cow/HA or there abouts producing an average o/p of below 700/HA

The other thing about suckler production is the trend towards smaller carcase weight by factory's between this and the reduced export price of weanlings this will reduce value of o/p over the next 1-2 years. On the other hand the expansion of dairying as it evolves will lead to a greater supply of calves and cull cows, which will lead to a reduction in the price of these. This may well lead to increases beef O/P that is sustainable.

Farrell

farmingmad10 wrote: »

But shur continental E grade bulls are only making €3.90!! Ha lads mocking Friesans & they only dairy stock & nearly making as much as the U grades. Won't be many friesan bulls around anyways post 2015 with Sexed semen dairy farmer can pick whatever he likes will only need small number of cows to breed his replacement heifers & the rest he can choose bulls whatever breed he wishes. So why would a lad want to keep the cow?

True, Sexed Semen should be a game changer.
In Dairying the Cow is the Business the calf is the profit (well in theory anyway). How often have we heard of big suckler cows struggling to calve brutes of contintental calves, with occassional sections & Paralysis, what contintental bull would a dairy man use to ensure no trouble to the cow (every day she's recovering is income lost).
There is need for every enterprise in the farming industary, but we all need to work together, instead of against each other

Farrell

F.D wrote: »

One thing everyone is forgetting is the people we want to see all this extra milk and expensive meat, cannot afford it, the market for this produce is in the devolping world... so the question is how quick will the markets that can offord our produce get saturated
is anyone in politics thinking about this on there little trips to china and india etc ?

Fair point

bbam

China is an interesting one as regards a potential market....

So definitely a proportion of the population has more disposable income and are interested in emulating a more western lifestyle..

Companies see this as a green light to flood China with produce, a good business model if you were supplying a regular capatalist country. But people seem to forget that its a communist country and there is no sign that will end.

Yes there is the appearance of a capitalist country if you stroll round Beijing or Dalian or Shanghai, with their McDonnalds and KFC's appearing on every corner. But this is "allowed" to develop in a very controlled manner by the government to essentially appease the population so they remain under control, on my last trip there it was best described to me by a local as "communism light".

But companies would do well to remember that the government will not stand by and allow a full free market develop, because a truly free market will be out of their control - and that aint happening anytime soon.

Thus we see the Chinese government in farming swathes of Africa, the reason is food security for their population, but a food security that they can control, thus keeping their grip on the masses.

So I don't see China becoming the mass consumer of all world goods in the way its portrait to us in the press. Yes they will come and look at our farms, smile politely when we name calves after their leaders, if nothing they are uber-polite in business. But they will return to China and find a way to produce beef in a similar manner close to China and under their control and on their terms and not ours.

onyerbikepat

No doubt that the abolition of milk quotas going will be a great thing for Ireland. The shutters came down in milk production at a time when Ireland was only starting to get going. What is really intriguing though, is what kind of ripple effect will all this have on other sectors of farming. There are a lot of biggish farms circa the 100 to 150 acres that will probably switch over to dairying. A lot of these are currently in beef finishing. Will that lead to a drop in the demand for suckler weanlings.
At the same time, will prices will drop some bit and beef cross calves from the dairy herds will now start to look like a welcome income.
Interesting times alright.

The goverenment should seriously look at the issue of farm fragmentation. A reshuffle of land parcels here and there could set up a few viable dairy farms in the future. A little bit of thinking outside the box wouldnt go amiss here.

larthehar

I might as well have my two-pence on the topic!

What I see is that we are currently operating a fine balance of interdependent sectors;
-outputs of tillage affects the inputs into beef and dairy
-the availability of dairy beef will affect the price of cont. beef
-demands on beef and dairy farms for fert/sprays etc will affect tilllage

Any major shift in any of these sectors will cause an imbalance in the over all system..
A huge number of high input/high output dairy sector entrants will drive up the demand for inputs (affecting tillage inputs and outputs), flood the market with dairy bull by-product (affecting beef inputs and outputs).

To give an example, there was a big shift away from sheep a couple of years ago because the market was bad, demand hadn't changed, hence cast ewes were making €100+ the following year!

IMO, sexed semen, factory demands for cont beef and cost of inputs will dictate the the future of cont beef in this country!!